Income Distribution Commons^™

Investigating Chaos In The Nigerian Asset And Resource Management (Arm) Discovery Fund, Ibiyinka A. Fuwape, Samuel T. Ogunjo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates chaos in a Nigerian mutual fund, Asset and Resource Management Company Limited (ARM) for a period of eleven years. The existence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the reconstruction of the phase space of the daily closing price of the fund and the delay time was quantified using mutual information function and the embedding dimension by the false nearest neighbours, where the values were identified to be 15 and 20 respectively. The presence of chaotic signals in the ARM data was further confirmed by the correlation dimension method which yielded a dimension of 2.2 …

Modeling The Nigerian Inflation Rates Using Periodogram And Fourier Series Analysis, Chukwuemeka O. Omekara,, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Micheal P. Ekerete

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This work considers the application of Periodogram and Fourier Series Analysis to model all-items monthly inflation rates in Nigeria from 2003 to 2011. The main objectives are to identify inflation cycles, fit a suitable model to the data and make forecasts of future values. To achieve these objectives, monthly all-items inflation rates for the period were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website. Periodogram and Fourier series methods of analysis are used to analyze the data. Based on the analysis, it was found that inflation cycle within the period was fifty one (51) months, which coincides with the …

Nigerian Stock Index: A Search For Optimal Garch Model Using High Frequency Data, Olaoluwa Simon Yaya

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper attempts to fit the best Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model for All Share Index (ASI) of Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) returns. A search is made on various GARCH variants specified on the assumptions of stationarity and asymmetry. Fractionally integrated types are also considered to capture the possibility of return series having property of long range dependency. The parameter estimations are carried out on the assumptions of normality and non-normality of GARCH innovations, with models and forecasts evaluated using information criteria and loss functions respectively. Under normality assumption, Hyperbolic GARCH (HYGARCH(1,d,1)) model is selected and Integrated GARCH (IGARCH(1,1)) …

Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria External Reserves, Iheanyichukwu S. Iwueze, Eleazar C. Nwogu, Valentine U. Nlebedim

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper discusses the levels and trend of external reserves in Nigeria. The relevance of this lies in the fact that it could help to monitor the reserves and throw early warning signal about any economic crisis. Monthly data on Nigeria external reserves for the period January 1999 to December, 2008 derived from the 2008 CBN Statistical Bulletin was analyzed using ARIMA model. Results of the analyses show that (i) the data requires logarithmic transformation to stabilize the variance and make the distribution normal (ii) the appropriate model that best describes the pattern in the transformed data is the Autoregressive- …

A Markov Decision Process Approach To Optimal Control Of A Multi-Level Hierarchical Manpower System, Akaninyene U. Udom

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

A recurrent problem in manpower control is how to attain the desired structural configuration in an optimal way, since it is possible to reach a desired structural configuration using different control inputs. The major aim of this paper is to develop a Markov Decision Process for optimal control of a Multi-level Hierarchical Manpower System (MHMS) by promotion and interdepartmental transfers. This is examined under control by intervention and contraction cost Markov Decision Process.

The Disparate Neighborhood Impacts Of The Great Recession: Evidence From Chicago, Sonya Williams, George C. Galster, Nandita Verma

Urban Studies and Planning Faculty Research Publications

We advance scholarship about how macroeconomic forces differentially manifest themselves across local spaces by developing a holistic conceptual framework and empirical analyses involving multilevel change modeling. Unlike prior work, we examine differential rates of change in neighborhood indicators. We illustrate our approach with Chicago data measuring the crime, housing, and economic domains of neighborhood quality- of-life over the 2000-2009 period. We find that the local dynamic manifestations of macroeconomic cycles were far more nuanced than have been previously observed. Neighborhood indicators moved along distinct trajectories, sometimes but not necessarily tracking each other or the overall business cycle, and they changed …

