Economic History Commons^™

The History And Development Of British Tramways And The Impacts That It Had, Noam Schuldenrein

Honors College Theses

The thesis is about the general history of the British tramways and how they developed throughout England in the nineteenth century. It includes their general development; how it affected England economically; how it affected England demographically; and how it affected the surrounding neighborhoods in England.

The Real Estate And Stock Market During The Great Depression: Construction Permit Growth As A Leading Economic Indicator For Stock Returns, Will Cresap

CMC Senior Theses

The 1929 stock market crash on Black Thursday, followed by the subsequent four-year period of extreme economic downturn, signifies an extremely profound piece of U.S. history. During this time, global economic productivity – measured by GDP – decreased while the U.S. unemployment rate increased staggeringly. Leveraging construction permits as a forward-looking measure of economic activity, I empirically evaluate the effect of construction permits – specifically, the lagged growth rate of monthly construction permits – and lagged monthly stock returns on monthly Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock returns. Lagged construction permit returns and lagged stock returns provide early indications …

Patterns Of Enslavement And Economic Oppression Of Central Virginia, Hannah Bedwell

Undergraduate Research Posters

I address how anthropologists can identify the patterns and development of slavery and economic oppression through archaeology and the visualization of Virginia enslavement. I focus on the enslaved people of James Madison's Montpelier. I use 3D modeling as a foundation for integrating enhanced visuals with the goal of presenting a tangible understanding of the enslaved individuals in relation to the artifacts and history of the archaeological sites. I intend to show a common theme in economic oppression by comparing modern themes in slavery and examining Fraser D. Neiman's synthesis of the evolutionary perspective of slavery, and how little has changed …

What Goes Up Must Come Down: The Relationship Between The Housing Market Boom And The Subsequent Economic Downturn: Evidence From The Msa Level, Bruce Dale Service

CMC Senior Theses

Using MSA level data, the paper shows, that geographic areas which experienced the largest housing bubble generally suffered a more serious subsequent economic downturn. More specifically, the paper establishes that MSAs with larger declines in housing permits had larger increases in unemployment. There also appears to be strong evidence of a correlation between the magnitude of a housing boom and the timing of the decline in housing permits. MSAs which experienced larger real housing inflation offered early indications of the subsequent Great Recession.

The End Of The Three Percent Rule: How Structural Changes In The U.S. Economy Have Impacted Economic Growth, Maxwell J. Urman

CMC Senior Theses

Using data from government sources (FRED, BEA, BLS), the thesis explores the underlying reasons for declining U.S. economic growth. A long standing trend of annual 3% growth no longer seems to hold true for the economy. The paper summarizes current theory as to why the growth has slowed and finds new explanations by analyzing the various major industries which make up GDP. The results show that sectoral shifts in employment from high paying industries to low paying industries help to explain a significant portion of the decline in national growth rates. The decline in growth is primarily driven by about …

Institutional Development: Interpreting The Russian Case, Joshua W. Rooney

CMC Senior Theses

A fundamental question to both historians and development economists is why countries today are able to reach and maintain such starkly different economic outcomes. Popular explanations include geographic and climatological features, short-term policy decisions, and economic institutions. This paper looks at the importance of violence and social pressure in the transformation and conservation of political and economic institutions in Russia. It finds that several major historical legacies including serfdom, Mongol dominance, Orthodoxy, and authoritarianism significantly influence both the past a present institutional setting. Furthermore, such legacies have proven to be major obstructions to the emergence of economic liberalism.

Is Silence The Answer?, Gator Adams

CMC Senior Theses

This study examines the relationship between company management guidance, and ex-ante crash risk over the duration of 2008(Jan 2006-Dec 2009) financial crisis using the implied volatility skew, which is based upon ex-ante volatility implied by the pricing model developed by Black-Scholes (1973). The study finds that over the duration of this crisis period, management guidance decreases with a rise in ex-ante crash risk. Further, the study provides evidence on the relationship of management guidance and earnings volatility, and how that is affected by a firm's industry product concentration based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) score.

Governance By Economist: An Historical Note On The Keynesian Revolution, Lewis Karstensson

Molasky Family Department of Economics and Real Estate Faculty Research

An inferential analysis of the performance of the United States economy with respect to production, employment, and average price level over the twentieth century by presidential administration.

