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Articles 61 - 90 of 109
Full-Text Articles in Finance
Monetary Regime Choice In Singapore: Would A Tayor Rule Outperform Exchange-Rate Management?, Hwee Kwan Chow, G.C. Lim, P. Mcnelis
Monetary Regime Choice In Singapore: Would A Tayor Rule Outperform Exchange-Rate Management?, Hwee Kwan Chow, G.C. Lim, P. Mcnelis
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper adopts a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium-vector autorgressive (DSGE-VAR) approach to examine the managed exchange-rate system at work in Singapore. We examine if the country has any reason to fear floating the exchange rate and adopting a Taylor rule. Our results show that, in terms of overall inflation volatility, the exchange rate rule has a comparative advantage over the Taylor rule when export price shocks are the major sources of real volatility, while a Taylor rule dominates when domestic productivity shocks drive real volatility. The exchange-rate rule also dominates the Taylor rule for reducing inflation persistence.
Can Us Economic Variables Predict Chinese Stock Market?, Jeremy Goh, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu, Yuchen Wang
Can Us Economic Variables Predict Chinese Stock Market?, Jeremy Goh, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu, Yuchen Wang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In the last few decades, we observed a significant increase in global economic activities and these activities may have an impact on both China's economy and stock market. Given the potential impact, we empirically examine whether US economic variables are leading indicators of the Chinese stock market. Prior to China joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) in the end of 2001, we find no statistical relationship between US economic variables and the Chinese stock market returns. However, we find US economic variables have statistically significant predictive power for periods after China's admission into the WTO. In addition, we show that …
Detecting Bubbles In Hong Kong Residential Property Market, Matthew S. Yiu, Jun Yu, Lu Jin
Detecting Bubbles In Hong Kong Residential Property Market, Matthew S. Yiu, Jun Yu, Lu Jin
Research Collection School Of Economics
This study uses a newly developed bubble detection method (Phillips, Shi and Yu, 2011) to identify real estate bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market. Our empirical results reveal several positive bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market, including one in 1995, a stronger one in 1997, another one in 2004, and a more recent one in 2008. In addition, the method identifies two negative bubbles in the data, one in 2000 and the other one in 2001. These empirical results continue to be valid for the mass segment and the luxury segment. However, the method finds a …
An Institutional Perspective And The Role Of The State For Chinese Ofdi, Bing Ren, Hao Liang, Ying Zheng
An Institutional Perspective And The Role Of The State For Chinese Ofdi, Bing Ren, Hao Liang, Ying Zheng
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Napoleon called China a ‘sleeping dragon’, but recent economic developments as China enters the twenty-first century show that the dragon is awakening. China has maintained strong economic growth since 1979 and sustained a GDP increase of more than 9 percent over the years. The total volume of economic output increased from 2.8 percent in 1970 to 7.23 percent in 2008, ranking China as the third largest economy in the world (United Nation Statistics Division Statistical Databases). China launched its ‘Go Global’ policy in 1999 to encourage highperforming Chinese firms to invest abroad and upgrade their global competence. Since then, outward …
Analysis Of Singapore's Foreign Exchange Market Microstructure, Chee Wai Wan
Analysis Of Singapore's Foreign Exchange Market Microstructure, Chee Wai Wan
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
This paper analyses the Singapore foreign exchange market from a microstructure approach. Specifically, by applying and modifying the empirical methodology designed by Bollerslev and Melvin (1994), we examine the relationship between bid-ask spreads and the underlying volatility of the USD/SGD. Our data set comprises high-frequency USD/SGD tick data of three separate years (April-June 1989, April-May 2006, April-May 2009). We found that for the USD/SGD: i) the size of bid-ask spreads are positively related to the underlying exchange rate volatility; ii) the magnitude of the dependence on underlying volatility increases as tick volume increases; and iii) the size of the bid-ask …
Monetary Policy In Singapore And The Global Financial Crisis, Hwee Kwan Chow, Peter Wilson
Monetary Policy In Singapore And The Global Financial Crisis, Hwee Kwan Chow, Peter Wilson
