Finance Commons^™

Testing Asset Pricing Models On The Pakistan Stock Exchange, Kiran Lohano, Muhammad Kashif

Business Review

This study investigates the performance of CAPM, three-factor and five-factor asset pricing models on the Pakistan Stock Exchange using monthly data of 896 companies from November 2000 to December 2016. The results from the time-series approach show that the three-factor model performs relatively better than the CAPM and the five-factor model, whereas the cross-sectional approach establishes the superiority of the five-factor model. It can thus be concluded that it is important to incorporate factors, such as size, value, profitability and investment when predicting returns on securities in the Pakistan Stock Exchange.

Inflation Targeting And Exchange Rate Pass Through In Pakistan: Markov Switching Approach, Safia Minhaj, Muhammad Nishat

Business Review

This study uses Markov switching model to empirically track the existence of exchange rate pass through and inflation trends in Pakistan from 1982 to 2016. The results reveal a direct relationship between pass through and inflation. Furthermore, interest rate and trade variables have a significant impact on inflation. According to the smoothed probabilities, switches between regimes were sudden and sporadic till 1990, after which long spells were observed during high and low inflation regimes.

Earnings Response Coefficient As A Determinant Of Dividend Policy: Testing Free Cash Flow Theory On Non-Financial Dividend Paying Firms In The Pakistan Stock Exchange, Hamid Ullah, Anjum Ihsan

Business Review

This study tests Jensen’s free cash flow theory which states that managers overinvest retained earnings in negative NPV projects. A data set of 238 firms listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange for the period 1999 to 2016 is used. The results of the panel regression model show a significant positive association of the earnings response coefficient and dividend payout ratio, which supports the free cash flow theory in listed Pakistani firms. Moreover, the imposition of the capital gains tax and the financial crisis has further strengthened the positive relationship between ERC and dividend payout ratio.

Role Of Organizational Culture In Psychological Needs Satisfaction And Work Engagement, Quddsia Sadaf, Mudassar Aziz, Gulnaz Anjum

Business Review

This paper explores the role of organizational culture in the satisfaction of basic psychological needs and yielding work engagement among public and private sector managers. Results reveal that organizational culture confers employees with a sense of relatedness which promotes work engagement. Additionally, the study suggests that female managers have a higher need for relatedness, the satisfaction of all basic psychological needs is significantly higher among private sector employees and work satisfaction increases with increasing job level. This study can be used for the development of organizational culture to improve relatedness among employees with respect to gender and the type of …

An Evaluation Of The Forecast Performance Of Dsge And Var Models: The Case Of A Developing Country, Shahzad Ahmad, Adnan Haider

Business Review

This paper estimates a DSGE model and three versions of VAR models (VARX, BVARX and BVAR) to analyze forecasting performance of these models in context of Pakistan. VAR models and a medium-scale DSGE model are estimated using quarterly data (1980Q4-2017Q2). Expanding window recursive out-of-sample forecasts for GDP growth, call money rate, CPI inflation and percent change in exchange rate are generated and compared over the period 2009Q1-2017Q2. Forecasting performance is analyzed by the comparison of bias and root mean squared errors (RMSE). Analysis of forecasting performance over 1-8 quarters forecast horizon reveals that BVAR model provides relatively better forecast in …

Providing Protection For Better Outcomes: The Need For Boundary Walls At Schools In Pakistan, Abbas Ali Gillani

Business Review

This paper explores the importance of a boundary wall at school as a measure of protection and safety, by testing the correlation between a school having a boundary wall and its total enrolment. By using panel data estimation with year and district fixed effects we find that across all levels of schooling, having a boundary wall was correlated with higher total enrolment. Enrolment at primary, middle and high school was 4.0 per cent, 2.3 per cent and 3.0 per cent higher. Gender-wise breakup of the results shows similar correlation for both boys and girls at primary level. However, at middle …

The Reversal Strategy: A Test Case For An Emerging Market, Hilal Anwar Butt, Mohsin Sadaqat

Business Review

The reversal strategy in the Pakistan Stock Market has shown significant profits for the time period January 1993 - September 2017. The available asset pricing models are unable to link these returns with the risk premium. This paper explores an alternative channel of predicting risk premium. It suggests that reversal profits can be considered as compensation for providing liquidity to the market during times of high volatility. Results reveal that reversal is stronger for illiquid and volatile stocks. Furthermore, firms that show reversal, are cash constrained, have lower return on asset (ROA) and equity (ROE), lesser operating profitability (OP), investment …

