Finance Commons^™

Institutions: Key Variable For Economic Development In Latin America, Andre Vianna, André Varella Mollick

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This article examines economic development from 1996 to 2015 for 192 countries and specifically Latin America. Evidence shows that each 0.1-point increase in institutions impacts a 3.9% improvement in Latin American per capita output versus a 2.6% effect on world development. This new evidence from Latin America shows a missing opportunity to develop at higher annual pace than the 2.14% average, mainly due to the deterioration in rule of law. We conjecture the efficiency of monetary/fiscal policies will improve if policymakers emphasize projects that foster improvements to institutional quality, such as transparency, public spending quality and fiscal responsibility.

The Plough, Gender Roles, And Corruption, Gautam Hazarika

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Cross-country empirical studies of corruption using ordinary least squares commonly find that nations in which women play a greater role in economic and public life suffer less corruption. This has been a controversial finding since measures of women’s participation in the economy and politics are likely endogenous. This study uses an aspect of national ancestral geography as a novel instrumental variable in the estimation of the true causal effects of gender upon corruption. It thereby finds that ordinary least squares estimates of the effects of gender upon corruption are biased. This conclusion is upheld in time-series fixed-effects estimation.

Estimating Efficiency In A Spatial Autoregressive Stochastic Frontier Model, Levent Kutlu

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

The spatial autoregressive stochastic frontier model of Glass et al.(2016) is based on distributional assumptions on two-sided and one-sided error terms. After estimating the model parameters, the efficiency estimates need to be corrected due to the presence of spatial autoregressive term in their model. Glass et al.(2016) estimate the corrected efficiencies by employing ideas from a distribution-free method on the efficiency estimation, which may be sensitive to outliers. We propose an alternative way to correct efficiency estimates that is in line with the distribution-based methods.

A Distribution-Free Stochastic Frontier Model With Endogenous Regressors, Levent Kutlu

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We provide a guideline for estimating a distribution-free panel data stochastic frontier model in the presence of endogenous variables. In particular, we consider variations of the within estimator of Cornwell et al. (1990) to allow endogenous regressors.

Peer Influence On Payout Policies, Binay K. Adhikari, Anup Agrawal

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Using a large sample of US public companies, we find robust evidence that firms’ payout policies, i.e., dividends and share repurchases, are significantly influenced by the policies of their industry peers. To overcome endogeneity problems, we employ instrumental variable techniques based on peers’ stock price shocks. Peer influence on payouts is more pronounced among firms that face greater product market competition and operate in better information environments. With regards to dividends, firms, especially smaller and younger firms, are more sensitive to industry peers that are similar to them in size and age. However, mimicking repurchases is concentrated among large and …

Bank Net Interest Margins, The Yield Curve, And The 2007–2009 Financial Crisis, Peter V. Egly, David W. Johnk, Andre V. Mollick

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Using quarterly call report data from 2000 to 2016, we reexamine the relationship between net interest margins (NIM) and the yield curve for more than 5,500 U.S. commercial banks. In the full sample, yield curve and RGDP growth have positive effects on NIM, while inflation and deposit‐to‐loan ratios (D/L) have negative effects. Splitting the sample around the 2007–2009 crisis, we show the impact of yield curve and RGDP growth on NIM increasing during the “recovery” (2009Q3 to 2016Q4), and inflation and D/L changing signs. Positive effects of yield curve on profits vary with bank size and change over time.

Identifying Price Bubble Periods In The Energy Sector, Shahil Sharma, Diego Escobari

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

In this paper we test for the existence of single and multiple episodes of explosive behavior in three energy sector indices (crude oil, heating oil, and natural gas) and five energy sector spot prices (West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Brent, heating oil, natural gas, and jet fuel). The results from the Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) and the Generalized SADF tests provide strong statistical evidence of explosive behavior in all of our energy series. A simple theoretical framework of commodity pricing allows us to understand the assumptions to interpret explosive behavior as bubbles. By constructing implied convenience yields using futures prices we …

Deconstructing The Corporate Psychopath: An Examination Of Deceptive Behavior, Corey A. Shank

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This paper examines whether business students deceive others more often than non-business students. A cheap talk experiment and an ethics questionnaire are employed to examine the subject’s behavior. Fundamental differences, such as psychopathic personality, are used to examine their role in deceptive and unethical behavior. The results show that business students deceive others for personal gain more often than non-business students when there is the most to gain; however, business students find deception committed by others as unethical. Business students exhibit more psychopathic tendencies compared to non-business students, including being more likely to fit the prototypical psychopath profile. This fundamental …

