Finance Commons^™

Optimal Stackelberg Strategies For Financing A Supply Chain Through Online Peer-To-Peer Lending, Guang-Xin Gao, Zhi-Ping Fan, Xin Fang, Yun Fong Lim

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In recent years, supply chain finance (SCF) through online peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms has gained its popularity. We study an SCF system with a manufacturer selling a product to a retailer that faces uncertain demand over a single period. We assume that either the retailer or the manufacturer faces a capital constraint and must borrow capital through an online P2P lending platform. The platform determines a service rate for the loan, the manufacturer sets a wholesale price for the product, and the retailer chooses its order quantity for the product. We identify optimal Stackelberg strategies of the participants in the …

A Dynamic Network Perspective On The Latent Group Structure Of Cryptocurrencies, Li Guo, Yubo Tao, Wolfgang Karl Hardle

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we study the latent group structure in cryptocurrencies market by forming a dynamic return inferred network with coin attributions. We develop a dynamic covariate-assisted spectral clustering method to detect the communities in dynamic network framework and prove its uniform consistency along the horizons. Applying our new method, we show the return inferred network structure and coin attributions, including algorithms and proof types, jointly determine the market segmentation. Based on the network model, we propose a novel "hard-to-value" measure using the centrality scores. Further analysis reveals that the group with a lower centrality score exhibits stronger short-term return …

Income And Subjective Well-Being: Evidence From Singapore's First National Non-Contributory Pension, Yanying Chen, Yi Jin Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

We use a new monthly panel and a difference-in-differences strategy to study the effects of an exogenous permanent income shock on subjective well-being along previously unexplored dimensions. This permanent income shock is the introduction of Singapore’s first national non-contributory pension, the Silver Support Scheme. The pension improved the life satisfaction of recipients, and appeared to be driven by social, household income, and economic satisfaction. Consistent with the predictions of standard consumption-savings models, well-being improved when the shock was unanticipated (at announcement), but did not improve significantly further when the shock was anticipated (at disbursement). In addition, we find evidence that …

Retirement Planning In The Age Of Disruption, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Do not underestimate retirement needs, plan early, and update your skills consistently to build up your nest-egg

Shorter business cycles, disruptive technology, and demographic changes have rendered single-employer careers a near impossibility. The need to learn, unlearn, and relearn to forge new career paths is now an accepted inevitability.

Inflation Expectations In Singapore: A Behavioural Approach, Alexander Clark, Aurobindo Ghosh, Samuel Hanes

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The expectations of economic agents have significant impact on their decisions and are key determinants of macroeconomic outcomes such as inflation, economic growth and unemployment. For example, if a worker believes that consumer prices will rise sharply next year, she would demand a wage increase. Similarly, a homeowner with a fixed interest mortgage might make an early repayment if she expects price levels to fall, knowing that the real value of her mortgage debt will increase. In these cases, expectations about inflation could lead to changes in behaviour and in the aggregate, influence prices and become self-fulfilling.

Quantitative Easing Auctions Of Treasury Bonds, Zhaogang Song, Haoxiang Zhu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The Federal Reserve uses (reverse) auctions to implement its purchases of Treasury bonds in quantitative easing (QE). To evaluate dealers’ offers across multiple bonds, the Fed relies on its internal yield curve model, fitted to secondary market bond prices. From November 2010 to September 2011, a one standard deviation increase in the cheapness of a Treasury bond (how much the market price of the bond is below a model-implied value) increases the Fed’s purchase quantity of that bond by 276 million and increases the auction costs on that bond by 2.6 cents per $100 par value, controlling for standard covariates. …

Investment And The Long Swings Of Unemployment, Hian Teck Hoon, Katsimi Margarita, Gylfi Zoega

Research Collection School Of Economics

We estimate the relationship between investment and unemployment over the time period 1960-2015 in 20 OECD countries. While neoclassical growth theory typically assumes full employment – with no effect of investment on unemployment – we find that over our sample period covering more than five decades, a statistically significant negative relationship does exist: when investment fell, unemployment increased. When the time period is broken down into two sub-periods to take account of the Great Recession, we find that the estimated coefficient of investment is slightly smaller when the period 2001-2015 is added to the 1960-2000 period. We also find a …

What Factors Determine Thesubsidiary Mode Of Overseas R&D By Developing-Country Mnes? Empirical Evidence From Chinese Subsidiaries Abroad, Yanyu Wang, Wei Xie, Jizhen Li, Chenxi Liu

