Finance Commons^™

Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy Communication: Evidence From Textual Analysis Of Daily Newspaper Articles, Bisrat Abebe Woldesilassie

Dissertations

Monetary policy communication has become a crucial tool for central banks to shape market expectations and enhance transparency. The goal of this paper is to measure how effectively the Fed communicates monetary policy through FOMC minutes by analyzing the impact of the release of FOMC minutes on financial markets through textual sentiment analysis of daily newspaper articles. I measure the surprise in the daily news sentiment that is caused by FOMC minutes release. The surprise in the sentiment is calculated as the change in the news sentiment that is measured over three weeks prior to the release of the FOMC …

The Relationship Between Government Bailouts And Risk-Taking Behavior In Banks: A Case Study From The Great Financial Crisis Of 2008-09, Derek J. Cameron

Economics Working Papers

This study seeks to determine whether the expectation of a government bailout in the event of a crisis incentivizes ex ante risk-taking in banks. Although this subject has been the subject of extensive research in both economics and finance, this specific paper differs from existing literature in that it uses a strictly empirical methodology with minimal theoretical modeling and few assumptions about the banking sector, while also considering the entire banking sector and limiting itself exclusively to ex ante bank investment decisions. This study employs data compiled from various sources about 11 American banks of various sizes between January 2002 …

Interest Rate Lecture, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). APE II interest rate lecture (Handwritten notes).
• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Gibson's paradox (Unpublished manuscript).
• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Interest rate patterns (Unpublished manuscript).

Fiscal And Monetary Policies For Inclusive Growth In Developing And Emerging Markets, Collins Anosike

Journal of Global Awareness

The study examined the effects of monetary and fiscal policies in attaining inclusive growth for some developing countries and emerging markets. The study selected 20 countries and grouped them into group one and group two. The study is unique because it captures a broader range of countries compared to previous studies and shows their effect on economic growth. We use panel data and employ OLS regression and Johansen cointegration. We examine how each variable, general government expenditure, gross national expenditure, total revenue, official exchange rate, broad money, and deposit interest rate, affects the dependent variable (real GDP) from 1980 to …

Notes From The Editor, Jay Nathan

Journal of Global Awareness

No abstract provided.

Letter From The Editor, Jay Nathan

Journal of Global Awareness

No abstract provided.

Technological Innovation, Industrial Development And Financial Support, Yiming Wang

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

Currently, the new round of technological revolution is accelerating its breakthroughs, and scientific and technological innovation has become the main battlefield for the competition among major countries. Facing increasingly fierce international competition in science and technology, China must strengthen the orientation of original innovation in scientific research and technological development, shift from “catching up” to “keeping pace” and “taking the lead” in more fields, from innovation in terminal products to breakthroughs in key core technologies, and from integrated innovation to original innovation. In recent years, China’s industrial competitiveness has significantly enhanced, mainly due to the gradual formation of advantages such …

Undertaking Short-Term Finance Transactions In Brazil - An Historic And Modern Look At The Brazilian Economy And Associated Risks, Shawn M. D'Aversa

Student Research

The following report discusses the risks and construction of a hypothetical short-term trade finance transaction involving the five parties: Citibank N.A., Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), Banco Do Brasil, Paracatu Gold Mine and EXIM Bank. Fair warning: this is a long paper for a short-term transaction.

For the deal, Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) has approached Citibank N.A. in New York regarding a financing transaction for five 797F-400 short-ton haul trucks. The trucks are worth $5mn each, including the costs of training and spare parts, for a total of $25mn. Put simply, the trucks are beasts for mining. They will then be shipped to …

Gender And Grades: The Gap In How Men And Women Fear Economic Collapse, Riley O'Connor

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

Due to prescribed gender roles in society and wage gaps, historically, women have had to rely on spouses and family for economic survival. Now, with access to higher education and increased salaries, their economic fears are shifting. In this paper I analyze the extent of the gender gap in the fear of economic and financial collapse of Americans. Using the Chapman Survey of American Fear, an original data set surveying the degree to which American adults fear incidents collected in spring of 2025, men and women of the same education fear economic collapse differently, signifying men fear economic collapse less …

Essays In Household And International Finance, Tatiana Vdovina

Olin Business School Graduate Student Theses and Dissertations

In my first essay, I study whether U.S.-Mexico dual residents borrow in pesos or dollars, using both theory and survey data. I attempt to understand the microeconomic and behavioral foundations of the actual and theory-predicted currency choice by households. I also attempt to reconcile the export- and import-related theory of currency choice proposed in the corporate finance literature with behavioral tests. Finally, I test the nominal uncovered interest parity condition established in McBrady & Schill [1] in a household setting by analyzing if there can be any cost savings from borrowing in dollars over pesos and vice versa. Theoretically, I …

