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Full-Text Articles in Finance

Minimum Investment Requirement, Financial Integration And Economic (In)Stability: A Refinement To Matsuyama (2004), Haiping Zhang Dec 2013

Minimum Investment Requirement, Financial Integration And Economic (In)Stability: A Refinement To Matsuyama (2004), Haiping Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This note proposes a simple, more precise, necessary condition for symmetry breaking in Matsuyama (Financial Market Globalization, Symmetry-Breaking, and Endogenous Inequality of Nations, Econometrica, 2004 ), i.e., the positive interest rate response to income changes, which essentially arises from the assumptions of financial frictions and minimum investment size requirement of individual projects. This condition also holds under the more general settings. Thus, this note o ers an empirically testable hypothesis, i.e., Matsuyama's symmetry breaking is more likely, if the interest rate response to income changes is positive and sufficiently large.

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An Epidemiological Approach To Opinion And Price-Volume Dynamics, Dong Hong, Harrison G. Hong, Andrei Ungureanu Nov 2013

An Epidemiological Approach To Opinion And Price-Volume Dynamics, Dong Hong, Harrison G. Hong, Andrei Ungureanu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We develop a simple and tractable model of opinions and price-volume dynamics based on a word-of-mouth communication process widely used in epidemiology. Risk-averse investors have different opinions depending on whether they heard the news from a friend. Opinions initially diverge and then converge over time as news spreads, which leads to price adjustment and trading volume. News released to many leads to an expected difusion rate (the change in the fraction of investors with the news) that declines with time. But news initially released to few leads to an expected diffusion rate that initially increases in time and only then …

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Growing The Asset Management Franchise: Evidence From Hedge Fund Firms, William Fung, David Hsieh, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo Aug 2013

Growing The Asset Management Franchise: Evidence From Hedge Fund Firms, William Fung, David Hsieh, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate the growth strategies of hedge fund firms. We find that firms with successful first funds are able to launch follow-on funds that charge higher performance fees, set more onerous redemption terms, and attract greater inflows. While first funds outperform follow-on funds, the superior performance of the former attenuates following the launch of the second fund. Multiple-product firms underperform single-product firms, but harvest greater fee revenues. Consequently, the multiple-product firm has become the dominant business model in the hedge fund industry.

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Is The Renminbi East Asia’S Dominant Reference Currency? A Reconsideration, Hwee Kwan Chow Jul 2013

Is The Renminbi East Asia’S Dominant Reference Currency? A Reconsideration, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

Recent empirical studies show that the Chinese currency renminbi is either becoming or has become a dominant reference currency in East Asia. This paper reviews the evidence with daily exchange rate data from seven East Asian economies namely, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Taiwan. We consider the likely problems and pitfalls associated with the application of Frankel-Wei regressions to determine the weights of the US dollar and the renminbi in the implicit currency baskets. We show empirically the estimation of currency weights using non-orthogonalised renminbi movements could suffer from imprecision and/or inconsistency. To circumvent the simultaneity bias …

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Forecasting Government Bond Risk Premia Using Technical Indicators, Jeremy Goh, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou Jul 2013

Forecasting Government Bond Risk Premia Using Technical Indicators, Jeremy Goh, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

While economic variables have been used extensively to forecast bond risk premia, little attention has been paid to technical indicators which are widely used by practitioners. In this paper, we study the predictive ability of a variety of technical indicators vis-a-vis the economic variables. We find that technical indicators have significant in both in- and out-of-sample forecasting power. Moreover, we find that using information from both technical indicators and economic variables increases the forecasting performance substantially. We also find that the economic value of bond risk premia forecasts from our methodology is comparable to that of equity risk premium forecasts.

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Parallels Between The U.S. And Asian Property Markets, Singapore Management University May 2013

Parallels Between The U.S. And Asian Property Markets, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

U.S. home prices are on an upswing. What does this mean for the Asian property market?