PhD Student’s Publications Collection

This study examines the determinants of the subsidiary modes of overseas research anddevelopment (R&D) by Chinese multinational enterprises (MNEs). Based on resource-based view and absorptive capabilities, we propose that financial resources and technologi-cal resources have different effects on the selection of overseas R&D subsidiary modes,which are competence-exploiting mode or competence-creating mode. This is supportedby the empirical results in this paper using data from a survey of 40 Chinese overseasR&D subsidiaries. The results demonstrate that the parent firms with richer financialresources and more R&D expenses prefer the competence-exploiting mode, while the par-ent firms with more R&D personnel favor the competence-creating mode. …

Essays In Commodities And Freight Markets, Nelson Yap

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Chapter 1: Structural Changes in Functional Curves: Estimation and Testing

Abstract: This paper considers the estimation and testing of structural changes in functional curves that occurs at an unknown date. The functional principal component analysis is applied to the random functional curves, decomposing them into interpretable simple latent functions and random scalars. We model the random scalars using a simple autoregressive model and test for a change in parameters that occur at an unknown date. This method is applied to the crude oil futures market to estimate and date possible structural breaks during OPEC announcement periods from 1984 to 2017.

The Impact Of The Cost Of Car Ownership On House Price Gradient In Singapore, Naqun Huang, Jing Li, Amanda Ross

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper examines the extent to which a change in the cost of car ownership affects the house price gradient with respect to distance from the central business district (CBD). Theory suggests that if the cost of car ownership increases, then people will shift towards other modes of transportation, thus reducing house prices farther away from the CBD. However, the cost of car ownership is likely to be endogenous and correlated with various unobserved factors that also contribute to a change in the house price gradient. To obtain causal effects, we exploit a unique feature of Singapore’s car registration process. …

Clogged Intermediation: Were Home Buyers Crowded Out?, Hyunsoo Choi, Hyun-Soo Choi, Jung-Eun Kim

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Post-crisis policy interventions significantly increased the demand for mortgage refinancing, but could this surge in refinancing applications have crowded out the supply of credit to home buyers? In this paper, we examine two frictions that hamper financial intermediation and result in banks' substitution of home purchase loans for refinance loans: The risk capacity channel through which banks with limited risk appetites prefer safer loans over riskier loans, and the operating capacity channel through which banks with limited operating capacities prefer applications that require less screening time. We find that following the recent financial crisis, banks facing these capacity constraints indeed …

Clogged Intermediation: Were Home Buyers Crowded Out?, Hyunsoo Choi, Hyun-Soo Choi, Jung-Eun Kim

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Post-crisis policy interventions significantly increased the demand for mortgage refinancing, but could this surge in refinancing applications have crowded out the supply of credit to home buyers? In this paper, we examine two frictions that hamper financial intermediation and result in banks' substitution of home purchase loans for refinance loans: The risk capacity channel through which banks with limited risk appetites prefer safer loans over riskier loans, and the operating capacity channel through which banks with limited operating capacities prefer applications that require less screening time. We find that following the recent financial crisis, banks facing these capacity constraints indeed …

Volatility Spillovers And Linkages In Asian Stock Markets, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

Diebold–Yilmaz spillover indexes are computed for weekly return volatilities based on daily benchmark stock indexes of the US, the UK, and 10 Asian countries. We found (i) the strengthening of overall volatility spillovers is not a temporary surge but persisted after the crisis; (ii) the susceptibility of individual Asian stock markets to inward volatility transfers is linked to its degree of openness; and (iii) the Asian bourses are becoming more important emitters of financial shocks since the crisis. Rolling regressions on volatility linkages reveal the relative dominance of the US over the Japanese and Chinese bourses, and the level of …

Permanent Price Impact Asymmetry Of Trades With Institutional Constraints, Chiraphol N. Chiyachantana, Pankaj Jain, Christine Jiang, Vivek Sharma

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Dynamic institutional trading constraints related to capital, diversification, and short-selling asymmetrically affect the incorporation of new information as reflected in the permanent price impact of their trades. The sign of the permanent price impact asymmetry between institutional buys versus sells is positive at the initial stage of a price run-up and reverses due to changing constraints with a prolonged price run-up in a stock. Idiosyncratic volatility, analyst forecast dispersion, trading intensity, price dispersion, and bullish market conditions further sharpen the initial asymmetry, as well as its reversal after a price run-up.

The Flow Of Funds In Asean, Philip C. Zerrillo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In his novel, Memoirs of a Geisha, Arthur Golden wrote, “Water can carve its way even through stone. And when trapped, water makes a new path.” Something similar seems to be happening with the flow of funds in ASEAN.

