Finance Commons^™

The Role Of The International Monetary Funds (Imf) In The East Asian Debt Crisis Of 1997, Yaro Sadek Tahirou

Journal of Undergraduate Research at Minnesota State University, Mankato

During the East Asian Financial crisis in particular, the IMF has been criticized of promoting international cooperation because of the supervised enforcement of its rules. The purpose of this research is to find out how the IMF responded to the East Asian debt crisis and whether or not its responses were the best possible responses to this crisis. Through my research, I talked about the causes of the East Asian financial crisis, the role of the IMF in the international monetary system, and if the IMF responses to Thailand, South Korea and Indonesia were the best responses or not. After …

International Transmission Of Interest Rates And The Open Economy Trilemma In Asia, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

There has recently been much discussion on the relevance of the open economy trilemma in the context of deepening financial integration of countries across the world (see for instance, Rey (2013) and Devereux and Yetman (2014)). The open economy trilemma is an important issue for the countries in Asia not least because their financial systems are small and exchange rate stability is crucial to their economic growth. This paper investigates whether the economies in Asia are still bound by the "impossible trinity" by examining the interest rate transmission from the US to the region before and after the onset of …

Why Cpf-Style Systems Generally Work Better, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Central Provident Fund (CPF) has been in existence since 1955, and plays an important role in the lives of millions of Singaporeans. But this does not mean there is nothing to be learnt from asking some fundamental questions about its usefulness.

Is The Renminbi East Asia’S Dominant Reference Currency? A Reconsideration, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

Recent empirical studies show that the Chinese currency renminbi is either becoming or has become a dominant reference currency in Asia. However, the high correlation between the US dollar and renminbi movements hampers the identification of their individual effects on the Asian currencies. In particular, the application of Frankel-Wei regressions to determine the weights of the US dollar and the (unorthogonalized) renminbi in the implicit currency baskets could suffer from endogeneity problems that produce an upward bias in renminbi’s estimated weight. This paper reviews the evidence by applying country-specific VAR models to daily exchange rate data from nine Asian economies …

Commodity Super Cycles: A Reality Check, Maureen Derooij

Asian Management Insights

Do commodity super cycles exist, or are we simply seeing patterns in randomness? More importantly, are we in the middle of one that is showing signs of going bust?

Wealth Management In Singapore, Francis Koh

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

As early as 2015, Singapore may oust Switzerland as the world’s top finance hub. But the path forward requires adjustments in the strategic direction of individual firms. Wealth management in Singapore is vibrant, growing, challenging.

Banking Sector Reform In Ethiopia, Admassu Bezabeh, Asayehgn Desta

Collected Faculty Scholarship

The fragile and inefficient state-dominated banking sector that existed in Ethiopia during the military government (1974-1991) was a major hindrance to economic growth. Since it took power in 1991, the current government has implemented a number of reforms. For instance, in 1994, the government legalized domestic private investment in the banking industry. In addition, it restructured the two development banks as commercial banks, and introduced a new Banking and Monetary Proclamation that gave more autonomy and further clarified the National Bank of Ethiopia’s activities as the regulator and supervisor of the banking sector. Although these measures have led to marginal …

Improving Money's Worth Ratio Calculations: The Case Of Singapore's Pension Annuities, Joelle H. Y. Fong, Jean Lemaire, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article contributes to a better understanding of the risks involved in a life annuity investment. We examine the distribution of weighted annuity benefits and assess various measures of dispersion such as the coefficient of variance. In particular, we quantify the standard deviation about the expected value, thereby extending the usefulness of the popular money’s worth framework for annuity valuation. The effort toward a more detailed and more accurate risk picture of investing in annuities enables retirees to differentiate among products that may appear seemingly uniform in terms of money’s worth, but vary widely in terms of their risk attributes.

Monetary Regime Choice In Singapore: Would A Taylor Rule Outperform Exchange-Rate Management?, Hwee Kwan Chow, G. C. Lim, Paul D. Mcnelis

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper adopts a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium-vector autorgressive (DSGE-VAR) approach to examine the managed exchange-rate system at work in Singapore. We examine if the country has any reason to fear floating the exchange rate and adopting a Taylor rule. Our results show that, in terms of overall inflation volatility, the exchange rate rule has a comparative advantage over the Taylor rule when export price shocks are the major sources of real volatility, while a Taylor rule dominates when domestic productivity shocks drive real volatility. The exchange-rate rule also dominates the Taylor rule for reducing inflation persistence.

