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Articles 121 - 150 of 220
Full-Text Articles in International Economics
Is There A Future For The Euro?, Augustine H. H. Tan
Is There A Future For The Euro?, Augustine H. H. Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
A Greek exit could spell the euro zone's disintegration. The Greek referendum last Sunday resoundingly backed its embattled government over its tortuous negotiations with the Troika of the European Central Bank (ECB), the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Greece is now back at the negotiating table, which may ease the terms of loan repayment and lighten the reforms demanded or it may lead to a Grexit.
Greece Caught In Death Spiral, Augustine H. H. Tan
Greece Caught In Death Spiral, Augustine H. H. Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
The country is trapped between twin evils akin to the sea monsters Scylla and Charybdis that threatened Odysseus' voyage.
Export-Learning And Fdi With Heterogeneous Firms, Amanda Jakobsson
Export-Learning And Fdi With Heterogeneous Firms, Amanda Jakobsson
Research Collection School Of Economics
I present a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms that can innovate, learn how to export and then go on to become multinational firms. Entering the foreign market is a dynamic process where firms first learn how to export and then can learn how to adapt production to a low-wage location (multinational production). I solve the model numerically and, starting from a 1990 benchmark of US and Mexico, study how policy changes such as stronger patent protection and trade liberalization affect innovation, technology transfer and consumer welfare. In particular, I disentangle how labor resources are reallocated within regions in …
China's Yuan: Asia's Future Anchor Currency?, Hwee Kwan Chow
China's Yuan: Asia's Future Anchor Currency?, Hwee Kwan Chow
Research Collection School Of Economics
The yuan is becoming more widely used in pricing and settling intra-regional trade and investment. Asian currencies' movements are likely to shift more in tandem with the yuan, leading to it becoming one of Asia's lead currencies. Singapore is now the world's second-most- important offshore yuan trading hub after Hong Kong.
Asian Tiger Economies' Choices, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan
Asian Tiger Economies' Choices, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper considers the choices facing the Asian tiger economies regarding growth strategies that foster trans-Pacific rebalancing. A review of historical data spanning 2000 to 2008 reveals only a slight widening of the overall current account surplus but that there is considerable variation across the countries, with Hong Kong, China exhibiting the biggest increase in the saving and investment (S-I) balance. Meanwhile, cross-correlation coefficient estimates tentatively suggest that changes in the real effective exchange rate do not seem to exhibit a consistent negative lead over changes in the S-I gap in the short run over the past decade. Highimport leakage, …
Allocative Efficiency, Mark-Ups, And The Welfare Gains From Trade, Thomas J. Holmes, Wen-Tai Hsu, Sanghoon Lee
Allocative Efficiency, Mark-Ups, And The Welfare Gains From Trade, Thomas J. Holmes, Wen-Tai Hsu, Sanghoon Lee
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper develops an index of allocative efficiency that depends upon the distribution of mark-ups across goods and is separable from an index of standard Ricardian gains from trade. It determines how changes in trade frictions affect allocative efficiency in an oligopoly model of international trade, decomposing the effect into the cost-change channel and the price-change channel. Formulas are derived shedding light on the signs and magnitudes of the two channels. In symmetric country models, trade tends to increase allocative efficiency through the cost-change channel, yielding a welfare benefit beyond productive efficiency gains. In contrast, the price-change channel has ambiguous …
Complementarity In Institutional Quality In Bilateral Fdi Flows, Pao Li Chang
Complementarity In Institutional Quality In Bilateral Fdi Flows, Pao Li Chang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper develops a theory on the complementarity in institutional qualities between the home and host countries in bilateral FDI. Firms ‘born’ in countries with poorer institutions tend to invest more in informal institutions to mitigate political risk. The marginal advantage of higher informal institution endowment is bigger when the political risk at the FDI destination is higher. Thus, all else being equal, the ranking of the MNE’s home institutions predicts the ranking of the institutional qualities of their FDI destinations. I find robust empirical evidence for this theoretical prediction using bilateral FDI for 219 economies during year 2001-2010.
Exchange Rates And Export Structure, Wen-Tai Hsu, Yi Lu, Yingke Zhou
Exchange Rates And Export Structure, Wen-Tai Hsu, Yi Lu, Yingke Zhou
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper studies whether changes in the exchange rate affect a country’s export structure, using an arguably exogenous sudden appreciation of renminbi on July 21, 2005 as the main source of identification. Employing combined regression discontinuity and difference-in-differences approach, we show that China’s export structure became more similar to that of the developed countries after the currency appreciation. We also find that the majority of the appreciation effect comes from the inter-firm resource reallocation rather than the inter-region or intra-firm resource reallocation.
