Economic Theory Commons^™

Currency Trading Using The Fractal Market Hypothesis, Jonathan Blackledge, Kieran Murphy

Articles

We report on a research and development programme in financial modelling and economic security undertaken in the Information and Communications Security Research Group (ICSRG, 2011) which has led to the launch of a new company - Currency Traders Ireland Limited - funded by Enterprise Ireland. Currency Traders Ireland Limited (CTI, 2011) has a fifty year exclusive license to develop a new set of indicators for analysing currency exchange rates (Forex trading). We consider the background to the approach taken and present examples of the results obtained to date.

Chapter 3, Two Versions, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, Anwar. Handwritten archival overview notes regarding multiple versions of chapter three and macrofoundations of method. Unpublished manuscript.
• Shaikh, Anwar. Microfoundations, emergent properties and nonlinear dynamics. Unpublished work.
• Shaikh, Anwar. Earlier raw draft version of chapter three titled microfoundations, emergent properties and nonlinear dynamics. Unpublished work.

Three Essays On Financial Markets And Monetary Policy, Abeba Siraj Mussa

Dissertations

The global financial crisis triggered by fallout from the sub-prime mortgage market in the U.S. has led economists to focus attention on the role of monetary policy in the crisis. The question of how monetary policy affects the financial sector is the key to the current debate over the role financial stability should play in the monetary policy decisions. As a contribution to this debate, my dissertation examines the link between monetary policy and three main financial sectors - the banking sector, the stock market, and the housing market.

The first essay examines whether the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) …

A New Bayesian Unit Root Test In Stochastic Volatility Models, Yong Li, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new posterior odds analysis is proposed to test for a unit root in volatility dynamics in the context of stochastic volatility models. This analysis extends the Bayesian unit root test of So and Li (1999, Journal of Business Economic Statistics) in two important ways. First, a numerically more stable algorithm is introduced to compute the Bayes factor, taking into account the special structure of the competing models. Owing to its numerical stability, the algorithm overcomes the problem of diverged “size” in the marginal likelihood approach. Second, to improve the “power” of the unit root test, a mixed prior specification …

Simulation-Based Estimation Methods For Financial Time Series Models, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper overviews some recent advances on simulatio n-based methods of estimating time series models and asset pricing models that are widely used in finance. The simulation based methods have proven to be particularly useful when the likelihood function and moments do not have tractable forms and hence the maximum likelihood method (MLE) and the generalized method of moments (GMM) are difficult to use. They can also be useful for improving the finite sample performance of the traditional methods when financial time series are highly persistent and when the quantity of interest is a highly nonlinear function of system parameters.The …

Indescribability And Its Irrelevance For Contractual Incompleteness, Takashi Kunimoto

Research Collection School Of Economics

The incomplete contracts literature often cites indescribable contingencies as a major obstacle to the creation of completecontracts. Using agents’ minimum foresight concerning possible future payoffs, Maskin and Tirole (Rev Econ Stud 66:83–114, 1999) show that indescribability does not matter for contractual incompletenessas long as there is symmetric information at both the contracting stage and the trading stage. This is called the irrelevance theorem. The following generalization of the irrelevance theorem is shown here: indescribability does not matter even in the presenceof asymmetric information at the trading stage, as long as there is symmetric information at the contracting stage. This isan …

Blood Lipids, Infection, And Inflammatory Markers In The Tsimane Of Bolivia, Sarinnapha Vasunilashorn, Eileen M. Crimmins, Jung Ki Kim, Jeff Winking, Michael Gurven, Hillard Kaplan, Caleb Finch

ESI Publications

Objectives—Little is known about blood cholesterol (blood-C) levels under conditions of infection and limited diet. This study examines blood-C and markers of infection and inflammation in the Tsimane of the Bolivian Amazon, indigenous forager farmers living in conditions that model preindustrial European populations by their short life expectancy, high load of infections and inflammation, and limited diets.

