Econometrics Commons^™

Statistical Inference For Noisy Matrix Completion Incorporating Auxiliary Information, Shujie Ma, Po-Yao Niu, Yichong Zhang, Yinchu Zhu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article investigates statistical inference for noisy matrix completion in a semi-supervised model when auxiliary covariates are available. The model consists of two parts. One part is a low-rank matrix induced by unobserved latent factors; the other part models the effects of the observed covariates through a coefficient matrix which is composed of high-dimensional column vectors. We model the observational pattern of the responses through a logistic regression of the covariates, and allow its probability to go to zero as the sample size increases. We apply an iterative least squares (LS) estimation approach in our considered context. The iterative LS …

Estimation And Inference In A Possibly Multicointegrated System With A Fixed Number Of Instruments, Yixiao Sun, Peter C. B. Phillips, Igor L. Kheifets

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper shows that the mixed normal asymptotic limit of the trend IV estimator with a fixed number of deterministic instruments (fTIV) holds in both singular (multicointegrated) and nonsingular cointegration systems, thereby relaxing the exogeneity condition in (Phillips and Kheifets, 2024, Theorem 1(ii)). The mixed normality of the limiting distribution of fTIV allows for asymptotically pivotal F and t tests about the cointegration parameters and for simple efficiency comparisons of the estimators for different numbers K of instruments, as well as comparisons with the trend IV estimator when K→∞ with the sample size.

Nonstationary Heterogeneous Panels With Multiple Structural Changes, Badi H. Baltagi, Qu Feng, Wei Wang

Center for Policy Research

Nonstationary panels have been widely used in empirical studies in macroeconomics and finance. This paper considers multiple structural changes in nonstationary heterogeneous panels with common factors. Kapetanios, Pesaran, Yamagata (2011) showed that unobserved nonstationary factors can be proxied by cross-sectional averages of observable data. This means that unobserved error factors can be treated as additional regressors, and different break points in slopes and error factor loadings can be considered as multiple breaks in linear regression models with panel data. We generalize the least squares approach by Bai and Perron (1998) to nonstationary panels and show that the break points in …

Analysis Of Systematic Trade-Offs Between Military And Healthcare Expenditure Alongside Gdp Growth Of Select Asian And Western Exporting Economies In The 21st Century, Rahul Balamurugan, Carlos Gershenson, Preethi Nanjundan, Hiroki Sayama

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

This study explores the complexity in the trade-offs between military expenditure, healthcare expenditure, and GDP growth across select Asian nations and major weapon-exporting countries, examining how nations allocate finite resources between national security and human well-being over the past two decades. Using a systems science approach, the research integrates Granger causality testing to analyze temporal and directional relationships among GDP growth, military expenditure, and healthcare expenditure, uncovering their dynamic interdependencies. The methodology includes trend and slope analysis, Granger causality testing, outlier detection, and clustering to identify heterogeneity in resource allocation strategies. Developed, weapon-exporting nations exhibit complementary trends, with strong causality …

Food Self-Sufficiency And Building-Integrated Urban Agriculture: Lessons From Singapore, Tomoki Fujii, Christoph Waibel, Xinyi Du, Zhongming Shi

Research Collection School Of Economics

Singapore aims to achieve 30 percent food self-sufficiency by 2030, known as the 30-by-30 target, and this paper reviews Singapore’s changing landscape for urban agriculture and its recent progress towards the 30-by-30 goal, highlighting key challenges such as land constraints, high production costs, and resource limitations. Building-integrated agriculture (BIA), which utilizes building surfaces such as rooftops, façades, and balconies for food production within urban environments, is examined as a potential way to increase self-sufficiency through a simulation. Despite the BIA’s potential, practical issues—including regulatory concerns and infrastructure limitations—must be addressed before it can be implemented at scale. Insights from Singapore’s …

Religion And Economic Development: Past, Present, And Future, Sascha O. Becker, Amma Panin, Steven J. Pfaff, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

This chapter examines the role of religion in economic development, both historically and today. Religion's influence varies globally, with high religiosity in countries like Pakistan and low rates in China. Despite declines in some Western countries, religion remains influential worldwide, with projected growth in Muslim populations due to higher fertility rates. Religion continues to shape societal norms and institutions, such as education and politics, even after its direct influence fades. The chapter explores how religious institutions and norms have impacted economic outcomes, focusing on both persistence and decline. It also examines cultural transmission, institutional entrenchment, networks, and religious competition as …

Religion, Culture, And Politics, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

