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Entire Volume Journal Of Banking And Financial Economics 2024, 1(21)

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

Entire Volume Journal of Banking and Financial Economics 2024, 1(21)

Betting On The Market: The Influence Of Match-Day Odds On Price Reactions Of European Football Clubs, Pascal Alterauge, Marc Mehlhorn

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

This research investigates the relationship between football match outcomes, betting odds and the stock prices of publicly traded European football clubs, spanning from 11 February 2004 to 7 April 2022. Drawing data from 12 major European and publicly traded clubs, the study utilised betting odds as a key metric. These odds, aggregated from the Odds Portal, serve as a gauge for expected versus unexpected match outcomes. Preliminary findings showed a market value increase of 0.44% after a win and a decrease of 1.08% post-defeat. Moreover, deviations from betting odds predictions significantly influenced stock prices, with unexpected wins and losses resulting …

Euro-Denominated Credit Liquidity: Tracing Cyclical Phases In Global Finance, Mateusz Mariusz Mierzejewski

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

In the past few years, set against the backdrop of pandemic mitigation efforts and the resultant inflationary spike, the macrofinancial landscape has undergone significant transformation. The tightening of monetary policy by global central banks in response to these phenomena has notably affected global financial liquidity, particularly within the realm of foreign currency lending. This article delves into the shifts in credit liquidity, centering on the Global Liquidity Index for euro-denominated loans across European Union nations over the last two decades. Through the application of the Fourier Transform, we analyse the cyclical patterns within the index and delineate the primary phases …

European Union Sanctions Impact On The Sector Stock Prices – The Ukrainian War Effect?, Patrycja Chodnicka, Piotr Jaworski, Marcin Kot

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

The aim of this paper is to analyze the current impact of the implementation of the European Union sanctions related to the Ukrainian War on the abnormal rates of return on the stock prices of companies listed on the stock exchanges. It was hypothesized that the implementation of the European Union sanctions related to the Ukrainian War is causing the varied abnormal rates of return on the stock prices of companies listed on the stock exchanges, taking into consideration the type of sector and the geographical proximity to the military conflict. The analysis used panel data event studies prepared using …

Expansionary Federal Monetary Policy And U.S. Banks’ Risk Profiles During The Covid-19 Pandemic-Induced Economic Recession, Maoyong Zheng, Cesar Escalante

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

This study focuses on the pandemic phase when the U.S. economy dealt with significant economic recessionary pressures due to widespread, prolonged social mobility restraints. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) promptly pursued expansionary policies, such as lowering the federal funds rate to almost zero until February 2022. This study employs a Dynamic Panel Data Generalised Moment Method Model (DPD-GMM) to analyse the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic’s economic shocks and FOMC’s expansionary policy on U.S. banks’ loan portfolio and asset complement risk profiles. Our analysis extends from two pre-pandemic years through the pandemic recession and recovery periods (until early 2022) …

Government Subsidy In The U.S. Mortgage Market: A Structural Analysis With Bunching, Bowen Shi, Yunhui Zhao

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

It is crucial to better understand the U.S. residential mortgage market, where the global financial crisis originated. In this paper, we develop an infinite-horizon continuous-time structural model to study the effects of the longstanding and widespread Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) mortgage default insurance subsidy on U.S. mortgage underwriters’ equilibrium lending behaviour. Despite the richness of the model, we obtain analytical solutions for the equilibrium loan size and interest rate. We then employ truncated loan-level data to estimate the subsidy’s magnitude using maximum likelihood by exploiting a distinctive data feature that many borrowers bunch at the subsidy eligibility cutoff. We find that …

Indirect Measure Of Financial Constraints: Evidence From Unquoted Innovative Smes, Katarzyna Prędkiewicz

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

This paper examines whether companies’ innovativeness affects the availability of capital and, therefore, whether this group is financially constrained. It uses an objective, indirect way of measuring financial constraints based on the assumption that financially restricted firms only invest when internal cash flow allows them to do so. Therefore, the research was based on the investment-cash flow equation, more precisely the adjusted ECM model adapted to the SME sector. The companies’ innovativeness was measured based on a proprietary synthetic indicator covering a broad range of information on innovation activity. The research was conducted on a sample of 403 firms, including …

The Planned Reforms Of The American And European Deposit Insurance Systems: Similarities And Differences, Konrad Szeląg