In Classical And Keynesian Times: The Twentieth Century Economy Revisited, Lewis Karstensson

Molasky Family Department of Economics and Real Estate Faculty Research

A descriptive analysis of the performance of the United States economy with respect to production, employment, and average price level over the twentieth century by presidential administration.

Review Of Magazines And The Making Of America: Modernization, Community, And Print Culture, 1741-1860. By Heather Haveman, Mark A. Mattes

Faculty and Staff Scholarship

Haveman’s work explores the changing ways that American magazine publishing and distribution helped create and shape local communities and, increasingly during the nineteenth century, the trans-local communities that are a hallmark of modern life. Her narration and synthesis of data and scholarship on the evolving genres, contents, infrastructures, and institutional workings of American magazines in chapters two through four alone make her work an important source on magazine production and distribution. Subsequent chapters provide a series of case studies on how magazines engendered communities around religion, social reform, and economic development. Following her conclusion, Haveman provides rich, detailed appendices on …

A County By County Analysis Of Poverty In The State Of Georgia, Derrick S. Ramage, William Levernier Dr.

Honors College Theses

The state of Georgia has one of the highest poverty rates of all the states in the United States. This study examines the causes of poverty in Georgia, using county-level data. The state of Georgia is one of the largest states in the Southeastern U.S. and is very diverse in terms of its mix of metropolitan and non-metropolitan counties, and its mix of agricultural and non-agricultural counties. The major focus of the paper is determining the effect that demographic, educational attainment, labor force, government assistance, and transportation characteristics of a county have on its poverty rate. The major findings of …

Warlord: The Political And Military Ambitions Of Nazi Germany, William R. Underhill

Senior Theses

There are so many important stories to consider when thinking about World War II. It is easy to think about the popular aspects of the war: the causes, the major figures, the battles, and, of course, the lasting consequences. Yet there are other, lesser known storylines to consider, ones that have taken a backseat to the more popular narratives of the time. It is commonly understood that Nazi Germany was evil and that they had nothing but ill intentions for the rest of Europe and the world. However, it is vital to understand that Germany’s pre-war intentions are notably different …

Slavery, Migration, And Local Development In The Western Us, Colin Q. Sharpe

Theses and Dissertations

This paper examines the effects of migration from eastern slave states in the 19th century on the subsequent development of counties in the Western US. I find that increased migration from slave states has a large, statistically significant negative effect on 2010 income, and no significant effect on racial inequality or overall income inequality. These findings are robust to a variety of specifications, including controls for geographic factors, state fixed effects, and various county level social and economic conditions. Data on individual migrants suggest that the cause of the negative income effect is the lower average human capital endowment of …

Crafting Chaos: The Classification Of Unilateral Transfers Under The Current Account At Bretton Woods And Its Impact On Remittances To The Indian State Of Kerala, Anish Gawande

Undergraduate Economic Review

This essay aims to analyse the classification of unilateral transfers under the current account at Bretton Woods despite significant opposition from larger delegations of major Allied powers, bringing to the forefront the global liquidity of remittances in the post-War years permitted by their fully currency convertible nature. Using the example of the Indian State of Kerala, this paper charts the relevance of their sustained uninterrupted flow to their subsequent exponential growth in the last three decades, using the case study as a pivot to argue for better policy measures that maximise their multiplier effect.

Pegxit Pressure: Evidence From The Classical Gold Standard, Kris James Mitchener, Gonçalo Pina

Economics

We develop a simple model that highlights the costs and benefits of fixed exchange rates as they relate to trade, and show that negative export-price shocks reduce fiscal revenue and increase the likelihood of an expected currency devaluation. Using a new high-frequency data set on commodity-price movements from the classical gold standard era, we then show that the model’s main prediction holds even for the canonical example of hard pegs. We identify a negative causal relationship between export-price shocks and currency-risk premia in emerging market economies, indicating that negative export-price shocks increased the probability that countries abandoned their pegs.