Do Security Analysts Learn From Their Colleagues?, Kenny Phua, T. Mandy Tham, Chi Shen Wei

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine how learning from colleagues affects security analyst forecast outcomes. We represent the brokerage house as an information network of analysts connected through industry overlaps in their coverage portfolios. Analysts who are more centrally connected in their brokerage network produce more accurate forecast estimates and generate more influential forecast revisions. Consistent with learning, more central analysts tend to unwind their colleagues’ recent forecast errors in their forecast revisions. Learning appears to benefit all colleagues, as working at more interconnected brokerages (i.e., denser networks) improves forecast accuracy for all analysts.

Bubble Testing Under Deterministic Trends, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops the asymptotic theory of the ordinary least squares estimator of the autoregressive (AR) coefficient in various AR models, when data is generated from trend-stationary models in different forms. It is shown that, depending on how the autoregression is specified, the commonly used right-tailed unit root tests may tend to reject the null hypothesis of unit root in favor of the explosive alternative. A new procedure to implement the right-tailed unit root tests is proposed. It is shown that when the data generating process is trend-stationary, the test statistics based on the proposed procedure cannot find evidence of …

Essays On Transportation Cost, Social Security Retirement Income And Housing Market, Naqun Huang

Dissertations and Theses Collection

This dissertation comprises three papers that study how transportation cost affect price distribution across a city, how home equity affects the timing of pension withdrawal, and potential implications of macroprudential policies on the price informativeness. Specifically, the first paper examines how a change in the cost of car ownership affects housing price gradient with respect to distance from the central business district (CBD) in Singapore. The second paper investigates how household home equity affect the timing of claiming Social Security Retirement Income (SSRI) in the United States. The third paper explores how countercyclical policies in Singapore real estate market affect …

Twin Momentum: Fundamental Trends Matter, Dashan Huang, Huacheng Zhang, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using both the levels and the time-series trends of a collection of firms' major fundamentals, we find that fundamentals matter after all: they can also generate strong return momentum. A fundamental momentum strategy that goes long stocks with fundamental in the top quintile and short stocks with fundamental in the bottom quintile earns a monthly average return of 88 bps, and is comparable with the popular price momentum but has little correlation. Combining price momentum and fundamental momentum yields a twin momentum, which has an average return more than the sum of both price momentum and fundamental momentum. Twin momentum …

Hedging And Pricing Rent Risk With Search Frictions, Briana Chang, Hyunsoo Choi, Harrison Hong, Jeffrey Kubik

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The desire of risk-averse households to hedge rent risk is thought to increase home ownership and prices. While evidence for the ownership implication is compelling, support for the price effect is mixed. We show that an important reason is search frictions. Rent risk reduces outside options, leading to less-picky buyers and worse home/buyer matches. This attenuates the rise in the price-to-rent ratio that would otherwise occur without frictions. Consistent with our model, a house remains on the market for fewer days when rent risk is higher. Accounting for frictions significantly increases the effect of rent risk on home prices.

Hedging And Pricing Rent Risk With Search Frictions, Briana Chang, Hyunsoo Choi, Harrison Hong, Jeffrey Kubik

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The desire of risk-averse households to hedge rent risk is thought to increase home ownership and prices. While evidence for the ownership implication is compelling, support for the price effect is mixed. We show that an important reason is search frictions. Rent risk reduces outside options, leading to less-picky buyers and worse home/buyer matches. This attenuates the rise in the price-to-rent ratio that would otherwise occur without frictions. Consistent with our model, a house remains on the market for fewer days when rent risk is higher. Accounting for frictions significantly increases the effect of rent risk on home prices.

Forecasting Stock Returns In Good And Bad Times: The Role Of Market States, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper proposes a two-state predictive regression model and shows that stock market 12-month return (TMR), the time-series momentum predictor of Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen (2012), forecasts the aggregate stock market negatively in good times and positively in bad times. The out-of-sample R-squares are 0.96% and 1.72% in good and bad times, or 1.28% and 1.41% in NBER economic expansions and recessions, respectively. The TMR predictability pattern holds in the cross-section of U.S. stocks and the international markets. Our study shows that the absence of return predictability in good times, an important finding of recent studies, is largely driven by …

Liquidity In A Market For Unique Assets: Specified Pool And To-Be-Announced Trading In The Mortgage-Backed Securities Market, Pengjie Gao, Paul Schultz, Zhaogang Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) trade simultaneously in a market for specified pools (SPs) and in the to-be-announced (TBA) forward market. TBA trading creates liquidity by allowing thousands of different MBS to be traded in a handful of TBA contracts. SPs that are eligible to be traded as TBAs have significantly lower trading costs than other SPs. We present evidence that TBA eligibility, in addition to characteristics of TBA-eligible SPs, lowers trading costs. We show that dealers hedge SP inventory with TBA trades, and they are more likely to prearrange trades in SPs that are difficult to hedge.