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Host Country Financial Development And Mnc Activity, L. Kamran Bilir, Davin Chor, Manova Kalina Feb 2013

Host Country Financial Development And Mnc Activity, L. Kamran Bilir, Davin Chor, Manova Kalina

Research Collection School Of Economics

Multinational corporations (MNCs) manage complex operations, often blending features of three modes of FDI that are well understood in isolation but not in tandem, namely: horizontal, vertical and export-platform FDI. We develop a three-country model with heterogeneous firms, in order to analyze how financing constraints in the FDI host country affect the relative strength of these three motives for FDI. In our model, financial development in the host country fosters entry by domestic firms, making the local market more competitive for MNC products. This leads MNCs to orient their affiliate sales away from the local market toward other markets instead. …

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Three Essays On Mutual Fund Ratings, Wee Seng Ng Jan 2013

Three Essays On Mutual Fund Ratings, Wee Seng Ng

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

The incessant growth of the mutual fund industry has made the task of selecting mutual funds an increasingly challenging one. Unsophisticated investors turn to low-cost and readily available ratings to guide their investment decisions. Unsurprisingly, mutual fund ratings are hugely popular and influential. Anecdotal evidence and academic findings both suggest that investors gravitate towards top-rated funds. Rating is a double-edged sword. Although the use of rating simplifies the otherwise onerous job of evaluating mutual fund performance, it can lead to adverse consequences. Investors who invest only in top-rated funds are inadvertently assuming that good ratings indicate good future performance. However, …

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Micro-Finance Competition: Motivated Micro-Lenders, Double-Dipping And Default, Brishti Guha, Prabal Roy Chowdhury Jan 2013

Micro-Finance Competition: Motivated Micro-Lenders, Double-Dipping And Default, Brishti Guha, Prabal Roy Chowdhury

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop a tractable model of competition among motivated MFIs. We find that equilibria may or may not involve double-dipping (and consequently default), with there being double-dipping whenever the MFIs are very profit-oriented. Moreover, in an equilibrium with double-dipping, borrowers who double-dip are actually worse off compared to those who do not. Further, for intermediate levels of motivation, there can be multiple equilibria, with a doubledipping equilibrium co-existing with a no default equilibrium. Interestingly, an increase in MFI competition can lower efficiency, as well as increase the extent of double-dipping and default. Further, the interest rates may go either way, …

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Impact Of Sovereign Debt Restructuring On Financial Flows: The Case Of Indonesia, Hwee Kwan Chow, C. Adams Jan 2013

Impact Of Sovereign Debt Restructuring On Financial Flows: The Case Of Indonesia, Hwee Kwan Chow, C. Adams

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.

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Estimation Of Monthly Volatility: An Empirical Comparison Of Realized Volatility, Garch And Acd-Icv Methods, Shouwei Liu, Yiu Kuen Tse Jan 2013

Estimation Of Monthly Volatility: An Empirical Comparison Of Realized Volatility, Garch And Acd-Icv Methods, Shouwei Liu, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

We apply the ACD-ICV method proposed by Tse and Yang (2011) for the estimation of intraday volatility to estimate monthly volatility, and empirically compare this method against the realized volatility (RV) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) methods. Our Monte Carlo results show that the ACD-ICV method performs well against the other two methods. Evidence on the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index (VIX) shows that it predicts the ACD-ICV volatility estimates better than it predicts the RV estimates. While the RV method is popular for the estimation of monthly volatility, its performance is inferior to the GARCH method.