The Economics Of Technical Debt: Venture Capital, Cybersecurity, And Engineering Quality, Joao Henrique Avila Alves Dimas

Olin Business School Graduate Student Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation studies the economic consequences of technical debt—the accumulated cost of expedient engineering decisions in a firm’s software codebase—and how external forces shape it. Using direct codebase analysis of over 80,000 monthly snapshots from 600+ open-core technology firms (2010–2025), I develop the first dollar-denominated measure of technical debt in the finance literature and apply it across two empirical settings. Chapter 1 examines whether venture capital monitoring extends to firms’ technical practices. Using a stacked difference-in-differences design around first VC entry (225 treated firms, 330 controls, 85 cohorts), I find that VC-backed firms reduce critical code defect density by 24% …

Essays In Empirical Asset Pricing, Songrun He

Olin Business School Graduate Student Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation examines several empirical asset pricing questions using around-the-clock high-frequency data, financial text, and AI methods. The first chapter studies systematic jump risk in equity markets by linking around-the-clock market jumps to contemporaneous news narratives identified with a reasoning large language model, and finds substantial heterogeneity in risk premia across jump types. The second chapter addresses lookahead bias in financial text analysis by developing chronologically consistent language models and showing that they perform well in both standard language tasks and asset pricing applications. The third chapter studies cryptocurrency perpetual futures, derives no-arbitrage benchmark prices under realistic payoff assumptions, and …

The Impact Of Monetary Policy Announcements On Trading Reactions To Earnings Reports, Sean A. Maxfield

Economics Honors Projects

This paper examines trading reactions to quarterly earnings reports and the impact of recent monetary policy announcements by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). It argues that the market, as a product of rational and irrational investor behavior, interprets firms’ financial performance within a broader macroeconomic context, affirming the causal channels found in similar studies. This study differs from prior research by looking at the recent, not simultaneous, monetary policy announcement for each earnings announcement in order to understand if the two types of information remain complementary. By conducting an event study model, this study confirms that the interaction of …

Exploring The Impact Of Poverty On Financial Literacy: The Role Of Parental Education In College Student Financial Behavior, Zoe Williams

Honors Theses

Many college students experience financial stress, yet financial hardship is often explained as a simple lack of financial knowledge. Recent research suggests that how students are socialized around money may matter just as much as what they know. In this study, I examined whether parental education, specifically first-generation college status, changes the relationship between household income and financial health among undergraduate students at a regional public university in the southeastern United States. Participants included 204 undergraduates recruited through the university research pool. Students reported household income (categorized as < $50,000 or >$50,000), first-generation status, and financial behaviors. Financial literacy was measured using an …

Multinational Investment Activity Under Policy Uncertainty In Host And Competing Countries, Daisoon Kim, Sunhyung Lee

Department of Economics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

This paper examines how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in host and competing countries reshapes U.S. multinationals’ greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI). Using firm–destination level data from 2003 to 2021, we show that while host-country EPU deters investment, EPU in competing destinations attracts it through a spillover effect. We document a structural shift around 2015: as global EPU rose unevenly, the spillover effect from competitors became the dominant driver of investment decisions, supplanting the direct effect of host-country policy instability. Our findings indicate that in an era of heightened global uncertainty and risk, FDI allocation is governed by relative, not just …

Red, White, And Broke: A Call For Accountability In Government, Mary A. Scott

Honors Theses

This study examines the scale of waste, fraud, and abuse in U.S. federal spending. The purpose of this research is to clarify how fiscal management in the federal government is intended to operate versus how it actually functions. Using a combination of conceptual analysis, existing literature, case-based evidence, and data analysis, findings suggest that the persistence of oversight failures arises from weak implementation, limited enforcement authority of oversight bodies, and an emphasis on recovery rather than prevention practices. This study contributes to the broader discussion of public finance by providing an accessible framework to understand why the foundational federal principle …

Manipulation Or Monetization?: The Rise Of Stock Buybacks And Their Effects On Firm Valuation And Investment, Thomas H. Serrano

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

Abstract:

This thesis uses basic econometrics to examine the relationship between stock buybacks, firm valuation, and investment among publicly traded firms from 2000-2024. Using firm-level data pulled from Compustat North America and a fixed-effect multivariate regression, it evaluates whether buybacks are associated with higher valuation and stronger productive investment as defined in the paper. The results show that buybacks are positively associated with firm valuation the first year that they occur, but the relationship disappears when they are lagged for a year. Furthermore, the analysis does not find strong statistical evidence that repurchases are associated with changes in investment, or …