School District Consolidation Policies: Endogenous Cost Inefficiency And Saving Reversals, Mustafa U. Karakaplan, Levent Kutlu

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Some education policy studies suggest that consolidation of public school districts saves resources. However, endogeneity in cost models would result in incorrect estimates of the effects of consolidation. We use a new stochastic frontier methodology to examine district expenditures while handling endogeneity. Using the data from California, we find that the effects of student achievement and education market concentration on expenditure per pupil are substantially larger when endogeneity is handled. Our findings are robust to concerns such as instrumental variable adequacy and spatial interactions. Our consolidation simulations indicate that failure to address endogeneity can result in unrealistic expectations of savings.

Oil Price Shocks And American Depositary Receipt Stock Returns, Shahil Sharma

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

In this paper we examine the impact of oil price shocks on twelve countries American Depositary Receipt (ADR) returns using monthly data from 1999.01 to 2014.12. The results show that oil price shocks have a positive and statistically significant impact on ADR return in all twelve countries. These results are robust to the inclusion of other explanatory variables such as oil price volatility and the spillover of the United States stock market. Further analysis shows that this effect is stronger in the post financial crisis time period compared to the pre-financial crisis time period.

The Long-Run Performance Of U.S. Firms Pursuing Ipos In Foreign Markets, Robert N. Killins, Peter V. Egly

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the long-run performance of a unique set of US domiciled firms that have bypassed the US capital markets in pursuit of their initial public offering (IPO) overseas. Additionally, this paper then tests the popular underwriter prestige impact and the window of opportunity hypothesis on this unique subset of IPOs.

Design/methodology/approach

Using a sample of foreign and purely domestic IPOs made by US firms from 2000 to 2011, this study investigates the long-term performance, one-, two- and three-year by using two measures (buy-and-hold return and cumulative abnormal returns) to test the long-run …

Identifying Bubbles In Latin American Equity Markets: Phillips-Perron-Based Tests And Linkages, Diego Escobari, Sergio Garcia, Cristhian Mellado

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

The identification of periods of price exuberance in equity markets is of great interest to policy makers and financial investors. In this paper, we identify financial bubble periods within the major equity markets in Latin America. We use the recently developed recursive Augmented Dickey-Fuller methods and propose similar recursive procedures based on Phillips-Perron. We find that conditional on bubbles in the S&P 500, there are strong links between bubble episodes across equity markets in Latin America. In addition, the financial bubble periods in Latin America begin earlier and last longer than bubble periods in the United States during the 2008 …

Female Executives And Corporate Cash Holdings, Binay K. Adhikari

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

I find that firms led by female top executives hold more cash, partly due to precautionary motives. To overcome endogeneity concerns, I employ several econometric techniques, including an instrumental variable analysis based on a historical event that resulted in a plausibly exogenous variation in the female workforce participation. Overall, my results are consistent with the view that greater risk-aversion leads female executives to hold more cash.

The Impact Of Oil Shocks On The Housing Market: Evidence From Canada And U.S., Robert N. Killins, Peter V. Egly, Diego Escobari

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

The recent volatility in oil energy markets invites us to re-assess the impact of oil prices changes on the macroeconomic environment. The Great Recession of 2007–2009 led to closer monitoring of global housing markets by regulators and market participants. Employing a structural vector autoregressive model, we find that the reaction of housing markets to oil price shocks varies significantly depending on whether the change in oil prices is prompted by demand or supply shocks in the oil market and on country oil trading status (i.e. net importer or net exporter). Our results are robust to the inclusion of different macroeconomic …

Airport, Airline And Departure Time Choice And Substitution Patterns: An Empirical Analysis, Diego Escobari

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This paper uses the random-coefficients logit methodology that controls for potential endogeneity of prices and allows for general substitution patterns to estimate various demand systems. The estimation takes advantage of an original ticket-level revealed preference data set on travels from the New York City area to Toronto that contains prices and characteristics of not only flight choices but also of all non-booked alternative flights. Consistent with having higher valuations, our results show that travelers buying closer to departure have a higher utility of flying. Moreover, consumers’ heterogeneity decreases as the flight date nears. At the carrier level, we identify which …

Endogeneity In Panel Stochastic Frontier Models: An Application To The Japanese Cotton Spinning Industry, Mustafa U. Karakaplan, Levent Kutlu

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We present a panel stochastic frontier model that handles the endogeneity problem. This model can treat the endogeneity of both frontier and inefficiency variables. We apply our method to examine the technical efficiency of Japanese cotton spinning industry. Our results indicate that market concentration is endogenous, and when its endogeneity is properly handled, it has a larger negative impact on the technical efficiency of cotton spinning plants. We find that the exogenous model substantially overestimates efficiency in concentrated markets.