Research Collection School Of Economics
Prior to the crisis the consensus amongst central bankers in advanced economies was that price stability, in the form of low and stable price inflation, was a top priority for monetary policy and could best be achieved by targeting interest rates (usually overnight) or monetary aggregates, such as Narrow Money (M1) and Broad Money (M2). Liquidity in the banking system could be flexibly adjusted on a daily basis through open market operations to increase or decrease the monetary base which would be transmitted to the rest of the economy through financial intermediation. Financial markets would then adjust longer-term interest rates …
Impact Of Remittances On Schooling In The Philippines: Does The Relationship To The Household Head Matter?, Tomoki Fujii
Impact Of Remittances On Schooling In The Philippines: Does The Relationship To The Household Head Matter?, Tomoki Fujii
Research Collection School Of Economics
The remittance have emerged as one of the most important sources of international flows. In the Philippines, the amount of remittance receipts has more than doubled over a decade since early 1990s. As a result, the way remittances are used has become extremely important for economic development. Unlike the previous studies, we allow for the potential heterogeneity in the impact of remittances across various relationships to the head of household and take into account the potential negative effects of being guarded by someone other than the parents. We find that the impact of remittances on schooling is generally positive and …
Need Singapore Fear Floating? A Dsge-Var Approach, Hwee Kwan Chow, Paul D. Mcnelis
Need Singapore Fear Floating? A Dsge-Var Approach, Hwee Kwan Chow, Paul D. Mcnelis
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper uses a DSGE-VAR model to examine the managed exchange-rate system at work in Singapore and asks if the country has any reason to fear floating the exchange rate with a Taylor rule inflation-targeting mechanism that uses the short term interest rate instead of the exchange rate as the benchmark monetary policy instrument. Our simulation results show that the use of a more flexible exchange rate system will reduce volatility in inflation and investment but consumption volatility will increase. Overall, there are neither signi cant welfare gains or losses in the regime shift. Given the highly open and trade …
A Clashing Viewpoint Concerning India: A Critique Of Goldman Sachs 2007 Report, Ashok K. Roy, Aniruddha Bagchi
A Clashing Viewpoint Concerning India: A Critique Of Goldman Sachs 2007 Report, Ashok K. Roy, Aniruddha Bagchi
Journal of Global Initiatives: Policy, Pedagogy, Perspective
The centerpiece of the 2007 Report by Goldman Sachs is the prediction of India's phenomenal economic growth and power in the next few decades. In this article we critique the conceptual validity of that prognosis. In particular, we highlight several hard and soft infrastructure impediments to India's emergence as a major economic power.
Monetary Policy Cooperation To Support Asian Economic Integration, Hwee Kwan Chow, Peter Nicholas Kriz, Roberto S. Mariano, Augustine H. H. Tan
Monetary Policy Cooperation To Support Asian Economic Integration, Hwee Kwan Chow, Peter Nicholas Kriz, Roberto S. Mariano, Augustine H. H. Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper considers the form of monetary policy coordination and regional exchange rate arrangement that would best support economic and financial integration in East Asia. In view of the region's economic diversity, we propose a graduated program of informal policy cooperation from weak forms of cooperation to more intensive modes of cooperation such as the adoption of common monetary policy objectives. An array of informal monetary arrangements rooted to the degree of institutional development can improve the effectiveness of both sovereign and regional institutions, and promote integration in East Asia. Drawing upon the European experience with the Exchange Rate Mechanism …
China And Brazil: Potential Allies Or Just Brics In The Wall?, Anthony Petros Spanakos
China And Brazil: Potential Allies Or Just Brics In The Wall?, Anthony Petros Spanakos
Department of Political Science and Law Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works
Brazil is an increasingly important actor in global governance and for China specifically. Sino-Brazilian relations have deepened considerably but they remain concentrated in areas of trade and investment. There is also considerable overlap in interests between the two countries in other areas, such as diplomatic and political relations. At the same time, China must manage carefully important differences that exist over the enlargement of the UN and the potential challenge to the Brazilian industry.
