Economic Theory Commons^™

Does Bitcoin Use Affect Crime Rates?, Kevin Keane

The Corinthian

Bitcoin is the most widely used cryptocurrency in the world because of its decentralized network that completes user-to-user transactions, eliminating the need for intermediaries. During 2017, the volume of Bitcoin transactions totaled $94.3 trillion. Bitcoin transactions are recorded in a public database called the blockchain. Although the blockchain can keep track of how many transactions there are, it can’t identify the people involved in transactions. The lack of identity increases the anonymity of Bitcoin transactions, making it less detectable when used for crime. Using the Uniform Crime Reporting’s state-level crime rate data and blockchain’s Bitcoin transaction information, I estimate the …

A Letter To The United States Government On Wealth And Income Inequality, Matthieu Maier

English Department: Research for Change - Wicked Problems in Our World

The United States of America is the world’s hotspot when it comes to income and wealth inequality. The wealthiest Americans are accumulating more and more wealth everyday while most Americans, who fall somewhere around middle-class, remain struggling and stagnant. The United States’ unchecked and deregulated system of capitalism is the root cause of our country’s inequities along with our government’s refusal to set aside self-interests and biases in order to combat these issues. From the inequality caused by rouged American systems larger issues are created that lead to complications in health, wages, standard of living, and race relations within our …

Speed Traps: Algorithmic Trader Performance Under Alternative Market Structures, Yan Peng, Jason Shachat, Lijia Wei, S. Sarah Zhang

ESI Working Papers

Using laboratory experiments, we illustrate that trading algorithms that prioritize low latency pose certain pitfalls in a variety of market structures and configurations. In hybrid double auctions markets with human traders and trading agents, we find superior performance of trading agents to human traders in balanced markets with the same number of human and Zero Intelligence Plus (ZIP) buyers and sellers only, thus providing a partial replication of Das et al. (2001). However, in unbalanced markets and extreme market structures, such as monopolies and duopolies, fast ZIP agents fall into a speed trap and both human participants and slow ZIP …

A Theory Of Cultural Revivals, Murat Iyigun, Jared Rubin, Avner Seror

ESI Working Papers

Why do some societies have political institutions that support productively inefficient outcomes? And why does the political power of elites vested in these outcomes often grow over time, even when they are unable to block more efficient modes of production? We propose an explanation centered on the interplay between political and cultural change. We build a model in which cultural values are transmitted inter-generationally. The cultural composition of society, in turn, determines public good provision as well as the future political power of elites from different cultural groups. We characterize the equilibrium of the model and provide sufficient conditions for …

Data For "An Experimental Investigation Of Health Insurance Policy And Behavior", J. Dustin Tracy, Hillard Kaplan, Kevin James, Stephen Rassenti

ESI Data Sets

We introduce a new experimental approach to measuring the effects of health insurance policy alternatives on behavior and health outcomes over the life course. Cash-motivated subjects are placed in a virtual environment where they earn income and allocate it across multi-period lives. We compare behavior across age, income and insurance plans---one priced according to an individual's expected cost and the other uniformly priced through employer-implemented cost sharing. We find that 1) subjects in the employer-implemented plan purchased insurance at higher rates; 2) the employer-based plan reduced differences due to income and age; 3) subjects in the actuarial plan engaged in …

Robust Virtual Implementation With Almost Complete Information, Takashi Kunimoto

Research Collection School Of Economics

Artemov, Kunimoto, and Serrano (2013a,b, henceforth, AKS) study a mechanism design problem where arbitrary restrictions are placed on the set of first-order beliefs of agents. Calling these restrictions Δ, they adopt Δ-rationalizability (Battigalli and Siniscalchi, 2003) and show that Δ-incentive compatibility and Δ-measurability are necessary and sufficient conditions for robust virtual implementation, which implies that virtual implementation is possible uniformly over all type spaces consistent with Δ-restrictions. By appropriately defining Δ in order to restrict attention to complete information environments and thereafter explicitly modelling the assumption of complete information in the language of type spaces, I re-establish the permissive implementation …

The Revealed Preference Theory Of Stable Matchings With One-Sided Preferences, Gaoji Hu, Jiangtao Li, Rui Tang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We investigate the testable implications of the theory of stable matchings in two-sided matching markets with one-sided preferences. Our main result connects the revealed preference analysis to the well-known lattice structure of the set of stable matchings, and tests the rationalizability of a data set by analyzing the joins and meets of matchings.

