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Articles 61 - 90 of 210
Full-Text Articles in Growth and Development
Special Remarks At The Executive Seminar On Exchange Rate Policy And Economic Management In Nigeria - Is There A Need For Paradigm Shift?, S.O. Alade
Economic and Financial Review
This is a special remark delivered by the Deputy Governor (Economic Policy) during the 23rd edition of the Annual Executive Seminar jointly organized by the Research and Human Resources Departments with the theme: "Exchange rate policy and economic management in Nigeria- Is there need for a paradigm shift?
An Overview And Dynamics Of Financial Market Development In Nigeria And Imperatives For Exchange Rate Stability, E.U. Ukeje
Economic and Financial Review
The article discusses the important role money market plays in the economic development of any country which provides the platform for central banks to influence short-term interest rates,
Welcome Address At The Executive Seminar On "Exchange Rate Policy And Economic Management", C. Mojekwu
Welcome Address At The Executive Seminar On "Exchange Rate Policy And Economic Management", C. Mojekwu
Economic and Financial Review
This is a welcome address by the Director of Human Resources Department on the 2015 CBN executive seminar jointly organized by the Research and Human Resources Departments.
Exchange Rate Policy And Economic Management: A Theoretical Nexus, Ayodele Jimoh
Exchange Rate Policy And Economic Management: A Theoretical Nexus, Ayodele Jimoh
Economic and Financial Review
This article focused on exchange rate policy and economic management: a theoretical nexus
An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Ardl) Approach To The Oil Consumption And Growth Nexus: Nigerian Evidence, N. Inuwa, H. M. Usman
An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Ardl) Approach To The Oil Consumption And Growth Nexus: Nigerian Evidence, N. Inuwa, H. M. Usman
Economic and Financial Review
This study attempts to examine the relationship between oil consumption, carbon emission and economic growth in Nigeria covering the period 1980-2011. The study applied Dickey-Fuller Generalised Least Square (DF-GLS) unit root test and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test approach to co-integration. The bond test results reveals a long-run equilibrium relationship among oil consumption, carbon emission and economic growth. The result also showed a positive and statistically significant impact of oil consumption on economic growth. The coefficient of error correction term in the ARDL model was statistically significant, indicating that the adjustment process by which long-run equilibrium is restored after …
Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 2014, Central Bank Of Nigeria
Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 2014, Central Bank Of Nigeria
CBN Annual Report
Annual Report and Financial Statements of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for the year ended 31st December, 2014. In general, 2014 has been a very eventful and challenging year for the Bank, the country, and the world at large. In the course of the year, the Bank underwent significant changes in its governance composition. In 2014, the global economy witnessed considerable vulnerabilities characterized by fragile growth and weak economic outlook. Global growth recovery was modest and continued to be threatened by strong downside risks, as a result of sharp drop in commodity prices, escalating geo-political tensions, and heightening threats …
Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Models For Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Sarah O. Alade
Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Models For Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Sarah O. Alade
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
Short-term inflation forecasting is an essential component of the monetary policy projections at the Central Bank of Nigeria. This paper proposes four short-term headline inflation forecasting models using the SARIMA and SARIMAX processes and compares their performance using the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2011 to September 2013. According to the results the best forecasting performance is demonstrated by the model based on the all items CPI estimated using the SARIMAX model. This model is, therefore, recommended for use in short-term forecasting of headline inflation in Nigeria. The forecasting performance up to eight months ahead, of the models based on …
An Efficient Two Sample Capture-Recapture Model With High Recaptures, Danjuma Jibasen, Yusuf J. Adams
An Efficient Two Sample Capture-Recapture Model With High Recaptures, Danjuma Jibasen, Yusuf J. Adams
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper proposed an efficient two sample capture-recapture model (Ma) with high recaptures and compared it with the existing models like the model of no factor effect (Mo), behavioral response model (Mb) and the Petersen model (Ms), using simulated data. We found that the Petersen model provides a better estimate of the population size when the observations follow a hypergeometric distribution and the population is overestimated when recapture is high. It was also found that the proposed model provides a better estimator of the population size than the existing ones when the recapture is high. This model is particularly useful …
Causal Relationship Between Stock Market Index And Exchange Rate: Evidence From Nigeria, Abdulrasheed Zubair
