Macroeconomics Commons^™

The Urban Density Premium Across Establishments, R. Jason Faberman, Matthew Freedman

Matthew Freedman

Designing Monetary Policy Committees, Volker Hahn

Volker Hahn

Durable Goods, Financial Frictions, And Business Cycles In Emerging Economies, Fernando Álvarez-Parra, Luis Brandao Marques, Manuel Toledo

Manuel E Toledo

Business cycles in emerging economies display very volatile consumption and strongly countercyclical trade balance. We show that aggregate consumption in these economies is not more volatile than output once durables are accounted for. Then, we present and estimate a real business cycles model for a small open economy that accounts for this empirical observation. Our results show that the role of permanent shocks to aggregate productivity in explaining cyclical fluctuations in emerging economies is considerably lower than previously documented. Moreover, we find that financial frictions are crucial to explain some key business cycle properties of these economies.

Principles Of Macroeconomics: Activist Vs. Austerity Policies, Howard Sherman, Mike Meeropol

HOWARD J SHERMAN

This is an economics textbook comparing Neoclassical economic theories with Progressive economic theories, written in extremely accessible prose.

The Long Term Impact Of The 2001 And 2003 Tax Cut Policies On Consumer Spending, Fatoumata Diarrassouba

Fatoumata Diarrassouba

No abstract provided.

Alternative Estimators Of Cointegrating Parameters In Models With Non-Stationary Data: An Application To Us Export Demand, James Forest, Paul Turner

James J Forest

This paper presents Monte Carlo simulations which compare the empirical performance of two alternative single equation estimators of the equilibrium parameters in a dynamic relationship. The estimators considered are Stock and Watson’s dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimator and Bewley’s transformation of the general autoregressive distributed lag model. The results indicate that the Bewley transformation produces a lower mean-square error as well as superior serial correlation properties even with lower truncation lags for the lagged variables included in the estimation equation. An application is then provided which examines the nature of the equilibrium relationship between aggregate US exports, world trade …

Decomposing The Sources Of Earnings Inequality: Assessing The Role Of Reallocation, Fredrik Andersson, Elizabeth Davis, Matthew Freedman, Julia Lane, Brian Mccall, L. Kristin Sandusky

Matthew Freedman

Weak-Form Market Efficiency And Calendar Anomalies For Eastern Europe Equity Markets, Francesco Guidi, Rakesh Gupta, Suneel Maheshwari

Suneel K. Maheshwari

No abstract provided.

The Effect Of Treasury Auction Announcements On Interest Rates: 1990-1999, James Forest

James J Forest

In this study we examine the secondary-market response of U.S. Treasury interest rates to both the release of pre-auction auction supply announcements and post-auction details from U.S. Treasury auctions during the period of the 1990s. Rate changes are found to differ significantly on auction days. Pre-auction announcements of auction volumes are shown to affect rates significantly, in contrast with the findings of Wachtel and Young (1987) with respect to deficit announcements. We find that surprises in the release of bid-to-cover ratios affect Treasury rates significantly, while the surprises in the volume of noncompetitive bids appears to have little affect on …

Dynamics Of The Current Crisis, Howard Sherman, Mike Meeropol

HOWARD J SHERMAN

Sometimes, it is useful to take a step back and remind ourselves why recessions occur and why recoveries usually follow shortly thereafter. Having done that, we can try to understand the causes of far more serious recessions and what must be done to recover. The authors point out how such severe recessions, including the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009, differ profoundly from most others

A High-Frequency Analysis Of Trading Activity In The Corporate Bond Market: Do Macro Announcements Drive Activity?, James Forest, Brian Berry

James J Forest

Herein we explore whether macroeconomic announcements are a driving factor in the trading activity of US corporate bond market. Prior studies have documented a strong response of bond returns and interest rates to surprises in macroeconomic data in the US Treasury and Treasury futures markets. Likewise, studies have also documented that trading activity changes sharply, based on informational impulses provided by the release of economic data. We contribute to the existing literature by examining how both daily and intraday measures of trading activity are impacted by surprises in macro data. Our main findings are that the thinly-traded market for corporate …

The Myth Behind Lowering Capital-Gains Taxes, Louis Johnston

Louis D. Johnston

Capital gains taxation has been in the news. Contrary to popular belief, lower capital gains taxes do not spur economic growth.

Midday (Last Eichten Broadcast), Louis Johnston

Louis D. Johnston

Chris Farrell and I discussed the economic situation with Gary Eichten. This was Gary's next-to-last show; we were the warm-up act for Governor Dayton.

Women’S Decision Making: A Contextual Assessment, Safdar Khan

Safdar Khan

No abstract provided.

On The Intergenerational Persistence Of Work Hours, Manuel Toledo

Manuel E Toledo

This paper studies the intergenerational persistence of work hours. In particular, I look at the correlation of hours between fathers and sons in the U.S. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I find a strong persistence in the permanent component of hours worked. I investigate the extent this correlation is explained by (i) persistence in wages, (ii) correlation in leisure preferences, and (iii) intergenerational wealth transfers. I also examine the role of work effort on the transmission of earnings across generations. To this end I provide a quantitative model of intergenerational transmission of human capital and wealth.

