Income Distribution Commons^™

Nigerian Stock Index: A Search For Optimal Garch Model Using High Frequency Data, Olaoluwa Simon Yaya

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper attempts to fit the best Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model for All Share Index (ASI) of Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) returns. A search is made on various GARCH variants specified on the assumptions of stationarity and asymmetry. Fractionally integrated types are also considered to capture the possibility of return series having property of long range dependency. The parameter estimations are carried out on the assumptions of normality and non-normality of GARCH innovations, with models and forecasts evaluated using information criteria and loss functions respectively. Under normality assumption, Hyperbolic GARCH (HYGARCH(1,d,1)) model is selected and Integrated GARCH (IGARCH(1,1)) …

Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria External Reserves, Iheanyichukwu S. Iwueze, Eleazar C. Nwogu, Valentine U. Nlebedim

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper discusses the levels and trend of external reserves in Nigeria. The relevance of this lies in the fact that it could help to monitor the reserves and throw early warning signal about any economic crisis. Monthly data on Nigeria external reserves for the period January 1999 to December, 2008 derived from the 2008 CBN Statistical Bulletin was analyzed using ARIMA model. Results of the analyses show that (i) the data requires logarithmic transformation to stabilize the variance and make the distribution normal (ii) the appropriate model that best describes the pattern in the transformed data is the Autoregressive- …

A Markov Decision Process Approach To Optimal Control Of A Multi-Level Hierarchical Manpower System, Akaninyene U. Udom

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

A recurrent problem in manpower control is how to attain the desired structural configuration in an optimal way, since it is possible to reach a desired structural configuration using different control inputs. The major aim of this paper is to develop a Markov Decision Process for optimal control of a Multi-level Hierarchical Manpower System (MHMS) by promotion and interdepartmental transfers. This is examined under control by intervention and contraction cost Markov Decision Process.

Fuel Subsidy And Other Unproductive Public Expenditures Removal: A Pragmatic Approach To Restructure And Transform The Nigerian Economy, Lawrence O. Akinboyo

Bullion

While the short term measures to reduce recurrent expenditure are necessary conditions for fiscal sustainability, the long term imperative is to increase revenue. Thus, efforts should be made by the fiscal authorities in Nigeria to pursue the policy of balancing of expenditure with revenue improvements. The issues of the underperformance of the capital budget should be reversed before savings from cuts in recurrent expenditure can be diverted to the financing of capital expenditure. From the analysis, we say that removal of fuel subsidy would no doubt have some social and economic hardship on the people in the short run, However, …

Estimating The Economic Impact Of Garvan Woodland Gardens, Katherin A. Deck, Viktoria Riiman

Publications and Presentations

The study is organized as follows. First, the facilities and programs at Garvan Woodland Gardens are described in detail. Next, information on visitor and member counts, employment and volunteers, and financial information from the Gardens are provided. Finally, the results of the economic impact analysis from the IMPLAN input‐output model are presented for employment, value‐added, and output impacts on the Hot Springs area and the state of Arkansas. The detailed employment and output impacts by industry are available in the Appendix. Estimated employment impacts are compared to the county and state employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to …

The Gettysburg Economic Review, Volume 6, Spring 2012

Gettysburg Economic Review

No abstract provided.

The Rise Of American Industrial And Financial Corporations, Elizabeth A. Laughlin

Gettysburg Economic Review

This paper identifies and analyzes the steps the United States took in its progression to an industrial nation. Launched by the merger movement in the late nineteenth century, vertical and horizontal integration lead to trusts and monopolies in a number of industries. Simultaneously, the labor market was undergoing a number of reforms with the deskilling of workers. The rise of big business was made possible through the growth of the financial sectors and companies such as J.P Morgan. The case study of The Standard Oil Co. highlights the wealth and power that robber barons such as J.D. Rockefeller held during …

Contributions Of Financial Sector Reforms And Credit Supply To Nigerian Agricultural Sector (1978-2009), Anthony O. Onoja, M. E. Onu, S. Ajodo-Ohiemi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study analyzed the trends and pattern of institutional credit supply to agriculture during pre- and post-financial reforms along with their determinants. It then compared the effects of reform policies on access to institutional credits in Nigerian agricultural sector before and after the reforms (1978 - 1985; and 1986 -2009). Relying mainly on time series data from CBN and NBS, it used ordinary least squares method (linear, semi-log and double log) to model the determinants of banking sector lending to the agricultural sector during the review period. The models were subjected to several econometric tests before accepting one. Chow test …

Determinants Of Foreign Reserves In Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach, David Irefin, Baba N. Yaaba

