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Articles 61 - 90 of 221
Full-Text Articles in Finance
Lumpy Investment, Lumpy Inventories, Ruediger Bachmann, Lin Ma
Lumpy Investment, Lumpy Inventories, Ruediger Bachmann, Lin Ma
Research Collection School Of Economics
The link between the microenvironment (frictions and heterogeneity) and the macroeconomic dynamics of general equilibrium macromodels is influenced by exactly how general equilibrium closes the model. We make this observation concrete using the recent literature on how nonconvex capital adjustment costs influence aggregate investment dynamics. We introduce inventories into a two-sector lumpy investment model and find that nonconvex capital adjustment costs dampen and propagate investment impulse responses, more so than without inventories. With two means of transferring consumption into the future, fixed capital and inventories, the tight link between aggregate saving and fixed capital investment is broken.
Subsidies And Countervailing Duties, Gea M. Lee
Subsidies And Countervailing Duties, Gea M. Lee
Research Collection School Of Economics
This survey pays attention to a recent development of the literature that analyzes two important regulatory features found in the Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (the SCM agreement): the restrictive treatment of domestic subsidies and the general prohibition of export subsidies. The WTO's restriction on domestic subsidies is challenged by the existing terms-of-trade theory that offers an efficiency foundation for the market-access focus of the GATT rules. On the other hand, against the backdrop of the SCM agreement and preferential trade agreements (PTAs), a recent literature attempts to provide a rationale for the WTO to restrict the use of …
Constrained Inefficiency And Optimal Taxation With Uninsurable Risks, Piero Gottardi, Atsushi Kajii, Tomoyuki Nakajima
Constrained Inefficiency And Optimal Taxation With Uninsurable Risks, Piero Gottardi, Atsushi Kajii, Tomoyuki Nakajima
Research Collection School Of Economics
When individuals' labor and capital income are subject to uninsurable idiosyncratic risks, should capital and labor be taxed, and if so how? In a two-period general equilibrium model with production, we derive a decomposition formula of the welfare effects of these taxes into insurance and distribution effects. This allows us to determine how the sign of the optimal taxes on capital and labor depend on the nature of the shocks and the degree of heterogeneity among consumers' income, as well as on the way in which the tax revenue is used to provide lump-sum transfers to consumers. When shocks affect …
Trade Integration, Income Divergence, And Global Imbalances, Haiping Zhang
Trade Integration, Income Divergence, And Global Imbalances, Haiping Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We embed financial frictions and sector-specific minimum investment requirements (MIR) in a two-factor, two-sector, overlapping-generation model and showthat whether trade integration leads to convergence of the income levels among member states depends on their level of financial development. It helps reconcilethe mixed empirical evidence on trade integration and income dynamics in differentgroups of countries from the institutional perspective. In the recent decades, trade globalization has allowed developed countries to specialize towards the high-MIR, high-return production stages and tasks through international fragmentation of production and global sourcing. In our model, the “sectors” can be interpreted broadly as production stages and tasks. …
Optimal Taxation And Debt With Uninsurable Risks To Human Capital Accumulation, Piero Gottardi, Atsushi Kajii, Tomoyuki Nakajima
Optimal Taxation And Debt With Uninsurable Risks To Human Capital Accumulation, Piero Gottardi, Atsushi Kajii, Tomoyuki Nakajima
Research Collection School Of Economics
We consider an economy where individuals face uninsurable risks to their human capital accumulation and analyze the optimal level of linear taxes on capital and labor income together with the optimal path of government debt. We show that in the presence of such risks, it is beneficial to tax both labor and capital and to issue public debt. We also assess the quantitative importance of these findings, and show that the benefits of government debt and capital taxes both increase with the magnitude of idiosyncratic risks and the degree of relative risk aversion.