Managing Capital Flows: The Case Of Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow
Managing Capital Flows: The Case Of Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow
Research Collection School Of Economics
The resurgence of private capital inflows into Asia in recent years has raised the question of whether the region is susceptible to yet another financial crisis. While a sudden large-scale reversal of capital flows is not likely to result in a liquidity crunch or balance of payments crisis, the attendant sharp corrections in asset prices will have an adverse impact on the economy particularly through indirect channels. We present, in this study, Singapore’s experience in managing the risks posed by capital flows as well as the retention of control over exchange rates and monetary conditions. It is the overall package …
Monetary Policy And Asset Prices In A Small Open Economy: A Factor-Augmented Var Analysis For Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy
Monetary Policy And Asset Prices In A Small Open Economy: A Factor-Augmented Var Analysis For Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy
Research Collection School Of Economics
The ongoing global financial turmoil has revived the question of whether central bankers ought to tighten monetary policy preemptively in order to head off asset price misalignments before a sudden crash triggers financial instability. This study explores the issue of the appropriate monetary policy response to asset price swings in the small open economy of Singapore. Empirical analysis of monetary policy based on standard VAR models, unfortunately, is often hindered by the use of sparse information sets. To better reflect the extensive information monitored by Singapore’s central bank, including global economic indicators, we augment a monetary VAR model with common …
Asian Currency Baskets: An Answer In Search Of A Question?, Charles Adams, Hwee Kwan Chow
Asian Currency Baskets: An Answer In Search Of A Question?, Charles Adams, Hwee Kwan Chow
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper considers how a regional currency basket and the associated divergence indicators could be used in official surveillance. Recently, proponents of Asian currency baskets have referred to the role the ECU played in constructing exchange rate divergence indicators in Europe as evidence of the intrinsic usefulness of currency baskets for exchange rate monitoring. We show in this paper a number of problems with the use of regional currency-basket based divergence indicators. First, at a technical level, such indicators involve tracking regional exchange rates against a moving currency basket and can obscure underlying movements in bilateral exchange rates. Second, currency …
An Empirical Analysis Of Stock Market Integration: Comparison Study Of Singapore And Malaysia, Zheng Yi, Swee Liang Tan
An Empirical Analysis Of Stock Market Integration: Comparison Study Of Singapore And Malaysia, Zheng Yi, Swee Liang Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
Using a GARCH (1,1) model, this paper compares the extent to which financial sector liberalization in Singapore and Malaysia each has led to integration of its domestic equity market with external markets. The results show that the level of integration of the domestic markets with the external markets is higher when MSCI regional and global data are used, as compared to when individual country data are used to proxy regional and global markets. Inferences are made about the preferred pace of liberalization in Singapore, as well as, the impact of the Asian financial crisis and capital control measures imposed in …
Misaligned Incentives And Mortgage Lending In Asia, Richard Green, Roberto S. Mariano, Andrey Pavlov, Susan Wachter
Misaligned Incentives And Mortgage Lending In Asia, Richard Green, Roberto S. Mariano, Andrey Pavlov, Susan Wachter
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper provides a conceptual basis for the price discovery potential for tradable market instruments and specifically the development of mortgage securitization in Asia and the potential dangers of such markets. Nonetheless we argue for the potential importance of securitization in Asia because of its possible role in increasing transparency of the financial sector of Asian economies. We put forth a model explaining how misaligned incentives can lead to bank generated real estate crashes and macroeconomic instability, with or without securitization under certain circumstances. We examine the banking sector’s performance in Asia compared to securitized real estate returns, to provide …
Analyzing And Forecasting Business Cycles In A Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Factor Model For Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy
Analyzing And Forecasting Business Cycles In A Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Factor Model For Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy
Research Collection School Of Economics
A dynamic factor model is applied to a large panel dataset of Singapore’s macroeconomic variables and global economic indicators with the initial objective of analyzing business cycles in a small open economy. The empirical results suggest that four common factors are present in the quarterly time series, which can broadly be interpreted as world, regional, electronics and domestic economic cycles. The estimated factor model explains well the observed fluctuations in real economic activity and price inflation, leading us to use it in forecasting Singapore’s business cycles. We find that the forecasts generated by the factors are generally more accurate than …
Multivariate Garch Models For The Greater China Stock Markets, Xiaojun Song
Multivariate Garch Models For The Greater China Stock Markets, Xiaojun Song
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
This paper reviews the commonly used multivariate GARCH models and uses the daily data of the four Greater China region stock markets, namely Hongkong, Shanghai,Shenzhen, and Singapore, and data of Japan as one ex-ogenous variable to investigate the volatility and shocks spillover behavior and to establish the market linkage among the four markets. We find that the volatility spillover between Shanghai and Shenzhen is obvious and correlation contagion is detected. Conditional variance and conditional correlations are time varying and dynamic which conforms to the arguments in most of the literature. Shanghai and Shenzhen present a very high correlation level during …
Rolling Adf Tests: Detecting Rational Bubbles In Greater China Stock Markets, Peng Huang
Rolling Adf Tests: Detecting Rational Bubbles In Greater China Stock Markets, Peng Huang
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
Following Phillips, Wu and Yu (2007), this paper extends their bubble detecting work to several Greater China stock markets. Two alternative bubble detecting methods, the forward recursive ADF tests raised by Phillips et al. (2007) and the modified version, forward rolling ADF tests, are implemented and compared. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to determine the critical values of the ADF statistic under different sample size. Empirical results demonstrate that only rolling ADF tests are successful in detecting rational bubbles by overcoming the problem of periodically collapsing bubble. As we have expected, bubbles in China Mainland stock market are detected. Out …
Hong Kong's Money: The History, Logic And Operation Of The Currency Peg, Hwee Kwan Chow
Hong Kong's Money: The History, Logic And Operation Of The Currency Peg, Hwee Kwan Chow
Research Collection School Of Economics
No abstract provided.
