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Articles 151 - 180 of 220
Full-Text Articles in International Economics
Why Was The Arab World Poised For Revolution? Schooling, Economic Opportunities, And The Arab Spring, Filipe R. Campante, Davin Chor
Why Was The Arab World Poised For Revolution? Schooling, Economic Opportunities, And The Arab Spring, Filipe R. Campante, Davin Chor
Research Collection School Of Economics
What underlying long-term conditions set the stage for the Arab Spring? In recent decades, the Arab region has been characterized by an expansion in schooling coupled with weak labor market conditions. This pattern is especially pronounced in those countries that saw significant upheaval during the first year of the Arab Spring uprisings. We argue that the lack of adequate economic opportunities for an increasingly educated populace can help us understand episodes of regime instability such as the Arab Spring.
Risk And The Technology Content Of Fdi: A Dynamic Model, Pao Li Chang, Chia-Hui Lu
Risk And The Technology Content Of Fdi: A Dynamic Model, Pao Li Chang, Chia-Hui Lu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper incorporates risk into the FDI decisions of firms. The risk of FDI failure increases with the gap between the South's technology frontier and the technology complexity of a firm's product. This leads to a double-crossing sorting pattern of FDI—firms of intermediate technology levels are more likely than others to undertake FDI. It is with the attempt to relax the upper bound of the technology content of FDI, we argue, that many FDI policies are created. The theory's predictions are consistent with the empirical patterns of FDI in China by US and Taiwanese manufacturing firms.
In Support Of The Trips Agreement, Amanda Jakobsson, Paul S. Segerstrom
In Support Of The Trips Agreement, Amanda Jakobsson, Paul S. Segerstrom
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper challenges the conventional wisdom that the TRIPs agreement is bad for developing countries. We present a dynamic general equilibrium model of North-South trade that allows us to study the implications of stronger intellectual property rights (IPR) protection and simultaneous trade liberalization. In our model, stronger IPR protection in the South (TRIPs) leads to more innovation in the North, more technology transfer to the South and higher long-run southern consumer welfare. The South also benefits from trade liberalization but the welfare gains from TRIPs are considerably larger.
Optimal International Agreement And Treatment Of Domestic Subsidy, Gea M. Lee
Optimal International Agreement And Treatment Of Domestic Subsidy, Gea M. Lee
Research Collection School Of Economics
We investigate how a domestic subsidy is treated in an international agreement, when a government, having incentive to use its domestic subsidy as a means of import protection, can disguise its protective use of subsidy as a legitimate intervention with which to address a market imperfection. We show that any optimal agreement, as opposed to the conventional message of the targeting principle, restricts the home government’s freedom to select its domestic subsidy in order to increase the market-access level for foreign exporters. Our finding suggests that a proper restriction on domestic subsidy is somewhere between GATT and WTO rules.
Beneath And Beyond The Chinese Miracle, Singapore Management University
Beneath And Beyond The Chinese Miracle, Singapore Management University
Perspectives@SMU
China’s rapid economic progress from an impoverished communist state to the world’s second largest economy within just three decades has enthralled many economists. That the country shifted from the classical centrally-planned command economy to one espousing free market practices while maintaining communist rule, has all given rise to this question: What exactly is the China model? Is it the hybrid of innovative state ownership and tight political control? Or is the rapid growth the result of liberal economic and political reforms?
