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Articles 61 - 90 of 114
Full-Text Articles in Finance
Circadian Variations And Risky Decision Making, Sana Sra
Circadian Variations And Risky Decision Making, Sana Sra
Scripps Senior Theses
Over the past decades, decision making under risk has garnered a great amount of attention both in the field of economics and psychology. Although state-dependent variabilities of risk taking are well-documented, little is known about the effects of a person’s preferred time of day, or chronotype, in risky decision making. Under circumstances of circadian mismatch (e.g., when an “early bird” makes decisions in the evening), research suggests that decision making may reflect a greater reliance on heuristics, such as using stereotypes in social judgments. However, the effects of circadian mismatch on heuristics in risky decision making are relatively unexplored. This …
M&A Performance: Market’S Initial Reaction As An Unbiased Indicator Of Post-Acquisition Performance, Nikolaos Papageorgiou
M&A Performance: Market’S Initial Reaction As An Unbiased Indicator Of Post-Acquisition Performance, Nikolaos Papageorgiou
CMC Senior Theses
This paper investigates the reliability of the stock market’s initial reaction to M&A announcements as a predictor of actual post-acquisition performance. The two prevailing methods for evaluating M&A performance are event studies (stock market-based measures) and accounting-based measures. The present study combines these two performance evaluation approaches in a single empirical examination. Both the post-merger buy-and-hold abnormal returns and changes in ROA are used as actual post-acquisition performance variables. The acquirer’s cumulative abnormal return (CAR) around the announcement is used as the market predictor variable. An econometric model is employed to test the predictive power of the announcement-period CAR on …
What Do We Know About The Recent Performance Of Indian Banks?, Laira Aggarwal
What Do We Know About The Recent Performance Of Indian Banks?, Laira Aggarwal
CMC Senior Theses
This paper examines the performance of Indian banks by studying the effects of recent reforms and macroeconomic events. Indian banks went through a period of reforms in the past twenty years. The impact of these reforms and major macroeconomic events has been examined using time-series analysis. Event studies offer additional perspective on the short-run effect of the events on different types of Indian banks. Although, the event dates are not all statistically significant in the time-series regressions, the demonetization of 2016 is significant in the event study analysis. Thus, while reforms and events have immediate impact on the performance of …
Model Specification For Bank Failure: A Retrospective Look At Banks In Missouri During The Great Depression, Peter Welch
Model Specification For Bank Failure: A Retrospective Look At Banks In Missouri During The Great Depression, Peter Welch
CMC Senior Theses
This paper examines banks in Missouri during the Great Depression in order to find the correct model specification for bank failure during economic downturns. The data set controls for a bank’s balance sheet, correspondent network, charters and memberships, county characteristics, and market share, and includes both Federal Reserve member and non-member banks. Using a probit model, it is concluded that the contractionary monetary policy employed by the St. Louis Federal Reserve did not help bank survival, as being a member of the Federal Reserve had no significant effect on a bank’s probability of survival. Additionally, while an increased network led …
The Effects Of The Correspondent Banking Network On The Real Economy, Jack Brown
The Effects Of The Correspondent Banking Network On The Real Economy, Jack Brown
CMC Senior Theses
There is a longstanding academic debate regarding the role of financial networks. There is a tradeoff between improving the flow of funds and acting as a channel for contagion. This paper investigates the impact of banking networks on the real economy during the Great Depression. Building permit values are used as a proxy for real economic activity as implemented in previous research. A simple linear regression model estimated by ordinary least squares is used such that locational networks are differentiated from networks links to money centers and non-money centers. The results demonstrate that financial networks have both positive and negative …
Are Volatility Expectations In Different Countries Interdependent? A Data-Driven Solution To Structural Var Identification For Implied Equity Volatility Indices, Timothy H. De Silva
Are Volatility Expectations In Different Countries Interdependent? A Data-Driven Solution To Structural Var Identification For Implied Equity Volatility Indices, Timothy H. De Silva
CMC Senior Theses
Over the past couple of decades, the number of volatility indices has increased rapidly. These indices seek to represent the market’s expectation of realized volatility over the coming month, based on the prices of options traded on each underlying equity index. Although the dynamics of realized volatility spillover have been studied extensively, very few studies exists that examine the spillover between these volatility indices. By using DAG-based structural vector autoregression, this paper provides evidence that implied volatility spillover differs from realized volatility spillover. Through solving the well-known VAR identification problem for these indices, this paper finds that Asia, more specifically …