Financial Liberalization And Monetary Policy Cooperation In East Asia, Hwee Kwan Chow, Peter N. Kriz, Roberto S. Mariano, Augustine H. H. Tan
Financial Liberalization And Monetary Policy Cooperation In East Asia, Hwee Kwan Chow, Peter N. Kriz, Roberto S. Mariano, Augustine H. H. Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
As the countries in East Asia embark on financial liberalization, a key issue that confronts policymakers is the greater complexity of risks that is injected into the financial system. In particular, capital account liberalization may potentially increase the vulnerability of individual countries to external financial shocks. This paper advocates the optimally cascading of financial liberalization that is consistent across three dimensions: extent of domestic financial liberalization; the degree of exchange rate flexibility; and the scope of capital account liberalization. Unless the process of liberalization is properly managed, it could provoke destabilizing capital flows and lead to volatile exchange rates. Smooth …
Global And Regional Sources Of Risk In Equity Markets: Evidence From Factor Models With Time-Varying Conditional Skewness, Aamir R. Hashmi, Anthony S. Tay
Global And Regional Sources Of Risk In Equity Markets: Evidence From Factor Models With Time-Varying Conditional Skewness, Aamir R. Hashmi, Anthony S. Tay
Research Collection School Of Economics
We examine the influence of global and regional factors on the conditional distribution of stock returns from six Asian markets, using factor models in which unexpected returns comprise global, regional and local shocks. The models allow for conditional heteroskedasticity and time-varying conditional skewness, and are used to measure mean, variance, and skewness spillovers. We find that incorporating time-varying conditional skewness improves the fit of our spillover models, and can alter measurements of variance spillovers. However, time-varying conditional skewness is mostly a local phenomenon; with exceptions, there is little spillover in skewness from global and regional factors.
Asian Currency Baskets: A Useful Surveillance Tool?, Charles Adams, Hwee Kwan Chow
Asian Currency Baskets: A Useful Surveillance Tool?, Charles Adams, Hwee Kwan Chow
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper considers whether an intra-regional currency basket and the associated divergence indicators could play a useful role in official exchange rate surveillance. Recently, proponents of an Asian currency basket have referred to the role the European Currency Unit played in constructing exchange rate divergence indicators as evidence of the usefulness of intra-regional currency baskets for exchange rate monitoring. The paper shows that such indicators have a number of features that can lead to them obscuring underlying changes in exchange rates and that the signals they emit will often be difficult to interpret. In addition, the use of regional currency …
Choice Of Currency By East Asia Bond Issuers, David Fernandez, Simon Klassen
Choice Of Currency By East Asia Bond Issuers, David Fernandez, Simon Klassen
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In discussing bond markets in Asia, academics and policymakers typically begin by noting that the Asian crisis of 1997-98 in part resulted from the underdevelopment of the region’s domestic bond markets and the resultant currency and duration mismatches. When assessing the progress made in developing these markets in the post-crisis years, academics and policymakers usually observe that, while several domestic currency government bond markets have moved ahead, corporate bond markets have lagged (Asian Development Bank (2002), Reserve Bank of Australia (2003)). The policy conclusion is therefore often drawn: to prevent another Asian crisis, Asian bond markets must be further developed.