Remittances Without Borders, Tan Swee Liang, S. N. Venkataramanan, Anil Kishora
Remittances Without Borders, Tan Swee Liang, S. N. Venkataramanan, Anil Kishora
Research Collection School Of Economics
A Pan-Asian Mobile Remittance Platform might just be the next big disruption in global remittances. One out of every 28 people lives in a country that they were not born in. As migrants, they are estimated by The World Bank to send home US$636 billion in 2017, with three-quarters remitted to developing countries. These remittances form a significant percentage of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of many of these developing countries. Given their magnitude and contribution to national economies, even a small reduction in remittance cost adds billions to these local economies. Mobile-to-mobile cross border remittances have recently shown that …
Wealth Inequality And Financial Development: Revisiting The Symmetry Breaking Mechanism, Haiping Zhang
Wealth Inequality And Financial Development: Revisiting The Symmetry Breaking Mechanism, Haiping Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
No abstract provided.
Signaling In Online Credit Markets, Kei Kawai, Ken Onishi, Kosuke Uetake
Signaling In Online Credit Markets, Kei Kawai, Ken Onishi, Kosuke Uetake
Research Collection School Of Economics
We study how signaling affects equilibrium outcomes and welfare in markets with adverse selection. Using data from an online credit market, we estimate a model of borrowers and lenders where low reserve interest rates can signal low default risk. Comparing a market with and without signaling relative to the benchmark case with no asymmetric information, we find that adverse selection destroys as much as 16% of total surplus, up to 95% of which can be restored with signaling. We also find the credit supply curves to be backward-bending for some markets, consistent with the prediction of Stiglitz and Weiss (1981).
Is There A Future For The Euro?, Augustine H. H. Tan
Is There A Future For The Euro?, Augustine H. H. Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
A Greek exit could spell the euro zone's disintegration. The Greek referendum last Sunday resoundingly backed its embattled government over its tortuous negotiations with the Troika of the European Central Bank (ECB), the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Greece is now back at the negotiating table, which may ease the terms of loan repayment and lighten the reforms demanded or it may lead to a Grexit.
Greece Caught In Death Spiral, Augustine H. H. Tan
Greece Caught In Death Spiral, Augustine H. H. Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
The country is trapped between twin evils akin to the sea monsters Scylla and Charybdis that threatened Odysseus' voyage.
Greece Caught In Death Spiral, Augustine H. H. Tan
Greece Caught In Death Spiral, Augustine H. H. Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
The country is trapped between twin evils akin to the sea monsters Scylla and Charybdis that threatened Odysseus' voyage.
Role For Singapore In Mobile Phone Remittances, Tan Swee Liang, Singanallore Narayanan Venkataramanan, Anil Kishora
Role For Singapore In Mobile Phone Remittances, Tan Swee Liang, Singanallore Narayanan Venkataramanan, Anil Kishora
Research Collection School Of Economics
As sending money home this way takes off, the country can provide a Pan-Asian platform
China's Yuan: Asia's Future Anchor Currency?, Hwee Kwan Chow
China's Yuan: Asia's Future Anchor Currency?, Hwee Kwan Chow
Research Collection School Of Economics
The yuan is becoming more widely used in pricing and settling intra-regional trade and investment. Asian currencies' movements are likely to shift more in tandem with the yuan, leading to it becoming one of Asia's lead currencies. Singapore is now the world's second-most- important offshore yuan trading hub after Hong Kong.
Self-Exciting Jumps, Learning, And Asset Pricing Implications, Andras Fulop, Junye Li, Jun Yu
Self-Exciting Jumps, Learning, And Asset Pricing Implications, Andras Fulop, Junye Li, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
The paper proposes a self-exciting asset pricing model that takes into account co-jumps between prices and volatility and self-exciting jump clustering. We employ a Bayesian learning approach to implement real-time sequential analysis. We find evidence of self-exciting jump clustering since the 1987 market crash, and its importance becomes more obvious at the onset of the 2008 global financial crisis. We also find that learning affects the tail behaviors of the return distributions and has important implications for risk management, volatility forecasting, and option pricing.
