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Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics
Alternative Estimators Of Cointegrating Parameters In Models With Non-Stationary Data: An Application To Us Export Demand, James Forest, Paul Turner
Alternative Estimators Of Cointegrating Parameters In Models With Non-Stationary Data: An Application To Us Export Demand, James Forest, Paul Turner
James J Forest
This paper presents Monte Carlo simulations which compare the empirical performance of two alternative single equation estimators of the equilibrium parameters in a dynamic relationship. The estimators considered are Stock and Watson’s dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimator and Bewley’s transformation of the general autoregressive distributed lag model. The results indicate that the Bewley transformation produces a lower mean-square error as well as superior serial correlation properties even with lower truncation lags for the lagged variables included in the estimation equation. An application is then provided which examines the nature of the equilibrium relationship between aggregate US exports, world trade …
The Effect Of Treasury Auction Announcements On Interest Rates: 1990-1999, James Forest
The Effect Of Treasury Auction Announcements On Interest Rates: 1990-1999, James Forest
James J Forest
In this study we examine the secondary-market response of U.S. Treasury interest rates to both the release of pre-auction auction supply announcements and post-auction details from U.S. Treasury auctions during the period of the 1990s. Rate changes are found to differ significantly on auction days. Pre-auction announcements of auction volumes are shown to affect rates significantly, in contrast with the findings of Wachtel and Young (1987) with respect to deficit announcements. We find that surprises in the release of bid-to-cover ratios affect Treasury rates significantly, while the surprises in the volume of noncompetitive bids appears to have little affect on …
A High-Frequency Analysis Of Trading Activity In The Corporate Bond Market: Do Macro Announcements Drive Activity?, James Forest, Brian Berry
A High-Frequency Analysis Of Trading Activity In The Corporate Bond Market: Do Macro Announcements Drive Activity?, James Forest, Brian Berry
James J Forest
Herein we explore whether macroeconomic announcements are a driving factor in the trading activity of US corporate bond market. Prior studies have documented a strong response of bond returns and interest rates to surprises in macroeconomic data in the US Treasury and Treasury futures markets. Likewise, studies have also documented that trading activity changes sharply, based on informational impulses provided by the release of economic data. We contribute to the existing literature by examining how both daily and intraday measures of trading activity are impacted by surprises in macro data. Our main findings are that the thinly-traded market for corporate …