Food Imports Under Foreign Exchange Constraints In The Cfa’S Franc Zone Of Sub-Saharan Africa (Ssa), Seydina Ousmane Sene

Theses and Dissertations--Agricultural Economics

To respond to the high imported food prices in their domestic markets, net food importing countries in the Communauté Financière Africaine (CFA) zone^[1] are adjusting their import tariffs and homologate domestic prices of imported commodities such as rice, wheat, maize, and sugar. This research uses a multivariate specification of error correction model (VECM) of estimation to investigate the link between food imports, world price index of rice, wheat, maize and sugar, real effective exchange rates, domestic food production, GDP, and trade openness in the short and long run. The data are on each homogenous commodity from 1969 to 2012. …

Economic Empowerment Through Income Generating Activities And Social Mobilization: The Case Of Married Amhara Women Of Wadla Woreda, North Wollo Zone, Ethiopia, Belete Deribie Woldegies

Antioch University Dissertations & Theses

Wadla Woreda is located in North Wollo Zone, Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia. The woreda is predominantly agrarian and the population produces mainly subsistence food crops with small amounts of cash crops. Access to basic social and economic services such as health, education, and employment for rural communities is limited due to poor development of rural infrastructure. Wadla is one of the food insecure woredas in the region. As a result some of the people are internally displaced and a portion of the population is included in safety-net programs. The Wadla Woreda is prone to famine due to severe droughts, soil …

Is The Renminbi East Asia’S Dominant Reference Currency? A Reconsideration, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

Recent empirical studies show that the Chinese currency renminbi is either becoming or has become a dominant reference currency in East Asia. This paper reviews the evidence with daily exchange rate data from seven East Asian economies namely, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Taiwan. We consider the likely problems and pitfalls associated with the application of Frankel-Wei regressions to determine the weights of the US dollar and the renminbi in the implicit currency baskets. We show empirically the estimation of currency weights using non-orthogonalised renminbi movements could suffer from imprecision and/or inconsistency. To circumvent the simultaneity bias …

The Euro Area Crisis: Origins, Prospects And Implication For The World Economy And Global Governance, Domenico Lombardi

Brookings Scholar Lecture Series

European nations have adopted a common currency and created regional institutions but they are also undergoing the greatest crisis in the integration since the end of World War II. This presentation will explore Europe’s regional integration, assess this process in light of the current crisis, and consider lessons to be learned for other regions, notably Asia.

Impact Of Sovereign Debt Restructuring On Financial Flows: The Case Of Indonesia, Hwee Kwan Chow, C. Adams

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.

Can A Financial Conditions Index Guide Monetary Policy? The Case Of Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this study, we explore the issue of whether a financial conditions index can serve as a useful guide to monetary policy in the context of Singapore. To this end, we construct an index that comprises not only the usual monetary variables like interest rates, exchange rates and credit expansions but also asset prices such as stock prices and house prices. The choice of these constituent series is motivated by the role they play in the monetary transmission mechanism with consideration given to the key role leverage plays in modern business cycles and the risk-taking channel magnified by the prolonged …

Monetary Regime Choice In Singapore: Would A Tayor Rule Outperform Exchange-Rate Management?, Hwee Kwan Chow, G.C. Lim, P. Mcnelis

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper adopts a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium-vector autorgressive (DSGE-VAR) approach to examine the managed exchange-rate system at work in Singapore. We examine if the country has any reason to fear floating the exchange rate and adopting a Taylor rule. Our results show that, in terms of overall inflation volatility, the exchange rate rule has a comparative advantage over the Taylor rule when export price shocks are the major sources of real volatility, while a Taylor rule dominates when domestic productivity shocks drive real volatility. The exchange-rate rule also dominates the Taylor rule for reducing inflation persistence.