Emotional Intensity: An Additional Dimension To Understand Emotional Confidence And Purchase Intentions, Wajid Hussain Rizvi

Business Review

This paper explores the role of emotional intensity as a determinant of emotional confidence and purchase intentions. It analyzes the difference between low and high emotional confidence and emotional intensity groups in terms of their purchase intentions in the car buying context. Only valence and combined valence-intensity structural models were used to assess respective influences on emotional confidence. The results reveal that the combined impact of valence and intensity has a greater positive and significant influence on emotional confidence. Furthermore, groups with higher emotional confidence and higher emotional intensity show higher purchase intentions. This study contributes to a better understanding …

Can Investors Benefit From Momentum Trading? Evidence From An Emerging Market, Sana Tauseef, Mohammad Nishat

Business Review

It is claimed that momentum trading strategies generate positive returns. This paper investigates the profitability of momentum investment strategies and their determinants for stocks listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange using data from the period 2001 to 2015. The results reveal that momentum returns for Pakistani stocks are as high as the returns reported for developed markets. Moreover, the returns earned over the sub-period 2001 to 2007 are mostly positive, whereas those earned over the sub-period 2009 to 2015 are mostly negative. Momentum returns in Pakistan, however, are not caused by temporary over or under reaction of investors in the …

Financing Burden Of Cpec, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

The ongoing debate on the impact of CPEC projects on future external payments’ obligations is welcome, but should be informed by analysis based on facts rather than opinion. The total committed amount under CPEC of $50 billion is divided into two broad categories: $35bn is allocated for energy projects while $15bn is for infrastructure, Gwadar development, industrial zones and mass transit schemes. The entire portfolio is to be completed by 2030. Therefore, the implementation schedule would determine the payments stream. Energy projects are planned for completion by 2020, but given the usual bureaucratic delays, it won’t be before 2023 that …

A Retrospective Insight Into Pakistan's Exchange Rate Regimes And Their Impact On The Economy, Lalarukh Ejaz, Madeeha Akhtar

Business Review

Nuclear tests carried out by Pakistan in May 1998 had a distinctive impact on the evolution of the exchange rate. This case describes what happened to the exchange rate before and after the nuclear tests and focuses on the overall impact of Pakistan’s transition from a hostile relationship with the US in the post-Cold War era to becoming an ally of the US in the war on terror. This case can be used to study the concepts of real and nominal exchange rates, the linkage between exchange rate policy and external balance, how exchange rate can be used as a …

The Nexus Of Financial Deepening, Economic Growth, And Poverty: The Case Of Pakistan, Abdur Rehman Aleemi, Muhammad Azam

Business Review

This study investigates the nexus of financial development, economic growth, and poverty for Pakistan over a prolonged period of time, 1960- 2012. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)-Bounds testing approach to co integration and Unrestricted Error Correction Model (UECM)along with VECM Granger causality have been applied to examine the long-run dynamic relationship among financial development, economic development and poverty. For that purpose, we have developed two models and adopted a new and relatively strong proxy for financial development. The results suggest that financial development negatively affects both long-run and short-run economic growth. However, financial development is found to be positively affecting per …

Does Esg Investment Enhance Investment Returns, Ca. Hemlata Chelawat, I.V. Trivedi

Business Review

Over the past decade, Environmental, Social and Governance Investment or ESG Investment has become a mainstream investment approach in the investment community around the world, especially in the US and Europe. There is increasing evidence from academic and practitioner research around the world that better ESG performance by companies leads to reduction in risks, improvement in financial performance, higher stock market valuations and hence, enhanced returns for investors investing in stocks of such companies. Hence, incorporating ESG factors can lead to better informed and improved investment decisions. This has led to development of ESG indices and fonds, to enable investors …

Impact Of Board Characteristics And Audit Committee On Financial Performance: A Study Of Manufacturing Sector Of Pakistan, Arfan Ali, Saad Bin Nasir

Business Review

The research will examine the role of corporate governance (CG) practices on firm’s financial performance. Population of this research will be manufacture sector of Pakistan. For the purposes of measurement of impact of corporate governance practices such as board size, board independence, CEO/chairman duality and audit committee will take as independent variables and for the measurement of firm’s performance return on assets and return on equity will take as dependent variables. Panel data regression model will used to estimate the impact of CG on firm performance.