Industry Integration And Stock Price Synchronicity, Hao Cheng, Kian Guan Lim, Tien Foo Sing, Long Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper provides an alternative explanation of the negative relationship between price synchronicity and proprietary right protection that are uncorrelated to the information hypothesis. Using empirical data for 40 countries, we show that stock market volatility and firm size have significant impact on stock price synchronicity. We find significant correlations of international R2 disparity with industry structure integrations. The derived industry integration indices that capture industry correlations significantly explain cross-sectional and temporal variations in price synchronicity. The results imply that tighter industry integration leads to higher R2, and also explain away the property rights factor found in the information hypothesis.

The Value Of Trading Relations In Turbulent Times, Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani, Zhaogang Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper investigates how dealers’ trading relations shape their trading behavior in the corporate bond market. Dealers charge lower spreads to dealers with whom they have the strongest ties and more so during periods of market turmoil. Systemically important dealers exploit their connections at the expense of peripheral dealers as well as clients, charging higher markups than to other core dealers. Also, intermediation chains lengthened by 20% following the collapse of a flagship dealer in 2008 and even more for institutions strongly connected to this dealer. Finally, dealers drastically reduced their inventory during the crisis.

The Value Of Trading Relations In Turbulent Times, Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani, Zhaogang Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper investigates how dealers’ trading relations shape their trading behavior in the corporate bond market. Dealers charge lower spreads to dealers with whom they have the strongest ties and more so during periods of market turmoil. Systemically important dealers exploit their connections at the expense of peripheral dealers as well as clients, charging higher markups than to other core dealers. Also, intermediation chains lengthened by 20% following the collapse of a flagship dealer in 2008 and even more for institutions strongly connected to this dealer. Finally, dealers drastically reduced their inventory during the crisis.

Enhancing Singapore’S Pension Scheme: A Blueprint For Further Flexibility, Koon Shing Kwong, Yiu Kuen Tse, Wai Sum Chan

Research Collection School of Economics

Building a social security system to ensure Singapore residents have peace of mind in funding for retirement has been at the top of Singapore government’s policy agenda over the last decade. Implementation of the Lifelong Income For the Elderly (LIFE) scheme in 2009 clearly shows that the government spares no effort in improving its pension scheme to boost its residents’ income after retirement. Despite the recent modifications to the LIFE scheme, Singapore residents must still choose between two plans: the Standard and Basic plans. To enhance the flexibility of the LIFE scheme with further streamlining of its fund management, we …

Does Wage-Inflation Targeting Complement Foreign Exchange Intervention? An Evaluation Of A Multi-Target, Two-Instrument Monetary Policy Framework, Taojun Xie, Jingting Liu, Joseph D. Alba, Wai-Mun Chia

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We assess the inclusion of wage inflation as an intermediate target of an emerging central bank using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with sticky wages and prices calibrated for the South Korean economy. The model includes wage inflation as an additional target jointly with domestic price inflation and the output gap in a Taylor- type interest rate rule operating with a sterilized foreign exchange (FX) intervention rule. Our results show a complementary relationship between wage inflation targeting and price inflation targeting. That is, by supplementing price inflation targeting with wage inflation targeting, welfare improves for cases with and without …

Firm Boundaries And Financing With Opportunistic Stakeholder Behaviour, Madhav S. Aney, Elie Appelbaum, Sanjay Banerji

Research Collection School Of Economics

We explore the impact of strategic behaviour between three major stakeholders, namelyequity holders, debt holders, and a supplier of a critical input, on the choice of a firm’s capitalstructure and its organisational design, determining in-house production versus outsourcing theprocurement of the critical input. We show that an opportunistic coalition of the supplierand debt holders can trigger strategic bankruptcy even when the firm is solvent. Equity holdersrespond to this by either eliminating the supplier by producing the input in-house, or by reducingthe exposure to debt by funding the firm’s capital requirement through equity. Both responsescreate inefficiency since production of the input …

Corporate Donations And Shareholder Value, Hao Liang, Luc Renneboog

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Do corporate donations enhance shareholder wealth or reflect agency problems? We address this question for a global sample of firms whereby we distinguish between charitable and political donations, as well as between donations in cash and in kind. We find that charitable donations are positively related to financial performance and firm value, which is consistent with the value-enhancement hypothesis. This positive effect on firm value is stronger for cash than in-kind donations. In contrast, political donations do not appear to enhance shareholder value, but rather tend to reflect agency problems, as they are higher for firms with poor internal corporate …