Ipo Underpricing And Insider Wealth Maximization In Internet Firms, Bhavika Booragadda
Ipo Underpricing And Insider Wealth Maximization In Internet Firms, Bhavika Booragadda
CMC Senior Theses
This paper empirically tests the theoretical model developed by Aggarwal, Krigman and Womack (2001), which argues that insiders of a firm strategically underprice its initial public offering to maximize personal wealth by selling shares at lockup expiration. First day underpricing generates information momentum for the stock in terms of increased research coverage and recommendations by analysts. Increased research coverage is positively correlated with stock returns and insider selling at the end of the lockup period. Although the value of the stock should be typically based on discounted expected future cash flows, several empirical papers suggest a downward sloping demand curves …
Returns To Buying Winners And Selling Losers: A Look At Cryptocurrencies, Daniel Walker
Returns To Buying Winners And Selling Losers: A Look At Cryptocurrencies, Daniel Walker
CMC Senior Theses
This paper is, to my knowledge, one of the first ever to examine the effectiveness of price momentum trading strategies applied to cryptocurrencies. Using aggregate OHLCV (Open, High, Low, Close, Volume) data on cryptocurrency pairs from Poloniex, Bittrex, and Bitfinex, I apply Jegadeesh and Titman’s classic -month/-month momentum trading strategy, reporting annual returns with and without incorporating trading fees. Portfolios are resampled daily, weekly, and monthly, testing lookback and holding periods ranging from one day to one year. The results show that trading cryptocurrencies using momentum strategies derives returns that rapidly increase the more often portfolios are resampled, with the …
The Effect Of The Change In Call Loan Rates And Volatility On Stock Returns In 1929: An Empirical Study Into A Determinant Of The Great Depression, Amberish Chitre
The Effect Of The Change In Call Loan Rates And Volatility On Stock Returns In 1929: An Empirical Study Into A Determinant Of The Great Depression, Amberish Chitre
CMC Senior Theses
I investigate the effect of the change in call loan rates on stock returns during 1929. Call loan rates are the interest rates on borrowed funds to trade equity on a given exchange. It is estimated that 40% of stocks during this period were bought on margin. After a price decline comes a margin call, followed by a forced sales of securities, which leads to additional margin calls and future price declines. I regress daily excess returns on the change in daily call loan rates during 1929. In addition, I estimate volatility using an ARCH model and observe the previously …
You Can Run But You Can’T Hide: The Advance Of Shareholder Activism, Kendall Greenberg
You Can Run But You Can’T Hide: The Advance Of Shareholder Activism, Kendall Greenberg
CMC Senior Theses
Shareholder activism has exploded in popularity since the turn of the century, due in large part to impressive relative returns generated by its major participants. The result has thus been a surge in assets invested in the category, to in excess of $170 billion today up from less than $3 billion in 2000 (Inglis 2015; Romito 2015). This influx of capital, in absolute dollars and pace of growth, has caused many to wonder whether activists truly create shareholder value and, if so, if the value generated is sustainable. Numerous studies of activist interventions prior to 2009 reveal significant stock price …
Getting Girls In Stem & The Dangers Of Forgetting That Science Is Art - Someone Made It Up, Heidi Therese Dangelmaier, Camilla Hermann
Getting Girls In Stem & The Dangers Of Forgetting That Science Is Art - Someone Made It Up, Heidi Therese Dangelmaier, Camilla Hermann
The Transdisciplinary STEAM+ Journal
Encouraging girls to participate in STEM is a hot topic that has captured the concern of the world’s academic, business and scientific communities. The intention is noble, however the strategies being deployed are reinforcing the very bias society seeks to eliminate. If we wish to advance our evolutionary journey as a species, a shift from “feeling sorry for disadvantaged girls” to “fearing STEM without girls’ reformation” is imperative. This piece discusses the rise to an initiative to redesign culture: Girlapproved.
Is Silence The Answer?, Gator Adams
Is Silence The Answer?, Gator Adams
CMC Senior Theses
This study examines the relationship between company management guidance, and ex-ante crash risk over the duration of 2008(Jan 2006-Dec 2009) financial crisis using the implied volatility skew, which is based upon ex-ante volatility implied by the pricing model developed by Black-Scholes (1973). The study finds that over the duration of this crisis period, management guidance decreases with a rise in ex-ante crash risk. Further, the study provides evidence on the relationship of management guidance and earnings volatility, and how that is affected by a firm's industry product concentration based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) score.