Can Us Economic Variables Predict Chinese Stock Market?, Jeremy Goh, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu, Yuchen Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In the last few decades, we observed a significant increase in global economic activities and these activities may have an impact on both China's economy and stock market. Given the potential impact, we empirically examine whether US economic variables are leading indicators of the Chinese stock market. Prior to China joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) in the end of 2001, we find no statistical relationship between US economic variables and the Chinese stock market returns. However, we find US economic variables have statistically significant predictive power for periods after China's admission into the WTO. In addition, we show that …

Detecting Bubbles In Hong Kong Residential Property Market, Matthew S. Yiu, Jun Yu, Lu Jin

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study uses a newly developed bubble detection method (Phillips, Shi and Yu, 2011) to identify real estate bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market. Our empirical results reveal several positive bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market, including one in 1995, a stronger one in 1997, another one in 2004, and a more recent one in 2008. In addition, the method identifies two negative bubbles in the data, one in 2000 and the other one in 2001. These empirical results continue to be valid for the mass segment and the luxury segment. However, the method finds a …

Imf: Predatory Lender Or Latin America’S Best Chance?, Paul Thomas Smith

Political Science Theses and Capstones

Recently, there has been heated debate as to whether or not assistance from the International Monetary Fund has proven to be a great humanitarian effort or a scheme by Western governments to keep emerging Latin American countries in debt. The IMF partners with numerous governments in order to create a collective monetary community from which all may benefit in times of need. These partnered countries are also able to apply for assistance if they find themselves in monetary hardships. Some studies have shown that the IMF has been too heavy handed, while other studies have shown that recipient governments may …

An Institutional Perspective And The Role Of The State For Chinese Ofdi, Bing Ren, Hao Liang, Ying Zheng

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Napoleon called China a ‘sleeping dragon’, but recent economic developments as China enters the twenty-first century show that the dragon is awakening. China has maintained strong economic growth since 1979 and sustained a GDP increase of more than 9 percent over the years. The total volume of economic output increased from 2.8 percent in 1970 to 7.23 percent in 2008, ranking China as the third largest economy in the world (United Nation Statistics Division Statistical Databases). China launched its ‘Go Global’ policy in 1999 to encourage highperforming Chinese firms to invest abroad and upgrade their global competence. Since then, outward …

Solidarity Economy And Alternative Currency In Latin America = 中美洲互助經濟與另類貨幣, Maria Eugenia Santana

South South Forum 南南論壇

From the very beginning of the millennium the call of the World Social Forum has gathered each year thousands of social organizations and movements of all kinds imaginable under the motto “Another world is possible!”. This way tens of thousands civil organizations gather in search of alternatives to the current world, to the current system, to the current way of life.

This need of Another World –better yet: of Other Worlds- is the certainty of the depletion of the hegemonic neoliberal system: if more than half of the world population is suffering of hunger and sickness this is due to …

From Boom To Doom To Boom: Offshore Financial Centres And Development In Small States, Richard Woodward

Articles

During the 1990s tax havens and offshore financial centres (OFCs) were subject to a string of initiatives designed to raise their tax and regulatory regimes to accepted international standards. Many commentators forecast that this would lead to the demise of OFCs, a worry for the many small states whose economic well being depended heavily on the provision of offshore financial services. Despite this regulatory onslaught many small state OFCs have prospered in the new millennium. This paper seeks to explain this apparent paradox by arguing that (1) international initiatives were riddled with loopholes and exceptions that have been gleefully seized …

Analysis Of Singapore's Foreign Exchange Market Microstructure, Chee Wai Wan

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This paper analyses the Singapore foreign exchange market from a microstructure approach. Specifically, by applying and modifying the empirical methodology designed by Bollerslev and Melvin (1994), we examine the relationship between bid-ask spreads and the underlying volatility of the USD/SGD. Our data set comprises high-frequency USD/SGD tick data of three separate years (April-June 1989, April-May 2006, April-May 2009). We found that for the USD/SGD: i) the size of bid-ask spreads are positively related to the underlying exchange rate volatility; ii) the magnitude of the dependence on underlying volatility increases as tick volume increases; and iii) the size of the bid-ask …

Monetary Policy In Singapore And The Global Financial Crisis, Hwee Kwan Chow, Peter Wilson