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Can A Financial Conditions Index Guide Monetary Policy? The Case Of Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow Jan 2013

Can A Financial Conditions Index Guide Monetary Policy? The Case Of Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this study, we explore the issue of whether a financial conditions index can serve as a useful guide to monetary policy in the context of Singapore. To this end, we construct an index that comprises not only the usual monetary variables like interest rates, exchange rates and credit expansions but also asset prices such as stock prices and house prices. The choice of these constituent series is motivated by the role they play in the monetary transmission mechanism with consideration given to the key role leverage plays in modern business cycles and the risk-taking channel magnified by the prolonged …

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Ex Post Destruction In The Hold-Up Problem, Huan Wang, Juyuan Zhang, Yi Zhang Jan 2013

Ex Post Destruction In The Hold-Up Problem, Huan Wang, Juyuan Zhang, Yi Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We investigate whether or not ex post destruction can solve the hold-up problem. After clarifying the difference between ex post destruction and nontrade when negotiation breaks down, we show that the option of ex post destruction is not sufficient to enhance ex ante efficiency. In particular, only if the information about the spitefulness of the supplier is coarse enough, will the option of ex post destruction alleviate the inefficiency of underinvestment caused by the hold-up problem.

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Testing Whether The Underlying Continuous-Time Process Follows A Diffusion: An Infinitesimal Operator-Based Approach, Bin Chen, Zhaogang Song Jan 2013

Testing Whether The Underlying Continuous-Time Process Follows A Diffusion: An Infinitesimal Operator-Based Approach, Bin Chen, Zhaogang Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We develop a nonparametric test to check whether a process can be represented by a stochastic differential equation driven only by a Brownian motion. Our testing procedure utilizes the infinitesimal operator-based martingale characterization combined with a generalized spectral approach. Such a testing procedure is feasible and convenient because the infinitesimal operator of the diffusion process has a closed-form expression. The proposed test is applicable to both univariate and multivariate processes and has an  limit distribution under the diffusion hypothesis. Simulation and empirical studies show that the proposed test has reasonable performance in small samples.

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Monetary Regime Choice In Singapore: Would A Tayor Rule Outperform Exchange-Rate Management?, Hwee Kwan Chow, G.C. Lim, P. Mcnelis Jan 2013

Monetary Regime Choice In Singapore: Would A Tayor Rule Outperform Exchange-Rate Management?, Hwee Kwan Chow, G.C. Lim, P. Mcnelis

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper adopts a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium-vector autorgressive (DSGE-VAR) approach to examine the managed exchange-rate system at work in Singapore. We examine if the country has any reason to fear floating the exchange rate and adopting a Taylor rule. Our results show that, in terms of overall inflation volatility, the exchange rate rule has a comparative advantage over the Taylor rule when export price shocks are the major sources of real volatility, while a Taylor rule dominates when domestic productivity shocks drive real volatility. The exchange-rate rule also dominates the Taylor rule for reducing inflation persistence.

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Financial Development, International Capital Flows, And Aggregate Output, Jürgen Von Hagen, Haiping Zhang Jan 2013

Financial Development, International Capital Flows, And Aggregate Output, Jürgen Von Hagen, Haiping Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop a tractable two-country overlapping-generations model and show that cross-country differences in financial development can explain three recent empirical patterns of international capital flows: Financial capital flows from relatively poor to relatively rich countries, while foreign direct investment flows in the opposite direction; net capital flows go from poor to rich countries; despite its negative net international investment positions, the United States receives a positive net investment income. International capital mobility affects output in each country directly through the size of domestic investment and indirectly through the aggregate saving rate. Under certain conditions, the indirect effect may dominate the …

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Contracting Over Prices, Shurojit Chatterji, Sayantan Ghosal Dec 2012

Contracting Over Prices, Shurojit Chatterji, Sayantan Ghosal

Research Collection School Of Economics

We define a solution concept, perfectly contracted equilibrium, for an intertemporal exchange economy where agents are simultaneously price takers in spot commodity markets while engaging inefficient, non-Walrasian contracting over future prices. Without requiring that agents have perfect foresight, we show that perfectly contracted equilibrium outcomes are a subset of Pareto optimal allocations. It is a robust possibility for perfectly contracted equilibrium outcomes to differ from Arrow-Debreu equilibrium outcomes. We show that both centralized banking and retrading with bilateral contracting can lead to perfectly contracted equilibria.

