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Articles 121 - 150 of 505
Full-Text Articles in Finance
Inflation And Ukraine War Make It Challenging For Our Beloved Value Stores To Survive, Aurobindo Ghosh, Taimur Baig
Inflation And Ukraine War Make It Challenging For Our Beloved Value Stores To Survive, Aurobindo Ghosh, Taimur Baig
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In a joint commentary, SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) and Principal Investigator of DBS-SKBI Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations Project Aurobindo Ghosh and Chief Economist and Managing Director at DBS Bank Dr Taimur Baig discussed how global inflationary pressures and rising commodity prices due to war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia are culminating into a perfect storm and making it challenging for value stores to survive. They also gave advice on what value stores can do to survive this perfect storm.
Essays On Information Diffusion And Stock Market Efficiency & Analyst Style, Zuben Jin
Essays On Information Diffusion And Stock Market Efficiency & Analyst Style, Zuben Jin
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
The dissertation consists of three chapters on information diffusion and stock market efficiency and analyst style. The first chapter examines the asset pricing implications of investors’ inattention to non-obvious firm relatedness hidden in earnings calls. This chapter documents that the overlap in attention allocation over various business aspects serves as a time-sensitive proxy for firm relatedness. By employing the unsupervised topic modelling methodology, I characterize the attention allocation of earnings conference call participants (executives, investors and analysts) over topics discussed. I construct a novel cross-firm topic similarity measure that captures difficultto-observe and time-varying firm relatedness compared with existing peer-firm classification …
Information Acquisition And Market Friction, Bo Sang
Information Acquisition And Market Friction, Bo Sang
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
My dissertation consists of three papers related to information diversity, acquisition, and asymmetry. One part of the dissertation explores the implications of interactions among different market participants and subsequent price efficiency in the stock market. The empirical findings indicate the information diversity between individuals and institutional investors, as well as an important channel for retail investors to obtain useful information – through insider filings. The remaining part investigates the information asymmetry between issuers and naive investors in the cryptocurrency market. In Chapter 2, I aggregate trading signals from hedge funds and retail investors, in order to examine their information diversity …
Investor Sentiment And Paradigm Shifts In Equity Premium Forecasting, Liya Chu, Kai Li, Tony Xue-Zhong He, Jun Tu
Investor Sentiment And Paradigm Shifts In Equity Premium Forecasting, Liya Chu, Kai Li, Tony Xue-Zhong He, Jun Tu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This study investigates the impact of investor sentiment on excess equity return forecasting. A high (low) investor sentiment may weaken the connection between fundamental economic (behavioral-based non-fundamental) predictors and market returns. We find that although fundamental variables can be strong predictors when sentiment is low, they tend to lose their predictive power when investor sentiment is high. Non-fundamental predictors perform well during high-sentiment periods while their predictive ability deteriorates when investor sentiment is low. These paradigm shifts in equity return forecasting provide a key to understanding and resolving the lack of predictive power for both fundamental and non-fundamental variables debated …
Why Commonality Persists?, Chyng Wen Tee, Raja Velu, Zhaoque Zhou
Why Commonality Persists?, Chyng Wen Tee, Raja Velu, Zhaoque Zhou
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We show that order flows do not exhibit predictive power on asset returns, and their relationships have been static over time. We use a reduced-rank regression formulation to model both returns and the order flows as endogenous variables, and use investors' sentiment and attention as exogenous factors. We provide empiricalevidence to demonstrate that cross-sectional commonality in attention (sentiment) is linearly (nonlinearly) associated with both returns and order flows at the intraday level, while the sentiment and attentionmeasures themselves exhibit a nonlinear mutual relationship, thus revealing the multi-dimensional aspect of the commonality relationship.