International Capital Flows With Limited Commitment And Incomplete Markets, Jürgen Von Hagen, Haiping Zhang
International Capital Flows With Limited Commitment And Incomplete Markets, Jürgen Von Hagen, Haiping Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
Recent literature has proposed two alternative types of financial frictions, i.e., limited commitment and incomplete markets, to explain the patterns of international capital flows between developed and developing countries observed in the past two decades. This paper integrates both types of frictions into a two-country overlapping-generations framework to facilitate a direct comparison of their effects. In our model, limited commitment distorts the investment made by agents with different productivity, which creates a wedge between the interest rates on equity capital vs. credit capital; while incomplete markets distort the investment among projects with different riskiness, which creates a wedge between the …
Watching The Clock: Challenges For The World's Fastest Growing Economies, Singapore Management University
Watching The Clock: Challenges For The World's Fastest Growing Economies, Singapore Management University
Perspectives@SMU
Double-digit economic growths that are set to propel it to the second biggest economy in the world, overtaking Japan, has made people see China’s rise as remarkable. So confident are the pundits that they have dubbed this to be an “Asian century” and many more are urging for the world to learn Chinese in anticipation of a new world order. But, to renowned historian Wang Gungwu, this fast-paced growth associated with China is not something that is peculiar to the Asian giant only.
The Informal Economy And Bribery In North Korea, Byung-Yeon Kim, Yumi Koh
The Informal Economy And Bribery In North Korea, Byung-Yeon Kim, Yumi Koh
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper uses the data of 227 North Korean refugees who have settled in South Korea to investigate the relationship between working in the informal economy (market component of the economy) and bribe-giving, and between bribe-giving and the number of hours worked in the formal sector (planned component of the economy). The first relationship is positive, and the second relationship is negative. These results imply that widespread informal economy activities in North Korea have been undermining the socialist regime through bribery.
The Wto Trade Effect, Pao Li Chang, Myoung-Jae Lee
The Wto Trade Effect, Pao Li Chang, Myoung-Jae Lee
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper re-examines the GATT/WTO membership effect on bilateral trade flows, using nonparametric methods including pair-matching, permutation tests, and a Rosenbaum (2002) sensitivity analysis. Together, these methods provide an estimation framework that is robust to misspecification bias, allows general forms of heterogeneous membership effects, and addresses potential hidden selection bias. This is in contrast to most conventional parametric studies on this issue. Our results suggest large GATT/WTO trade-promoting effects that are robust to various restricted matching criteria, alternative GATT/WTO indicators, non-random incidence of positive trade flows, inclusion of multilateral resistance terms, and different matching methodologies.
Risk And The Technology Content Of Fdi: A Dynamic Model, Pao Li Chang, Chia-Hui Lu
Risk And The Technology Content Of Fdi: A Dynamic Model, Pao Li Chang, Chia-Hui Lu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper incorporates risk into the FDI decisions of firms. The risk of FDI failure increases with the gap between the South's technology frontier and the technology complexity of a firm's product. This leads to a double-crossing sorting pattern of FDI firms of intermediate technology levels are more likely than others to undertake FDI. It is with the attempt to relax the upper bound of the technology content of FDI, we argue, that many FDI policies are created. The theory's predictions are consistent with the empirical pattern of FDI in China by US and Taiwanese manufacturing firms.
Explosive Behavior In The 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?, Peter C. B. Phillips, Yangru Wu, Jun Yu
Explosive Behavior In The 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?, Peter C. B. Phillips, Yangru Wu, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
A recursive test procedure is suggested that provides a mechanism for testing explosive behavior, date stamping the origination and collapse of economic exuberance, and providing valid confidence intervals for explosive growth rates. The method involves the recursive implementation of a right-side unit root test and a sup test, both of which are easy to use in practical applications, and some new limit theory for mildly explosive processes. The test procedure is shown to have discriminatory power in detecting periodically collapsing bubbles, thereby overcoming a weakness in earlier applications of unit root tests for economic bubbles. An empirical application to the …
Teaching Rebels, Filip Campante, Davin Chor
Teaching Rebels, Filip Campante, Davin Chor
Research Collection School Of Economics
No abstract provided.
