Finance Commons^™

Forecasting Volatility In The New Zealand Stock Market, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study evaluates the performance of nine alternative models for predicting stock price volatility using daily New Zealand data. The competing models contain both simple models such as the random walk and smoothing models and complex models such as ARCH-type models and a stochastic volatility model. Four different measures are used to evaluate the forecasting accuracy. The main results are the following: (1) the stochastic volatility model provides the best performance among all the candidates; (2) ARCH-type models can perform well or badly depending on the form chosen: the performance of the GARCH(3,2) model, the best model within the ARCH …

Gaussian Estimation Of Continuous Time Models Of The Short Term Interest Rate, Jun Yu, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a Gaussian estimator for nonlinear continuous time models of the short term interest rate. The approach is based on a stopping time argument that produces a normalizing transformation facilitating the use of a Gaussian likelihood. A Monte Carlo study shows that the finite sample performance of the proposed procedure offers an improvement over the discrete approximation method proposed by Nowman (1997). An empirical application to U.S. and British interest rates is given.

Bugs For A Bayesian Analysis Of Stochastic Volatility Models, Renate Meyer, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper reviews the general Bayesian approach to parameter estimation in stochastic volatility models with posterior computations performed by Gibbs sampling. The main purpose is to illustrate the ease with which the Bayesian stochastic volatility model can now be studied routinely via BUGS (Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling), a recently developed, user-friendly, and freely available software package. It is an ideal software tool for the exploratory phase of model building as any modifications of a model including changes of priors and sampling error distributions are readily realized with only minor changes of the code. However, due to the single move …

The Applicability Of The Dividend-Yield Investment Strategy At The Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange, Allan, Kim Hon. Ngam

Student Works (2000-2009)

Many theories, techniques and strategies have been developed over the years on how to outperform the stock market. The objective of this research is to apply the "Dividend-Yield" strategy on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange ("KLSE") to ascertain whether using such a strategy would provide superior investment return. Research findings using this strategy on the New York Stock Exchange ("NYSE") have shown favourable results. The data used in this research were sourced primarily from the KLSE, covering a period of 10 years from 1988 to 1997. This research is based on the premise that the investment universe comprises the component …

Multivariate Density Forecast Evaluation And Calibration In Financial Risk Management: High-Frequency Returns On Foreign Exchange, Francis X. Diebold, Jinyong Hahn, Anthony S. Tay

Research Collection School Of Economics

We provide a framework for evaluating and improving multivariate density forecasts. Among other things, the multivariate framework lets us evaluate the adequacy of density forecasts involving cross-variable interactions, such as time-varying conditional correlations. We also provide conditions under which a technique of density forecast calibration can be used to improve deficient density forecasts, and we show how the calibration method can be used to generate good density forecasts from econometric models, even when the conditional density is unknown. Finally, motivated by recent advances in financial risk management, we provide a detailed application to multivariate high-frequency exchange rate density forecasts. © …

Evaluating Density Forecasts With Applications To Financial Risk Management, Francis X. Diebold, Todd A. Gunther, Anthony S. Tay

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose methods for evaluating density forecasts. We focus primarily on methods that are applicable regardless of the particular user’s loss function. We illustrate the methods with a detailed simulation example, and then we present an application to density forecasting of daily stock market returns. We discuss extensions for improving suboptimal density forecasts, multi-step-ahead density forecast evaluation, multivariate density forecast evaluation, monitoring for structural change and its relationship to density forecasting, and density forecast evaluation with known loss function.

An Examination Of The Relationship Between Stock Index Cash And Futures Markets: A Cointegration Approach, Michael A. Pizzi, Andrew J. Economopoulos, Heather M. O'Neill

Business and Economics Faculty Publications

The existence of price discovery, market efficiency and market stability associated with spot and futures markets continues as a prominent discussion among academics, practitioners and regulators. Numerous papers examine the role of price discovery in the futures markets for various types of commodities and financial assets. Generally, the studies by Garbade and Silber (1983), Herbst, McCormack and West (1987), Kawaller, Koch and Koch (1987) and Schroeder and Goodwin (1991) indicate that price discovery occurs more significantly in the futures market compared to the cash market.

The Conditional Heteroscedasticity Of The Yen-Dollar Exchange Rates, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper examines the conditional heteroscedasticity of the yen-dollar exchange rate. A model is constructed by extending the asymmetric power autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model to a process that is fractionally integrated. It is found that, unlike the equity markets, the appreciation and depreciation shocks of the yen against the dollar have similar effects on future volatilities. Although the results reject both the stable and the integrated models, our analysis of the response coefficients of the past shocks and the application of the models to the estimation of the capital requirements for trading the currencies show that there are no substantial …

Term Structure Of Interest Rates In The Singapore Asian Dollar Market, Tom K. Y. Lee, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper investigates empirically the term structure of interest rates in the Singapore Asian Dollar Market. We consider extended versions of the ARCH-M model of Engle, Lilien, and Robins (1987). The extended models permit autocorrelation, skewness and leptokurtosis in the residuals. The robustness of the empirical tests with respect to alternative specifications of the ARCH process is examined. It turns out that there is significant time-varying term premium, and this conclusion is independent of the hypothesized ARCH model.

An Econometric Analysis Of The Determinants Of Investments By Insurance Companies In Nigeria, S. E. Omoruyi

Economic and Financial Review

The paper is divided into two parts. Part I discusses the concept of financial intermediation. Part II outlines the model of determinants of investments by the insurance industry and summarises the main findings and policy recommendations of the study.

Inflation And Taxable Capacity: Some Recent Evidence, Barbara Allison Haney-Powell

Masters Theses

Colin Clark's theory of inflation has had a profound effect on present-day economic theory concerning taxation policy. While his belief that inflation occurred when all tax revenues exceeded 25 percent of national income was rejected by his contemporaries in the 1940's, supply-side economists incorporate Clark's theory into their proposals for curing the unemployment and inflation of the 1970's and 1980's. These proposals gained popular support and resulted in the election of President Ronald Reagan who implemented such proposals. The purpose of this study is to determine the veracity of Clark's theory.

Clark's theory was tested in this study with the …

Long-Run Debt-Income Model Of Consumer Installment Credit, Tseng Ho Wong

Masters Theses

In the late forties and early fifties concern emerged in some economic circles because installment debt was growing more rapidly than income. Overextensions of debt in the long run were believed to jeopardize future prosperity of the economy. To demonstrate that the rate of growth of debt would not threaten future prosperity, A. Enthoven designed a debt-income growth model. Michael K. Evans reaffirmed Enthoven's conclusions in a later study. However, in 1964 and 1967, the model and its assumptions were attacked by Oliver and Chiu and Brosky, respectively.

This study tests again Enthoven's model and its assumptions using up-to-date data. …