The Pains Of Economic Reforms In China And Japan, Singapore Management University
The Pains Of Economic Reforms In China And Japan, Singapore Management University
Perspectives@SMU
Asia’s two biggest economies face up to their most difficult challenges
Trade And Financial Integration, Extensive Margin, And Income Divergence, Haiping Zhang
Trade And Financial Integration, Extensive Margin, And Income Divergence, Haiping Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We revisit the classical question on economic integration and income convergence in a two-sector OLG model with financial frictions and sectoral heterogeneity in minimum investment requirements (MIR, hereafter). The extensive margin of investment is a critical channel through which aggregate income may become a determinant of comparative advantage. Free trade allows the rich (poor) country to specialize partially or completely in the high-MIR (low-MIR) sector which has a high (low) return endogenously. The specialization effect interacts with the neoclassical effect, which may lead to income divergence among inherently identical countries. Similarly, financial integration may also lead to income divergence through …
International Transmission Of Interest Rates And The Open Economy Trilemma In Asia, Hwee Kwan Chow
International Transmission Of Interest Rates And The Open Economy Trilemma In Asia, Hwee Kwan Chow
Research Collection School Of Economics
There has recently been much discussion on the relevance of the open economy trilemma in the context of deepening financial integration of countries across the world (see for instance, Rey (2013) and Devereux and Yetman (2014)). The open economy trilemma is an important issue for the countries in Asia not least because their financial systems are small and exchange rate stability is crucial to their economic growth. This paper investigates whether the economies in Asia are still bound by the "impossible trinity" by examining the interest rate transmission from the US to the region before and after the onset of …
Singapore’S Competitiveness At Risk, Augustine H. H. Tan
Singapore’S Competitiveness At Risk, Augustine H. H. Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
Singapore’s disappointing second-quarter growth of 2.1 per cent compared with the same period last year has raised concerns about the impact of economic restructuring. When compared with the last quarter, growth even dipped 0.8 per cent. At the same time, productivity performance has been dismal. After rising by 2.2 per cent in 2011, productivity dropped by 1.4 per cent in 2012 and another 0.2 per cent last year.
The World Economy In 2014, Singapore Management University
The World Economy In 2014, Singapore Management University
Perspectives@SMU
The U.S., European Union, and China have their own battles to fight
On The Effect And Remedies Of Shrinkage On Classification Probability Estimation, Zhengxiao Wu, Yufeng Liu, Zhengxiao Wu
On The Effect And Remedies Of Shrinkage On Classification Probability Estimation, Zhengxiao Wu, Yufeng Liu, Zhengxiao Wu
Research Collection School of Economics
Shrinkage methods have been shown to be effective for classification problems. As a form of regularization, shrinkage through penalization helps to avoid overfitting and produces accurate classifiers for prediction, especially when the dimension is relatively high. Despite the benefit of shrinkage on classification accuracy of resulting classifiers, in this article, we demonstrate that shrinkage creates biases on classification probability estimation. In many cases, this bias can be large and consequently yield poor class probability estimation when the sample size is small or moderate. We offer some theoretical insights into the effect of shrinkage and provide remedies for better class probability …
Allocative Efficiency, Mark-Ups, And The Welfare Gains From Trade, Thomas J. Holmes, Wen-Tai Hsu, Sanghoon Lee
Allocative Efficiency, Mark-Ups, And The Welfare Gains From Trade, Thomas J. Holmes, Wen-Tai Hsu, Sanghoon Lee
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper develops an index of allocative efficiency that depends upon the distribution of mark-ups across goods and is separable from an index of standard Ricardian gains from trade. It determines how changes in trade frictions affect allocative efficiency in an oligopoly model of international trade, decomposing the effect into the cost-change channel and the price-change channel. Formulas are derived shedding light on the signs and magnitudes of the two channels. In symmetric country models, trade tends to increase allocative efficiency through the cost-change channel, yielding a welfare benefit beyond productive efficiency gains. In contrast, the price-change channel has ambiguous …
‘Educating Indonesia’ And The Minister Who’S Making It Happen, Singapore Management University
‘Educating Indonesia’ And The Minister Who’S Making It Happen, Singapore Management University
Perspectives@SMU
Energy and optimism were highlights of the recent speech given by Indonesia’s Trade Minister Gita Wirjawan during the SMU Presidential Distinguished Lecturer Series. While the optimism may be rooted deeply in the potential of Indonesia’s current demographic — more than 30 percent of its population is aged between 19 and 24, and more than 50 percent is under 29, making it one of the youngest productive populations in the world — its economic success story is fact, reflected in its G-20 membership, where it is the second fastest growing economy.Yet much remains to be done to unleash the full potential …
Host Country Financial Development And Mnc Activity, L. Kamran Bilir, Davin Chor, Manova Kalina
Host Country Financial Development And Mnc Activity, L. Kamran Bilir, Davin Chor, Manova Kalina
Research Collection School Of Economics