Contributions Of Financial Sector Reforms And Credit Supply To Nigerian Agricultural Sector (1978-2009), Anthony O. Onoja, M. E. Onu, S. Ajodo-Ohiemi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study analyzed the trends and pattern of institutional credit supply to agriculture during pre- and post-financial reforms along with their determinants. It then compared the effects of reform policies on access to institutional credits in Nigerian agricultural sector before and after the reforms (1978 - 1985; and 1986 -2009). Relying mainly on time series data from CBN and NBS, it used ordinary least squares method (linear, semi-log and double log) to model the determinants of banking sector lending to the agricultural sector during the review period. The models were subjected to several econometric tests before accepting one. Chow test …

Determinants Of Foreign Reserves In Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach, David Irefin, Baba N. Yaaba

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

On global scale, central banks’ holdings of foreign reserves have escalated sharply in recent years. World international reserves holdings have risen significantly from US$1.2 trillion in 1995 to nearly US$10.0 trillion in June 2011. Dominant among these reserves are concentrated in the hands of few countries. Ten major holders of foreign reserves are mostly from Asia. Oil exporting countries in Africa and the Middle East are not left out in this trend. Nigeria’s foreign reserves rose from US$5.5 billion in 1999 to US$62.40 billion in July 2008, making Nigeria the twenty-fourth largest reserves holder in the world. This pace of …

Effects Of Exchange Rate Movements On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Eme O. Akpan, Johnson A. Atan

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the effect of exchange rate movements on real output growth in Nigeria. Based on quarterly series for the period 1986 to 2010, the paper examines the possible direct and indirect relationship between exchange rates and GDP growth. The relationship is derived in two ways using a simultaneous equations model within a fully specified (but small) macroeconomic model. A Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) technique was explored. The estimation results suggest that there is no evidence of a strong direct relationship between changes in exchange rate and output growth. Rather, Nigeria’s economic growth has been directly affected by …

Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: Consistency, Persistency & Severity Analyses, Babatunde Adeoye, Akinwande A. Atanda

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The adoption of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986 resulted in the transition from fixed exchange rate regime to floating exchange rate regime in Nigeria. Ever since, the exchange rate of naira vis-à-vis the U.S dollar has attained varying rates all through different time horizons. On this basis, this study examines the consistency, persistency, and severity (degree) of volatility in exchange rate of Nigerian currency (naira) vis-a-vis the United State dollar using monthly time series data from 1986 to 2008. The standard Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) model was used to analyze the long-run consistency of …

Foreign Private Investment And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegrated Var And Granger Causality Analysis, F. Z. Abdullahi, S. Ladan, Haruna R. Bakari

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This research uses a cointegration VAR model to study the contemporaneous long-run dynamics of the impact of Foreign Private Investment (FPI), Interest Rate (INR) and Inflation rate (IFR) on Growth Domestic Products (GDP) in Nigeria for the period January 1970 to December 2009. The Unit Root Test suggests that all the variables are integrated of order 1. The VAR model was appropriately identified using AIC information criteria and the VECM model has exactly one cointegration relation. The study further investigates the causal relationship using the Granger causality analysis of VECM which indicates a uni-directional causality relationship between GDP and FDI …

Banking Sector Credit And Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation, Aniekan O. Akpansung, Sikiru J. Babalola

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The paper examines the relationship between banking sector credit and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1970-2008. The causal links between the pairs of variables of interest were established using Granger causality test while a Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS) estimation technique was used for the regression models. The results of Granger causality test show evidence of unidirectional causal relationship from GDP to private sector credit (PSC) and from industrial production index (IND) to GDP. Estimated regression models indicate that private sector credit impacts positively on economic growth over the period of coverage in this study. However, lending (interest) rate …

Neither The Washington Nor Beijing Consensus: Developmental Models To Fit African Realities And Cultures, Sanusi L. Sanusi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

No abstract provided.

