Econometrics Commons^™

Does The Economy Determine The President? A Regression Model For Predicting Us Presidential Elections, Roy K. Roth

Undergraduate Economic Review

There is a prevalent belief that the economy determines the President. If the economy is good, the President keeps his job, if it is bad, he is out. A large body of econometric literature has been published on this topic. This paper takes a new approach. I look not at how the popular vote changes with economic conditions, but how the electoral vote changes. I further examine how these changes affect the probability that the incumbent party stays in office. I find that economic conditions may not be as important as they have been purported to be.

Incentivizing Biodiversity Conservation: The Ecological Icms In Brazil, Erin Franks

CMC Senior Theses

This study evaluates the effectiveness of the ecological ICMS (ICMS-e) in the Brazilian Amazon, an intragovernmental transfer for incentivizing biodiversity conservation. Tax funds are passed from state governments to municipalities in proportion to the amount of protected area within their borders; biological reserves, sustainable use areas, and indigenous lands are all considered. Econometric analysis using a fixed effects model found that the policy had little positive effect on increasing protected areas compared to the significant negative influence of poor land tenure, agricultural influences, and lack of monitoring for illegal deforestation. However, the policy may increase municipal governments' acceptance of and …

Estimating The Impact Of Cell Phone Laws On Car Accident Fatalities, Odinakachi Anyanwu

Pepperdine Policy Review

No abstract provided.

Singapore Consumer’S Inflation Expectations And Creation Of Singapore Index Of Inflation Expectations, Aurobindo Ghosh, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The aim of this report is to highlight a broad spectrum of issues that brings about the measurement of the disagreement and the uncertainity and the formation of inflation expectations among economic agents in Singapore.

Empirical Methods-A Review: With An Introduction To Data Mining And Machine Learning, Matt Bogard

Economics Faculty Publications

This presentation was part of a staff workshop focused on empirical methods and applied research. This includes a basic overview of regression with matrix algebra, maximum likelihood, inference, and model assumptions. Distinctions are made between paradigms related to classical statistical methods and algorithmic approaches. The presentation concludes with a brief discussion of generalization error, data partitioning, decision trees, and neural networks.

Improving The Teaching Of Econometrics At Pace University Using Stata, Gregory Colman

Cornerstone 3 Reports : Interdisciplinary Informatics

The goal of this grant was to improve the teaching of econometrics at Pace using the computer program, Stata, the most widely-used econometrics software among applied economists.

Do Bank Mergers Create Shareholder Value? An Event Study Analysis, Varini Sharma

Award Winning Economics Papers

This paper investigates the economic role of bank mergers in creating shareholder value based on the idea that shareholder wealth will increase if the consolidation leads to the aforementioned gains. This paper is divided into seven sections. The second section of my paper provides an academic review of the literature, focusing on econometric theory that tests the gains in shareholder value and corporate synergies after a merger. The third section introduces a conceptual model I have designed using econometric tools to test how bank mergers create shareholder value. The fourth section embarks on a discussion about my ideal data followed …

An Econometric Analysis Of The Determinants Of Investments By Insurance Companies In Nigeria, S. E. Omoruyi

Economic and Financial Review

The paper is divided into two parts. Part I discusses the concept of financial intermediation. Part II outlines the model of determinants of investments by the insurance industry and summarises the main findings and policy recommendations of the study.

An Econometric Model For Forecasting Industrial Electrical Sales For Indiana, Ronald E. Clarke

Graduate Thesis Collection

Projections of electrical energy sales constitutes the foundation for planning in the electric utility industry. Every distributor of electric energy, large or small, wholesaler or retailer, should have sales forecasts available upon which to base its physical and financial planning. Others associated with the industry, such as regulatory agencies and suppliers, also need such forecasts.

The purpose of this paper is to develop an econometric model for forecasting annual industrial kilowatt-hour sales for the State of Indiana. The model is designated so that State agencies, suppliers and individual companies can use the model.