Multinational corporations (MNCs) manage complex operations, often blending features of three modes of FDI that are well understood in isolation but not in tandem, namely: horizontal, vertical and export-platform FDI. We develop a three-country model with heterogeneous firms, in order to analyze how financing constraints in the FDI host country affect the relative strength of these three motives for FDI. In our model, financial development in the host country fosters entry by domestic firms, making the local market more competitive for MNC products. This leads MNCs to orient their affiliate sales away from the local market toward other markets instead. …
Impact Of Sovereign Debt Restructuring On Financial Flows: The Case Of Indonesia, Hwee Kwan Chow, C. Adams
Impact Of Sovereign Debt Restructuring On Financial Flows: The Case Of Indonesia, Hwee Kwan Chow, C. Adams
Research Collection School Of Economics
No abstract provided.
Monetary Regime Choice In Singapore: Would A Tayor Rule Outperform Exchange-Rate Management?, Hwee Kwan Chow, G.C. Lim, P. Mcnelis
Monetary Regime Choice In Singapore: Would A Tayor Rule Outperform Exchange-Rate Management?, Hwee Kwan Chow, G.C. Lim, P. Mcnelis
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper adopts a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium-vector autorgressive (DSGE-VAR) approach to examine the managed exchange-rate system at work in Singapore. We examine if the country has any reason to fear floating the exchange rate and adopting a Taylor rule. Our results show that, in terms of overall inflation volatility, the exchange rate rule has a comparative advantage over the Taylor rule when export price shocks are the major sources of real volatility, while a Taylor rule dominates when domestic productivity shocks drive real volatility. The exchange-rate rule also dominates the Taylor rule for reducing inflation persistence.
Can A Financial Conditions Index Guide Monetary Policy? The Case Of Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow
Can A Financial Conditions Index Guide Monetary Policy? The Case Of Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this study, we explore the issue of whether a financial conditions index can serve as a useful guide to monetary policy in the context of Singapore. To this end, we construct an index that comprises not only the usual monetary variables like interest rates, exchange rates and credit expansions but also asset prices such as stock prices and house prices. The choice of these constituent series is motivated by the role they play in the monetary transmission mechanism with consideration given to the key role leverage plays in modern business cycles and the risk-taking channel magnified by the prolonged …
Financial Development, International Capital Flows, And Aggregate Output, Jürgen Von Hagen, Haiping Zhang
Financial Development, International Capital Flows, And Aggregate Output, Jürgen Von Hagen, Haiping Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We develop a tractable two-country overlapping-generations model and show that cross-country differences in financial development can explain three recent empirical patterns of international capital flows: Financial capital flows from relatively poor to relatively rich countries, while foreign direct investment flows in the opposite direction; net capital flows go from poor to rich countries; despite its negative net international investment positions, the United States receives a positive net investment income. International capital mobility affects output in each country directly through the size of domestic investment and indirectly through the aggregate saving rate. Under certain conditions, the indirect effect may dominate the …
Entropy-Based Analysis And Bioinformatics-Inspired Integration Of Global Economic Information Transfer, Jinkyu Kim, Gunn Kim, Sungbae An, Young-Kyun Kwon, Sungroh Yoon
Entropy-Based Analysis And Bioinformatics-Inspired Integration Of Global Economic Information Transfer, Jinkyu Kim, Gunn Kim, Sungbae An, Young-Kyun Kwon, Sungroh Yoon
Research Collection School Of Economics
The assessment of information transfer in the global economic network helps to understand the current environment and the outlook of an economy. Most approaches on global networks extract information transfer based mainly on a single variable. This paper establishes an entirely new bioinformatics-inspired approach to integrating information transfer derived from multiple variables and develops an international economic network accordingly. In the proposed methodology, we first construct the transfer entropies (TEs) between various intra- and inter-country pairs of economic time series variables, test their significances, and then use a weighted sum approach to aggregate information captured in each TE. Through a …
Trade, Firm Selection, And Industrial Agglomeration, Wen-Tai Hsu, Ping Wang
Trade, Firm Selection, And Industrial Agglomeration, Wen-Tai Hsu, Ping Wang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We develop a model of trade and agglomeration that incorporates trade in both intermediate goods and final goods and allows all firms to choose their locations. There are two types of labor: skilled labor, which is mobile, and unskilled labor, which is immobile. Upon choosing its factory site, a final goods firm that is managed by skilled labor can produce these goods using local unskilled labor and a variety of intermediate goods produced by productivity-heterogeneous producers. We characterize world equilibrium and establish the conditions under which industrial agglomeration arises as a stable equilibrium outcome. We show that when the unskilled …
Foreign Direct Investment: Clearing The Infrastructure Bottlenecks, Kim Song Tan, Sim Yee Lau
Foreign Direct Investment: Clearing The Infrastructure Bottlenecks, Kim Song Tan, Sim Yee Lau
Research Collection School Of Economics
No abstract provided.