Two Essays On Finance: The Dark Side Of The Ceo Inside Debt: Evidence From Stock Price Crash Risk And Cybersecurity Risk And Corporate Bond Yield Spreads, Amir Gholami

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation comprises of two papers. In the first paper, I found that despite being thought of as a governance mechanism, CEO inside debt seems to distort firms’ information environment. My results indicate that the CEO inside debt creates an incentive for managers to hoard bad news to prevent technical defaults, leading to increasing stock price crash risk. My results are robust after addressing endogeneity using the instrumental variable (IV) approach, a difference-in-differences test based on the implementation of Internal Revenue Code Section 409A Final Regulations, and Oster’s omitted variable diagnostic test, and selection bias using the propensity score matching …

Two Essays On Finance: Co-Opted Directors And Mergers And Acquisitions And The Impact Of Biodiversity Risk On The Cost Of Bank Loans, Fariba Gholami

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation comprises of two papers. In the first paper, co-opted board members, those appointed after the CEO assumes office, are poor monitors and, contrary to prior assumptions, ineffective advisors. I show that board co-option is associated with suboptimal merger and acquisition (M&A) decisions, adverse deal characteristics, and lower acquirer’s short- and long term returns and operating performance. These results are robust to the use of propensity score matching, entropy balancing, Instrumental variable using 2SLS, and difference-in-differences to address selection bias and endogeneity. Cross-sectional evidence indicates that the negative effects of board co-option are more pronounced when boards are less …

Bitcoin Options Risk-Reversal Predictability, Meng Hwee Neo

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation examines whether Bitcoin options risk-reversal (RR) spreads predict future Bitcoin returns, using daily Deribit data from April 2021 to December 2025 (1,723 observations).

In the primary 25-delta, 90-day specification, the RR coefficient is significant at the 1% level in a thirteen-variable baseline regression with Newey–West standard errors. Robustness tests across all available delta–tenor specifications show statistically significant RR coefficients in the majority of configurations, concentrating in the 30–180-day maturity band.

The butterfly spread (BF) also predicts returns. Both remain significant after controls are added: the RR t-statistic increases from 1.91 (univariate) to 3.73 (full baseline), and the BF …

Essays On Money Search Models, Fangfang Gong

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation comprises three papers that use money search models to revisit the distributional welfare costs of inflation, study the optimal design of a central bank digital currency (CBDC), and investigate the role of liquidity and monetary policy in initial investment and capital reallocation in secondary markets.

The second chapter develops a micro-founded general equilibrium model of payments to revisit the distributional welfare costs of inflation. We consider different cost structures incurred by merchants when accepting cash and deposits. In equilibrium, there exists a cutoff for buyers’ money holdings, above which card payments are accepted by merchants. We calibrate the …

Financial Technology And Household Wealth, Rongbo Zhou

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

With the spread of mobile payment platforms in China, the micro-foundations of household financial behaviour have been reshaped, and this change is increasingly reflected in household property income. Based on microdata from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) for 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2021, this dissertation examines how mobile payment use affects household property income, through which channels this effect is transmitted, and how its impact differs across household groups, regional conditions, and macro-financial environments.

The empirical results show a positive association between the use of mobile payment platforms and household property income. This conclusion remains robust after controlling for …

Credit Accessibility In Diverse Urban Communities And The Dynamics Of Their Lending Markets: The Case Of Minority Depository Institutions, Noara Razzak

All Dissertations

In my dissertation, I study credit access in diverse urban communities, the role of the financial institutions that serve them, such as Minority Depository Institutions (MDIs) and non-MDIs. The first chapter studies the effect of bank branch closures (both MDIs and non-MDIs) on credit access in these diverse urban communities. MDIs are US community banks that are owned and operated by minority populations, such as Black-owned, Asian-owned, Hispanic-owned banks or Native-owned banks. The second chapter studies the proximity of Black-owned banks to historically segregated urban neighborhoods. More specifically I study whether surviving Black-owned banks are more likely to be present …

Performance-Based Budgeting Implementation Strategies For Improving Financial Performance, Waleed Ibrahim Alsyaegh

Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies

The lack of effective strategies for allocating organizational financial resources can lead to adverse business outcomes. Business managers are concerned about the ineffective allocation of financial resources, as it can impede financial performance and sustainability.Grounded in stakeholder theory, the purpose of this qualitative single-case study was to explore the performance-based budgeting strategies that business managers use to sustain financial profitability. The participants were 10 business managers who oversee subsidiaries that successfully implemented performance-based budgeting.Data were collected through semistructured interviews and the review of organization documents. Through thematic analysis, four themes were identified: (a) traditional versus contemporary budgeting; (b) importance of …