How Predictable Is The Chinese Stock Market?, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu, David Rapach, Jack K. Strauss, Guofu Zhou
How Predictable Is The Chinese Stock Market?, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu, David Rapach, Jack K. Strauss, Guofu Zhou
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We analyze return predictability for the Chinese stock market index and its components sorted on industry, size, book-to-market and ownership concentration, with both in-sample and out-of-sample tests. We find significant predictability. Among industry portfolios, Finance and insurance, Real estate, and Manufacturing exhibit the most predictability, while small-cap, low book-to-market ratio and low ownership concentration firms also display considerable predictability. The conditional CAPM model largely accounts for component predictability, and industry concentration significantly explain differences in return predictability across industries, consistent with the information-flow frictions emphasized by Hong, Torous, and Valkanov (2007).
Effects Of Free Trade Areas In Trade Promotion: Gravity Model Approach, Mona Jit Mui Lim
Effects Of Free Trade Areas In Trade Promotion: Gravity Model Approach, Mona Jit Mui Lim
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
Since the early 1990s, the world has seen a proliferation of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). One of the key objectives of FTAs is to expand trade between or amongst its signatories. This study explores the intra-FTA and extra-FTA trade expansion capability of 3 types of FTA: North-North FTA (European Union (EU)-15 as a representative), North-South FTA (North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as a representative) and South-South FTA (Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN ) Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) as a representative). The study made an attempt to address the spread of such FTA-led trade expansion amongst the members and …
Trade And Divergence In Education Systems, Pao Li Chang, Fali Huang
Trade And Divergence In Education Systems, Pao Li Chang, Fali Huang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper presents a theory on the endogenous choice of a country's education policy and the two-way causal relationship between trade and education systems. The setting of a country's education system determines its talent distribution and comparative advantage in trade; the possibility of trade by raising the returns to the sector of comparative advantage in turn induces countries to further diferentiate their education systems and reinforces the initial pattern of comparative advantage. Specifically, the Nash equilibrium choice of education systems by two countries interacting strategically are necessarily more divergent than their autarky choices, although the difference is still less than …
The Wto Trade Effect, Pao Li Chang, Myoung-Jae Lee
The Wto Trade Effect, Pao Li Chang, Myoung-Jae Lee
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper reexamines the GATT/WTO membership effect on bilateral trade flows, using nonparametric methods including pair-matching, permutation tests, and a Rosenbaum (2002) sensitivity analysis. Together, these methods provide an estimation framework that is robust to misspecification biases, allows general forms of heterogeneous treatment effects, and addresses potential hidden selection biases. This is in contrast to most conventional parametric studies on this issue. Our results suggest large GATT/WTO trade-promoting effects, robust to various restricted matching criteria, alternative indicators for GATT/WTO involvement, different matching methodologies, non-random incidence of positive trade flows, and inclusion of multilateral resistance terms.
Unpacking Sources Of Comparative Advantage: A Quantitative Approach, Davin Chor
Unpacking Sources Of Comparative Advantage: A Quantitative Approach, Davin Chor
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper develops an approach for quantifying the importance of different sources of comparative advantage, by extending the Eaton and Kortum (2002) model to predict industry trade flows. In this framework, comparative advantage is determined by the interaction of country and industry characteristics, with countries specializing in industries whose production needs they can best meet with their factor endowments and institutional strengths. I estimate the model parameters using: (i) OLS; and (ii) a simulated method of moments procedure that accounts for the prevalence of zeros in the bilateral trade data. I apply the model to explore various quantitative questions, such …
An Asian Response To International Financial Reforms, Hoe Ee Khor, Kim Song Tan
An Asian Response To International Financial Reforms, Hoe Ee Khor, Kim Song Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
Asia has emerged as a much more important player in the global economy after the recent financial crisis. Together with other emerging market economies, Asia is expected to be a key driver for global economic growth in the near to medium term. Along with this, there is a rising chorus for an “Asian approach” to financial reforms in the region and internationally. There are also calls for Asia to play a bigger role in designing the new architecture for the global financial system.