The Effect Of Sleep On Public Good Contributions And Punishment: Experimental Evidence, Jeremy Clark, David L. Dickinson

ESI Publications

We investigate the effect of a full week of sleep restriction (SR) vs. well-restedness (WR) on contributions in a common public good experiment, the voluntary contributions mechanism (VCM). We examine the effect of sleep manipulation on decisions regarding both contributions and punishment of non-contributors. Actigraphy devices are used to confirm that our random assignment to sleep condition generates significant differences in objective nightly sleep duration and sleepiness. We find that when punishment is unavailable public good contributions do not differ by SR/WR assignment. When punishment is available, we find evidence that SR subjects contribute more than WR subjects, respond more …

Rapidly Declining Body Temperature In A Tropical Human Population, Michael Gurven, Thomas Kraft, Sarah Alami, Juan Copajira Adrian, Edhitt Cortez Linares, Daniel Cummings, Daniel Eid Rodriguez, Paul L. Hooper, Adrian Jaeggi, Raul Quispe Gutierrez, Ivan Maldonado Suarez, Edmond Seabright, Hillard Kaplan, Jonathan Stieglitz, Benjamin C. Trumble

ESI Publications

Normal human body temperature (BT) has long been considered to be 37.0°C. Yet, BTs have declined over the past two centuries in the United States, coinciding with reductions in infection and increasing life expectancy. The generality of and reasons behind this phenomenon have not yet been well studied. Here, we show that Bolivian forager-farmers (n = 17,958 observations of 5481 adults age 15+ years) inhabiting a pathogen-rich environment exhibited higher BT when first examined in the early 21st century (~37.0°C). BT subsequently declined by ~0.05°C/year over 16 years of socioeconomic and epidemiological change to ~36.5°C by 2018. As predicted, …

A Model To Explain Statewide Differences In Covid-19 Death Rates, James L. Doti

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

COVID-19 death rates per 100,000 vary widely across the nation. As of September 1, 2020, they range from a low of 4 in Hawaii to a high of 179 in New Jersey. Although academic research has been conducted at the county and metropolitan levels, no research has rigorously examined or identified the demographic and socioeconomic forces that explain state-level differences. This study presents an empirical model and the results of regression tests that help identify these forces and shed light on the role they play in explaining COVID-19 deaths.

A stepwise regression model we tested exhibits a high degree of …

The Role Of Dispersal And School Attendance On Reproductive Dynamics In Small, Dispersed Populations: Choyeros Of Baja California Sur, Mexico, Shane Macfarlan, Ryan Schacht, Eric Schniter, Juan José Garcia, Diego Guevara Beltran, Jory Lerback

ESI Publications

Individuals from small populations face challenges to initiating reproduction because stochastic demographic processes create local mate scarcity. In response, flexible dispersal patterns that facilitate the movement of individuals across groups have been argued to reduce mate search costs and inbreeding depression. Furthermore, factors that aggregate dispersed peoples, such as rural schools, could lower mate search costs through expansion of mating markets. However, research suggests that dispersal and school attendance are costly to fertility, causing individuals to delay marriage and reproduction. Here, we investigate the role of dispersal and school attendance on marriage and reproductive outcomes using a sample of 54 …

Unparalleled Opportunities Or Unmitigated Risk? Economic Globalization And Its Impact On State Capacity In The Developing World, John M. Zak