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Money And Asset Prices With Uninsurable Risks, Nicolas L. Jacquet, Serene Tan Dec 2012

Money And Asset Prices With Uninsurable Risks, Nicolas L. Jacquet, Serene Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop a model where the coexistence of money and a higher yielding asset is endogenously obtained when no restriction is placed on the use of either object as a medium of exchange. Due to the presence of uninsurable risks, agents have, in equilibrium, di⁄erent relative valuations of the asset to money, and hence, the use of money as a means of payment is strictly preferred. This endogenous di⁄erence in the willingness of agents to use money over the asset implies that money carries a greater liquidity premium than the asset. We obtain that the asset strictly dominates money in …

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Can Us Economic Variables Predict Chinese Stock Market?, Jeremy Goh, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu, Yuchen Wang Nov 2012

Can Us Economic Variables Predict Chinese Stock Market?, Jeremy Goh, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu, Yuchen Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In the last few decades, we observed a significant increase in global economic activities and these activities may have an impact on both China's economy and stock market. Given the potential impact, we empirically examine whether US economic variables are leading indicators of the Chinese stock market. Prior to China joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) in the end of 2001, we find no statistical relationship between US economic variables and the Chinese stock market returns. However, we find US economic variables have statistically significant predictive power for periods after China's admission into the WTO. In addition, we show that …

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Foreign Direct Investment: Clearing The Infrastructure Bottlenecks, Kim Song Tan, Sim Yee Lau Oct 2012

Foreign Direct Investment: Clearing The Infrastructure Bottlenecks, Kim Song Tan, Sim Yee Lau

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.

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Detecting Bubbles In Hong Kong Residential Property Market, Matthew S. Yiu, Jun Yu, Lu Jin Aug 2012

Detecting Bubbles In Hong Kong Residential Property Market, Matthew S. Yiu, Jun Yu, Lu Jin

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study uses a newly developed bubble detection method (Phillips, Shi and Yu, 2011) to identify real estate bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market. Our empirical results reveal several positive bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market, including one in 1995, a stronger one in 1997, another one in 2004, and a more recent one in 2008. In addition, the method identifies two negative bubbles in the data, one in 2000 and the other one in 2001. These empirical results continue to be valid for the mass segment and the luxury segment. However, the method finds a …

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Nature Of Vix Jumps On Market Timing Of Hedge Funds, Yueh-Neng Lin, Choo Yong, Jeremy Goh Jun 2012

Nature Of Vix Jumps On Market Timing Of Hedge Funds, Yueh-Neng Lin, Choo Yong, Jeremy Goh

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The study indicates that Brownian motion, finite and infinite activity jumps are present in the ultra-high frequency VIX data. The total quadratic variation can be split into a continuous component of 29% and a jump component of 71%. Jump activities on ultra-high frequency VIX data are found informative in ex-ante identifying subgroups of hedge funds that deliver significant outperformance. In the months that follow large jumps, strategies exposing to long volatility and extreme risk tend to deliver positive performance in extreme market environments. In the months that follow small jumps, possibly as a result of trading illiquidity, most fund strategies …

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Out Of Sight, Out Of Mind: The Value Of Political Connections In Social Networks, Quoc-Anh Do, Yen Teik Lee, Bang Dang Nguyen, Kieu-Trang Nguyen May 2012

Out Of Sight, Out Of Mind: The Value Of Political Connections In Social Networks, Quoc-Anh Do, Yen Teik Lee, Bang Dang Nguyen, Kieu-Trang Nguyen

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper investigates the impact of social-network based political connections on firm value. We focus on the networks of university classmates and alumni among directors of U.S. public firms and congressmen. Comparing firms connected to elected versus defeated politicians in the Regression Discontinuity Design of close elections from 2000 to 2008, we provide evidence that political connections enhance firm value. However, the value of political connections varies in a more complex way than expected. While connections to powerful members of the Senate generate strong positive impact on firm value, connections to newly elected congressmen are less valuable to firms than …

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Off The Cliff And Back? Credit Conditions And International Trade During The Global Financial Crisis, Davin Chor, Manova Kalina May 2012