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

On global scale, central banks’ holdings of foreign reserves have escalated sharply in recent years. World international reserves holdings have risen significantly from US$1.2 trillion in 1995 to nearly US$10.0 trillion in June 2011. Dominant among these reserves are concentrated in the hands of few countries. Ten major holders of foreign reserves are mostly from Asia. Oil exporting countries in Africa and the Middle East are not left out in this trend. Nigeria’s foreign reserves rose from US$5.5 billion in 1999 to US$62.40 billion in July 2008, making Nigeria the twenty-fourth largest reserves holder in the world. This pace of …

Effects Of Exchange Rate Movements On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Eme O. Akpan, Johnson A. Atan

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the effect of exchange rate movements on real output growth in Nigeria. Based on quarterly series for the period 1986 to 2010, the paper examines the possible direct and indirect relationship between exchange rates and GDP growth. The relationship is derived in two ways using a simultaneous equations model within a fully specified (but small) macroeconomic model. A Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) technique was explored. The estimation results suggest that there is no evidence of a strong direct relationship between changes in exchange rate and output growth. Rather, Nigeria’s economic growth has been directly affected by …

Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: Consistency, Persistency & Severity Analyses, Babatunde Adeoye, Akinwande A. Atanda

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The adoption of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986 resulted in the transition from fixed exchange rate regime to floating exchange rate regime in Nigeria. Ever since, the exchange rate of naira vis-à-vis the U.S dollar has attained varying rates all through different time horizons. On this basis, this study examines the consistency, persistency, and severity (degree) of volatility in exchange rate of Nigerian currency (naira) vis-a-vis the United State dollar using monthly time series data from 1986 to 2008. The standard Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) model was used to analyze the long-run consistency of …

Foreign Private Investment And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegrated Var And Granger Causality Analysis, F. Z. Abdullahi, S. Ladan, Haruna R. Bakari

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This research uses a cointegration VAR model to study the contemporaneous long-run dynamics of the impact of Foreign Private Investment (FPI), Interest Rate (INR) and Inflation rate (IFR) on Growth Domestic Products (GDP) in Nigeria for the period January 1970 to December 2009. The Unit Root Test suggests that all the variables are integrated of order 1. The VAR model was appropriately identified using AIC information criteria and the VECM model has exactly one cointegration relation. The study further investigates the causal relationship using the Granger causality analysis of VECM which indicates a uni-directional causality relationship between GDP and FDI …

Banking Sector Credit And Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation, Aniekan O. Akpansung, Sikiru J. Babalola

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The paper examines the relationship between banking sector credit and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1970-2008. The causal links between the pairs of variables of interest were established using Granger causality test while a Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS) estimation technique was used for the regression models. The results of Granger causality test show evidence of unidirectional causal relationship from GDP to private sector credit (PSC) and from industrial production index (IND) to GDP. Estimated regression models indicate that private sector credit impacts positively on economic growth over the period of coverage in this study. However, lending (interest) rate …

Neither The Washington Nor Beijing Consensus: Developmental Models To Fit African Realities And Cultures, Sanusi L. Sanusi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

No abstract provided.

The Gettysburg Economic Review, Volume 5, 2011

Gettysburg Economic Review

No abstract provided.

The Economic Impact Of The University Of Arkansas, Katherine A. Deck, Viktoria Riiman

Publications and Presentations

Founded in 1871, the University of Arkansas was established in the city of Fayetteville as both the state university and the major land‐grant university for Arkansas. The University of Arkansas is a flagship university for the integration of student engagement, scholarship and research, and innovation that collectively transforms lives and inspires leadership for a global society. As such, the impact of the University of Arkansas extends far beyond the transfer of knowledge from professors to students and is far reaching in social and economic terms. As leading research universities across the country engage in the process of enumerating the socio‐economic …

China And Brazil: Potential Allies Or Just Brics In The Wall?, Anthony Petros Spanakos

Department of Political Science and Law Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

Brazil is an increasingly important actor in global governance and for China specifically. Sino-Brazilian relations have deepened considerably but they remain concentrated in areas of trade and investment. There is also considerable overlap in interests between the two countries in other areas, such as diplomatic and political relations. At the same time, China must manage carefully important differences that exist over the enlargement of the UN and the potential challenge to the Brazilian industry.

Describing The Economic Impact Of The Oil And Gas Industry In Arkansas, Katherine A. Deck, Viktoria Riiman

Publications and Presentations

The Arkansas oil and natural gas industries are increasingly important to the state’s economic vitality. As global demand for energy increases, domestic production is put into the spotlight. This study describes the economic impact of the oil and gas industries in Arkansas, focusing on the sector’s economic output, employment, and tax revenues.

Residential Values In Benton County: Current Outlook, Katherine A. Deck, Viktoria Riiman

Publications and Presentations

The purpose of this report is to evaluate the current underlying economic conditions in Benton County, Arkansas as they relate to the growth in the valuation of residential property values. First, the economic section provides some details of employment and population growth during the last two years. The second section discusses residential sale values and how they have changed from 2007 to 2008. Data from the Office of the Benton County Assessor and from the Arkansas REALTOR Association are used to demonstrate the change in property valuation.