University Rankings: Evidence And A Conceptual Framework, Jonathan G.S. Koppell, Jacob Fowles, H. George Frederickson

Publications from President Jonathan G.S. Koppell

University ranking has high public visibility, the ranking business has flourished, and institutions of higher education have not been able to ignore it. This study of university ranking presents general considerations of ranking and institutional responses to it, particularly considering reactions to ranking, ranking as a self-fulfilling prophecy, and ranking as a means of transforming qualities into quantities. The authors present a conceptual framework of university ranking based on three propositions and carry out a descriptive statistical analysis of U.S. and international ranking data to evaluate those propositions. The first proposition of university ranking is that ranking systems are demarcated …

John Nash: A Personal Remembrance (Introduction To The John Forbes Nash Jr. Memorial Special Issue), Vernon Smith

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

In January of 2011, three years after his 80th birthday, Games and Economic Behavior published a special issue to honor John Nash. In their introductory note, the editors, Avinash Dixit, Ehud Kalai and Stephen Morris wrote: “We are delighted to have the privilege of coordinating this expression of the whole profession's admiration and appreciation of John Nash and his work, and look forward to a repeat in ten or even twenty years' time.”

This wish was sadly interrupted by tragedy. On their way back from the ceremony awarding John the Abel Prize in mathematics, John and his wife Alicia were …

The Integrity Of Financial Analysts: Evidence From Asymmetric Responses To Earnings Surprises, Rui Lu, Wenxuan Hou, Henry Oppenheimer, Ting Zhang

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This paper investigates the integrity of financial analysts by examining their recommendation responses to large quarterly earnings surprises. Although there is no significant difference in recommendation changes between affiliated and unaffiliated analysts in response to positive earnings surprises, affiliated analysts are more reluctant than unaffiliated analysts to downgrade stock recommendations in response to negative earnings surprises. The evidence implies that conflicts of interest undermine the integrity of financial analysts. We further examine the effects of reputation concern and the Global Research Analyst Settlement as informal and formal mechanisms, on restoring analysts’ integrity. The results show that the positive bias in …

Transatlantic Influences On American Corporate Jurisprudence: Theorizing The Corporation In The United States, Tara Helfman

Indiana Journal of Global Legal Studies

In interpreting and evaluating the history of the Supreme Court's corporate jurisprudence, legal scholars have deployed three broad theories of corporate legal personality: the aggregate entity theory, the artificial entity theory, and the real entity theory. While these theories are powerful ways of conceptualizing the corporation, this article shows that they have not been as central to the Supreme Court's corporate jurisprudence as recent scholarship suggests. It instead argues that historic transformations in the high court's corporate jurisprudence are best understood in light of contemporary intellectual currents rather than through an expost facto application of the aggregate, artificial, and real …

Patterns Of Growth And The Economic Development Of China, Adam C. Watson

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

By looking at the historical rise of modern China, starting with the end of the First Opium War (1842) through to the start of the war with Japan (1937), and then from the beginning of Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms (1979) to the present, this work reveals the striking similarities between the earlier and the later periods of capitalist development. If the country had not been able to draw on the deep-rooted knowledge and skills which originated in Shanghai and the port cities in the mid-nineteenth century, and instead pursued only uninformed free market principles without the training to make these …

Grandparents: The Silent Engine Behind China’S Economic Growth, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Migrant workers leave behind children to be taken care of by the elderly in villages – it is a win-win arrangement for all involved

Development Of Utility Theory And Utility Paradoxes, Timothy E. Dahlstrom

Lawrence University Honors Projects

Since the pioneering work of von Neumann and Morgenstern in 1944 there have been many developments in Expected Utility theory. In order to explain decision making behavior economists have created increasingly broad and complex models of utility theory. This paper seeks to describe various utility models, how they model choices among ambiguous and lottery type situations, and how they respond to the Ellsberg and Allais paradoxes. This paper also attempts to communicate the historical development of utility models and provide a fresh perspective on the development of utility models.

Daniel Defoe’S Literary Economies: The Shifting Role Of Narrative Uncertainty, Speculation, And Providence In Robinson Crusoe And Roxana., Terese J. Swords

Lawrence University Honors Projects

In my honors project, I analyze how Daniel Defoe’s first novel, Robinson Crusoe (1719), and his last, Roxana (1724), offer shifting economic commentary regarding England’s emerging 18^th century credit economy. This shift does not come as too much of a surprise, as his first and last novel straddle the historic moment of the South Sea Bubble’s burst. Therefore, Defoe’s works, when analyzed sequentially, capture the evolving attitude towards value and credit that was occurring throughout all of England.

