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Articles 1 - 6 of 6
Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics
The Role Of Macroeconomic, Policy, And Forecaster Uncertainty In Forecast Dispersion, You Li, Anthony S. Tay
The Role Of Macroeconomic, Policy, And Forecaster Uncertainty In Forecast Dispersion, You Li, Anthony S. Tay
Research Collection School Of Economics
We explore the role of uncertainty in explaining dispersion in professional forecasters’ density forecasts of real output growth and inflation. We consider three separate notions of uncertainty: general macroeconomic uncertainty (the fact that macroeconomic variables are easier to forecast at some times than at others), policy uncertainty, and forecaster uncertainty. We find that dispersion in individual density forecasts is related to overall macroeconomic uncertainty and policy uncertainty, while forecaster uncertainty (which we define as the average in the uncertainty expressed by individual forecasters) appears to have little role in forecast dispersion.
Living With Robots: Automation And Income Inequality In The 21st Century, Michael Dickson
Living With Robots: Automation And Income Inequality In The 21st Century, Michael Dickson
Global Honors Theses
The increasingly automated nature of manufacturing and service industries poses difficulties a majority of the world’s employed population. This creates an automative industrial revolution driven by advanced computing systems and increasingly independent robotic technologies. Losing employment in industrial revolutions such as this one poses threats to the established population. The replacement of obsolete work with new, more valuable work has not been observed in this case, presenting the problem of extreme unemployment to the nations of the world that was not a problem in past industrial revolutions. In order to counter the effects of mass unemployment, several groups have proposed …
Considerations For Mexican Immigration Policy Reform: How Motivations To Migrate Align With U.S. And Mexican Macroeconomic Conditions, Alix Naugler
Undergraduate Honors Theses
The nationalistic rhetoric adopted by the newly-elected president’s administration along with the public’s climaxing anti-immigrant hysteria has recently forced Mexican immigration intervention to the top of the U.S. agenda. Misconceptions regarding Mexicans’ role in stealing jobs, threatening cultural and ethnic traditions, and straining public welfare, educational, and healthcare resources have spurred a fear among the American people. This politically-fabricated “schizophrenia” has ceased the political and economic collaboration between the two nations and has resulted in the unilateral militarization of the U.S.-Mexico border. In this evaluation of the U.S. government’s immigration policies, the proposed economic theories related to Mexicans’ motivations in …
Monetary Policy And Energy Price Shocks, Bao Tan Huynh
Monetary Policy And Energy Price Shocks, Bao Tan Huynh
Research Collection School Of Economics
A New Keynesian framework with endogenous energy production is proposed to investigate the role of monetary policy in addressing disturbances in energy markets. The novelty of the model lies in the endogenous production of energy with convex costs, explicit modeling of goods with different degrees of energy-dependency and sectoral price rigidities. Our analyses prescribe the desirable monetary responses to four types of energy price shocks, highlighting the distinct characteristics of each shock and affirming the need for diverse policy considerations. We also found several points of divergence in relation to previous studies on addressing energy supply shocks. In addition, we …
Modernization Losers, Political Winners: Assessing The Role Of The Declining Position Of Labor In Right-Wing Electoral Successes Across Western Europe, Eva-Marie C. Quinones
Modernization Losers, Political Winners: Assessing The Role Of The Declining Position Of Labor In Right-Wing Electoral Successes Across Western Europe, Eva-Marie C. Quinones
Senior Projects Spring 2017
This Senior Project advances the modernization losers thesis, wherein the electoral successes of the far right in Western Europe are attributable to neoliberal fiscal policy, labor market shifts, and the institutional structure of the euro. Building on an existing body of literature that primarily assesses voting behavior through survey research, this paper assesses the relationship between right-wing electoral successes and the socioeconomic status of semi-skilled, blue-collar laborers thought to comprise the core voting base of extreme right parties, by using panel data at the national and provincial levels to answer the question, “To what extent has the declining position of …
The Political Economy Of State-Level Emergency Unemployment Relief: The Case Of The New York Tera, 1931-37, Hasani J. Gunn
The Political Economy Of State-Level Emergency Unemployment Relief: The Case Of The New York Tera, 1931-37, Hasani J. Gunn
Senior Projects Fall 2017
Governor Franklin D. Roosevelt created The New York State Temporary Emergency Relief Administration (TERA) in response to the Great Depression. Operating from 1931-37, this state-level jobs-and-income style policy featured comprehensive in-kind assistance, “home relief,” and emergency unemployment relief, “work relief.” Though the program is fascinating just in this respect, it has been systematically overshadowed by the alphabet soup of New Deal era relief policies. We revisit the TERA to shed light on what it offered to the people of NY and, overall, what it offered to the economy. We find significant evidence that the program stabilized the State economy by …