Causal Relationship Between Stock Market Index And Exchange Rate: Evidence From Nigeria, Abdulrasheed Zubair
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper uses Johansen’s cointegration to test for the possibility of cointegration and Granger-causality to estimate the causal relationship between stock market index and monetary indicators (exchange rate and M2) before and during the global financial crisis for Nigeria, using monthly data for the period 2001–2011. Results suggest absence of long-run relationship before and during the crisis. The Granger-causality tests show a uni-directional causality running from M2 to ASI before the crisis while during the period of the crisis there is absence of causality between the variables. This suggests that ASI show responsiveness to M2. Thus, absence of the direct …
Investigating Chaos In The Nigerian Asset And Resource Management (Arm) Discovery Fund, Ibiyinka A. Fuwape, Samuel T. Ogunjo
Investigating Chaos In The Nigerian Asset And Resource Management (Arm) Discovery Fund, Ibiyinka A. Fuwape, Samuel T. Ogunjo
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper investigates chaos in a Nigerian mutual fund, Asset and Resource Management Company Limited (ARM) for a period of eleven years. The existence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the reconstruction of the phase space of the daily closing price of the fund and the delay time was quantified using mutual information function and the embedding dimension by the false nearest neighbours, where the values were identified to be 15 and 20 respectively. The presence of chaotic signals in the ARM data was further confirmed by the correlation dimension method which yielded a dimension of 2.2 …
Modeling The Nigerian Inflation Rates Using Periodogram And Fourier Series Analysis, Chukwuemeka O. Omekara,, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Micheal P. Ekerete
Modeling The Nigerian Inflation Rates Using Periodogram And Fourier Series Analysis, Chukwuemeka O. Omekara,, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Micheal P. Ekerete
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This work considers the application of Periodogram and Fourier Series Analysis to model all-items monthly inflation rates in Nigeria from 2003 to 2011. The main objectives are to identify inflation cycles, fit a suitable model to the data and make forecasts of future values. To achieve these objectives, monthly all-items inflation rates for the period were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website. Periodogram and Fourier series methods of analysis are used to analyze the data. Based on the analysis, it was found that inflation cycle within the period was fifty one (51) months, which coincides with the …
Nigerian Stock Index: A Search For Optimal Garch Model Using High Frequency Data, Olaoluwa Simon Yaya
Nigerian Stock Index: A Search For Optimal Garch Model Using High Frequency Data, Olaoluwa Simon Yaya
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper attempts to fit the best Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model for All Share Index (ASI) of Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) returns. A search is made on various GARCH variants specified on the assumptions of stationarity and asymmetry. Fractionally integrated types are also considered to capture the possibility of return series having property of long range dependency. The parameter estimations are carried out on the assumptions of normality and non-normality of GARCH innovations, with models and forecasts evaluated using information criteria and loss functions respectively. Under normality assumption, Hyperbolic GARCH (HYGARCH(1,d,1)) model is selected and Integrated GARCH (IGARCH(1,1)) …
Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria External Reserves, Iheanyichukwu S. Iwueze, Eleazar C. Nwogu, Valentine U. Nlebedim
Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria External Reserves, Iheanyichukwu S. Iwueze, Eleazar C. Nwogu, Valentine U. Nlebedim
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper discusses the levels and trend of external reserves in Nigeria. The relevance of this lies in the fact that it could help to monitor the reserves and throw early warning signal about any economic crisis. Monthly data on Nigeria external reserves for the period January 1999 to December, 2008 derived from the 2008 CBN Statistical Bulletin was analyzed using ARIMA model. Results of the analyses show that (i) the data requires logarithmic transformation to stabilize the variance and make the distribution normal (ii) the appropriate model that best describes the pattern in the transformed data is the Autoregressive- …
A Markov Decision Process Approach To Optimal Control Of A Multi-Level Hierarchical Manpower System, Akaninyene U. Udom
A Markov Decision Process Approach To Optimal Control Of A Multi-Level Hierarchical Manpower System, Akaninyene U. Udom
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
A recurrent problem in manpower control is how to attain the desired structural configuration in an optimal way, since it is possible to reach a desired structural configuration using different control inputs. The major aim of this paper is to develop a Markov Decision Process for optimal control of a Multi-level Hierarchical Manpower System (MHMS) by promotion and interdepartmental transfers. This is examined under control by intervention and contraction cost Markov Decision Process.