Does Real Exchange Rate Volatility Affect Foreign Direct Investment? Evidence From Four Developed Countries, Abdur Chowdhury, Mark Wheeler

Abdur R. Chowdhury

This study examines the impact of shocks to exchange rate uncertainty (volatility) on foreign direct investment (FDI) in Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The analysis is conducted using vector autoregressive models that contain the price level, real output, the real exchange rate, the volatility of the real exchange rate, the interest rate, and FDI. The results from variance decompositions yield public policy implications. In Canada, Japan, and the United States, innovations to exchange rate uncertainty explain significant portions of the forecast error variance in FDI at longer time horizons. The impulse response functions indicate that, to …

Decomposing Consumer Wealth Effects: Evidence On The Role Of Real Estate Assets Following The Wealth Cycle Of 1990-2002, Michael Donihue, Andriy Avramenko

Michael R Donihue

During the period from 1990 to 2002, U.S. households experienced a dramatic wealth cycle, induced by a 369 percent appreciation in the value of real per capita liquid stock-market assets, followed by a 55 percent decline. However, despite predictions at the time by some analysts relying on life-cycle models of consumption, consumer spending in real terms continued to rise throughout this period. Using data that include the period from 1990 to 2005, traditional approaches to estimating macroeconomic wealth effects on consumption confront two puzzles: (i) econometric evidence of a stable cointegrating relationship among consumption, income, and wealth is weak at …

Inflation Monitor, Muhammad Arby, Fida Hussain, Safdar Khan

Safdar Khan

Extract:
Although inflationary pressures persisted in the economy for the second year in a row, the headline inflation fell to 7.6 percent year-on-year in June 2006 that was 1 percentage point less than inflation in corresponding month last year.1 The inflation containment was more visible in the last six months of FY06 as compared to first six months (Jul 05 to Dec 05): the average CPI inflation during the first half of the year was 8.4 percent which declined to 7.4 percent in the second half primarily due to fall in food inflation. Inflation measured by sensitive price indicator also …

Dynamics Of Energy Consumption, Safdar Khan

Safdar Khan

Extract:
Dynamics of Energy Consumption Pakistan has been facing severe imbalances in energy demand and supply for the last couple of decades. During early 1980s domestic supply of energy was fulfilling almost 86 percent of total domestic energy demand; a gap of 14 percent was being filled by imports. However, the demand – supply gap started increasing since then and reached to almost 47 percent by the year 2000 (see Figure S2.1).

Fdi And Growth: What Causes What?, Abdur Chowdhury, George Mavrotas

Abdur R. Chowdhury

This paper examines the causal relationship between FDI and economic growth by using an innovative econometric methodology to study the direction of causality between the two variables. We apply our methodology, based on the Toda-Yamamoto test for causality, to time-series data covering the period 1969–2000 for three developing countries, namely Chile, Malaysia and Thailand, all of them major recipients of FDI with a different history of macroeconomic episodes, policy regimes and growth patterns. Our empirical findings clearly suggest that it is GDP that causes FDI in the case of Chile and not vice versa, while for both Malaysia and Thailand, …

Economic Growth, Saving And Investment, Safdar Khan

Safdar Khan

Extract:
Despite an evident slowdown in major economies around the global amidst a sustained rise in international oil prices, the domestic economy surpassed its growth target by a wide margin for the third consecutive year, witnessing a growth rate of 8.4 percent in FY05, the highest during the last two decades (see Figure 2.1 & 2.2).

Macroeconomic And Financial Sector Comparison With Saarc And Asean Countries, Safdar Khan

Safdar Khan

Extract:
Two distinct regional associations, SAARC and ASEAN, comprise over seventeen different economies of Asia. These economies differ from each other in terms of their age, size and economic performance. However, some comparisons can be drawn between these intra-regional economies on the basis of economic and financial performance for a uniform period of observation, spanning from 1990 to 2003.1 This chapter discusses the financial sector indicators of the SAARC and ASEAN countries under the framework of macroeconomic performance, with the objective of assessing the level of Pakistan’s performance in comparison with these countries.

Financial Sector Deepening And Economic Growth In Pakistan, Safdar Khan

Safdar Khan

No abstract provided.

Practical Issues In Adopting Inflation Targeting In Croatia, Leo Bonato

Leo Bonato

No abstract provided.

Reclaiming Evolution: A Marxist-Institutionalist Dialogue On Social Change, Howard Sherman, William Dugger

HOWARD J SHERMAN

In this unique book, Howard Sherman and William M.Dugger engage in a dialogue on social evolution from Institutionalist and Marxist perspectives, each representing one side. It is their intention to explore the way society develops using the equally radical, but very different approaches of Thorstein Veblen and Karl Marx. The dialogue proceeds with a series of questions - each answered from the two perspectives. Beginning with an intellectual history and definition, Reclaiming Evolution examines social evolution in terms of causal elements; economic relations, technology, enabling myth and political relations, and social processes; structural change, social tension and social conflict. It …

The Business Cycle: Growth And Crisis In Capitalism, Howard Sherman

HOWARD J SHERMAN

Are the recurring recessions of the capitalist world merely short-term adjustments to changing economic circumstances in a system that tends, in general, toward equilibrium? In this accessible study of the business cycle, Howard Sherman makes a powerful case that recessions and painful involuntary unemployment are endogenous to capitalism. Drawing especially on the work of Wesley Clair Mitchell, Karl Marx, and John M. Keynes, Sherman explains why the nature of the business cycle produces serious economic loss and misery during its contraction phase, just as it produces growth in its expansion phase.

Comparing Economic Systems: A Political-Economic Approach, Howard Sherman

HOWARD J SHERMAN

No abstract provided.