Book Review Of: Why Nations Fail, Ashutosh Mani Dixit

Business Review

The purpose of this article is to assess the contribution of Why Nations Fail about its forefront claim that institution is exclusive determinant of nation’s economic outcome. This paper will examine its findings and put forward arguments and claims of prominent studies about economic development. The paper has been organized in two more section. Immediate section presents chapter wise summary of the book highlighting strengths and key outcomes. While the third section, which is the purpose of the article, offers a critique, than sums up in final section providing some concluding comments.

Asset Price Bubbles With Specific Focus On Stock Prices In Pakistan, Nawaz Ahmad, Rizwan Raheem Ahmed, Yaseen Ahmed Meenai

Business Review

This research paper is an attempt to investigate Asset Price Bubbles (APB) with reference to Pakistan stock market. The analysis of time series graph shows a linear trend between Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Money Supply Index (M2I) whereas a nonlinear trend with stock prices. Moreover, the graph also shows an unequal spread with the stock prices, which indicate Heteroskedasticity. Then, descriptive statistics test shows high Standard Deviations for stock prices compared with CPI and M2I, which indicate a higher volatility in stock prices. Finally, the hypothesis test for equality of variance concluded the presence of Asset Price Bubbles by …

The Ex-Dividend Day Stock Price Behavior: Evidence From Pakistan, Sana Tauseef, Mohammad Nishat

Business Review

The paper examines the ex-dividend day price behavior of the listed stocks in Karachi Stock Exchange for the period January 2009 to June 2010. During the examined period, there was no capital gain tax; however a 10% withholding tax applied on dividends. We use the standard event study methodology to examine the abnormal returns for days surrounding the exdividend day. The study reports a very low price drop ratios compared to their theoretical values. No significant excess returns are found on the exdividend day; however, significant positive abnormal returns are observed in the pre-event window and negative excess returns are …

Provincial Finances, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

Most analysts still focus on the federal budget not realising that there has been a significant shift in the allocation of fiscal resources towards the provinces. This is what should have happened in the first place. After all, most interactions take place between citizens and the government and almost all basic services are delivered by the provincial governments. The question that needs to be examined is whether or not this shift has proved beneficial for the citizens and if the annual provincial budgets ought to be examined in this light.

These budgets have raised a number of issues that need …

Policy Direction For The Budget, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

The contours of the upcoming budget in terms of size, outlays, revenue collection targets, fiscal deficit etc. have been spelled out by the finance minister at various fora and by the IMF in its reports. So, it is not very interesting to speculate on whether the tax targets are ambitious, expenditures understated and subsidies underplayed.

The purpose here is to suggest that budgetary estimates and projections should be formulated in the context of a medium-term policy framework. The objectives of such a framework should be: to accelerate the rate of economic growth and job creation; to keep inflationary expectations under …

Parallel Sessions (Consumer Behavior & Culture): An Investigation Of The Selection Criteria Of Islamic Banking In Pakistan: Customers’ Perspective, Zargham Ullah Khan

International Conference on Marketing

Banking system was firstly introduce in the era of Jews where large bankers use to do financial practices in the open market. In the past few decades‟ capitalistic economy gained momentum. Islamic banking was firstly introduced in Malaysia with the establishment of Islamic banks laid on the basis of SHARIAH compliance, during 1970-90 (Henry & Wilson, 2004; Iqbal &Mirakhor, 2007; Dusuki& Abdullah, 2007). Banking is as old as civilization found its way from barter economies towards market economy and price mechanism. At present the banks have an immense role in deciding the economic fate of any state. Strong banking system …

Promoting Islamic Finance, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

The government recently formed a high-powered committee to examine the current state of Islamic finance and suggest measures for future development.

The share of Islamic banks, introduced in Pakistan in parallel to the conventional banking system in 2001, has risen to 10pc of the banking assets in the country.

This achievement is not at all unimpressive considering that the growth rate of Islamic banking here is twice that of conventional banking.

Why is Islamic finance becoming popular worldwide and not only in Muslim countries? Muslims may be shifting towards it for reasons of faith but it is also receiving attention …

New Fiscal Federalism, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

The 7th NFC award and the 18th amendment to the constitution have brought about a fundamental structural change in the fiscal affairs of Pakistan. The federal government is no longer the main driver of fiscal policy. Power and resources have shifted, rightly so, to the provinces. The share of the federal government in the net proceeds of the divisible pool has come down to 42.5 percent while that of the provinces has gone up to 57.5 percent. Adding straight transfers, grants/ subventions and development loans to the provinces pushes this share further up.