Student Publications

Economic globalization is a phenomenon driving major developments in the international system. With the force of this phenomenon shaping events within states and interactions among them, the question of economic globalization’s impact on state capacity is worthy of an in-depth analysis. In this work I use economic globalization as the central explanatory variable and state capacity as the dependent variable and seek to establish an empirical relationship between the two that will offer the social science community a better understanding of how this phenomenon is shaping state capacity in developing countries. Based on available scholarship, I argue that economic globalization …

Human Flourishing And The Subjective Dimension Of Work, Geoffrey Friesen

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

This essay considers the Christian understanding of the subjective dimension of human work and the implications for economics, finance, and the modern firm. The biblical account of people profoundly captures the fullness of human nature and the role of work and economy in developing the full person. People’s reality is both individual and collective, encompassing their subjective interior and objective exterior dimensions of reality. This issue is important because economic models affect economic decisions, and these decisions help shape social reality. Current economic and financial models are problematic because they are self-limiting: They close off certain outcomes by assuming they …

Interim Rationalizable Implementation Of Functions, Takashi Kunimoto, Rene Saran, Roberto Serrano

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper investigates rationalizable implementation of social choice functions (SCFs) in incomplete information environments. We identify weak interim rationalizable monotonicity (weak IRM) as a novel condition and show that weak IRM is a necessary and almost sufficient condition for rationalizable implementation. We show by means of an example that interim rationalizable monotonicity (IRM), found in the literature, is strictly stronger than weak IRM as its name suggests, and that IRM is not necessary for rationalizable implementation, as had been previously claimed. The same example also demonstrates that Bayesian monotonicity, the key condition for full Bayesian implementation, is not necessary for …

A Taxonomy Of Non-Dictatorial Domains, Shurojit Chatterji, Huaxia Zeng

Research Collection School Of Economics

We provide an exhaustive classification of all preference domains that allow the design of unanimous social choice functions (henceforth, rules) that are non-dictatorial and strategy-proof. This taxonomy is based on a richness assumption and employs a simple property of two-voter rules called invariance. The preference domains that form the classification are semi-single-peaked domains (introduced by Chatterji et al. (2013)) and semi-hybrid domains (introduced here) which are two appropriate weakenings of the single-peaked domains, and which, more importantly, are shown to allow strategy-proof rules to depend on non-peak information of voters’ preferences. As a refinement of the classification, single-peaked domains and …

Consistent Regional Commodity-By-Industry Input-Output Accounts, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi

Regional Research Institute Working Papers

A long-standing regional science problem domain focuses on the identification of structural economic change. One of several approaches relies on the use of historical final demand series and a comparison of observed industry output to an estimate of what output would have been were economic structure static. However, these methods were first developed before the introduction of today’s commonly used commodity-by-industry (CxI)input-output (IO) accounting frameworks, and before the application of these methods to regional economies. Correctly formulating the supporting accounting structures for these analyses is essential, but can be challenging even for experienced an- alysts. Related textbook and journal articles …

An Experimental Investigation Of Health Insurance Policy And Behavior, J. Dustin Tracy, Hillard Kaplan, Kevin A. James, Stephen Rassenti

ESI Working Papers

We introduce a new experimental approach to measuring the effects of health insurance policy alternatives on behavior and health outcomes over the life course. Cash-motivated subjects are placed in a virtual environment where they earn income and allocate it across multi-period lives. We compare behavior across age, income and insurance plans—one priced according to an individual’s expected cost and the other uniformly priced through employer-implemented cost sharing. We find that 1) subjects in the employer-implemented plan purchased insurance at higher rates; 2) the employer-based plan reduced differences due to income and age; 3) subjects in the actuarial plan engaged in …

Adaptive Utility: Observing The Rate Of Adaptation In Happiness As Short Run Shifts Revert To Long Run Averages, Cameron Bellamoroso