Australian Real Estate Stock Reactions To Firb Regulation Changes, Henry Wei
Australian Real Estate Stock Reactions To Firb Regulation Changes, Henry Wei
CMC Senior Theses
This study analyzes the share price reactions to real estate development and building/construction materials corporations in relation to FIRB rule changes. It appears companies as a whole were indifferent to the rule changes; however individual securities returns were wildly different. These findings suggest that the FIRB rule changes had a mixed effect on different corporations possibly based on their exposure to the Australian real estate market.
Does Fundamental Analysis Lead To A Rudimentary Momentum Strategy For The Inexperienced Investor? Evidence From A Student Investment Fund, Nicholas J. Lillie
Does Fundamental Analysis Lead To A Rudimentary Momentum Strategy For The Inexperienced Investor? Evidence From A Student Investment Fund, Nicholas J. Lillie
CMC Senior Theses
Using the Student Investment Fund at Claremont McKenna College as a proxy for inexperienced investors, I demonstrate that inexperienced investors using fundamental analysis produce momentum-like buying patterns. The results show that the Student Investment Fund is on average buying stocks that outperform Carhart’s four-factor asset pricing model in the year before purchase. As a result, the Student Investment Fund has, on average, underperformed the S&P500 by .48% per year since 1996. My thesis explores why the Student Investment Fund may have adopted momentum-like purchasing patterns and what steps can be taken to remedy it.
Are Donald Trump And Hillary Clinton Controlling The Stock Market? An Analysis Of The 2016 Presidential Election's Impact On Stock Market Volatility, Julia Tambone
Scripps Senior Theses
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump ran highly controversial campaigns in the 2016 Presidential Election, which then leaves us with the question of what impact is this having on the current economy? Prior analysis of political influence on the stock market tells us that isolating political impact on the stock market is nearly impossible. However, there are clearly defined 4-year cycles in stock prices that seem to correspond with election years. In this paper, I create my own index of stocks in the four major U.S. industries and measure both day-to-day and intraday volatility in stock prices across three comparable time …
The Real Estate And Stock Market During The Great Depression: Construction Permit Growth As A Leading Economic Indicator For Stock Returns, Will Cresap
CMC Senior Theses
The 1929 stock market crash on Black Thursday, followed by the subsequent four-year period of extreme economic downturn, signifies an extremely profound piece of U.S. history. During this time, global economic productivity – measured by GDP – decreased while the U.S. unemployment rate increased staggeringly. Leveraging construction permits as a forward-looking measure of economic activity, I empirically evaluate the effect of construction permits – specifically, the lagged growth rate of monthly construction permits – and lagged monthly stock returns on monthly Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock returns. Lagged construction permit returns and lagged stock returns provide early indications …
The Effects Of The 1933 Bank Holiday And The Emergency Banking Act Of 1933 On The Systematic Risks Of Various Industries, James E. Ingram
The Effects Of The 1933 Bank Holiday And The Emergency Banking Act Of 1933 On The Systematic Risks Of Various Industries, James E. Ingram
CMC Senior Theses
Utilizing the industry portfolio classifications that Fama and French provide in their data library, I analyze the specific effects that the 1933 Bank Holiday has on various industries. My empirical results go beyond what Silber (2009) determines to be significantly positive abnormal market returns on March 15, 1933, which is the day after the Bank Holiday and the largest ever one-day increase in the stock market. I use the CAPM and the Fama-French 3-factor Model to find significant systematic risk decreases after the Bank Holiday in the Coal and Transportation industries, as well as systematic risk increases in Consumer Goods …
A Critical Examination Of Oil Wealth Management Strategies And Their Effects On Economic Growth In The Gulf Cooperation Council Countries, Caroline J. Belmont
A Critical Examination Of Oil Wealth Management Strategies And Their Effects On Economic Growth In The Gulf Cooperation Council Countries, Caroline J. Belmont
CMC Senior Theses
Despite their natural resources, the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman) have failed to live up to their economic potential, primarily due to their dependence on a revenue source with volatile prices and political significance in an unstable region. This thesis argues that the best way to convert oil wealth into consistent long term growth is through diversification, both by investing in foreign assets and by growing domestic sectors that are independent from oil and gas prices. The research further investigates the primary tool these countries have used to …
An Event Study Analysis Of American Bank Holding Company Equity Returns Upon Basel Iii Announcement, Brian R. Delaney
An Event Study Analysis Of American Bank Holding Company Equity Returns Upon Basel Iii Announcement, Brian R. Delaney
CMC Senior Theses
This study examines the trading activity of a large cross section of American bank holding companies upon various sub-events associated with the introduction of Basel III. An event study methodology was applied to various sub-composite portfolios, as determined by regulatory capitalization and leverage ratios. The results suggest that statically significant abnormal negative returns occurred on the announcement to negotiate due to heightened regulatory uncertainty, especially amongst the least capitalized and highest leveraged banks. However, this effect is complemented by statically significant positive returns upon the release of the initial guidelines. Reactions to subsequent events report to be less significant.