Effects Of Bush Tax Cut And Obama Tax Increase On Corporate Payout Policy And Stock Returns, Andre Vianna

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Abstract This article analyzes the effects of the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (Obama Tax Increase) and the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (Bush Tax Cut) on corporate payout decision and stock returns. Logit and fixed-effect panel data analyses are conducted on all firms listed in NYSE, Amex and NASDAQ in the announcement windows of two, three and four quarters before and after the tax reforms. The results show that the implementation of these tax reforms more persistently affects dividend payments than stock repurchases. It also has a boosting effect on stock returns in the …

Student Loans And Their Effect On Parental Views Of Education Financing, Jose Angel Nunez

Honors Theses

Using the 2012 wave National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, this study examines the effect that parents' student debt have on their decision to use tax advantage education vehicles to save for their children's college. We also examine parental decisions on obtaining student loans on behalf of their children. The results show that parents who report having student loans are 61% less likely than those that report no student loan debt to use tax-advantaged education saving vehicles. However, we find no difference in the effect of having student loans on the decision to obtain debt to fund their children's college …

Stock Returns And Interest Rates Around The World: A Panel Data Approach, Tibebe A. Assefa, Omar A. Esqueda, Andre V. Mollick

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We examine quarterly stock returns of 21 developed and 19 developing economies from 1999 to 2013. Over this period, mean quarterly stock returns of 1.188% in developed economies contrast to 4.220% in developing economies. Economic growth has been substantially lower and interest rates have fallen (risen) in developed (developing) economies. Using dynamic panels, we find statistically significant negative effects of interest rates on stock returns in the developed countries, consistent with the expected cash flow hypothesis. In the developing markets, however, the world market portfolio is the sole determinant of stock returns. The contrasting effect of interest rates change on …

The Impact Of Exports To China On Latin American Growth, Andre C. Vianna

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This article analyzes the relationship between GDP growth in seven major Latin American countries and China’s demand for their exports. GLS panel estimation using annual data for the period 1994-2013 shows that the relationship was both statistically and economically significant. Control variables found to be significant in positively affecting GDP growth include the investment-to-output ratio, the exchange rate, and the terms of trade, and, in negatively affecting it, population growth and the unemployment rate. Consistent with recent literature, foreign direct investment was found not to be significant. A sharp drop in exports to China for many of the countries in …

Drivers Behind The Monitoring Effectiveness Of Global Institutional Investors: Evidence From Earnings Management, Incheol Kim, Steve Miller, Hong Wan, Bin Wang

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This paper studies the drivers behind the monitoring effectiveness of institutional investors in curbing earnings management in an international setting. We identify three distinct drivers and propose two competing hypotheses: the hometown advantage hypothesis predicts that because of proximity to monitoring information, domestic institutions have a comparative advantage over foreign institutions in deterring earnings management, whereas the global investor hypothesis predicts that foreign institutions have a comparative advantage because of their proclivity toward activism and ability to deploy superior monitoring technologies. Consistent with the hometown advantage hypothesis, in aggregate, domestic, but not foreign, institutional ownership is associated with less earnings …

Are Us-Dollar-Hedged-Etf Investors Aggressive On Exchange Rates? A Panel Var Approach, Corey A. Shank, Andre C. Vianna

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Exchange traded funds (ETFs) are a multi-trillion dollar market that epitomizes financialization due to its recent growth. This study examines the behavior of U.S. listed currency hedged ETF investors towards changes in the underlying benchmark and foreign exchange rate from July 2011 to November 2015 using a panel VAR approach. We find that investors are able to anticipate changes in future exchange rates and invest in currency hedged ETFs prior to changes. Granger-causality tests confirm that these investors proactively trade before large real exchange rate movements. These results suggest that the use of financial instruments such as ETFs to hedge …

Does Globalization Affect Top Income Inequality?, Rene Cabral, Rocio Garcia-Diaz, Andre V. Mollick

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We reexamine in this paper the role of globalization on top income shares (five classes from top 0.1% to top 10% of the income distribution) for a sample of 15 economies over the period 1970–2004. We investigate financial globalization measures that complement trade openness. Our system GMM (SGMM) estimations allow for a robust treatment of the endogeneity between income concentration and GDP per capita (as well as with taxation or government size). We find two interesting new results. First, the financial integration measure based on portfolio equity and FDI stocks (GEQ) turns out to have a large impact on top …