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

Last year, at around the same time, two reforms of deposit insurance systems were announced – one in the United States and the other in the European Union. The American proposal of the reform was triggered by the banking crisis of March 2023 (bank runs and failures) and it was put forward by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in May 2023. In Europe, the European Commission published in April 2023 its legislative proposal to reform the current EU framework for crisis management in the banking sector (including both deposit insurance and bank resolution). The EU proposal for the reform was …

Journal Of Banking And Financial Economics 2024, 2(22)

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics 2024, 2(22)

Essays On Public Finance And International Finance, Deepti Sikri

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

The first chapter examines New York State's Fiscal Score Monitoring program to find the effect of two quality labels on school district outcomes: fiscal stress scores, reflecting the budget solvency, and environmental stress labels reflecting economic and demographic conditions. Using the NYS school district data from 2013-22, I employ the regression discontinuity design to find the effect of stress labels, in response to the political pressure on district finances, housing, and school outcomes. I find the effect of fiscal stress label is limited, leading to a decrease in the fund balance ratio and an increase in the tax rate. However, …

Three Essays On The Impact Of Debt On Young American Adults’ Lives After Graduation, Sylvie Sanou

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation investigates the impact of financial constraints due to debt on three aspects of young American adults' lives after graduation. The first essay examines the impact of student loan debt on the mental health of US young adults using restricted-access and publicly available data from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97). Prior studies found that debt negatively affects mental health. However, few papers focused on educational debt. Unlike other debt, student loan debt is special because it funds human capital investment, and borrowers expect to receive a significant return on the investment. Using a two-stage estimation model, …

Univariate Extreme Value Analysis Of Quantitative Investment Management, George Agbenyega Zumanu

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

The evolution of product development within the variable annuity (VA) business have sparked interest in quantitative investment management, particularly as most VA issuers have integrated volatility-controlled funds into their annuity portfolios. Despite the existence of empirical research on statistical analysis of extreme values in conventional investments, there has been a notable gap in research focus towards risk modeling in volatility-controlled funds.

This study contributes by analyzing and modeling the extreme values of investments in volatility-controlled funds, comparing them to conventional equity funds. The financial returns of S&P Dow Jones Indices (SPDJI) indices - SPXTR, risk control SPXT18UT, and managed risk …

Essays On Computational And Financial Economics, Mohammadreza Mahmoudi

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation comprises three essays centered on computational and financial economics, addressing the economic implications of the COVID-19 pandemic, the interplay between monetary policy and the cryptocurrency market, and the strategies for cryptocurrency portfolio optimization.

In the first essay, the spotlight is cast on the U.S. government's response to the COVID-19 pandemic and its subsequent economic ramifications. The study meticulously assesses the implemented uniform pandemic control policies and contrasts them with potential targeted measures. These targeted strategies take into account the differential effects of the virus on various age demographics. By employing the adjusted SEQIHR model as a tool for …

Optimal Nonparametric Range-Based Volatility Estimation, Tim Bollerslev, Jia Li, Qiyuan Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

We present a general framework for optimal nonparametric spot volatility estimation based on intraday range data, comprised of the first, highest, lowest, and last price over a given time-interval. We rely on a decision-theoretic approach together with a coupling-type argument to directly tailor the form of the nonparametric estimator to the specific volatility measure of interest and relevant loss function. The resulting new optimal estimators offer substantial efficiency gains compared to existing commonly used range-based procedures.

Robust Testing For Explosive Behavior With Strongly Dependent Errors, Yui Lim Lui, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A heteroskedasticity-autocorrelation robust (HAR) test statistic is proposed to test for the presence of explosive roots in financial or real asset prices when the equation errors are strongly dependent. Limit theory for the test statistic is developed and extended to heteroskedastic models. The new test has stable size properties unlike conventional test statistics that typically lead to size distortion and inconsistency in the presence of strongly dependent equation errors. The new procedure can be used to consistently time-stamp the origination and termination of an explosive episode under similar conditions of long memory errors. Simulations are conducted to assess the finite …

Optimal Empirical Strategy For Deriving The Spot Curve: The Case Of Poland, Piotr Bartkiewicz