A Re-Examination Of Rating Shopping And Catering Using Post-Crisis Data On Cdos, Robert H. Owlett
A Re-Examination Of Rating Shopping And Catering Using Post-Crisis Data On Cdos, Robert H. Owlett
CMC Senior Theses
I re-examine “rating shopping” and “rating catering” in the market for AAA rated collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) by replicating the study of Griffin and Tang (2013) using post-crisis data. I find a sharp increase in the amount of CDOs that received a single rating, suggesting that CDO underwriters were more cautious about formally soliciting multiple ratings. However, I also find a decrease in AAA rating disagreements between S&P and Moody’s, implying that issuers shopped their CDOs through informal conversations with agencies. Finally, I find investors correctly accepted tighter credit spreads for dual-rated CDOs because dual-rated CDOs experienced fewer rating downgrades …
Market Sensitivity Of A High Frequency Trading Firm Stock, Rosalie Frazier
Market Sensitivity Of A High Frequency Trading Firm Stock, Rosalie Frazier
Scripps Senior Theses
The major purpose of this study is to explore the stock movements of a publicly traded high-frequency trading firm, Virtu Financial. Virtu Financial, as of November 2015, is the only publicly traded high frequency trading firm, offering a opportunity to study the market behavior of a new kind of stock. Since Virtu serves as a unique financial intermediary, my hypothesis is that Virtu should be a market-neutral company since it is able to profit equally in economic upswings and downturns. This study uses a regression based on the Fama and French three factor model, focusing on the influence of the …
Reverse Line Movements In Nfl Gambling: Parallels To Financial Market Biases And The Imitation Of Informed Bettor Strategies, Philip S. Crawford
Reverse Line Movements In Nfl Gambling: Parallels To Financial Market Biases And The Imitation Of Informed Bettor Strategies, Philip S. Crawford
CMC Senior Theses
Participants in the NFL gambling market can largely be divided into two distinct groups: informed bettors (“Sharps”) and uninformed bettors (“Squares”). Empirical and anecdotal evidence suggest that the dynamic between Sharp and Square bettors is very similar to that between institutional and retail investors. Professionals tend to be far better informed and utilize rational betting/investing strategies while individuals exhibit biases which perpetuate irrational strategies and therefore pricing inefficiencies. This study finds that uninformed participants in financial markets and the NFL betting market do share similar biases, and that these biases can be exploited by informed participants to generate positive excess …
Promoting Bold Investment In Renewable Energy Research And Development, Melanie C. Paty
Promoting Bold Investment In Renewable Energy Research And Development, Melanie C. Paty
CMC Senior Theses
This thesis discusses the potential for private investment to fund ambitious renewable energy research and development to help mitigate climate change. I begin by discussing the threat of global warming and a brief history of renewable energy development in the United States. Next, I discuss existing avenues for private investment in renewable energy, potential methods of increasing corporate participation, and the belief that businesses must maximize only financial profits. Then I perform an in-depth case study of pension funds that have incorporated a social or environmental mission, existing environmentally focused mutual funds, and liquidated clean energy mutual funds. Finally, I …
Successfully Financing Classical Music Kickstarter Projects, Sarah Chung
Successfully Financing Classical Music Kickstarter Projects, Sarah Chung
Scripps Senior Theses
With the rise of technology and finance, crowdfunding has been uprising as a popular method of financing projects. Kickstarter provides an online platform in which anyone with Internet access can upload their own project “pitch” to gain funding for their idea on an all-or-nothing model. My thesis explores financial trends and factors that potentially contribute to a successful Kickstarter campaign within the classical music projects subcategory. I use a logistic regression and the Ordinary Least Squares model to examine a dataset of already successfully funded projects and a second dataset that contains both successfully and unsuccessfully funded projects that were …
Mergers & Abenomics: The Determinants Of M&A In Japan's New Economy, Ethan S. Hallberg
Mergers & Abenomics: The Determinants Of M&A In Japan's New Economy, Ethan S. Hallberg
CMC Senior Theses
