Finance Commons^™

Machine Learning For Stock Prediction Based On Fundamental Analysis, Yuxuan Huang, Luiz Fernando Capretz, Danny Ho

Electrical and Computer Engineering Publications

Application of machine learning for stock prediction is attracting a lot of attention in recent years. A large amount of research has been conducted in this area and multiple existing results have shown that machine learning methods could be successfully used toward stock predicting using stocks’ historical data. Most of these existing approaches have focused on short term prediction using stocks’ historical price and technical indicators. In this paper, we prepared 22 years’ worth of stock quarterly financial data and investigated three machine learning algorithms: Feed-forward Neural Network (FNN), Random Forest (RF) and Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for …

(R1505) A Note On Large Deviations In Insurance Risk, Stefan Gerhold

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

We study large and moderate deviations for an insurance portfolio, with the number of claims tending to infinity, without assuming identically distributed claims. The crucial assumption is that the centered claims are bounded, and that variances are bounded below. From a general large deviations upper bound, we obtain an exponential bound for the probability of the average loss exceeding a threshold. A counterexample shows that a full large deviation principle, including also a lower bound, does not follow from our assumptions. We argue that our assumptions make sense, in particular, for life insurance portfolios and discuss how to apply our …

(R1523) Abundant Natural Resources, Ethnic Diversity And Inclusive Growth In Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Approach, Juliet I. Adenuga, Kazeem B. Ajide, Anthonia T. Odeleye, Abayomi A. Ayoade

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

The sub-Saharan African region is blessed with abundant natural resources and diverse ethnic groups, yet the region is dominated by the largest number of poor people worldwide due to inequitable distribution of national income. Existing statistics forecast decay in the quality of lives over the years compared to the continent of Asia that shares similar history with the region. In this paper, a-five dimensional first-order nonlinear ordinary differential equations was formulated to give insight into various factors that shaped dynamics of inclusive growth in sub-Saharan Africa. The validity test was performed based on ample mathematical theorems and the model was …

Testing The Relationship Between Confidence And Effort: A Behavioral Finance Perspective On The Problem Of Financial Literacy, Louie Bernard A. Jacob, Miguel Angelo S. Rabago, Hans Erickson A. Tan, Lawrence B. Dacuycuy, Gerardo L. Largoza, Maria Fe Carmen L. Dabbay

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

This experimental study tested the relationship between confidence and effort with the ultimate objective of discovering how these factors may influence financial literacy. This was done through a modified version of a slider test and ball allocation task. The population consisted of 85 random participants who were primarily approached through social media. A simple OLS regression, along with robustness checks, namely the Tobit model and instrumental variable (IV) regression model using Tobit estimators, were utilized to confirm the causal relationship between confidence and effort.

Monetary Policy Transmission And Bank Interest Rates In Nigeria, Eleam Victor E., Ekwom Chinyelu G., Ariolu Chibueze C., Umebali Chukwubuzo J., Balogun Adewale T.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The paper examines the adjustment of retail and money market interest rates to changes in discount corridor of the monetary policy in Nigeria. A vector error correction model was adopted for this study, using monthly data from 2007:06 to 2019:12. We further accounted for structural breaks in the dataset to improve its policy reliability. The adjustment parameters were found to be significant but with slow speed of adjustment. This finding provides evidence of the weakness of the discount corridor in monetary policy transmission in Nigeria. Furthermore, the results showed no asymmetric adjustment of retail rates to long run equilibria. Lastly, …

Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate And Consumption In Nigeria: A Nonlinear Approach, Babangida Jamilu S., Sanusi Aliyu R., Yusuf Isah M.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study analyses the relationship between real exchange rate and domestic consumption in Nigeria using the Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) model from 1981Q1 to 2019Q4. Findings show that domestic consumption determines the regime shift in real exchange rate, suggesting a nonlinear linkage with clearly distinct regimes. The lagged exchange rate is shown to have a significant linear effect on the current exchange rate. On the other hand, current foreign consumption is positive but has no significant impact on the exchange rate in the linear part of the model. In the nonlinear part of the model, evidence of a significant negative …

A First Peek At Firms’ Cash Flow Dynamics In The Pandemic Year: A Lesson Learned?, Ana Oblak