Institutional Ownership Stability And Real Earnings Management, Hamid Sakaki, Dave Jackson, Surendranath Jory

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We examine the relationship between institutional ownership stability and real earnings management. Our findings indicate that firms held by more stable institutional owners experience lower real activities manipulation by limiting overproduction. We further examine how the stability in the shareholdings of pressure-sensitive and insensitive institutional investors affect target firms’ use of real earnings management, respectively. Unlike pressure-sensitive institutional investors, the stability in the share ownership of pressure-insensitive institutional investors (i.e., investment advisors, pension funds and endowments) mitigates target firms’ use of real earnings management. Overall, our results are consistent with the view that institutional investors presence acts as a monitor …

Long-Run Equilibrium Shift And Short-Run Dynamics Of U.S. Home Price Tiers During The Housing Bubble, Damian S. Damianov, Diego Escobari

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We use vector error correction models to examine the interdependence between the high and the low price tiers during the latest housing market boom and bust. For 118 of the 364 US statistical areas analyzed, the tiered price indexes are bound by a long-run relationship. In general, low tier homes appreciated more than high tier homes in the past two decades. In contrast to previous periods of high volatility, however, low tier homes appreciated more during the boom and lost more value during the bust of the market. We find a shift in the long-run equilibrium during the bubble —the …

Reducing Asymmetric Information In Venture Capital Backed Ipos, Diego Escobari, Alejandro Serrano

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to model asymmetric information and study the profitability of venture capital (VC) backed initial public offerings (IPOs). The mixtures approach endogenously separates IPOs into differentiated groups based on their returns’ determinants. The authors also analyze the factors that affect the probability that IPOs belong to a specific group.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors propose a new method to model asymmetric information between investors and firms in VC backed IPOs. The approach allows the authors to identify differentiated companies under incomplete information. The authors use a sample of 2,404 US firms from 1980 through 2012 to …

Lep Language Disability, Immigration Reform, And English-Language Acquisition, Alberto Dávila, Marie T. Mora

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Policy might partly shape the English-language acquisition of Hispanics migrating to the U.S. mainland, particularly policies related to limited-English-language disability benefits and immigration reform. Using data from the American Community Survey, we find that island-born Puerto Ricans on the U.S. mainland, as U.S. citizens, may have lower incentives to learn English than Hispanic immigrants because of their higher participation in LEP disability programs. However, among Mexican immigrants, recent immigration reform aimed at interior enforcement might have increased incentives for Mexican immigrants to learn English to reduce their probability of detection, if speaking English proxies for undocumented status.

Date Stamping Bubbles In Real Estate Investment Trusts, Diego Escobari, Mohammad Jafarinejad

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We test for the existence of single and multiple bubble periods in four Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) indices using the Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) and the Generalized SADF. These methods allow us to estimate the beginning and the end of bubble periods. Our results provide statistically significant evidence of speculative bubbles in the REIT index and its three components: Equity, Mortgage and Hybrid REITs. These results may be valuable for real estate financial managers and for investors in REITs.

Us Airport Ownership, Efficiency, And Heterogeneity, Levent Kutlu, Patrick Mccarthy

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

All US commercial airports are in the public sector yet not all have the same ownership type. For medium and large hub US airports we use stochastic frontier analysis to analyze the efficiency differences for alternative airport ownership types. We find that while form of ownership may matter for cost efficiency, in general its effect is relatively small. Yet type of public sector ownership does have cost efficiency implications in certain environments. Further, when heterogeneity is not controlled, the results change substantially so that type of ownership matters much more which demonstrates the importance of controlling for cross section heterogeneity.

Violence In Mexico And Its Effects On Labor Productivity, Rene Cabral, André Varella Mollick, Eduardo Saucedo

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This paper examines the evolution of Mexico’s labor productivity (GDP per worker) across its 32 sub-national entities from 2003 to 2013, during a period of rising drug-related crimes. Using quarterly data and economic controls, fixed effects models suggest the effects of crime are small and differ depending on whether such crimes are prosecuted by state/local or federal authorities. However, results from System Generalized Methods of Moments regressions generate stronger responses for (endogenous) wages and labor productivity. First, crime has negative effects on Mexican labor productivity across states during the “war on drugs” period. Second, increases in expenditures on public security …