Relationship Between Change In Unrealized Gains Or Losses Of Afs Securities And Credit Spreads Of U.S. Life Insurance Companies, Kwang Liang Yeo

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This study evaluates the transmission of unrealized fair value accounting losses to credit default risk within the United States life insurance sector during a period of unprecedented monetary tightening. Integrating a pre-specified confirmatory econometric framework with a text-based exploratory analysis of regulatory filings, we examine how changes in Other Comprehensive Income (OCI) and benchmark interest rate dynamics shape market perceptions of insurer default probability. Our findings reveal that credit default swap markets do not price OCI variations contemporaneously; instead, they reflect a structural one-quarter pricing lag that aligns with the regulatory timeline of financial disclosures. Furthermore, the relationship between interest …

Research On The Impact Of Industrial-Financial Cooperation On Corporate R&D Investment, Jiayin Yin

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

The national industrial-financial cooperation pilot policy represents a key strategic initiative to implement China's strategy of building a "financial powerhouse" and guide financial resources toward empowering high-quality development in the real economy. In December 2016, four central government departments in China jointly announced the first batch of national industrial-financial cooperation pilot cities. Leveraging this quasi-natural experiment, this study comprehensively evaluates the impact of the pilot policy on corporate R&D investment activities using a sample of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2014 to 2019.

Research findings indicate: (1) The industrial-financial cooperation pilot policy significantly increases enterprises' R&D investment levels. Specifically, compared …

Financial Literacy And Fraud Vulnerability In Digital Finance: Evidence From The 2024 Nfcs, Mercedes Palacios Diaz

Posters - 2026

Digital finance has expanded rapidly through fintech platforms and cryptocurrency markets, increasing access to financial services while also exposing individuals to higher levels of financial fraud. Most research treats fraud vulnerability as a single outcome, without distinguishing between financial loss and the ability to recognize scams. This study examines how financial literacy shapes fraud vulnerability through its effects on fraud victimization and scam awareness, highlighting its dual role in reducing financial losses and improving scam recognition. Fraud vulnerability is therefore analyzed across two distinct dimensions: realized financial loss and scam awareness.

Does Short-Termism Pay? National Short-Termism, Investment, Innovation, And Equity Returns, Andrew H. Cohen

Theses and Dissertations in Business Administration

We examine whether national short-termism, inferred from corporate language, predicts future real activity, equity returns, risk, and risk-adjusted performance. Using large-scale textual analysis of issuer-linked disclosures and earnings transcripts from the largest firms in twenty major equity markets, we construct country-quarter and annual Short-Termism Scores (STS) capturing the relative emphasis on short- versus long-horizon language.

Higher short-termism predicts lower subsequent gross fixed capital formation, lower research and development intensity, and lower multi-year equity index returns across horizons of up to sixteen quarters. In addition, higher short-termism is associated with greater future market volatility and lower Sharpe ratios, indicating a deterioration …

Macroprudential Easing Measures In The Context Of Contractionary Monetary Policy: The Case Of Brazil In 2014, Marcos Antonio Paliari, Marcos Roberto Vasconcelos

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

This paper evaluates the effects of a macroprudential policy of regulatory easing implemented amidst a contractionary monetary policy in Brazil. The intervention, carried out by the Central Bank in the third quarter of 2014, relaxed reserve requirements on time deposits to stimulate bank credit for vehicle financing. Using a Difference-in-Differences approach with fixed effects by credit modality and month, the analysis is based on monthly disbursement data for consumer loans from 2011 to 2018. Twelve rolling monthly windows are used to capture the dynamic evolution of the policy’s effects. Results based on a synthetic control group indicate statistically significant and …

Reasoning On Time-Series For Financial Technical Analysis, Kelvin J. L. Koa, Jan Chen, Yunshan Ma, Huanhuan Zheng, Tat-Seng Chua

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

While Large Language Models have been used to produce interpretable stock forecasts, they mainly focus on analyzing textual reports but not historical price data, also known as Technical Analysis. This task is challenging as it switches between domains: the stock price inputs and outputs lie in the time-series domain, while the reasoning step should be in natural language. In this work, we introduce Verbal Technical Analysis (VTA), a novel framework that combine verbal and latent reasoning to produce stock time-series forecasts that are both accurate and interpretable. To reason over time-series, we convert stock price data into textual annotations and …