Why Brazil Has Not Grown: A Comparative Analysis Of Brazilian, Indian, And Chinese Economic Management, Fernando Ferrari-Filho, Anthony Petros Spanakos

Department of Political Science and Law Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

This paper does not aim to dispute that Brazil would benefit from reforms in any or all of these areas. Rather, the paper offers a skeptical perspective on reform menus and proposes an alternative explanation for the faster growth of Brazil’s peers India and China2. The paper begins by introducing (section 1) the idea of the BRICs countries, to establish the basis for comparisons of most similar cases. It then surveys the results of a generation of Washington Consensus era growth (section 2). Although there is a considerable amount of divergence over what causes growth, it seems that something approaching …

The Gettysburg Economic Review, Volume 2, Spring 2008

Gettysburg Economic Review

No abstract provided.

The Effect Of Micro-Credit On Poverty Alleviation: The Case Of Urban And Rural Egypt, Raghda El Ebrashi

Archived Theses and Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Conceptual Issues On Savings In Nigeria., A. J. Adam, A. V. Agba

Bullion

It is often held that capital accumulation is necessary and sufficient condition for growth and capital accumulation is almost synonymous with saving, hence the route to growth is then one of raising savings and smoothing consumption (Deaton, 1991). Savings is one of the key relevant macroeconomic variables in any economy. Its impact on the rate of capital accumulation, productivity and the degree of dependency of a nation on foreign capital and foreign ownership of domestic assets cannot be overemphasised. This paper reviews conceptual issues on savings behaviour in Nigeria. It also provided an analysis of the factors that may have …

The Gettysburg Economic Review, Volume 1, Spring 2006

Gettysburg Economic Review

No abstract provided.

Assessing The Economic Impact Of The 6th Annual Bikes, Blues, And Bbq Festival On The City Of Fayetteville, Jeffery T. Collins

Publications and Presentations

This report presents the results of the surveys used to develop estimates of the economic impact of the Bikes, Blues and BBQ (BBBBQ) festival on the city of Fayetteville in 2005. In order to fully estimate the economic impact of the festival, its influence was assessed on three different constituent groups: Fayetteville residents, local businesses, and BBBBQ visitors.

The visitor survey was developed by the Center for Business and Economic Research and was administered September 28-October 1, 2005 by University of Arkansas students who were hired and trained by the Center for Business and Economic Research. The resident and local …

Priming The Pump: Research As A Catalyst For Economic Growth, Jeffery T. Collins, Craig T. Schulman

Publications and Presentations

This analysis is designed to answer several important questions regarding the impact of research dollars invested in the state of Arkansas. We begin by discussing the state of the state in terms of income measures and measures of educational attainment levels. Throughout this analysis, the state of Arkansas is compared to the U.S., to a group of peer states , and, initially, to the state of Mississippi.

Next, we examine the linkage between income and education. We also examine higher education in the state in terms of spending, access and research dollars. From this general description we examine the present …

A Special Address: Year 2000 Budget Policy Seminar, Phillip Asiodu

Bullion

A Special address by the Chief Economic Adviser to the President, Mr. Phillip Asiodu. The paper centered on the roles of inter agencies synergies to ensure the implementation of the Year 2000 Federal Government Budget.

Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, December 1998, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

The explanatory notes outline the methods for compiling financial, public finance, national accounts, and international trade statistics in Nigeria. Financial statistics are compiled from balance sheets and financial statements, covering lending and deposit interest rates, bank liquidity, and clearing house statistics. Public finance statistics include government revenue, expenditure, and debt, as well as debt conversion programs and promissory notes. National accounts are based on the System of National Accounts and include data on GDP, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, consumption expenditure, and Gross National Savings. International trade statistics measure the value and quantity of imports and exports, presented in the Standard …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, June 1998, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

The explanatory notes outline the methods for compiling financial, public finance, national accounts, and international trade statistics in Nigeria. Financial statistics are compiled from balance sheets and financial statements, covering lending and deposit interest rates, bank liquidity, and clearing house statistics. Public finance statistics include government revenue, expenditure, and debt, as well as debt conversion programs and promissory notes. National accounts are based on the System of National Accounts and include data on GDP, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, consumption expenditure, and Gross National Savings. International trade statistics measure the value and quantity of imports and exports, presented in the Standard …

Policy Seminar On The 1997 Federal Government Budget., Paul A. Ogwuma

Bullion

This is a lecture presented by the Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria. It examines the Nigeria federal budget critically on strategy and framework for the successful implementation of the 1997 policy measures, taking into account the absorptive capacity and constraints of the Nigerian economy.