The Budget Arithmetic, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

Pakistan's economic growth in the last four years has been quite disappointing both in relation to the preceding four years and compared to other South Asian countries. Austerity measures to contain fiscal deficit, achieve macroeconomic stability and reduce external borrowing have squeezed the space for public sector development programme. The uncertainty and lack of direction, political instability, energy shortages, security concerns and high interest rates have played to the fear of private sector which has withheld productive investment. Consequently, total investment-GDP ratio which had reached 23 percent has declined to 13 percent. Assuming that investment ratio and the incremental capital-output …

G-20 Summit And Debt Crisis Of Europe, Badar Alam Iqbal

Business Review

Europe is under debt threat, facing the biggest crisis of uncertainty. If Euro fails, Europe fails. Since the Second World War, this is the hardest hour for Europe. One of the biggest limitations of global integration of EU is that small and weak countries could not fall in line with strong economies. This crisis is the example in this regard. The recent summit at Cannes has failed in giving concrete solution to the debt crisis especially in case of Greece, Italy, Portugal, Ireland and Spain. The crisis in Greece and ltaly cost the resignations of two popular Prime Ministers. The …

Subsidizing The Rich, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

A progressive state caters to the needs of those, who are unable to generate adequate incomes and forced to live in subhuman conditions. Targeted subsidies to the poor are seen as an integral part of the state policy for promoting equity within a society. To finance these subsidies, the rich pay taxes. What is ironical in Pakistan is the role reversal — as those who should be financing subsidy to the needy, are its beneficiaries. First, they evade taxes on their income and then, they also receive bulk of subsidies and concessions to which they are least entitled. The only …

Maximising Benefits, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

The recent moves to devolve some of the functions and responsibilities of the federal government to the provinces through the 18th Amendment and the decision of the National Finance Commission (NFC) to allocate a larger portion of divisible tax pool to the provinces are highly commendable. These steps have the potential to overcome some of the structural difficulties and micro-economic distortions that have been keeping Pakistan as an underachiever economically and socially. In a multi-ethnic and multi-linguistic society, with one of the federating units being much advanced and enjoying political dominance, de-concentration of powers and equitable sharing of resources among …

Budget 2011–2012: All Eyes On The Centre, But Provinces Matter Too, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

The budget announced yesterday did not contain any surprises and was, as usual, an accounting statement of the revenues and expenditures of the federal government.

In so far as the content of economic policies and institutional changes was concerned, it made four departures from the past.

First, the federal excise duties are going to be phased out in the next three years and a beginning has been made in this year’s budget. Second, the exemptions and concessions in the tax regime available for a wide variety of activities without any coherence are being abolished, minimising some of the distortions and …

Lessons From Financial Crisis, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

SEPTEMBER 15, 2009 marked one year from the day American financial firm Lehman Brothers collapsed. The subsequent onslaught on the global financial system set in a recession of the magnitude not experienced since 1930.

Financial institutions considered rock solid such as AIG and Citibank came almost on the verge of collapse. The world economy contracted for the first time in decades. But a year later the ‘green shoots’ have started appearing and the consensus view is that the global economy is coming out of the storm.

Economic historians will take many years to fully analyse the causes of the crisis …

Surge In Islamic Finance Service Industry, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

The last five years have witnessed a huge expansion in the Islamic Finance Service Industry (IFSI). The current assets are estimated at over $ 500 billion in Islamic banking segment alone. More than 250 Shariah-compliant mutual funds are currently managing about US 11 billion dollars in assets. Corporate and sovereign sukuk bonds amounting to about $ 18 billion have been issued so far. The annual market capitalization of the stocks meeting the Dow Jones Islamic Market Index Criteria in Islamic countries is estimated at US $ 300 billion. The total assets of all the banking and non-banking financial services being …

The Casual Link Between Stock Returns And Trading Volume: Some Evidence From An Emerging Market, Abdul Rashid

Business Review

This paper investigates the dynamic association between daily stock index returns and percentage trading volume changes. To proceed with this, linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests are applied to the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) data. The analysis covers the span of about 5 years with 1266 daily observations. The same methodology is employed for two non-overlapping sub-periods to examine the robustness of the results. Unidirectional linear Granger causality from stock returns to trading volume is observed for the entire sample period and for both the sub-periods as well. The null hypothesis of linear Granger noncausality from percentage volume changes to …