Wage Subsidies As A Tool To Fight Recessions, Hian Teck Hoon
Wage Subsidies As A Tool To Fight Recessions, Hian Teck Hoon
Research Collection School Of Economics
Since 1981, MAS has used the exchange rate as the primary tool of macroeconomic stabilisation. An exchange rate-based policy rule not only describes very well Singapore’s actual conduct of monetary policy but it has also delivered reduced volatility in inflation and output. Yet, as the quotation above suggests, during the onslaught of the contagion effects arising from the 1997–98 Asian Financial Crisis when Singapore’s export demand declined precipitously, threatening a rise in the unemployment rate, exchange rate adjustment did not act alone to counteract the decline in aggregate demand (AD). Instead, the committee set up by then - Prime Minister …
Intraday Periodicity Adjustments Of Transaction Duration And Their Effects On High-Frequency Volatility Estimation, Yiu Kuen Tse, Yingjie Dong
Intraday Periodicity Adjustments Of Transaction Duration And Their Effects On High-Frequency Volatility Estimation, Yiu Kuen Tse, Yingjie Dong
Research Collection School Of Economics
We study two methods of adjusting for intraday periodicity of high-frequency financial data: the well-known Duration Adjustment (DA) method and the recently proposed Time Transformation (TT) method (Wu (2012)). We examine the effects of these adjustments on the estimation of intraday volatility using the Autoregressive Conditional Duration-Integrated Conditional Variance (ACD-ICV) method of Tse and Yang (2012). We find that daily volatility estimates are not sensitive to intraday periodicity adjustment. However, intraday volatility is found to have a weaker U-shaped volatility smile and a biased trough if intraday periodicity adjustment is not applied. In addition, adjustment taking account of trades with …
Exchange Rates And Export Structure, Wen-Tai Hsu, Yi Lu, Yingke Zhou
Exchange Rates And Export Structure, Wen-Tai Hsu, Yi Lu, Yingke Zhou
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper studies whether changes in the exchange rate affect a country’s export structure, using an arguably exogenous sudden appreciation of renminbi on July 21, 2005 as the main source of identification. Employing combined regression discontinuity and difference-in-differences approach, we show that China’s export structure became more similar to that of the developed countries after the currency appreciation. We also find that the majority of the appreciation effect comes from the inter-firm resource reallocation rather than the inter-region or intra-firm resource reallocation.
Borrower Targeting Under Microfinance: Competition With Motivated Microfinance Institutions And Strategic Complementarity, Brishti Guha, Prabal Roy Chowdhury
Borrower Targeting Under Microfinance: Competition With Motivated Microfinance Institutions And Strategic Complementarity, Brishti Guha, Prabal Roy Chowdhury
Research Collection School Of Economics
We examine how increased competition among motivated microfinance institutions (MFIs) impacts the poorest borrowers’ access to microfinance. We find that competition depends on inequality, technology, and the possibility of double-dipping (borrowing from several sources). Without competition, even a motivated MFI may lend to the not-so-poor in preference to poor borrowers. If double-dipping is feasible, competition may encourage lending to the poor. The presence of double-dipping is critical for MFI competition to have a positive effect. When double-dipping is feasible, MFI coordination may worsen borrower targeting whenever inequality is intermediate. We discuss policy implications dealing with double-dipping, MFI coordination, and competition.
Bayesian Testing Volatility Persistence In Stochastic Volatility Models With Jumps, Xiaobin Liu, Yong Li
Bayesian Testing Volatility Persistence In Stochastic Volatility Models With Jumps, Xiaobin Liu, Yong Li
Research Collection School Of Economics
Whether or not there is a unit root persistence in volatility of financial assets has been a long-standing topic of interest to financial econometricians and empirical economists. The purpose of this article is to provide a Bayesian approach for testing the volatility persistence in the context of stochastic volatility with Merton jump and correlated Merton jump. The Shanghai Composite Index daily return data is used for empirical illustration. The result of Bayesian hypothesis testing strongly indicates that the volatility process doesn’t have unit root volatility persistence in this stock market.