Honors Thesis

In economics, human decision-making models are based on the utility, or happiness, a person experiences from the choices they make. Individual happiness is closely tied to societal and global well-being, a common political and and research goal. Psychological studies on happiness show that people generally return to an average level of happiness after experiencing a significant positive or negative change in their life, a process known as the ``hedonic treadmill.'' Empirically, it is often difficult for people to predict the specific utility they will experience from a given choice, leading them to maintain constant preferences for only frequently experienced options. …

An Elementary Humanomics Approach To Boundedly Rational Quadratic Models, Michael J. Campbell, Vernon L. Smith

ESI Working Papers

We take a refreshing new look at boundedly rational quadratic models in economics using some elementary modeling of the principles put forward in the book Humanomics by Vernon L. Smith and Bart J. Wilson. A simple model is introduced built on the fundamental Humanomics principles of gratitude/resentment felt and the corresponding action responses of reward /punishment in the form of higher/lower payoff transfers. There are two timescales: one for strictly self-interested action, as in economic equilibrium, and another governed by feelings of gratitude/resentment. One of three timescale scenarios is investigated: one where gratitude /resentment changes much more slowly than economic …

Introduction To The Special Issue On The Economics Of Religion, Jared Rubin

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

"The economics and political science of religion have blossomed into full-fledged fields in the last decade and a half. What was once a field on the far outskirts of economics and political science now regularly publishes in its top journals (see Figure 1).¹ By 1998, the field was large enough for Iannaccone (1998) to write a survey of the shape of the field. The field was very much at its infancy at that time, and most of the best work was done by sociologists and/or published in sociology journals. This has changed significantly in the 22 years since Iannaccone's …

Intertemporal Choice Experiments And Large-Stakes Behavior, Diego Aycinena, Szabolcs Blazsek, Lucas Rentschler, Charles Sprenger

ESI Working Papers

Intertemporal choice experiments are increasingly implemented to make inference about discounting and marginal utility, yet little is known about the predictive power of resulting measures. This project links standard experimental choices to a decision on the desire to smooth a large-stakes payment | around 10% of annual income | through time. In a sample of around 400 Guatemalan Conditional Cash Transfer recipients, we find that preferences over large-stakes payment plans are closely predicted by experimental measures of patience and diminishing marginal utility. These represent the first findings in the literature on the predictive content of such experimentally elicited measures of …

Friedrich Hayek On Monetary And Banking Systems Reforms, Adrian Ravier

Journal of New Finance

Throughout his life, Friedrich Hayek worked towards prescribing a monetary policy under which the world economy would again enjoy the stability it had known under the classical international gold standard system. This paper presents three banking and monetary systems that were pivotal in the history of banking and closely scrutinized by Hayek. The paper outlines those systems, summarizes Hayek’s comments on each and then discusses the recent literature on the subject in the light of Hayek’s influence.

Evidence For Height And Immune Function Trade-Offs Among Preadolescents In A High Pathogen Population, Angela R. Garcia, Aaron Blackwell, Benjamin C. Trumble, Jonathan Stieglitz, Hillard Kaplan, Michael Gurven

ESI Publications

Background

In an energy-limited environment, caloric investments in one characteristic should trade-off with investments in other characteristics. In high pathogen ecologies, biasing energy allocation towards immune function over growth would be predicted, given strong selective pressures against early-life mortality.

Methodology

In the present study, we use flow cytometry to examine trade-offs between adaptive immune function (T cell subsets, B cells), innate immune function (natural killer cells), adaptive to innate ratio and height-for-age z scores (HAZ) among young children (N = 344; aged 2 months–8 years) in the Bolivian Amazon, using maternal BMI and child weight-for-height z scores (WHZ) as …

Multiplex Network Ties And The Spatial Diffusion Of Radical Innovations: Martin Luther’S Leadership In The Early Reformation, Sascha O. Becker, Yuan Hsiao, Steven Pfaff, Jared Rubin