The Effect Of U.S. State Taxes On State Economic Prosperity, Casey Dainsberg

Political Science Theses and Capstones

Policy makers today are faced with trying to create solutions for economic troubles that become increasingly more complex and foreboding. Tax cuts and tax hikes are proposed and considered as possible solutions to various economic problems. However, the question still remains regarding which policies are most effective. The purpose of this research is to asses these competing claims. It seeks to find evidence that will shed light on one of these views. I have done this by accumulating tax and economic data from the fifty U.S. States between the years 2001-2009. Previous research has concluded that taxes do affect the …

China And Brazil: Potential Allies Or Just Brics In The Wall?, Anthony Petros Spanakos

Department of Political Science and Law Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

Brazil is an increasingly important actor in global governance and for China specifically. Sino-Brazilian relations have deepened considerably but they remain concentrated in areas of trade and investment. There is also considerable overlap in interests between the two countries in other areas, such as diplomatic and political relations. At the same time, China must manage carefully important differences that exist over the enlargement of the UN and the potential challenge to the Brazilian industry.

Why Brazil Has Not Grown: A Comparative Analysis Of Brazilian, Indian, And Chinese Economic Management, Fernando Ferrari-Filho, Anthony Petros Spanakos

Department of Political Science and Law Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

This paper does not aim to dispute that Brazil would benefit from reforms in any or all of these areas. Rather, the paper offers a skeptical perspective on reform menus and proposes an alternative explanation for the faster growth of Brazil’s peers India and China2. The paper begins by introducing (section 1) the idea of the BRICs countries, to establish the basis for comparisons of most similar cases. It then surveys the results of a generation of Washington Consensus era growth (section 2). Although there is a considerable amount of divergence over what causes growth, it seems that something approaching …

The Gettysburg Economic Review, Volume 2, Spring 2008

Gettysburg Economic Review

No abstract provided.

A Current Microeconometric Assessment Of The Racial Wage Gap In The United States, David H. Krisch

Gettysburg Economic Review

Minority groups in the United States promoted affirmative action legislation in the 1960s during the civil rights movement to help ease the inequalities suffered in their economic history. Many labor economists have sought since this time to study the effects of race, gender, and the effect of income – how it has changed and if the gap has closed. Existing literature uses many different econometric models to show how the effects of race, gender, age, occupation, educational attainment, and geographic location on an individual comparative basis. This paper will examine the effects of all of these variables jointly using an …

Collection Of Emails, Journals, And Articles, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

his collection includes:

• Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. (2008, Winter). Summary, Vol. 17, No. 1 [Institute newsletter covering research programs, publications, conferences, and policy analysis].
• Moudud, J. K. (2007, September 28). ARDL method [Email to Anwar Shaikh explaining an autoregressive distributed lag modeling procedure].
• Herbst, B. (2008, January 16). Academic year 2008/9 [Email to Anwar Shaikh concerning the coming academic year's schedule].
• Thornton, J. L. (2008, January-February). Long time coming: The prospects for democracy in China [Annotated fragment from a Foreign Affairs article examining China's political development and prospects for democratization].
• India China Institute. (2008, January 10). Prosperity and …

The Gettysburg Economic Review, Volume 1, Spring 2006

Gettysburg Economic Review

No abstract provided.

Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, June 1998, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

The explanatory notes outline the methods for compiling financial, public finance, national accounts, and international trade statistics in Nigeria. Financial statistics are compiled from balance sheets and financial statements, covering lending and deposit interest rates, bank liquidity, and clearing house statistics. Public finance statistics include government revenue, expenditure, and debt, as well as debt conversion programs and promissory notes. National accounts are based on the System of National Accounts and include data on GDP, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, consumption expenditure, and Gross National Savings. International trade statistics measure the value and quantity of imports and exports, presented in the Standard …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1994, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

In 1994, Nigeria faced economic challenges such as declining GDP growth, inflation, and a weakened external sector due to expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, political unrest, and labor issues. Despite this, the global economy saw stronger recovery in industrialized countries and developing regions like Asia and Latin America. The Nigerian economy struggled with slow growth, manufacturing decline, rising inflation, large budget deficit, and weakened external sector performance. Efforts to stabilize the exchange rate were hindered by differences between official and unofficial market rates. Internationally, there were improvements in the world economy with higher growth rates in developed and developing countries. …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, June 1992, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