Methods—We use multivariate models to determine the relationships between lipid levels and markers of infection and inflammation. Adult Tsimane (N = 418, age 20–84) were characterized for blood lipids, cells, and inflammatory markers in relation to individual loads of parasites and …

Revisiting The Impact Of The Designated Hitter On Major League Baseball, Andrew Cooley

All Theses

In 1973, team owners in Major League Baseball's American League voted in favor of introducing the designated hitter into their offensive lineups. The National League owners voted against such a rule change that year and since on several different occurrences. Baseball fans, sportswriters, players, owners, economists and others have weighed in on the impact of the designated hitter rule change on Major League Baseball. Chapter One of this paper reviews recent published writings by economists on the impact of the designated hitter. Team owners gave several reasons for advocating the dramatic designated rule change in the American League. Chapter Two …

Evaluating The Conditions For Robust Mechanism Design, Takashi Kunimoto, Roberto Serrano

Research Collection School Of Economics

We assess the strength of the different conditions identified in the literature of robustmechanism design. We focus on three conditions: ex post incentive compatibility,robust monotonicity, and robust measurability. Ex post incentive compatibility hasbeen shown to be necessary for any concept of robust implementation, while robustmonotonicity and robust measurability have been shown to be necessary for robust(full) exact and virtual implementation, respectively. This paper shows that whileviolations of ex post incentive compatibility and robust monotonicity do not easily goaway, we identify a mild condition on environments in which robust measurability issatisfied by all social choice functions over a residual set (i.e., …

System Dynamics Implementation Of An Extended Brander And Taylor-Like Easter Island Model, Takuro Uehara, Yoko Nagase, Wayne Wakeland

Complex Systems Faculty Publications and Presentations

We provide a system dynamics implementation of a dynamic ecological economics model. Dynamic economic models are often constrained to use functions, such as the Cobb-Douglas function, chosen “conveniently” to allow for analytic solutions. The C-D function, however, suffers from its fixed elasticity that does not allow for the substitutability between man-made capital and natural capital to change, which is vital for economic sustainability. Using system dynamics removes this constraint and enables more realistic ecological economics models containing functions not amenable to analytic solution. The base model is the natural resource and population growth model developed by Brander and Taylor (1998) …

Innovation, Markets, And Evolution, Mitch Green

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper approaches innovation from an evolutionary perspective. Literature spanning a broad range of traditions in economics is considered, to include Institutionalist, Schumpeterian, post-Keynesian, and growth theorists. Key systemic changes are examined in the context of prevailing technological and social institutions. It is argued that expectation-fixing effects such as path-dependence in investment and innovation provide structure to a social network of market institutions that seek to validate money contracts. The institution of money is considered as a center of power in the system and affects the course of innovation. Money as the unit of account becomes the object of …

Thirlwall's Law And Krugman's 45-Degree Rule: Mathematically Identical, Mutually Exclusive, Karl Garbacik

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

Thirlwall's Law and the 45-degree rule, originally formulated by Krugman, are radically different interpretations of the same statistical regularity. This statistical regularity is that a country's long-run growth rate will approximate to the ratio of that country's export growth to its import elasticity of demand. Thirlwall's Law falls under a Post-Keynesian framework which is primarily a demand-side model. The 45-degree rule relies on a supply-side interpretation, a result of its neoclassical origins. This thesis seeks to answer two questions. The first is, are the members of the Post-Keynesian and neoclassical communities working on each of these theories aware of the …

Financial Illiteracy: Prevalence, Consequences, And Solutions, Gerald Matasy

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

As Americans have become increasingly responsible for their own financial security their ability to make financial decisions in their best interests has certainly grown in importance. The focus of this paper is to determine what role financial literacy plays in making optimal financial decisions and maintaining economic stability. Using mostly research from other studies and some original research, this paper seeks to examine the level of financial literacy among the general population and what the implications are for the general lack of literacy. What I find is that individuals who have lower levels of financial literacy generally make poorer financial …

Factors Affecting Brand Loyalty Among Malaysian Consumers In Their Choice Of Mobile Phone Brands., Bel Lew Lee Peng

Student Works (2010-2019)

Purpose Brand loyalty is a key factor that explains brand choice with which the consumer expresses his/her satisfaction with a brand. It is also one of the key constructs predicting consumer behavior. This study proposes and tests a five-factor model that explains the variations in the choice of mobile phone brands among Malaysian consumers. These factors include brand name, brand design, perceived quality, price and promotion. Design/ Methodology/ Approach A survey questionnaire was used as the research instrument for data collection in this study. The methods of collecting the quantitative survey data included self-administered and e-mailed questionnaires. Data was collected …

Unilateral Measures And Emissions Mitigation, Shurojit Chatterji, Sayantan Ghosal, Sean Walsh, John Whalley