This chapter presents a conceptual framework for understanding the interaction of religion, ideology, and politics. The framework’s key insights are: i) culture and ideology provide a shared mental framework for interpreting the world; ii) ideology is malleable, and it can be used to justify a wide set of empirical realities in a manner that is consistent with the prevailing mental framework; iii) religion is particularly adept at shaping this mental framework because it attempts to explain the unknown; iv) because co-religionists share a mental framework that depends on a (religious) interpretation of events, religions are particularly likely to be co-opted …

Fintech’S Rise Reshaping Asean’S Financial Future, Swee Liang Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Fintech can offset the diminishing effects of bank lending on economic growth. By leveraging innovative technologies, fintech companies can reduce transaction costs, address information asymmetry issues and streamline processes such as customer evaluation and risk assessment. This strategic collaboration between banks and fintech firms can lead to improved efficiency and effectiveness in financial services, such as pressuring traditional banks to innovate in areas such as customer interface and processes, ultimately boosting economic growth.

Poverty Among New York City’S Most Vulnerable: 2000-2022, Juan Dolores Cerna, Suleyma Vergara-Tapia

Center for Latin American, Caribbean, and Latino Studies

This report examines the trends of poverty in New York City between the years 2000 and 2022, focusing on economically vulnerable groups such as women, children, and older adults

Methods

This report uses data for the years 2000, 2012, and 2022 released by the U.S. Census Bureau and harmonized for public use by IPUMS USA at the University of Minnesota. See Steven Ruggles, Sarah Flood, Ma hew Sobek, Daniel Backman, Annie Chen, Grace Cooper, Stephanie Richards, Renae Rodgers, and Megan Schouweiler. IPUMS USA: Version 15.0 [dataset]. Minneapolis, MN: IPUMS, 2024. https://www.ipums.org/projects/ipums-usa/d010.V15.0

Discussion

From 2000 to 2022, New York City experienced …

Twitter Based Uncertainty And Stock Returns Connectedness In Case Of Selected Apec Countries, Badri Narayan Rath, Chinmaya Behera

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

The aim of the paper is to unravel evidence of non-linear causality and connectedness between Twitter-based uncertainty and stock market returns for selected APEC countries. By using a non-linear Granger causality test, the study finds that Twitterbased uncertainty causes stock returns of Japan and Singapore. Further, the results also confirm the presence of volatility spillover between Twitter uncertainty and stock returns. Thus, volatility spillover from Twitter-based uncertainty and financial market returns provides insights to investors on adjusting their investments between the countries.

The Impact Of Financial Inclusion On Inflation In The Mena Region: Oil Vs Non-Oil Countries, Jailan Elsaid

Theses and Dissertations

The study examines the impact of financial inclusion on inflation as a tool for monetary policy effectiveness in the MENA region, separating the analysis into oil and non-oil countries from 2004 to 2022. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique is used to create a multidimensional index of financial inclusion through usage and access dimensions. Additionally, PVAR GMM estimation and Granger causality tests are implemented to analyze the dynamics and causality between financial inclusion and inflation, while controlling for other variables such as broad money, real effective exchange rate, and real GDP growth, which may influence the relationship according to the …

From Home To Abroad: The Intergenerational Impact Of Household Member Migration On Women’S Economic & Social Empowerment In Egypt, Menna Elgohary

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis investigates to what extent the migration of a household member to an Arab country leads to increased social and economic empowerment among Egyptian women of two age categories (15-35 and +35) over two waves. Determined through Principle Component Analysis (PCA) of panel data from Egypt Labor Market Panel Surveys in 2018 and 2023, composite indices of social and economic empowerment serve as dependent variables in an IV 2SLS regression model. The model assesses whether household member migration, proxied by migration prevalence on the district (qism) level as an IV, causes a significant increase in social and economic empowerment …

Internet Penetration And Firm Innovation In The Digital Era: A Sectoral Analysis Of U.S. Firms, Mariam Elgarf

Theses and Dissertations

This paper studies the effect of macro-level internet penetration on firm-level innovation in the United States, proxied by research and development expenditure. The IV approach is used to address the problem of potential endogeneity, covering data from 2000 to 2022 across five super industries: consumer goods and retail, energy and electricity, media and entertainment, financial services, and technology and telecommunications. The results show that internet penetration has a positive effect on the innovative performance of all sectors; however, this effect is more pronounced in the financial service and media sectors. Firm-specific characteristics also influence this relationship, such as debt-to-assets ratio, …