Minimum Investment Requirements, Financial Market Globalization, And Symmetry Breaking, Haiping Zhang
Minimum Investment Requirements, Financial Market Globalization, And Symmetry Breaking, Haiping Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We incorporate wealth heterogeneity and the minimum investment requirements in the model of Matsuyama (2004, Econometrica) and provide a complete characterization of symmetry breaking. In particular, we identify the extensive margin of investment as a key channel through which the interest rate may respond positively to capital accumulation, or equivalently, the interest rate can be higher in the rich than in the poor countries. Then, financial market globalization may lead to “uphill” capital flows from the poor to the rich countries, which widens the initial cross-country income gap and leads to income divergence among inherently identical countries, a phenomenon that …
International Transmission Of Interest Rates And The Open Economy Trilemma In Asia, Hwee Kwan Chow
International Transmission Of Interest Rates And The Open Economy Trilemma In Asia, Hwee Kwan Chow
Research Collection School Of Economics
There has recently been much discussion on the relevance of the open economy trilemma in the context of deepening financial integration of countries across the world (see for instance, Rey (2013) and Devereux and Yetman (2014)). The open economy trilemma is an important issue for the countries in Asia not least because their financial systems are small and exchange rate stability is crucial to their economic growth. This paper investigates whether the economies in Asia are still bound by the "impossible trinity" by examining the interest rate transmission from the US to the region before and after the onset of …
Bayesian Analysis Of Bubbles In Asset Prices, Andras Fulop, Jun Yu
Bayesian Analysis Of Bubbles In Asset Prices, Andras Fulop, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
We develop a new asset price model where the dynamic structure of the asset price, after the fundamental value is removed, is subject to two different regimes. One regime reflects the normal period where the asset price divided by the dividend is assumed to follow a mean-reverting process around a stochastic long run mean. This latter is allowed to account for possible smooth structural change. The second regime reflects the bubble period with explosive behavior. Stochastic switches between two regimes and non-constant probabilities of exit from the bubble regime are both allowed. A Bayesian learning approach is employed to jointly …
Trade And Financial Integration, Extensive Margin, And Income Divergence, Haiping Zhang
Trade And Financial Integration, Extensive Margin, And Income Divergence, Haiping Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We revisit the classical question on economic integration and income convergence in a two-sector OLG model with financial frictions and sectoral heterogeneity in minimum investment requirements (MIR, hereafter). The extensive margin of investment is a critical channel through which aggregate income may become a determinant of comparative advantage. Free trade allows the rich (poor) country to specialize partially or completely in the high-MIR (low-MIR) sector which has a high (low) return endogenously. The specialization effect interacts with the neoclassical effect, which may lead to income divergence among inherently identical countries. Similarly, financial integration may also lead to income divergence through …
Why Cpf-Style Systems Generally Work Better, Hian Teck Hoon
Why Cpf-Style Systems Generally Work Better, Hian Teck Hoon
Research Collection School Of Economics
The Central Provident Fund (CPF) has been in existence since 1955, and plays an important role in the lives of millions of Singaporeans. But this does not mean there is nothing to be learnt from asking some fundamental questions about its usefulness.
Sequential Investment, Hold-Up, And Ownership Structure, Juyuan Zhang, Yi Zhang
Sequential Investment, Hold-Up, And Ownership Structure, Juyuan Zhang, Yi Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We construct a sequential investment model to investigate individual firms’ strategic choices of organizational forms when outsourcing their intermediate products. Our results indicate that as a result of the encouragement effect of sequential complementary investments, sequential investment alleviates the underinvestment caused by the hold-up problem. Thereafter, we analyze the impact of sequential investment on the choice of ownership structure. We show that contrary to the result of the standard property rights theory, strictly complementary assets could be owned separately.