Unconventional Monetary Policy And Disaster Risk: Evidence From The Subprime And Covid–19 Crises, Gustavo S. Cortes, George P. Gao, Felipe B. G. Silva, Zhaogang Song
Unconventional Monetary Policy And Disaster Risk: Evidence From The Subprime And Covid–19 Crises, Gustavo S. Cortes, George P. Gao, Felipe B. G. Silva, Zhaogang Song
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We compare the interventions conducted by the Federal Reserve in response to the subprime and COVID–19 crises with respect to their effectiveness in reducing disaster risk. Using model-free measures of disaster risk derived from daily options data, we document that interventions in response to both crises reduced tail risks in domestic equity markets. The spillover effects of the two crises have been markedly dissimilar. While subprime interventions are generally characterized by negative spillovers to international equity markets, policy responses to the COVID–19 crisis are generally associated with positive spillovers. We interpret these results as consistent with the different degrees of …
Do Underwriters Short-Change Corporations Issuing Bonds?, Choo Yong, Jeremy Goh, Lisa Yang
Do Underwriters Short-Change Corporations Issuing Bonds?, Choo Yong, Jeremy Goh, Lisa Yang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We confirm prior evidence that bonds on average are offered at prices below their immediate post-offer secondary market prices. However, in cases where banks lead-manage their own bond offerings the underpricing is significantly less as compared to other non-self-marketed offerings. These findings are robust across various matched samples and selection models. Our results suggest that the bond offering process is characterized by substantive agency conflicts between shareholders of corporations (issuers) and underwriters.
Financial Intermediaries And Contagion In Market Efficiency: The Case Of Etfs, Claire Yurong Hong, Frank Weikai Li, Avanidhar Subrahmanyam
Financial Intermediaries And Contagion In Market Efficiency: The Case Of Etfs, Claire Yurong Hong, Frank Weikai Li, Avanidhar Subrahmanyam
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Capital constraints of financial intermediaries can affect liquidity provision. We investigate whether these constraints spillover and consequently cause contagion in the degree of market efficiency across assets managed by a common intermediary. Specifically, we provide evidence of strong comovement in pricing gaps between ETFs and their constituents for ETFs served by the same lead market maker (LMM). The effects are stronger for ETFs that are more illiquid and volatile, when the underlying constituents of the ETFs are more costly to arbitrage, and for LMMs with more constrained capital. Using extreme disruptions in debt markets during COVID-19 as an experiment, we …
How Do Firms Respond To Reduced Private Equity Buyout Activity?, Yi-Hsin Lo
How Do Firms Respond To Reduced Private Equity Buyout Activity?, Yi-Hsin Lo
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper presents new evidence on the economic role of private equity buyouts by exploiting the staggered adoption of the constructive fraud provision by U.S. state courts. The law unintentionally shifts the credit default risk borne by existing unsecured creditors of the buyout target to the selling shareholders and lenders in the form of ex-post litigation risk, thereby discouraging buyout activity. Using a difference-in-differences framework, I find that firms raise less capital, reduce payouts and investments, and form alliances with employees. Firms also avoid positive NPV projects that carry too much risk. These findings are consistent with managers enjoying a …
Bank, Stock Market Efficiency And Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence From Asean-5, Asia-5 And Oecd-7 Countries, Swee Liang Tan
Bank, Stock Market Efficiency And Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence From Asean-5, Asia-5 And Oecd-7 Countries, Swee Liang Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper estimates bank and stock market efficiency associations with real per capita GDP growth by examining panel-data across three different regions using Beck-Katz Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) regression. It allows heteroskedastic and/or contemporaneously correlated disturbances across panels, with to specify a common first-order autocorrelation within the panel. The results suggest efficiency effects on growth is not unambiguous. The results suggest a threshold beyond which increase in bank overhead cost hurts economic growth, for developing countries. Likewise, there is a threshold beyond which increase in stock market turnover ratio hurts economic growth, for developed countries. One policy implication of the …
Sandwiched Between A Rock And A Hard Place?, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez
Sandwiched Between A Rock And A Hard Place?, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
The policy gap between US and China is likely to be widening further, potentially raising and unevenly distributing the risks of negative spillovers for Asia and the rest of the world.
Risk Price Variation: The Missing Half Of Empirical Asset Pricing, Andrew John Patton, Brian M. Weller
Risk Price Variation: The Missing Half Of Empirical Asset Pricing, Andrew John Patton, Brian M. Weller
Research Collection School Of Economics
Equal compensation across assets for the same risk exposures is a bedrock of asset pricing theory and empirics. Yet real-world frictions can violate this equality and create apparently high Sharpe ratio opportunities. We develop new methods for asset pricing with cross-sectional heterogeneity in compensation for risk. We extend k-means clustering to group assets by risk prices and introduce a formal test for whether differences in risk premiums across market segments are too large to occur by chance. We find significant evidence of cross-sectional variation in risk prices for almost all combinations of test assets, factor models, and time periods considered.