Research Collection School Of Economics

We discuss global climate mitigation that builds on existing unilateral measures to cut emissions. We document and discuss the rationale for such unilateral measures argue that such measures have the potential to generate positive spillover effects both within and across countries. In a simple dynamic model of learning we show that while single countries on their own may never get to the point of switching completely to low emission activities, a learning process with positive spillovers across nations is more likely to deliver a global switch to low emissions. We discuss the key features of a new global Intellectual Property …

How Robust Is Undominated Nash Implementation?, Takashi Kunimoto

Research Collection School Of Economics

Palfrey and Srivastava (1991) show that almost any social choice correspondence(SCC) is implemented in undominated Nash equilibrium, a refinement of Nash equilibrium. By requiring solution concepts to have closed graph in the limit of complete information, Chung and Ely (2003) investigate the robustness of undominated Nash implementation. Their robustness test concludes that when preferences are strict (or more generally, hedonic), only monotonic SCCs can be implemented in the closure of the undominated Nash (equilibrium) correspondence. This paper re-examines this robustness test. I show that almost any SCC is implemented in the closure of the undominated Nash correspondence, provided that the …

Do Ct Scans Help Prevent Cancer-Related Deaths?, Auyon J. Ghosh

Renée Crown University Honors Thesis Projects - All

This paper uses a region-level estimation approach associated with medical procedures to identify the effectiveness of X-ray Computed Axial Tomography (CT) scans as a diagnostic tool in preventing cancer-related deaths. In order to measure the effects of the CT scan on cancer-related deaths, I use data from both the National Health Interview Survey and the Vital Statistics of the United States. For all four regions, we observe an increase in CT scan use after 1979 or, as illustrated specifically in the figure, from 1975 to 1980. All four regions exhibit marked increases in lung cancer-related deaths, very little fluctuation in …

Homo Economicus: Alive And Diversified In The Economic Research Program, Bradley R. Turner

Renée Crown University Honors Thesis Projects - All

This paper seeks to (1) offer a conceptual overview of the methodology of science research programs (MSRP) of Imre Lakatos; (2) apply the framework of that methodology to the neoclassical theory of Gary S. Becker; and (3) explore a quantitative-driven, atheoretical alternative, which challenges the view that there can be or should be any body of theoretical economics. The MSRP framework is used in an instrumental manner in the pursuit of a lucid and interesting historical analysis. The pros and cons of Becker’s approach are presented in the tradition of instrumentalism, and in light of recent discussion of economics imperialism. …

On Domains That Admit Well-Behaved Strategy-Proof Social Choice Functions, Shurojit Chatterji, Remzi Sanver, Arunava Sen

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we investigate domains that admit “well-behaved” strategy-proof social choice functions. We show that if the number of voters is even, then every domain that satisfies a richness condition and admits an anonymous, tops-only, unanimous and strategy-proof social choice function, must be semi-single-peaked. Conversely every semi-single-peaked domain admits an anonymous, tops-only, unanimous and strategy-proof social choice function. Semi-single-peaked domains are generalizations of single-peaked domains on a tree introduced by Demange (1982

Reclaiming Prosperity: Repositioning Southern Nevada For The Next Economy, Bruce Katz

Brookings Scholar Lecture Series

The outlines of the next American economy are coming into focus, yet the future remains uncertain in Southern Nevada as America's newest metropolis labors through a major recession. It is time therefore to get back on track and begin laying the foundation for a new and more durable kind of growth in metropolitan Las Vegas and across the Intermountain West. To help with that, urban visionary Bruce Katz advanced a powerful depiction of the next American economy in a major UNLV lecture and articulated a bold agenda for helping Las Vegas reclaim prosperity in the new era.

Economic Thinking And Risk Attitudes: An Empirical Study, Peter Slepcevic-Zach, Ph.D., Thomas Koeppel

International Journal for Business Education

In the light of the current economic crisis, which had its roots in high risk dealings in the international financial markets, the question how economically minded students are and what propensity towards risk they have, are essential to improving their financial literacy. In a broad survey including economic and non-economic schools 649 students aged 14 and 18 were questioned. In this paper results are presented and implications for classroom teaching and curricular development are derived.