Characterizing Exchange Rate Policy In East Asia: A Reconsideration, Hwee Kwan Chow
Characterizing Exchange Rate Policy In East Asia: A Reconsideration, Hwee Kwan Chow
Research Collection School Of Economics
Frankel and Wei [Frankel, J. A., & Wei, S.-J. (1994). Yen bloc or dollar bloc: Exchange rate policies of the East Asian economies. In I. Takatoshi & A. Krueger (Eds.), Macroeconomic linkages. Chicago: University of Chicago Press] developed and popularized a method for uncovering the implicit weights assigned to major international currencies constituting a currency basket. We extend the methodology in two dimensions: include regional competitive pressure and employ a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to overcome simultaneity bias. With these modifications, we confirm the prominent role of the US dollar in the exchange rate policy of East Asian economies beyond …
Exchange-Rate Systems And Interest-Rate Behaviour: The Experience Of Hong Kong And Singapore, Yiu Kuen Tse, Paul S. L. Yip
Exchange-Rate Systems And Interest-Rate Behaviour: The Experience Of Hong Kong And Singapore, Yiu Kuen Tse, Paul S. L. Yip
Research Collection School Of Economics
The Currency Board System in Hong Kong and the monitoring band system in Singapore are important benchmarks for two different exchange-rate systems. In this paper we consider the implications of the two exchange-rate systems on the interest-rate behaviour of the two economies. We examine the domestic–US interest differentials under the two exchange-rate regimes during the Asian Financial Crisis as well as the pre-and post-crisis periods. Using a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model, we also investigate whether there is any change in the correlation between the domestic and US interest rates due to the Asian Financial Crisis.
Growth Accounting For A Follower-Economy In A World Of Ideas: The Example Of Singapore, Kong Weng Ho, Hian Teck Hoon
Growth Accounting For A Follower-Economy In A World Of Ideas: The Example Of Singapore, Kong Weng Ho, Hian Teck Hoon
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper, we take another approach to accounting for the sources of Singapore’s economic growth by being explicit about the channels through which Singapore, as a technological follower, benefits from international R&D spillovers. Taking into account the channels through which technology developed in the G5 countries diffuses to technological followers, we show that 57.5 percent of Singapore’s real GDP per worker growth rate over the 1970-2002 period is due to multifactor productivity growth. In particular, about 52 percent of the growth is accounted for by an increase in the effectiveness of accessing ideas developed by the technology leaders through …
Competition Policy In Indonesia, Malcolm Dowling
Competition Policy In Indonesia, Malcolm Dowling
Research Collection School Of Economics
The Indonesian economy was dominated by the government in the decades of the 1970s and 1980s through its control of major mining, manufacturing and agricultural activities. Hill (2000) estimates that as much as 40% of non-agricultural GDP was accounted for by government entities in the late 1980s There were still a lot of government corporations up until the late 1980s and early 1990s and governmental control over the banking system was still substantial.
An Empirical Examination Of Ipo Underpricing In The Chinese A-Share Market, Ting Yu, Yiu Kuen Tse
An Empirical Examination Of Ipo Underpricing In The Chinese A-Share Market, Ting Yu, Yiu Kuen Tse
Research Collection School Of Economics
Research in the literature shows that initial public offerings (IPOs) of common stocks are systematically priced at a discount to their subsequent initial trading price. The large underpricing magnitude in the Chinese IPO market has attracted much attention. We consider three hypotheses that may explain the IPO underpricing in China. These are the winner's curse hypothesis, the ex ante uncertainty hypothesis and the signaling hypothesis. Among these hypotheses, the winner's curse hypothesis has not been tested in the Chinese market. Using IPO data for online fixed-price offerings from November 1995 to December 1998, our results show that the winner's curse …
Bank Lending And Real Estate In Asia: Market Optimism And Asset Bubbles, Winston T. H. Koh, Roberto S. Mariano, Andrey Pavlov, Sock-Yong Phang, Augustine H. H. Tan, Susan M. Wachter
Bank Lending And Real Estate In Asia: Market Optimism And Asset Bubbles, Winston T. H. Koh, Roberto S. Mariano, Andrey Pavlov, Sock-Yong Phang, Augustine H. H. Tan, Susan M. Wachter
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper investigates the Asian real estate price run-up and collapse in the 1990s. We identify financial intermediaries’ underpricing of the put option imbedded in non-recourse mortgage loans as a potential cause for the observed price behavior. This underpricing is due to behavioral causes (lender optimism and disaster myopia) and/or rational response of lenders to market incentives (agency conflicts, deposit insurance, or limited liability of bank shareholders). The empirical evidence suggests that underpricing occurred in Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Consequently, these countries experienced a more severe market crash than Hong Kong and Singapore, where underpricing was kept under control by …