Investing In Low-Trust Countries: On The Role Of Social Trust In The Global Mutual Fund Industry, Massimo Massa, Chengwei Wang, Hong Zhang, Jian Zhang
Investing In Low-Trust Countries: On The Role Of Social Trust In The Global Mutual Fund Industry, Massimo Massa, Chengwei Wang, Hong Zhang, Jian Zhang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We hypothesize that social trust, in mitigating contracting incompleteness, may have an important effect on the activeness and effectiveness of delegated portfolio management. Using a complete sample of worldwide open-end mutual funds, we find that trust is positively associated with the activeness of funds and that trust-related active share delivers superior performance (e.g., approximately 2% per year for cross-border investments). Moreover, "trust in the market" and "trust in managers" play important yet different roles for different types of cross-border delegated portfolio management. Our results suggest that trust acts as a fundamental building block for delegated portfolio management.
Short Selling Etfs, Frank Weikai Li, Qifei Zhu
Short Selling Etfs, Frank Weikai Li, Qifei Zhu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We provide novel evidence that arbitrageurs use exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as an avenue to circumvent short-sale constraints at the stock level. Using a large sample of U.S. equity ETF holdings, we document that shorting activity on ETFs rises with the difficulty of shorting underlying stocks. Stocks heavily shorted via their holding ETFs underperform those that are lightly shorted. The return predictability of ETF shorting is distinct from stock-level shorting measures and is concentrated among stocks that face severe arbitrage constraints. These findings suggest that ETFs allow arbitrageurs to target overpriced stocks that are otherwise difficult to short.
A Panel Clustering Approach To Analyzing Bubble Behavior, Yanbo Liu, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
A Panel Clustering Approach To Analyzing Bubble Behavior, Yanbo Liu, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This study provides new mechanisms for identifying and estimating explosive bubbles in mixed-root panel autoregressions with a latent group structure. A post-clustering approach is employed that combines a recursive k-means clustering al-gorithm with panel-data test statistics for testing the presence of explosive roots in time series trajectories. Uniform consistency of the k-means clustering algorithm is established, showing that the post-clustering estimate is asymptotically equivalent to the oracle counterpart that uses the true group identities. Based on the estimated group membership, right-tailed self-normalized t-tests and coefficient-based J-tests, each with pivotal limit distributions, are introduced to detect the explosive roots. The usual …
The Industry Expertise Of Sell-Side Equity Analysts, Matthew Louis Dearth
The Industry Expertise Of Sell-Side Equity Analysts, Matthew Louis Dearth
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
Institutional investors, the most important consumer of analyst research, consistently rank industry knowledge as the most important attribute of analysts. Despite this, little is known about how investors measure industry knowledge since analyst output which can be evaluated objectively is usually associated with firm-level outcomes such as earnings forecasts or price targets. Comprehensive data are recently available for analyst forecasts of key performance indicators (“KPIs”), firm-performance metrics specific to a particular industry. Whereas reactions to earnings forecasts and other firm-level outputs only inform us about analyst skill in firm-level predictions, stock-price reactions to forecast revisions of industryspecific KPIs can proxy …
The Case Of Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Kong Weng Ho
The Case Of Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Kong Weng Ho
Research Collection School of Economics
The economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Singapore was more severe and protracted than the global financial crisis. Singapore responded with easing of the monetary policy stance, reinforcing financial stability, helping individuals to reduce debt obligations, easing business cashflow constraints, adjusting financial regulatory and supervisory protocols to cope with immediate challenges, and enabling the financial sectors to build long-term capabilities. Fiscal responses were unprecedented with four consecutive budgets and two ministerial statements, initially focusing on immediate assistance in respect of jobs, businesses, households, and later refined to providing more sector-specific assistance as the pandemic evolved with more detailed information …
The Influence Of International Oil Price Fluctuation On The Exchange Rate Of Countries Along The “Belt And Road”, Yijing Wang, Xueqing Geng, Kun Guo
The Influence Of International Oil Price Fluctuation On The Exchange Rate Of Countries Along The “Belt And Road”, Yijing Wang, Xueqing Geng, Kun Guo
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In recent years, the international crude oil price has become increasingly volatile. It influences the exchange rate changes of relevant countries through economic growth, price level, international balance of payments, and other channels. Such exchange rate fluctuations have caused certain risks for the development of China’s “Belt and Road” Initiative. This article analyzes the impact of oil price changes on the exchange rates of countries. Because the fluctuation of oil prices and exchange rates has shown the characteristics of multiple time scales, this study used the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method to obtain the long-cycle and short-cycle sequences of oil …