Determinants Of Housing Prices In Pittsylvania County, Jason Hall

Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects

The purpose of this research is to determine the implicit factors influencing housing prices in Pittsylvania County, a rural county in Southside Virginia. Currently in Pittsylvania County there is a debate over whether or not to mine what is believed to be the largest deposit of uranium in the United States, containing approximately 119 million pounds of uranium ore at an estimated value of $7 billion to $10 billion. The Virginia Coal and Energy Commission issued its final approval for the National Academy of Sciences to study the debate from a socio-economic standpoint. The $1.2 million study is currently taking …

The Social Strategy Game: Resource Competition Within Female Social Networks Among Small-Scale Forager-Horticulturalists, Stacey L. Rukas, Michael Gurven, Hillard Kaplan, Jeffrey Winking

ESI Publications

This paper examines social determinants of resource competition among Tsimane Amerindian women of Bolivia. We introduce a semi-anonymous experiment (the Social Strategy Game) designed to simulate resource competition among women. Information concerning dyadic social relationships and demographic data were collected to identify variables influencing resource competition intensity, as measured by the number of beads one woman took from another. Relationship variables are used to test how the affiliative or competitive aspects of dyads affect the extent of prosociality in the game. Using a mixed-modeling procedure, we find that women compete with those with whom they are quarreling over accusations of …

Countervailing Power In Wholesale Pharmaceuticals, Sara F. Ellison, Christopher M. Snyder

Dartmouth Scholarship

Using data on wholesale prices for antibiotics sold to U.S. drugstores, we test the growing theoretical literature on ‘countervailing power’ (a term for the ability of large buyers to extract discounts from suppliers). Large drugstores receive a modest discount for antibiotics produced by competing suppliers but no discount for antibiotics produced by monopolists. These findings support theories suggesting that supplier competition is a prerequisite for countervailing power. As further evidence for the importance of supplier competition, we find that hospitals receive substantial discounts relative to drugstores, attributed to hospitals' greater ability to induce supplier competition through restrictive formularies.

Monopoly, Regulation, And Innovation, Matt Bogard

Economics Faculty Publications

Recently the Justice department has started investigations into alleged anti-trust violations by Monsanto. This has helped fuel a lot of already hyped discontent with one of the world’s leaders in innovative solutions for sustainable agriculture. This article discusses how the regulatory environment could possibly have contributed to more concentration and power in the biotech industry. Increasing regulation would likely have the opposite effect of creating a level playing field in the agriculture industry. From AgWeb, March 27,2010 http://www.agweb.com/blog/Economic_Sense_190/Monopoly_Regulation__and_Innovation_10771/

The Gettysburg Economic Review, Volume 4, Spring 2010

Gettysburg Economic Review

No abstract provided.

An Examination Of Non-Linear Relationships Between Intellectual Property Rights Protection And Growth, Brian R. Lemak

Gettysburg Economic Review

This paper examines the possibility of a non-linear relationship existing between intellectual property rights protection (IPR) and gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates. A theoretical justification is developed for the potential existence of a non-linear relationship in terms of a quadratic relationship. This is then examined using panel data from 191 countries and taken in 5 year intervals, although the data had many missing observations. Results indicate there is statistically significant evidence that a quadratic relationship exists between IPR and GDP growth, however there are reservations about this evidence due to a dearth of observations in countries with very weak …

Did I Do That? Group Positioning And Asymmetry In Attributional Bias, Brian Gunia, Brice Corgnet

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

A laboratory experiment examined whether one structural feature of groups—members’ physical positioning—may produce asymmetry in their perceived contribution to a task. In particular, we investigated asymmetry in group members’ (often excessive) claims of credit for collective tasks ("the self-serving attributional bias"). Consistent with the availability account of this bias, group members located in the middle of a group, with easy visual access to their partners’ contributions, demonstrated less bias than outside members (who demonstrated bias consistent with prior research)—but no less satisfaction. Further analyses suggested that these results reflected bias reduction among middle members and did stem from visual availability. …

Team Formation And Self‐Serving Biases, Brice Corgnet

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

There is extensive evidence which indicates that people learn positively about themselves. We build on this finding to develop a model of team formation. We show that under complete information learning positively about oneself prevents efficient team formation. Agents becoming overconfident tend to ask for an excessive share of the group outcome. Positive learning generates divergence in workers' beliefs and hampers efficient team formation. Interestingly, in a context of incomplete information regarding the partner's ability, extensive learning biases may reduce the divergence in agents' beliefs and facilitate efficient team formation as a result. We apply our model to coauthorship and …

Product Innovation And Stability Of Collusion, Sougata Poddar, Bibhas Saha

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

We study the nature of market competition in relation to stability of collusion in the infinitely repeated play of a twostage game of product innovation and market competition, and show that cooperation in giving R&D efforts is more easily sustained when firms compete in quantity than in price.