Does Gender Inequality Retard Productivity In Nigeria?: A Search For Evidence, P. D. Golit, O. Adesanya
Does Gender Inequality Retard Productivity In Nigeria?: A Search For Evidence, P. D. Golit, O. Adesanya
Economic and Financial Review
The paper adopted the bounds test and autoregressive distributed lag approach to evaluate the impact of gender inequality in education on real productivity in Nigeria using quarterly data from 1985 to 2011. Empirical evidence to establish the rejection of the null hypothesis of no cointegration among the variables was provided . The empirical results suggest that gender inequality in education depresses real productivity, with an output elasticity of -0.1 per cent per quarter. Further empirical evidence indicates that higher school enrolment of males enhances real productivity in Nigeria, while the influence of female school enrolment was not affirmative owing to …
Government Size And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Test Of Wagner's Hypothesis, M. Y. Dogo, U. M. Okpanachi, A. A. Muhammad, C. V. Umolu, K. J. Ajayi
Government Size And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Test Of Wagner's Hypothesis, M. Y. Dogo, U. M. Okpanachi, A. A. Muhammad, C. V. Umolu, K. J. Ajayi
Economic and Financial Review
This paper attempts an empirical validation of Wagner's law in Nigeria using quarterly data for the period 1982 to 2012. The hypothesis that real income does not Granger-cause government expenditure was rejected. Adopting the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) regression techniques, the study found support for the Wagner's hypothesis in Nigeria. The analysis provided empirical evidence to support the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic activity and government expenditure in Nigeria. Overall, the results corroborated the Goffman's version of the Wagner's law in Nigeria. Thus, government needs to create fiscal space to enable deployment of more resources …
Structural Change And Real Output Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegration Analysis, P. D. Golit
Structural Change And Real Output Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegration Analysis, P. D. Golit
Economic and Financial Review
The study employed the Johansen (1988) and the Johansen and Juselius (1990) multivariate maximum likelihood method within a Vector Autoregressive framework to explore the impact of structural reforms on the level of real output in Nigeria. We fit the equation separately for two sub-samples, the pre-reform and the market-reform periods, to enable comparisons of the outcomes under alternative policy regimes. We further estimate the model using data that covered the entire sample period to evaluate the total effects and include a dummy variable to capture the impact of the policy shift. The Johansen cointegration test confirms the existence of long-run …
Effect Of Deposit Money Banks' Credit On The Performance Of Micro, Small And Medium Enterprises In Nigeria, G. O. Evbuomwan, V. O. Okoruwa, A. E. Ikpi
Effect Of Deposit Money Banks' Credit On The Performance Of Micro, Small And Medium Enterprises In Nigeria, G. O. Evbuomwan, V. O. Okoruwa, A. E. Ikpi
Economic and Financial Review
This paper set out to empirically evaluate the effect of deposit money banks' credit on the performance of MSMEs in Nigeria, with the aid of a vector autoregression and error correction mechanism (ECM) technique. Results of the empirical investigation confirmed credit had a positive effect on GDP of MSMEs in Nigeria as the coefficient of CAM (credit to MSMEs) was positive (1.0569) and significant at 1.0 per cent level. It was, therefore, recommended that every effort should be made to improve access to credit by MSMEs, so that they could play their potential roles of employment generation and wealth creation …
Nigeria 2002- 2012: High Economic Growth Rate, High Incidence Of Poverty, Why?, Mbutor O. Mbutor, Uba, I. Al-Hassan
Nigeria 2002- 2012: High Economic Growth Rate, High Incidence Of Poverty, Why?, Mbutor O. Mbutor, Uba, I. Al-Hassan
Bullion
Contrary to the widely held opinion that it is unthinkable that the Nigerian economy would have grown at the rate it did in the last decade and yet the incidence of poverty persisted, even grew higher, growth could actually occur without increasing employment or reducing poverty. This is possible if the economy were allowed to grow without a conscious effort to direct the direction of growth to the policymakers to make concerted efforts to smoothen the path of growth and introduce policies that will make growth pro-poor programmes is the one being currently pursued by the Central Bank of Nigeria, …
Fuel Subsidy And Other Unproductive Public Expenditures Removal: A Pragmatic Approach To Restructure And Transform The Nigerian Economy, Lawrence O. Akinboyo