This paper investigates the influence of various macroeconomic variables on Japan’s merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, both in terms of total deal value and total number of deals. Looking at monthly data from June 1997 to December 2013, I use econometric time-series analysis to find that: First, total deal value per month is not well explained by our macroeconomic variables, but about half of the variation in number of deals per month can be explained by our dataset. Second, the most important determinant in the total number of deals per month during our period is the level of national debt, …
Bitcoin: Is Cryptocurrency Viable?, Austin Hill
Bitcoin: Is Cryptocurrency Viable?, Austin Hill
CMC Senior Theses
Bitcoin, a virtual currency invented in 2009, was created as a peer-to-peer currency that eliminated the need for a third party authority, such as banks or government, to be involved in monetary transactions. Having no intrinsic value but carrying no government guarantees relegates bitcoin and its competitors to the perpetual role of investment opportunity, deriving value not from a practical use, but from a nominal, dollar value. This will continue to be the case until the U.S. Government sanctions virtual currency as a viable store of value. Because the dollar plays such a large role in the world’s economy, other …
Determinants Of Public Funding For Professional Athletic Venues, John K. Holland
Determinants Of Public Funding For Professional Athletic Venues, John K. Holland
CMC Senior Theses
This paper examines the financing of professional athletic venues and why certain franchises are able to obtain high percentages of overall stadium funding from the public. Existing literature shows the negligible effect of new athletic venues on the local economy and per capita income, and therefore the benefits from such a project are largely intangible. I use an ordinary least squares regression and show that the more successful a team is the less public funding they tend to receive. I also find that broad city statistics do not represent the specific areas that policy makers consider when making decisions about …
The Rise Of Private Equity In China: A Case Study Of Successful And Failed Foreign Private Equity Investments, June Kim
CMC Senior Theses
China's transition from a planned economy to a market economy has brought about remarkably rapid economic growth. Year after year, China boasted of double-digit growth rates since the early 1990s. Attracted by China's so-called "economic miracle," foreign investors began entering the Chinese market hoping to benefit from the country's vast array of financial opportunities. Private equity, particularly a leveraged buyout, was an unfamiliar concept in China until late 1990s. Now China has become the most attractive destination among emerging markets for private equity investment. Global private equity firms are currently raising billions of dollars for funds focusing on China because …
The Liberalization Of Shibor And The Economic Fundamentals Of House Price Growth In China, Michael J. Mavredakis
The Liberalization Of Shibor And The Economic Fundamentals Of House Price Growth In China, Michael J. Mavredakis
CMC Senior Theses
This paper uses data collected from the National Interbank Funding Center of China, the People’s Bank of China, the National Bureau of Statistics, and Bloomberg starting in October 2006 through 2013 to test the economic fundamental’s affecting the housing market in Shanghai, particularly interest rates. This study finds that the 6- month duration Shibor has a negative and significant correlation with house price growth in Shanghai when lagged 4 months. The analysis continues by examining other economic fundamentals affecting house price growth, finding growth in inflation, the money supply and Shanghai real estate investment to have significant, positive relationships with …
The Deadweight Loss Of Equity-Based Compensation, Jessica Pence
The Deadweight Loss Of Equity-Based Compensation, Jessica Pence
CMC Senior Theses
In order to maximize shareholder value, firms attempt to align the incentives of the executives with those of the shareholders by giving them equity as a portion of their compensation package. The terms associated with this equity compensation forces the executives to hold undiversified portfolios, resulting in a sizeable deadweight loss. This paper uses the formula developed by Meulbroek (2001)1 to calculate the dollar value of this deadweight loss, in order to quantify the costs associated with equity-based compensation. We find that the 56 executives in our data set have a combined deadweight loss of $70 billion, and that on …