In my first chapter, “Crusoe’s Post Facto Journal Editing: ‘How wonderfully we are delivered when we are aware of it,’” I …

Moral Hazard And Mispriced Systemic Risk In The Lead-Up To The 2007 Subprime Mortgage Crisis In The United States, Georgi Rusinov

Undergraduate Economic Review

The 2007 subprime crisis was caused by high demand for subprime mortgage products underpinned by the unrealistic assumption that property prices would keep rising indefinitely. The subprime mortgage market worked as expected as long as prices were rising and demand for property was high. When these two conditions were violated and the housing bubble collapsed, the system became dysfunctional, many subprime borrowers defaulted, and mortgage-backed securities lost much of their value. Prevention could have been achieved through regulatory measures to shift the risk back from taxpayers and investors to loan originators. Fair distribution of risk should be the main objective …

The Investment Casualties Of War: Global Impacts Of Armed Conflict On Foreign Direct Investment Inflows, Reinhard J. Cate Mr.

Master's Theses

Abstract: Involvement in the outbreak of an armed conflict can present a variety of potential risks to an involved nation’s economy. In this paper I examine if one one of those risks, specifically that a new war could scare away foreign investment actually occurs and whether the intensity of the conflict increases or lessens the potential impact. Using ordinary least squares on panel data from 1966 to 2015, I examine the short and long term impacts of armed conflict on global foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows using two measures of conflict intensity: Large conflicts or ‘wars’, with 1000 or more …

From The Classical School To Today: The Evolution Of Stagnation Theories, Francis J. Lukacovic Ii

Applied Economics Theses

The purpose of this thesis is to study the theory of secular stagnation, which was made famous by the American Keynesian economist Alvin Hansen in his book Full Recovery or Stagnation. The theory of secular stagnation has reappeared in economic circles today due to recent economic conditions since the financial crisis of 2007-2008. The thesis will analyze the history of the stagnation theory dating back to Classical economists in the 19^th century. The concept of a stagnating economy has been talked about for centuries with many economists adding important thoughts. Furthermore, the thesis will address the current questions and …

The Trans-Pacific Partnership And Vietnam, Duong Nhu Hung, Tran Quang Dang

Asian Management Insights

Opening up a bold new world for Vietnam’s trade and industry may not be so easy.

From Hard Money To Branch Banking California Banking In The Gold Rush Economy, Larry Schweikart, Lynne Pierson Doti

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

In Gold Rush–era California, banking and the financial sector evolved in often distinctive ways because of the Gold Rush economy. More importantly, the abundance of gold on the West Coast provided an interesting test case for some of the critical economic arguments of the day, especially for those deriving from the descending—but still powerful—positions of the “hard money” Jacksonians.

Holly Martins And The Impartial Spectator: The Economics Of The Third Man, Alexander W. Pickens

MAD-RUSH Undergraduate Research Conference

The film The Third Man is often critiqued for its portrayal of post-war Vienna and the abusive nature of totalitarian regimes in a nearly-anarchic state. However, this film does something that few other films do: it tackles the primary dilemmas facing economists using a visual medium and featuring some of the debates that have been plaguing economic thinkers for years (what is a just allocation of resources, competition in free markets, what happens when corrupt governments control resource allocation). Ultimately, the film is a unique analysis tension between the costs and benefits of the philosophies of Keynes and F. A. …

Working Paper No. 35, The Machine Process In Industry And Society: A Veblenian Approach, Emily Pitkin

Working Papers in Economics

This inquiry considers Thorstein Veblen’s understanding of the machine process and some of its influences. In particular, this paper explores relationships between the machine process and industry, noting the powerful influences of standardization of outputs as well as inputs. In addition, this paper considers some of the implications of the machine process on workers, considering particularly the tendency of the machine process to enforce routines and some of the related effects on “habitual thinking.” Finally, the machine process and its relation to society will be discussed with a focus on its effects on value systems, examining also the ways in …