Fuel Subsidy And Other Unproductive Public Expenditures Removal: A Pragmatic Approach To Restructure And Transform The Nigerian Economy, Lawrence O. Akinboyo
Bullion
While the short term measures to reduce recurrent expenditure are necessary conditions for fiscal sustainability, the long term imperative is to increase revenue. Thus, efforts should be made by the fiscal authorities in Nigeria to pursue the policy of balancing of expenditure with revenue improvements. The issues of the underperformance of the capital budget should be reversed before savings from cuts in recurrent expenditure can be diverted to the financing of capital expenditure. From the analysis, we say that removal of fuel subsidy would no doubt have some social and economic hardship on the people in the short run, However, …
Design, Implications And Analysis Of Household Survey: Practical Issues To Note, O. O. Akanji
Design, Implications And Analysis Of Household Survey: Practical Issues To Note, O. O. Akanji
Bullion
This paper is to enhance the analytic processes of survey data as generated in the established household survey framework for economic policy management and decision making. The paper is divided into four sections. Section 1 is the introduction while Section 2 is the descriptive statistics emphasizing the models that bring out the relationship between the survey variables, Section 4 concludes and proffers recommendations.
Unemployment And Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Empirical Re-Examination, Emmanuel Ating Onwioduokit
Unemployment And Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Empirical Re-Examination, Emmanuel Ating Onwioduokit
Bullion
This paper investigates the relationship between unemployment and economic growth in Nigeria through the implementation of the Okun’s law using the data from 1980 to 2013. The result indicates that the Okun’s law cannot be confirmed for Nigeria as the Okun’s co-efficient though properly signed was not significant at conventional level. As a result economic policies allied to demand management might not have the desired outcome of reducing unemployment in the country. Thus, the implementation of economic policy learning towards structural change and reforms in the labour market would be more appropriate to reduce unemployment in Nigeria.
An Empirical Estimate Of The Optimal Level Of Fiscal Deficit In Guinea, Emmanuel A. Onwioduokit
An Empirical Estimate Of The Optimal Level Of Fiscal Deficit In Guinea, Emmanuel A. Onwioduokit
Economic and Financial Review
Excessive deficits, irrespective of the mode of financing, are assumed to be growth retarding. The conventional wisdom is that high budget deficit is a source of economic instability. Empirical research, however, does not conclusively support this conventional wisdom; results are mixed and controversial across countries . These conflicting results have raised the important question of heterogeneity and also underscored the usefulness of time series data for country specific studies in order to address heterogeneity. This paper sought to ascertain the relationship between fiscal deficits and economic growth in Guinea and to find the threshold level of fiscal, deficit that is …
Financing Nigeria's Growth After The Global Economic Crisis Within The Perspective Of Vision 20:2020 And The Transformation Agenda, Babatunde Lawal
Financing Nigeria's Growth After The Global Economic Crisis Within The Perspective Of Vision 20:2020 And The Transformation Agenda, Babatunde Lawal
Economic and Financial Review
The paper adopts content analysis method to investigate the underlying assumptions of the pillar of growth within the framework of Nigeria Vision 20:2020 (NV20:2020) and the transformation agenda. The aim is to show how realistic the underlying assumptions are and whether or not the available structure/measures of the financial system would be sufficient to finance the Vision. The conclusion is that the present Transformation Agenda and indeed the Medium-Term Implementation Plans adequately provide for the financing of NV20:2020 if the provisions of the documents are strictly adhered to.
Financing The Real Sector For Sustainable Economic Growth In Nigeria: Performance, Challenges And Prospects, O. B. Obembe
Financing The Real Sector For Sustainable Economic Growth In Nigeria: Performance, Challenges And Prospects, O. B. Obembe
Economic and Financial Review
This paper examines some of the challenges constraining the financial sector in stimulating sustainable growth in Nigeria. It observes that for a successful real sector financing in Nigeria, a culture of accountability and transparency in the conduct of our national affairs must be taken seriously. The quality of governance must also be improved, to ensure that the legal framework for economic activities is well strengthened, such that the protection of creditors‘ rights may not be jeopardised.