Treasury Inconvenience Yields During The Covid-19 Crisis, Zhiguo He, Stefan Nagel, Zhaogang Song
Treasury Inconvenience Yields During The Covid-19 Crisis, Zhiguo He, Stefan Nagel, Zhaogang Song
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In sharp contrast to most previous crisis episodes, the Treasury market experienced severe stress and illiquidity during the COVID-19 crisis, raising concerns that the safe-haven status of US Treasuries may be eroding. We document large shifts in Treasury ownership and temporary accumulation of Treasury and reverse repo positions on dealer balance sheets during this period. We build a dynamic equilibrium asset pricing model in which dealers subject to regulatory balance sheet constraints intermediate demand/supply shocks from habitat agents and provide repo financing to levered investors. The model predicts that Treasury inconvenience yields, measured as the spread between Treasuries and overnight-index …
Climate Change And Sustainability In Asean Countries, David K. Ding, Sarah E. Beh
Climate Change And Sustainability In Asean Countries, David K. Ding, Sarah E. Beh
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The ASEAN region is one of the most susceptible regions to climate change, with three of its countries—Myanmar, the Philippines, and Thailand—among those that have suffered the greatest fatalities and economic losses because of climate-related disasters. This paper reveals that the ASEAN’s environmental performance is sorely lagging other regions despite evidence of its cohesive and comprehensive efforts to mitigate emissions and build up adaptive capacity to climate-related disasters. Within the ASEAN, there exist gaps in environmental performance between each country. This suggests that increased cooperation between individual ASEAN countries is pertinent for the region to collectively combat climate change. In …
Vat Treatment Of The Financial Services: Implications For The Real Economy, Ismail Baydur, Fatih Yilmaz
Vat Treatment Of The Financial Services: Implications For The Real Economy, Ismail Baydur, Fatih Yilmaz
Research Collection School Of Economics
Financial institutions are exempt from the value-added tax (VAT) in most countries. We develop a general equilibrium model with endogenous firm entry and a banking sector to accommodate three key distortions related to exempt treatment: (i) self-supply bias in the banking sector, (ii) under-taxation of payment services, and (iii) input distortions in the business sector and tax cascading. We calibrate our model to the average of Germany, France, and the UK data. Our results show that repealing exempt treatment always increases tax revenues. However, welfare gains occur only at low VAT rates due to the hump-shaped VAT Laffer curve.
Harnessing Digitalization For Sustainable Economic Development: Insights For Asia, John Beirne, David Fernandez
Harnessing Digitalization For Sustainable Economic Development: Insights For Asia, John Beirne, David Fernandez
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Digitalization has helped to transform economies by enhancing competitiveness and productivity across a wide range of sectors. The use of big data and the rise of online platforms have accelerated this process over the past decade. In addition, the adoption of digital solutions in the face of social distancing and lockdown measures introduced due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been integral to the economic recovery process. The shift to a digitalized economy has also reduced barriers to market entry for firms, lowered inequality, and led to a promotion of social and economic inclusion. Advances in digital technology …
Algorithmic Transparency, Jian Sun
Algorithmic Transparency, Jian Sun
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
I study the optimal algorithmic disclosure in a lending market where lenders use a predictive algorithm to mitigate adverse selection. The predictive algorithm is unobservable to borrowers and uses a manipulable borrower feature as input. A regulator maximizes market efficiency by disclosing information about the statistical properties of variables embedded in the predictive algorithm to borrowers. Under the optimal disclosure policy, the posterior belief consists of two disjoint regions in which the borrower feature is more relevant and less relevant in predicting borrower quality, respectively. The optimal disclosure policy differentiates posterior lending market equilibria by the equilibrium data manipulation levels. …
Stock Return Prediction Using Financial News: A Unified Sequence Model Based On Hierarchical Attention And Long-Short Term Memory Networks, Haoling Chen, Peng Liu
Stock Return Prediction Using Financial News: A Unified Sequence Model Based On Hierarchical Attention And Long-Short Term Memory Networks, Haoling Chen, Peng Liu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Stock return prediction has been a hot topic in both research and industry given its potential for large financial gain. The return signal, apart from its inherent volatility and complexity, is often accompanied by a multitude of noises, such as other stocks’ performance, macroeconomic factors and financial news, etc. To better characterize these factors, we propose a new model that consists of two levels of sequence: an NLP-based module to capture the sequential nature of words and sentences in the financial news, and a time-series-based module to exploit the sequential nature of adjacent observations in the stock price. In this …