Economic and Business Review

Using a comprehensive database of financial data and data on public support, we aim at documenting the actual (and not predicted) effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on firms’ liquidity. A drain of the non-financial corporations’ liquidity was unprecedented and highly asymmetric across sectors. A simple descriptive analysis enables us to evaluate (partially) the effectiveness of support measures and to provide insights on how well-targeted support measures were from the sectoral perspective. Acting in concert, the governments and the European Union (EU) institutions concerned seem to succeed in preventing massive illiquidity (for now). Crisis measures were targeted mostly at firms with …

Arbitrage Among Stablecoins, Peiyun Jin

All Dissertations

We examine the trades data and order book from 13 exchanges to study the arbitrage opportunities in stablecoins. Using snapshots of the order book data, we find that occasional prices far from the arbitrage-free prices (flash crashes) are real. Flash crashes invariably are associated with unusually large aggregate trading volume. We also examine arbitrage profitability and fee structure for stablecoin-USD and stablecoin- stablecoin. Our results show that after subtracting fees, there are still positive arbitrage profits. We also compare the efficiency of Decentralized Exchanges (DEXs) and Centralized Exchanges (CEXs). Our results are consistent with DEXs and CEXs being equally efficient.

Vat Treatment Of The Financial Services: Implications For The Real Economy, Ismail Baydur, Fatih Yilmaz

Research Collection School Of Economics

Financial institutions are exempt from the value-added tax (VAT) in most countries. We develop a general equilibrium model with endogenous firm entry and a banking sector to accommodate three key distortions related to exempt treatment: (i) self-supply bias in the banking sector, (ii) under-taxation of payment services, and (iii) input distortions in the business sector and tax cascading. We calibrate our model to the average of Germany, France, and the UK data. Our results show that repealing exempt treatment always increases tax revenues. However, welfare gains occur only at low VAT rates due to the hump-shaped VAT Laffer curve.

Harnessing Digitalization For Sustainable Economic Development: Insights For Asia, John Beirne, David Fernandez

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Digitalization has helped to transform economies by enhancing competitiveness and productivity across a wide range of sectors. The use of big data and the rise of online platforms have accelerated this process over the past decade. In addition, the adoption of digital solutions in the face of social distancing and lockdown measures introduced due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been integral to the economic recovery process. The shift to a digitalized economy has also reduced barriers to market entry for firms, lowered inequality, and led to a promotion of social and economic inclusion. Advances in digital technology …

Determinants Of The Student Loan Decision And Financial Well-Being: The Role Of Financial Education, Financial Literacy, And Student Loan Characteristics, Emily Shaffer Hales

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

The student loan crisis has been an important area of personal, political, and research discussion. Many individuals must make the decision to attend college with the help of student loans and millions are currently in repayment on their student loan. However, it can be difficult to understand what factors may play a role the decision to take out a student loan and how managing one’s student loan could affect their personal financial well-being. Thus, this study examined factors that could be related to how an individual may decide to take out a student loan, such as if they participated in …

Coo2 Bhanga Munda Data, Asli Ascioglu, Padma Kadiyala

Finance Department Faculty Journal Articles

No abstract provided.

Is Offense Worth More Than Defense In The National Basketball Association?, Justin Ehrlich, Joel Potter

Sport Management - All Scholarship

Motivated by the popular sports saying, “Offense sells tickets, defense wins championships,” we use Forbes revenue data to quantify whether offense really does sell more ‘tickets’ than defense in the National Basketball Association (NBA). Employing team offensive and defensive win shares as measures of offensive and defensive proficiency, we find offensively oriented teams generate the same amount of revenue as do defensively oriented teams, other things equal. Our results suggest that both profit-maximizing and win-maximizing teams should value offensively and defensively players equivalently (per unit). Thus, in an efficient free agent market, we would expect equilibrium player salaries for offensive …

Us Community Development Capital Initiative (Cdci), Adam Kulam

Journal of Financial Crises

The United States Department of the Treasury responded to the Global Financial Crisis with an economy-wide stimulus package called the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). Within the portion of TARP’s budget dedicated to bank investments, about $570.1 million was disbursed to community development financial institutions (CDFIs)—specifically, banks and credit unions (depositories)—in a program called the Community Development Capital Initiative (CDCI). Through the CDCI, Treasury provided capital to CDFI depositories, encouraged them to lend to small businesses, and promoted other community-oriented goals. The CDFI depositories issued either preferred shares or unsecured subordinated debentures to Treasury at low (2%) interest rates for …