Financing Inclusive Growth In Nigeria: Challenges And Prospects, Sheriff A. Tella, Patrick I. Esenwah
Financing Inclusive Growth In Nigeria: Challenges And Prospects, Sheriff A. Tella, Patrick I. Esenwah
Economic and Financial Review
This paper is divided into four Sections. The first is the introduction and definition of the title of the article, next is Section 2, which contains literature on theoretical construct on economic growth and development models, including Inclusive Growth (IG) model while in Section 3 we present the role of money in economic growth. Section 4 looks at models of financial inclusion and evidence of financing inclusive growth in some developing countries. In Section 5, we identified challenges and prospects for financing inclusive growth in Nigeria. Section 5 is the concluding remark where some recommendations are proposed for successful inclusive …
Finance For Growth And Policy Options For Emerging And Developing Economies: Nigeria, Wumi Olayiwola, Henry Okoduwa, Evans Osabuohien
Finance For Growth And Policy Options For Emerging And Developing Economies: Nigeria, Wumi Olayiwola, Henry Okoduwa, Evans Osabuohien
Economic and Financial Review
This paper attempts to address the issues of the major impediments to mobilising investment funds, and the appropriate policies for achieving and guaranteeing finance for growth, by assessing the performance of financial policies of selected EMEs in mobilising financial resources for economic growth, and identifying policy options necessary for achieving finance for growth. The rest of the paper is organised as follows. Section 2 discusses the basic characteristics of emerging economies (EMEs), and Section 3 positions Nigeria among the EMEs within the context of finance for growth. Section 4 deals with challenges and constraints of Nigeria in achieving finance for …
Contributions Of Financial Sector Reforms And Credit Supply To Nigerian Agricultural Sector (1978-2009), Anthony O. Onoja, M. E. Onu, S. Ajodo-Ohiemi
Contributions Of Financial Sector Reforms And Credit Supply To Nigerian Agricultural Sector (1978-2009), Anthony O. Onoja, M. E. Onu, S. Ajodo-Ohiemi
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study analyzed the trends and pattern of institutional credit supply to agriculture during pre- and post-financial reforms along with their determinants. It then compared the effects of reform policies on access to institutional credits in Nigerian agricultural sector before and after the reforms (1978 - 1985; and 1986 -2009). Relying mainly on time series data from CBN and NBS, it used ordinary least squares method (linear, semi-log and double log) to model the determinants of banking sector lending to the agricultural sector during the review period. The models were subjected to several econometric tests before accepting one. Chow test …
Determinants Of Foreign Reserves In Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach, David Irefin, Baba N. Yaaba
Determinants Of Foreign Reserves In Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach, David Irefin, Baba N. Yaaba
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
On global scale, central banks’ holdings of foreign reserves have escalated sharply in recent years. World international reserves holdings have risen significantly from US$1.2 trillion in 1995 to nearly US$10.0 trillion in June 2011. Dominant among these reserves are concentrated in the hands of few countries. Ten major holders of foreign reserves are mostly from Asia. Oil exporting countries in Africa and the Middle East are not left out in this trend. Nigeria’s foreign reserves rose from US$5.5 billion in 1999 to US$62.40 billion in July 2008, making Nigeria the twenty-fourth largest reserves holder in the world. This pace of …
Effects Of Exchange Rate Movements On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Eme O. Akpan, Johnson A. Atan
Effects Of Exchange Rate Movements On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Eme O. Akpan, Johnson A. Atan
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study investigates the effect of exchange rate movements on real output growth in Nigeria. Based on quarterly series for the period 1986 to 2010, the paper examines the possible direct and indirect relationship between exchange rates and GDP growth. The relationship is derived in two ways using a simultaneous equations model within a fully specified (but small) macroeconomic model. A Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) technique was explored. The estimation results suggest that there is no evidence of a strong direct relationship between changes in exchange rate and output growth. Rather, Nigeria’s economic growth has been directly affected by …