Volatility Timing Under Low-Volatility Strategy, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee
Volatility Timing Under Low-Volatility Strategy, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The authors show that the slope of the volatility decile portfolio’s return profile contains valuable information that can be used to time volatility under different market conditions in the United States. During good (bad) market conditions, the high- (low-) volatility portfolio produces the highest return. The authors proceed to devise a volatility timing strategy based on statistical tests on the slope of the volatility decile portfolio’s return profile. Volatility timing is achieved by being aggressive during strong growth periods and conservative during market downturns. Superior performance is obtained, with an additional return of 4.1% observed in the volatility timing strategy, …
Socially Responsible Corporate Customers, Rui Dai, Hao Liang, Lilian Ng
Socially Responsible Corporate Customers, Rui Dai, Hao Liang, Lilian Ng
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Corporate customers are an important stakeholder in global supply chains. We employ several unique international databases to test whether socially responsible corporate customers can infuse similar socially responsible business behavior in suppliers. Our findings suggest a unilateral effect on corporate social responsibility (CSR) only from customers to suppliers, an evidence further supported by exogenous variation in customers’ close-call CSR proposals and by product scandals. Customers exert influence on suppliers’ CSR through positive assortative matching and their decision-making process. Enhanced collaborative CSR efforts help improve operational efficiency and firm valuation of both customers and suppliers but increase only the customers’ future …
Analysis Of Factors Influencing The Bailout Of Distressed Enterprises By Local Asset Management Companies, Houwen Li
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
In recent years, the number of distressed enterprises in China has gradually increased due to radical enterprise strategies, excessive expansion, poor management, and a trend of accelerating growth. Unable to adapt to fierce market competition, a large number of “zombie enterprises” disrupt the market order, reduce the use efficiency of social resources, and aggravate market risks. However, some enterprises are
temporarily caught in financial distress due to a deterioration of their financial situation caused by factors such as debt structure or capital liquidity. If such enterprises can be bailed out in time, they can escape their distress, which not only …
Innovating In Traditional Real Estate Business Development Based On Value Co-Creation, Ya Zhang
Innovating In Traditional Real Estate Business Development Based On Value Co-Creation, Ya Zhang
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
The real estate industry is an important aspect of China's social development and plays a pivotal role in economic growth. With the development of urbanization in my country, the supply relationship in the real estate industry has changed, consumer demand has become more rational, and the real estate industry’s financial and investment attributes have been superimposed on the influence of the real estate industry. The competition among small and medium real estate companies with relatively weak resource endowments has become increasingly fierce. Some land expansion models can no longer adapt to the development of the new situation. How to survive …
A Study On Constructing The Fourth Financial Statement For The Performance Prediction And Value Assessment Of Internet Enterprises In The Food Industry, Jianxin Zhang
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
For a long time, industry, financial institutions, PE investment funds, and capital market investors have determined the business performance and market value of a company, usually based on the data of the three audited financial tables provided by the company, and further comprehensive analysis will be carried out the evaluation. Due to the limitations of accounting standards, the three financial tables cannot truly reflect all the business conditions of the enterprise. At the same time, the economic stage with traditional manufacturing as the main body and the economic stage with the digital economy as the main body are concerned with …
Air Pollution, Behavioral Bias, And The Disposition Effect In China, Jennifer (Jie) Li, Massimo Massa, Hong Zhang, Jian Zhang
Air Pollution, Behavioral Bias, And The Disposition Effect In China, Jennifer (Jie) Li, Massimo Massa, Hong Zhang, Jian Zhang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Inspired by the recent health science findings that air pollution affects mental health and cognition, we examine whether air pollution can intensify the cognitive bias observed in the financial markets. Based on a proprietary data set obtained from a large Chinese mutual fund family consisting of complete trading information for more than 773,198 ac-counts in 247 cities, we find that air pollution significantly increases investors' disposition effects. Analysis based on two plausible exogenous variations in air quality (the vast dissi-pation of air pollution caused by strong winds and the Huai River policy) supports a causal interpretation. Mood regulation provides a …