This volume data on various aspects of Nigeria's economy, including debt and banking sub-sector, central banking, financial markets, non-bank financial institutions, system clearinghouse activities, merchant and commercial banking, and public finance statistics for the year 1999. The data on financial institutions is based on the consolidation of commercial and merchant banks' first and second schedule statutory returns, computation of liquidity ratio, cash reserve ratio, loan/deposit ratio, proportion of loans to rural borrowers and small-scale enterprises, aggregate and sectoral distribution of credits, and the structure of licensed banks loans and advances. The data on financial markets is based on the consolidation …

Structuralist Explanations, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes,

• Taylor, L. (1991). Income distribution, inflation, and growth: Lectures on structuralist macroeconomic theory. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.

Loose Notes On Income Distribution And Inequality, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Taylor, L. (1991). Income distribution, inflation, and growth: Lectures on structuralist macroeconomic theory [Selected book excerpts].
• Botwinick, H. (1993). Persistent inequalities [Selected book excerpts on wage disparity, labor-market segmentation, and capitalist competition].

Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, December 1990, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is recognized for its role in collecting, collating, analyzing, and disseminating data on the Nigerian economy. It has made available as much information as possible through its regular publications such as the Monthly, Half-Year, and Annual Reports, as well as the Economic and Financial Review and the Intermediate Economic and Financial Indicators. However, the bulk of the statistics published in these documents have focused mainly on the current and irregular reporting periods. This has led to a gap in the availability of relevant statistics in the country. The first issue of the CBN Strategic …

Entral Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1989, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

The Nigerian economy showed improvement in 1989 compared to 1988. Economic Growth: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 4.0%, driven by growth in agriculture and industry. The overall balance of payments moved from a deficit to a surplus, largely due to a significant increase in crude oil exports. The unemployment rate declined slightly, with more jobs created through government programs. Nigeria's external assets increased significantly, reflecting a deliberate policy to build official reserves. Inflation: Despite some improvement, inflationary pressures remained high, with domestic prices rising by 40.9%. Stagnant Manufacturing: Manufacturing production grew at a slow pace due to high production …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1986, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

CBN annual report and statement of accounts for 1986 covers economic performance including key economic indicators such as inflation rate, GDP growth, exchange rate stability, banking sector performance, monetary policy, financial stability, fiscal policy, and regulatory updates for 1986. The development in 1986 were mixed. The GDP at constant 1977/78 factor cost was estimated at N25,290 million, representing a decline of 3.3 per cent and the decline was largely due to poor performance of the manufacturing, crude petroleum, wholesale and retail trade sectors. The trajectory of monetary aggregates was relatively in the download direction. Money supply indicated a 1.2 per …

Occ Work, Anwar Shaikh Phd19

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes.

• Figure 1: The capital-intensity of production. (1984, March). [Handwritten graph]. Unpublished manuscript. (Anwar Shaikh, PhD, author).

• Figure 1: The capital-intensity of production and figure 2: Productivity and real wages. (1984, March). [Typewritten graphs]. Unpublished manuscript. (Anwar Shaikh, PhD, author).

• Figure 3: U.S. profit rate, non-financial corporations; figure 4: U.S. real profits and stock market index; and figure 5: U.S. real wages and unemployment rate. (n.d.). [Typewritten graphs]. Unpublished manuscript. (Anwar Shaikh, PhD, author).

• Table 1: U.S. and U.K. (% of workers’ social benefit expenditures funded out of workers’ taxes). …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1983, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

In 1983, Nigeria's economy experienced severe stagflation, with GDP falling by 4.4%, more than the 3.4% decline recorded in 1982. Domestic inflation was 23.2%, more than three times the 7.7% recorded in 1982. The external sector also suffered from the general malaise, with the recorded value of external trade falling from N21.3 billion in 1982 to N17.3 billion in 1983. Agricultural production fell sharply due to severe droughts, bush fires, and diseases/pest infestations in livestock and crops. The volume of primary commercial energy consumed increased, with the index going up by 4.4% in 1983. Inflationary pressures intensified due to the …