Research Collection School Of Economics

Prior to the crisis the consensus amongst central bankers in advanced economies was that price stability, in the form of low and stable price inflation, was a top priority for monetary policy and could best be achieved by targeting interest rates (usually overnight) or monetary aggregates, such as Narrow Money (M1) and Broad Money (M2). Liquidity in the banking system could be flexibly adjusted on a daily basis through open market operations to increase or decrease the monetary base which would be transmitted to the rest of the economy through financial intermediation. Financial markets would then adjust longer-term interest rates …

Impact Of Remittances On Schooling In The Philippines: Does The Relationship To The Household Head Matter?, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

The remittance have emerged as one of the most important sources of international flows. In the Philippines, the amount of remittance receipts has more than doubled over a decade since early 1990s. As a result, the way remittances are used has become extremely important for economic development. Unlike the previous studies, we allow for the potential heterogeneity in the impact of remittances across various relationships to the head of household and take into account the potential negative effects of being guarded by someone other than the parents. We find that the impact of remittances on schooling is generally positive and …

Need Singapore Fear Floating? A Dsge-Var Approach, Hwee Kwan Chow, Paul D. Mcnelis

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper uses a DSGE-VAR model to examine the managed exchange-rate system at work in Singapore and asks if the country has any reason to fear floating the exchange rate with a Taylor rule inflation-targeting mechanism that uses the short term interest rate instead of the exchange rate as the benchmark monetary policy instrument. Our simulation results show that the use of a more flexible exchange rate system will reduce volatility in inflation and investment but consumption volatility will increase. Overall, there are neither signi…cant welfare gains or losses in the regime shift. Given the highly open and trade …

Growth And Regional Integration: The Case Of The Southern African Development Community, Chris Mupimpila, Patricia Funjika

Zambia Social Science Journal

The neoclassical growth model is augmented with structural variables to analyse the determinants of economic growth in the Southern African Development Community. The results show that physical capital, exports, infrastructure, and human capital have a positive and significant effect on economic growth. However, inflation and external debt service have a negative but significant impact on economic growth in the region. In addition, the results suggest that the underdevelopment of the financial sector is a source of heterogeneity among member countries. Therefore, to promote growth and deeper integration in the region, it is necessary to address the underlying causes of inflation, …

A Clashing Viewpoint Concerning India: A Critique Of Goldman Sachs 2007 Report, Ashok K. Roy, Aniruddha Bagchi

Journal of Global Initiatives: Policy, Pedagogy, Perspective

The centerpiece of the 2007 Report by Goldman Sachs is the prediction of India's phenomenal economic growth and power in the next few decades. In this article we critique the conceptual validity of that prognosis. In particular, we highlight several hard and soft infrastructure impediments to India's emergence as a major economic power.

Africa's Debt Crisis: Perspectives On Nigeria's Escape From External Debt Trap, Solomon O. Akinboye

Journal of Global Initiatives: Policy, Pedagogy, Perspective

In sharp contrast with the image of an "oil-rich" country, Nigeria is paradoxically a heavily indebted poor country. While the country's oil production reached 2.5 million barrels per day in 2004, its total external debt stock at the end of 2004 was estimated at $35.9 billion. The debt crisis has been aggravated by the burden of debt servicing, which has absorbed the nation's budgetary and foreign exchange resources with deleterious impact on the critical sectors of the economy. The paper critically examines Nigeria's external debt profile and efforts toward its alleviation. It argues that the debt burden constitutes a major …

Monetary Policy Cooperation To Support Asian Economic Integration, Hwee Kwan Chow, Peter Nicholas Kriz, Roberto S. Mariano, Augustine H. H. Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper considers the form of monetary policy coordination and regional exchange rate arrangement that would best support economic and financial integration in East Asia. In view of the region's economic diversity, we propose a graduated program of informal policy cooperation from weak forms of cooperation to more intensive modes of cooperation such as the adoption of common monetary policy objectives. An array of informal monetary arrangements rooted to the degree of institutional development can improve the effectiveness of both sovereign and regional institutions, and promote integration in East Asia. Drawing upon the European experience with the Exchange Rate Mechanism …