Turkey Saving Deposit Insurance Fund Bank Recapitalization (2000–2001), Natalie Leonard

Journal of Financial Crises

Throughout the 1990s, Turkey’s macroeconomy featured high and fluctuating inflation and oscillating GDP growth rates. After Turkey’s April 1999 elections, Turkey adopted a new economic program in coordination with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with three goals: fiscal adjustment, structural reform, and an exchange rate commitment. By the end of the third quarter of 2000, concerns over the pace of structural reform mounted and short-term interest rates remained high. The new Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BRSA) revealed significant corruption within several small banks taken over by the Saving Deposit Insurance Fund (SDIF). In November 2000, Demirbank, a private bank …

Japan’S Act On Strengthening Financial Functions (Asff), Vaasavi Unnava, Junko Oguri

Journal of Financial Crises

After the Japanese Financial Crisis in 1990s, the non-performing loan problem was mitigated in the large Japanese banks but persisted in the regional banking system. By 2004, regional banks accounted for half of all non-performing loans. In 2004, the government passed the Act on Strengthening Financial Functions (ASFF), legislation for capital injections to address the non-performing loan problem. Aimed at regional banks, the ASFF secured ¥2 trillion in capital, with various eligibility restrictions and requirements, such as a rigorous debt restructuring plan. As the Japanese economy and the financial system encountered multiple external shocks, the government amended the Act several …

Growing During A Global Crisis, Ahmad E. Shahin

Theses and Dissertations

Employing the data from the World Bank Enterprise surveys, we examine how the first shock of the COVID-19 pandemic has affected firm dynamics across the world. Our first group of robust models have tested the effect of internal firms’ managerial decisions and other external factors on the sales’ growth, where we found that the most important decisions are related to preserving and increasing liquidity levels, in addition to utilizing the workforce in giving more input to maintain and grow the firms’ sales. Our second group of robust models have tested the firms’ financial decisions and other external factors on the …

Unscheduled Events, Stock Returns, And Market Efficiency: A Covid-19 Case Study Of Industry Leaders, Nathan R. Durham

Honors College Theses

This thesis explores the effects of unscheduled events on stock market returns due to increased uncertainty. A case study is done on the Coronavirus pandemic for the dates of March 9th, 2020, through March 23rd , 2020. The findings allow for short-run and long-run narratives where long-run returns, and short-run volatility explain how the role of psychology and different forecasting strategies are used to differentiate industry outcomes and technology sector returns.

Teaching Math With Confidence-Recommendations For Improving Numeracy From The Lens Of Confidence Building, Louie Bernard A. Jacob, Miguel Angelo S. Rabago, Hans Erickson A. Tan, Lawrence Dacuycuy, Gerardo L. Largoza, Maria Fe Carmen L. Dabbay

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

Despite the vast amount of literature surrounding the topic of financial literacy and related problems, there is still no universally accepted solution to this issue because the main factors causing financial literacy problems are still not fully understood both by researchers and current policy-makers. A possible new approach was discovered by Skagerlund et al. (2018), as their research suggested that financial literacy is driven by numeracy (the ability to process and perform basic numerical concepts and calculations) rather than direct knowledge about financial concepts. Given that numeracy is an effort based task, this policy brief provides a list of recommendations …

The Behavioral Si* Model, With Applications To The Swine Flu And Covid-19 Pandemics, Jussi Keppo, Marianna Kudlyak, Elena Quercioli, Lones Smith, Andrea Wilson

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

The 1927 SIR contagion model is the dynamical system for an infection that passes at a constant rate in random pairwise meetings. Our Behavioral SI* Model assumes that everyone has access to a constant elasticity of avoidance technology. We then derive the passing rate in fully solvable Nash equilibrium of the game where everyone optimizes. The resulting dynamics are log-linear, and incidence is log-linear in prevalence, with slope less than one.