International Capital Flows And Aggregate Output, Jurgen Von Hagen, Haiping Zhang
International Capital Flows And Aggregate Output, Jurgen Von Hagen, Haiping Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We develop a tractable multi-country overlapping-generations model and show that cross-country differences in financial development explain three recent empirical patterns of international capital flows. Domestic financial frictions in our model distort interest rates and aggregate output in the less financially developed countries. International capital flows help ameliorate the two distortions. International flows of financial capital and foreign direct investment affect aggregate output in each country directly through affecting the size of aggregate investment. In addition, they affect aggregate output indirectly through affecting the composition of aggregate investment and the size of aggregate savings. Under certain conditions, the indirect effects may …
Using Financial Econometrics To Measure Risk, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu, Eric Ghysels
Using Financial Econometrics To Measure Risk, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu, Eric Ghysels
Research Collection School Of Economics
No abstract provided.
Off The Cliff And Back? Credit Conditions And International Trade During The Global Financial Crisis, Davin Chor, Kalina Manova
Off The Cliff And Back? Credit Conditions And International Trade During The Global Financial Crisis, Davin Chor, Kalina Manova
Research Collection School Of Economics
We study the collapse of international trade flows during the global financial crisis using detailed data on monthly US imports. We show that credit conditions were an important channel through which the crisis affected trade volumes, by exploiting the variation in the cost of capital across countries and over time, as well as the variation in financial vulnerability across sectors. Countries with higher interbank rates and thus tighter credit markets exported less to the US during the peak of the crisis. This effect was especially pronounced in sectors that require extensive external financing, have limited access to trade credit, or …
Financial Development And The Patterns Of International Capital Flows, Jurgen Von Hagen, Haiping Zhang
Financial Development And The Patterns Of International Capital Flows, Jurgen Von Hagen, Haiping Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We develop a tractable, two-country, overlapping-generations model and show that cross-country differences in financial development can explain three recent empirical patterns of international capital flows: Financial capital flows from relatively poor to relatively rich countries while foreign direct investment flows in the opposite direction; net capital flows go from poor to rich countries; despite its negative net international investment position, the US receives a positive net international investment income. We also explore the welfare and distributional effects of international capital flows and show that the direction of capital flows may change along the convergence process of a developing country. Matsuyama …
International Capital Flows And World Output Gains, Jurgen Von Hagen, Haiping Zhang
International Capital Flows And World Output Gains, Jurgen Von Hagen, Haiping Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We develop a two-country overlapping-generations model with domestic financial frictions and show that cross-country differences in financial development explain three recent patterns of international capital flows. In our model, domestic financial frictions distort the interest rates and production efficiency in the less financially developed country. Capital flows not only lead to cross-country resource reallocation, but also trigger within-country resource reallocation among firms. From the efficiency perspective, full capital mobility raises the world output higher than under international financial autarky. If the mobility of either financial capital or foreign direct investment is restricted, the world output may be lower.
Risk, Learning, And The Technology Content Of Fdi: A Dynamic Model, Pao Li Chang, Chia-Hui Lu
Risk, Learning, And The Technology Content Of Fdi: A Dynamic Model, Pao Li Chang, Chia-Hui Lu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper builds a dynamic model of catching up to examine the policy stance of developing countries in attracting inward FDI. We show that the observably evident risk of FDI failure sets a minimum threshold on the South's technology capacity and furthermore creates a limit on the technology content of inward FDI. We provide economic foundations for the determinants of the FDI risk and formalize how the risk factor evolves over time as the South moves up its technology ladder. The model offers an insightful and tractable framework for empirical studies with a dynamic content, and reconciles many relevant empirical …
Tunneling Through Intercorporate Loans: The China Experience, Guohua Jiang, Charles M. C. Lee, Heng Yue
Tunneling Through Intercorporate Loans: The China Experience, Guohua Jiang, Charles M. C. Lee, Heng Yue
Research Collection School of Accountancy
This study investigates a particularly brazen form of corporate abuse, in which controlling shareholders use intercorporate loans to siphon billions of RMB from hundreds of Chinese listed companies during the 1996 to 2006 period. We document the nature and extent of these transactions, evaluate their economic consequences, examine factors that affect their cross-sectional severity, and report on the mitigating roles of auditors, institutional investors, and regulators. Collectively, our findings shed light on the severity of the minority shareholder expropriation problem in China, as well as the relative efficacy of various legal and extra-legal governance mechanisms in that country.