The Educated Middle Class, Their Economics Prospects, And The Arab Spring, Davin Chor, Filipe R. Campante
The Educated Middle Class, Their Economics Prospects, And The Arab Spring, Davin Chor, Filipe R. Campante
Research Collection School Of Economics
The recent uprisings in the Arab World carry a broader lesson, highlighting the importance of sustaining an economy that provides sufficient job opportunities for an increasingly educated and skilled middle class.
Why Smes Should Aim At Becoming Exporters, Hian Teck Hoon
Why Smes Should Aim At Becoming Exporters, Hian Teck Hoon
Research Collection School Of Economics
In the fortnightly series entitled 'Engage SMU profs', Professor Hoon Hian Teck, Associate Dean of the School of Economics, answers the questions: Should SMEs aim to become exporters rather than serve only the domestic market? What are the benefits to SMEs in doing so? Does the smallness in size limit their productivity growth? Are there any channels for SMEs to get assistance from the authorities, and what are these? He commented that if more of our local SMEs look towards the international marketplace and sell to foreign markets, not only will Singapore's GDP be boosted, local businessmen will also get …
Country Image And International Trade, Pao Li Chang, Tomoki Fujii
Country Image And International Trade, Pao Li Chang, Tomoki Fujii
Research Collection School Of Economics
We study the impact of country image on international trade flows. We find that a one percentage point increase in the positive response ratio - the proportion of people in the importing country who view the exporting country positively - is associated with at least a one percent increase in the aggregate trade flow. By disaggregating trade flows by the type of goods, we also find that both homogeneous and differentiated goods are positively affected by better country image and that the impact of country image tends to be larger when more substitutes are available in the international market.
Are Us Economic Variables Useful For Chinese Stock Market Forecasts?, Singapore Management University
Are Us Economic Variables Useful For Chinese Stock Market Forecasts?, Singapore Management University
Perspectives@SMU
How does the US economy affect China’s? While much had been written about the decoupling between developed and the emerging economies, one scholar has put forward a contrarian view.
Off The Cliff And Back? Credit Conditions And International Trade During The Global Financial Crisis, Davin Chor, Manova Kalina
Off The Cliff And Back? Credit Conditions And International Trade During The Global Financial Crisis, Davin Chor, Manova Kalina
Research Collection School Of Economics
We examine the collapse of international trade flows during the 2008-2009 global financial crisis using detailed data on the evolution of monthly U.S. imports over the November 2006 - April 2009 period. We show that credit constraints and the reduction in the availability of external capital were an important channel through which the crisis affected trade volumes. We identify the effects of credit tightening by exploiting the variation in the cost of capital across countries and over time, as well as the variation in financial dependence across sectors. We find that countries with higher interbank interest rates and thus tighter …
Organizing The Global Value Chain, Pol Antras, Davin Chor
Organizing The Global Value Chain, Pol Antras, Davin Chor
Research Collection School Of Economics
We develop a property-rights model of the firm in which production entails a continuum of uniquely sequenced stages. In each stage, a final-good producer contracts with a distinct supplier for the procurement of a customized stage-specific component. Our model yields a sharp characterization for the optimal allocation of ownership rights along the value chain. We show that the incentive to integrate suppliers varies systematically with the relative position (upstream versus downstream) at which the supplier enters the production line. Furthermore, the nature of the relationship between integration and “downstreamness” depends crucially on the elasticity of demand faced by the final-good …