The SI* models yields extreme predictions for major contagions, not realized. At breakout, the SI* models capture exponential growth. In our BSI* model, increasing avoidance behavior bends the curve, …

Algorithmic Transparency, Jian Sun

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

I study the optimal algorithmic disclosure in a lending market where lenders use a predictive algorithm to mitigate adverse selection. The predictive algorithm is unobservable to borrowers and uses a manipulable borrower feature as input. A regulator maximizes market efficiency by disclosing information about the statistical properties of variables embedded in the predictive algorithm to borrowers. Under the optimal disclosure policy, the posterior belief consists of two disjoint regions in which the borrower feature is more relevant and less relevant in predicting borrower quality, respectively. The optimal disclosure policy differentiates posterior lending market equilibria by the equilibrium data manipulation levels. …

Stock Return Prediction Using Financial News: A Unified Sequence Model Based On Hierarchical Attention And Long-Short Term Memory Networks, Haoling Chen, Peng Liu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Stock return prediction has been a hot topic in both research and industry given its potential for large financial gain. The return signal, apart from its inherent volatility and complexity, is often accompanied by a multitude of noises, such as other stocks’ performance, macroeconomic factors and financial news, etc. To better characterize these factors, we propose a new model that consists of two levels of sequence: an NLP-based module to capture the sequential nature of words and sentences in the financial news, and a time-series-based module to exploit the sequential nature of adjacent observations in the stock price. In this …

Volatility Timing Under Low-Volatility Strategy, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The authors show that the slope of the volatility decile portfolio’s return profile contains valuable information that can be used to time volatility under different market conditions in the United States. During good (bad) market conditions, the high- (low-) volatility portfolio produces the highest return. The authors proceed to devise a volatility timing strategy based on statistical tests on the slope of the volatility decile portfolio’s return profile. Volatility timing is achieved by being aggressive during strong growth periods and conservative during market downturns. Superior performance is obtained, with an additional return of 4.1% observed in the volatility timing strategy, …

Socially Responsible Corporate Customers, Rui Dai, Hao Liang, Lilian Ng

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Corporate customers are an important stakeholder in global supply chains. We employ several unique international databases to test whether socially responsible corporate customers can infuse similar socially responsible business behavior in suppliers. Our findings suggest a unilateral effect on corporate social responsibility (CSR) only from customers to suppliers, an evidence further supported by exogenous variation in customers’ close-call CSR proposals and by product scandals. Customers exert influence on suppliers’ CSR through positive assortative matching and their decision-making process. Enhanced collaborative CSR efforts help improve operational efficiency and firm valuation of both customers and suppliers but increase only the customers’ future …

Covid-19 And Women-Led Businesses Around The World, Yu Liu, Siqi Wei, Jian Xu

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

The impacts of crises are never gender-neutral, and the COVID-19 pandemic is no exception. Using a brand-new dataset covering 24 countries, we document that women-led businesses are subject to a higher likelihood of closure and a longer closure duration than men-led businesses during the pandemic. Women business leaders are also more pessimistic about the future than men business leaders. The disadvantages suffered by women-led businesses widen in high gender inequality economies and developing economies. Our results further indicate that finance and labor factors are likely to be the major contributors to these disadvantages. We suggest that COVID-19′s policy response should …

Ship Investment Strategy : A Case Study Of Vlcc Tankers, Epimachus Mulisa Burchard

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Maritime Liens And Their Enforcement From International Perspectives And Lessons For Vietnam, Thi Anh Tho Tran

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Improving Youth Financial Literacy: A Profile Of Middle School Camp Attendees, Jamie Lynn Byram, John Grable, Kenneth J. White, Michael Thomas, Kimberly Watkins

Journal of Extension

The purpose of this paper is to present a profile of middle-school-age youth who participated in a week-long experiential residential camp focused on helping campers learn about and interact with money, personal finance topics, and mainstream financial service providers. Based on pre- and post-test data, it was determined an experiential real-world camp experience can increase the financial confidence and goal-setting abilities of young people.

Projected Versus Actual On-Campus Student Enrollment During The Covid-19 Pandemic For Fall 2020 At Purdue University: A Quantitative Analysis Of Purdue Office Of Enrollment Management Data, Max Bebekoski

The Journal of Purdue Undergraduate Research

No abstract provided.

Mixed-Signal Stock Splits, Ahmed M. Elnahas, Pankaj K. Jain, Thomas H. Mcinish

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We investigate CEOs who combine insider selling with stock splits, which is suspicious, because dumping stocks is inconsistent with the positive stock-split signal. Our empirical results indicate that, compared with other splits, these mixed-signal splits perform poorly and are followed by much lower buy-and-hold abnormal returns and much higher likelihoods of announcing an earnings restatement and CEO turnover in the post-split period. Our results are robust to entropy balancing and controlling for CEO characteristics, incentives, and corporate governance and highlight previously ignored agency issues around stock splits. Attention to insider trades is essential to properly interpret a stock-split signal.