ESI Publications

This article analyzes Martin Luther’s role in spreading the early Reformation, one of the most important episodes of radical institutional change in the last millennium. We argue that social relations played a key role in its diffusion because the spread of heterodox ideologies and their eventual institutionalization relied not only on private “infection” through exposure to innovation but also on active conversion and promotion of that new faith through personal ties. We conceive of that process as leader-to-follower directional influence originating with Luther and flowing to local elites through personal ties. Based on novel data on Luther’s correspondence, Luther’s visits, …

A Defense And Expansion Of The Theory Of Capitalist Ground Rent: Speculation, Securitization, And Struggles Over Land And Housing, Francesca Manning

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Why are the rents so high? Who is responsible for homelessness, for urban and rural displacement? How can these problems be combatted?

Recent literature addressing these questions has pointed to gentrification and the financialization of land and housing, faulted financialized landlords, hedge funds, and the irredeemable logic of finance, and pointed to the importance of land and housing regulation to prevent displacement.

However, theories of displacement—in both land and housing, on both urban and rural terrain—suffer from a lack of an underlying theory of the logic, tendencies, and limits of ground rent extraction in capitalism.

This dissertation develops a theory …

Order On Types Based On Monotone Comparative Statics, Takashi Kunimoto, Takuro Yamashita

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper introduces a novel concept of orders on types by which the so-called monotone comparative statics is valid in all supermodular games with incomplete information. We fully characterize this order in terms of what we call common optimism, providing a sense in which our order has a sharp epistemic interpretation. We say that type ti′ is higher than type ti in the order of the common optimism if ti′ is more optimistic about state than ti; ti′ is more optimistic that all players are more optimistic about state than ti; and so on, ad infinitum. First, we show that …

Menu-Dependent Food Choices And Food Waste, Hongxing Liu, Joaquín Gómez-Miñambres, Danyi Qi

ESI Working Papers

We use a combination of randomized field experiments and online surveys to test how the menu design affects food choices and food waste. In our field experiment, participants face one of two menus: a narrow menu that only displays a small portion of food, or a broad menu that also contains bigger portions. While all options are equally available in both menus, they differ in how easy and fast the different choices can be made. Our results show that, compared to the broad menu, participants in the narrow menu ordered smaller portions of food. Importantly, food intake was similar across …

A Notion Of Prominence For Games With Natural-Language Labels, Alessandro Sontuoso, Sudeep Bhatia

ESI Working Papers

We study games with natural-language labels (i.e., strategic problems where options are denoted by words), for which we propose and test a measurable characterization of prominence. We assume that – ceteris paribus – players find particularly prominent those strategies that are denoted by words more frequently used in their everyday language. To operationalize this assumption, we suggest that the prominence of a strategy-label is correlated with its frequency of occurrence in large text corpora, such as the Google Books corpus (“n-gram” frequency). In testing for the strategic use of word frequency, we consider experimental games with different incentive structures (such …

A Simple, Ecologically Rational Rule For Settling Found Property Disputes, Bart J. Wilson

ESI Publications

Who has property in a found item X, which is contained in Y? The finder of X or the person who has property in Y? The common law says it depends. It depends upon whether the owner of Y knew about X, or whether X was lost or mislaid, or how small the weight of X is relative to Y (as compared to its value), or whether the finder was an employee of the owner of Y, to name just a few. Wilson (2020) hypothesizes that humans universally cognize property as being contained in a …

Trust And Trustworthiness In Procurement Contracts With Retainage, Matthew J. Walker, Elena Katok, Jason Shachat

ESI Working Papers

In complex procurement projects, it is difficult to write enforceable contracts that condition price upon quality. Supplier non-performance becomes an acute risk, particularly when there is intense competition for the contract. An established incentive mechanism used to mitigate the problem of supplier non-performance is retainage, in which the buyer sets aside a portion of the purchase price. After project completion, the buyer determines the amount of retainage that is released to the seller, considering any defects that arise. While generally a feasible contract form to implement, the practical difficulties in assessing completion introduce a moral hazard for the buyer. We …