Trade, Growth And Increasing Returns To Infrastructure: The Role Of The Sophisticated Monopolist, Ashok S. Guha, Brishti Guha
Trade, Growth And Increasing Returns To Infrastructure: The Role Of The Sophisticated Monopolist, Ashok S. Guha, Brishti Guha
Research Collection School Of Economics
Equilibrium in international trade with increasing returns in infrastructure depends on whether the infrastructure provider is “naïve” or sophisticated. A monopolist produces infrastructure under decreasing cost using fixed equipment. Unlike similar work, we derive a unique closed-economy equilibrium. In a small open economy, with “naïve” infrastructure provider(s), multiple equilibria obtain. The industrial export potential of the economy depends on unexhausted economies of scale, and equilibria are possible where manufactures are exported despite an autarky price higher than the world price. With a sophisticated infrastructure provider, even an open economy has a unique equilibrium, which, at least as long as economies …
Monetary Policy And Asset Prices In A Small Open Economy: A Factor-Augmented Var Analysis For Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy
Monetary Policy And Asset Prices In A Small Open Economy: A Factor-Augmented Var Analysis For Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy
Research Collection School Of Economics
The ongoing global financial turmoil has revived the question of whether central bankers ought to tighten monetary policy preemptively in order to head off asset price misalignments before a sudden crash triggers financial instability. This study explores the issue of the appropriate monetary policy response to asset price swings in the small open economy of Singapore. Empirical analysis of monetary policy based on standard VAR models, unfortunately, is often hindered by the use of sparse information sets. To better reflect the extensive information monitored by Singapore’s central bank, including global economic indicators, we augment a monetary VAR model with common …
Instability And The Incentives For Corruption, Filipe R. Campante, Davin Chor, Quoc-Anh Do
Instability And The Incentives For Corruption, Filipe R. Campante, Davin Chor, Quoc-Anh Do
Research Collection School Of Economics
We investigate the relationship between corruption and political stability, from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. We propose a model of incumbent behavior that features the interplay of two effects: a horizon effect, whereby greater instability leads the incumbent to embezzle more during his short window of opportunity, and a demand effect, by which the private sector is more willing to bribe stable incumbents. The horizon effect dominates at low levels of stability, because firms are unwilling to pay high bribes and unstable incumbents have strong incentives to embezzle, whereas the demand effect gains salience in more stable regimes. Together, these …
Unpacking Sources Of Comparative Advantage: A Quantitative Approach, Davin Chor
Unpacking Sources Of Comparative Advantage: A Quantitative Approach, Davin Chor
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper develops an approach for quantifying the relative importance of different sources of comparative advantage for country welfare in a global trade equilibrium. To explain the pattern of specialization, I present a multi-country, perfectly-competitive Ricardian model that extends Eaton and Kortum (2002) to predict industry trade flows. In this framework, comparative advantage is determined by the interaction of country and industry characteristics, with countries specializing in industries whose specific production needs they are best able to meet with their factor endowments, institutional environment, and technological strengths. I estimate the model parameters using a large dataset of bilateral trade flows, …
A Welfare Analysis Of Capital Account Liberalization, Jürgen Von Hagen, Haiping Zhang
A Welfare Analysis Of Capital Account Liberalization, Jürgen Von Hagen, Haiping Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We develop a model of a small open economy with credit market frictions to analyze the consequences of capital account liberalization. We show that financial opening facilitates the inflows of cheap foreign funds and improves production efficiency. Reforms increasing labor market exibility can further improve such efficiency gains. However, capital account liberalization also has important distributional consequences. Specifically, it may be impossible to use public transfers to fully compensate the loss of those negatively affected by capital account liberalization. This explains why financial opening often meets fierce opposition even though it leads to efficiency gains for the economy as a …