Is The Renminbi East Asia’S Dominant Reference Currency? A Reconsideration, Hwee Kwan Chow
Is The Renminbi East Asia’S Dominant Reference Currency? A Reconsideration, Hwee Kwan Chow
Research Collection School Of Economics
Recent empirical studies show that the Chinese currency renminbi is either becoming or has become a dominant reference currency in Asia. However, the high correlation between the US dollar and renminbi movements hampers the identification of their individual effects on the Asian currencies. In particular, the application of Frankel-Wei regressions to determine the weights of the US dollar and the (unorthogonalized) renminbi in the implicit currency baskets could suffer from endogeneity problems that produce an upward bias in renminbi’s estimated weight. This paper reviews the evidence by applying country-specific VAR models to daily exchange rate data from nine Asian economies …
Improving Money's Worth Ratio Calculations: The Case Of Singapore's Pension Annuities, Joelle H. Y. Fong, Jean Lemaire, Yiu Kuen Tse
Improving Money's Worth Ratio Calculations: The Case Of Singapore's Pension Annuities, Joelle H. Y. Fong, Jean Lemaire, Yiu Kuen Tse
Research Collection School Of Economics
This article contributes to a better understanding of the risks involved in a life annuity investment. We examine the distribution of weighted annuity benefits and assess various measures of dispersion such as the coefficient of variance. In particular, we quantify the standard deviation about the expected value, thereby extending the usefulness of the popular money’s worth framework for annuity valuation. The effort toward a more detailed and more accurate risk picture of investing in annuities enables retirees to differentiate among products that may appear seemingly uniform in terms of money’s worth, but vary widely in terms of their risk attributes.
Monetary Regime Choice In Singapore: Would A Taylor Rule Outperform Exchange-Rate Management?, Hwee Kwan Chow, G. C. Lim, Paul D. Mcnelis
Monetary Regime Choice In Singapore: Would A Taylor Rule Outperform Exchange-Rate Management?, Hwee Kwan Chow, G. C. Lim, Paul D. Mcnelis
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper adopts a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium-vector autorgressive (DSGE-VAR) approach to examine the managed exchange-rate system at work in Singapore. We examine if the country has any reason to fear floating the exchange rate and adopting a Taylor rule. Our results show that, in terms of overall inflation volatility, the exchange rate rule has a comparative advantage over the Taylor rule when export price shocks are the major sources of real volatility, while a Taylor rule dominates when domestic productivity shocks drive real volatility. The exchange-rate rule also dominates the Taylor rule for reducing inflation persistence.
Financial Development, International Capital Flows, And Aggregate Output, Jurgen Von Hagen, Haiping Zhang
Financial Development, International Capital Flows, And Aggregate Output, Jurgen Von Hagen, Haiping Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We develop a tractable two-country overlapping-generations model and show that cross-country differences in financial development can explain three recent empirical patterns of international capital flows: Financial capital flows from relatively poor to relatively rich countries, while foreign direct investment flows in the opposite direction; net capital flows go from poor to rich countries; despite its negative net international investment positions, the United States receives a positive net investment income. International capital mobility affects output in each country directly through the size of domestic investment and indirectly through the aggregate saving rate. Under certain conditions, the indirect effect may dominate the …
Minimum Investment Requirement, Financial Integration And Economic (In)Stability: A Refinement To Matsuyama (2004), Haiping Zhang
Minimum Investment Requirement, Financial Integration And Economic (In)Stability: A Refinement To Matsuyama (2004), Haiping Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This note proposes a simple, more precise, necessary condition for symmetry breaking in Matsuyama (Financial Market Globalization, Symmetry-Breaking, and Endogenous Inequality of Nations, Econometrica, 2004 ), i.e., the positive interest rate response to income changes, which essentially arises from the assumptions of financial frictions and minimum investment size requirement of individual projects. This condition also holds under the more general settings. Thus, this note o ers an empirically testable hypothesis, i.e., Matsuyama's symmetry breaking is more likely, if the interest rate response to income changes is positive and sufficiently large.