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

We use a proprietary dataset of daily quotations of individual bonds from the period 2005–2018 to assess the appropriateness of three common yield curve intrapolation methods: Nelson-Siegel (NS), Diebold-Li (DL) and cubic splines. Spot (zero-coupon) yield curves derived from the methods are used to price all securities in the sample in both in-sample and out-of-sample settings. The results highlight trade-offs inherent in any empirical strategy: between flexibility and in-sample fit, between overall fit and fit in particular segments of the curve. We look at both in-sample and out-of-sample. Cubic splines offer the best in-sample fit, but out-of-sample results indicate that …

Market For Manipulable Information, Hui Chen, Jian Sun

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study how investors, firms, and information sellers interact in a market with manipulable information. To better predict the firm characteristics they care about, investors can buy a score from a monopolistic information seller, which aggregates signals that are subject to firm manipulation. The average degree of signal manipulability has no effect on the equilibrium, while the uncertainty about manipulability becomes a new source of noise. Its contribution depends on firms' incentive to manipulate the signals, which in turn depends on the equilibrium price sensitivity to the score. The optimal design of the score weighs signal precision against the endogenous …

Essays On Consumption Dynamics, Shaun M. Gilyard

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

This dissertation, titled "Essays on Consumption Dynamics," comprises three chapters delving into consumer behavior within the context of household financial management. It sheds light on how consumers navigate their budgets concerning daily expenses, particularly around bill payments, and examines the potential influence of household financial holdings on the redistribution effects of monetary policy.

The first chapter delves into how consumers strategically handle their budgets in proximity to bill payments. Analyzing daily transaction-level data containing detailed expenditure information, it reveals a trend of consumers deferring non-bill expenditures until after bill payments. Spending spikes by 41% - 51% above average on the …

Hubris Or Talent? Estimating The Role Of Overconfidence In Chinese Households’ Investment Decisions, Jing Xu, Maroula Khraiche, Xi Mao, Xuan Wang

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We document the extent to which overconfidence in one’s financial literacy (FL overconfidence) plays a role in households’ reported financial risk aversion and their actual investment behavior, using data from the China Household Finance Survey. We measure FL overconfidence by estimating the gap between people’s self-reported financial literacy and their objectively measured financial knowledge. Our results indicate that FL overconfidence is negatively associated with self-reported financial risk aversion. Additionally, FL overconfidence is positively associated with the likelihood of having a brokerage account, holding risky financial instruments (other than just stock), and a proportion of assets allocated towards risky assets. We …

Late-Arriving Votes And Electoral Fraud: A Natural Experiment And Regression Discontinuity Evidence From Bolivia, Diego Escobari, Gary A. Hoover

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This paper uses a unique data set and a natural experiment to test if electoral fraud can exist in late-arriving votes. On the night of the 2019 Bolivian elections, the official vote counting system that was expected to publish the results real-time, suddenly stopped. When it resumed, the results had flipped. We estimate several difference-in-differences specifications using a 2016 referendum and the votes of other political parties. We find that the extent of the fraud is 2.51% of the valid votes, sufficient to change the outcome of the election. Our results are robust to polling-station-level shocks common across 2019 and …

Entrepreneurship, Resource Rents And Institutions, André Varella Mollick, Lu Sui

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

The resource curse hypothesis supposes that rents generated by resource booms create opportunities for rent-seeking activities, which weaken innovation and economic development due to the potentially adverse effects in competitive markets. The quality of institutions is an important channel to transform society from a rent-seeking economy to an entrepreneurial economy. We address in this paper these channels by examining necessity, opportunity, productive and innovative measures of entrepreneurship. Using annual data from 2002 to 2017, we estimate the relationship between entrepreneurship and natural resource rents for 60 countries. Allowing for measures of institutions (corruption, government policies, and cultural and social norms) …

Endogenous Immigration Policy In A Stylized Political Economy, Armando R. Lopez-Velasco

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

The following sections are included:

• Introduction

• A Political Economic Model of Immigration

  • The economic environment

  • Preferences of the old

  • Preferences of the young

  • Types of equilibria

• Applications and Extensions

  • Aging

  • The model under periodic fertility rates: Baby booms and baby busts

  • Immigration and dynamic efficiency

• Conclusions

• References

• Appendix

  • The indirect utility function of the young as a function of wt, Rt+1 and bt+1

  • Proof that b t + 1 R t + 1 is given by τ ( 1 − α ) α s t

  • Derivation of the young agent’s indirect utility function (Equation …

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