Off The Cliff And Back? Credit Conditions And International Trade During The Global Financial Crisis, Davin Chor, Manova Kalina

Research Collection School Of Economics

We examine the collapse of international trade flows during the 2008-2009 global financial crisis using detailed data on the evolution of monthly U.S. imports over the November 2006 - April 2009 period. We show that credit constraints and the reduction in the availability of external capital were an important channel through which the crisis affected trade volumes. We identify the effects of credit tightening by exploiting the variation in the cost of capital across countries and over time, as well as the variation in financial dependence across sectors. We find that countries with higher interbank interest rates and thus tighter …

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Markowitz 2.0: Innovations For Asset Allocation, Singapore Management University Mar 2012

Markowitz 2.0: Innovations For Asset Allocation, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

The economic wreckage from the 2008 global financial crisis dealt a blow to the theoretical foundations of finance and economic. Many of these theories, such as Markowitz’s Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), were considered received wisdom and taught in practically all business schools. But now they appeared inadequate to the task of handling the “fat-tails” and “black swans” of extreme market events. These crashes were also occurring far more often than predicted by these theories.

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Bayesian Hypothesis Testing In Latent Variable Models, Yong Li, Jun Yu Feb 2012

Bayesian Hypothesis Testing In Latent Variable Models, Yong Li, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Hypothesis testing using Bayes factors (BFs) is known not to be well defined under the improper prior. In the context of latent variable models, an additional problem with BFs is that they are difficult to compute. In this paper, a new Bayesian method, based on the decision theory and the EM algorithm, is introduced to test a point hypothesis in latent variable models. The new statistic is a by-product of the Bayesian MCMC output and, hence, easy to compute. It is shown that the new statistic is appropriately defined under improper priors because the method employs a continuous loss function. …

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Beyond Catch-Up To New Growth Sources, Hian Teck Hoon Feb 2012

Beyond Catch-Up To New Growth Sources, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

SMU Professor of Economics Hoon Hian Teck gave his take on the impact of the Budget announced last Friday and wrote that the 2012 Budget, in essence, recognises that Singapore is now making a transition from a phase of catch-up growth to being a mature economy. In this mature phase, Singapore needs new sources of growth, and policy interventions are necessary to boost the employability and wage earnings of low-wage and older workers. Professor Hoon is also Associate Dean at the SMU School of Economics.

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Micro-Finance Competition With Motivated Mfis, Brishti Guha, Prabal Roy Chowdhury Feb 2012

Micro-Finance Competition With Motivated Mfis, Brishti Guha, Prabal Roy Chowdhury

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we examine the effect of increased MFI competition, focusing on its implications for borrower targeting, both in the presence and the absence of double-dipping. In the absence of competition we find that the loans are more likely to go to relatively richer borrowers whenever inequality is not too large, and the technology is sufficiently convex. In the presence of competition, the results depend on whether double-dipping is feasible or not. In case double-dipping is not feasible, we find that the MFIs necessarily target the richer borrowers. Interestingly, it turns out that double-dipping may encourage the MFIs to …

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Risk Management In A Volatile Market, Singapore Management University Jan 2012

Risk Management In A Volatile Market, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

As stock markets around the world whipsaw in a manner that bewilders even the seasoned trader, an academic has suggested for financial institutions to look more closely at linking dynamic loss tail distributions to contagion modeling for effective risk management.

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Technical Analysis: An Asian Perspective, Siqin Liaw Jan 2012

Technical Analysis: An Asian Perspective, Siqin Liaw

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Technical analysis, namely the moving average rule and the channel rule, is applied to the currency of an Asian managed floating exchange rate regime (USD/SGD) to see if opportunities for profitable trading exist. Instead of using only daily or monthly data, higher frequency time frames of 10, 15, 30 and 60 minutes are analyzed. Profitable strategies (if any) will be broken down and analyzed within smaller time frames to see if the profits are specifically in sample.

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