Essays In Industrial Organization, Nilesh Kumar Jain

Doctoral Theses

This thesis contains three chapters on industrial organization, covering two distinct topics. Chapters 1 and 2 examine the impact of firm owner's corruption on the organization, while Chapter 3 analyzes the market dynamics of a two-sided newspaper market.\medskip The first chapter investigates the agency conflict that arises when the principal (the owner) of a firm is involved in corruption. A corruptible principal has an incentive to conceal his or her illegal activities, while the agent (CEO or manager), due to their information advantage, is in a position to monitor this corruption, thus creating an agency conflict. We show that such …

How Do Insurance Companies Manage Reserves? Evidence From Reserve Errors Across Lines Of Business And Accident Years, Jing Rong Goh, Shinichi Kamiya, Pingyi Lou

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the question of how insurance companies manage reserves. Specifically, we investigate how managerial incentives affect insurers’ reserving practice across lines of business (LOBs) and accident years (AYs). Because the tax discount factor the tax authority assigns varies across LOBs and AYs, insurers with stronger tax-saving incentives will be inclined to manage reserves across both LOBs and AYs. In contrast, since the Risk Based Capital (RBC) regime specifies different industry worst-case factors across LOBs, insurers with stronger incentives to increase their RBC ratio will be inclined to manage reserves across LOBs. Regarding income-smoothing incentives, only the overall level (and …

Banking And The Wider Economy: Essays On Capital And Cross-Border Risks, Morgan Hunt

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1: This paper examines the impact of growth in the banking industry’s capital and assets on real output growth at both aggregate and industry levels using a short-run factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model across 19 NAICS two-digit industries from 2007Q1 to 2019Q4. Results reveal that changes in capital growth significantly affect output growth in the Manufacturing and Finance industries, while changes in risk-weighted assets impact the Construction, Manufacturing, Real Estate, and Transportation industries. Conversely, output growth in the Manufacturing and Retail Trade industries influences capital growth, while Wholesale Trade output growth affects risk-weighted assets. These relationships are robust …

Eksplorasi Dinamika Antara Internet Dan Kemiskinan Multidimensional Di Indonesia: Pendekatan Kuasi-Eksperimental, Kleovan Nathanael Gunawan

Jurnal Ekonomi Kependudukan dan Keluarga

Poverty is a dynamic, diverse, and multidimensional concept. Its definition has evolved over time, moving from a monetary focus to a multidimensional perspective. Although poverty reduction has long been a critical issue, few studies have examined the role of the internet in addressing multidimensional poverty. To bridge this gap in the literature, this study explores the impact of internet access on multidimensional poverty in Indonesia, using data from the 2023 Susenas survey. Based on Propensity Score Matching results, evidence shows that internet access negatively affects multidimensional poverty. This research underscores the importance of internet access, highlighting the need for policies …

Assessing The Readiness And Awareness Of Key Stakeholders In The Egyptian Maritime Industry To Implement Smart Green Port Practices: A Case Study Of Alexandria Port, Mohamed Elhussieny, Ahmed El Kassar, Kareem Tonbol

Blue Economy

This study explores the readiness and preparedness of the major stakeholders within the Egyptian maritime sector towards the adoption of smart green port practices, with particular consideration given to Alexandria Port. With growing environmental threats, the need to support sustainable maritime operations is high. The study evaluates the current state of the ecosystem at Alexandria Port and benchmark it against international standards to highlight the critical gaps that should be covered for the effective execution of smart green port approaches. The results indicate that, although stakeholders have basic knowledge of sustainability issues, large perceived barriers, particularly regarding resource availability, limited …

Effects Of Regulations On Digital Asset Prices: Evidence From The Counter-Strike Game Series, John Logan Stewart

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

Counter-Strike: Global Offensive and Counter-Strike 2 are first-person-shooter video games in which players can own cosmetics for their weapons, known as “skins”. These skins can be traded, bought, or sold through various means. This study seeks to examine the effects of a regulation implemented by developers of the game which banned the sale and trade of a common tax-free medium of exchange (case keys) for these skins and seeks to classify them as either a utility-based collectible or purely a digital commodity like cryptocurrencies. Using a novel and expansive panel data set gathered from the Steam Market and econometric models …

Renewable Energy And Economic Growth: Evidence From A Global Panel Data Analysis Of Advanced And Emerging Economies, Ryan A. Campbell

Soaring: A Journal of Undergraduate Research

This study assesses the impact of renewable energy consumption on economic growth using a global panel dataset of 136 advanced and emerging and developing economies. Drawing on classifications from the International Monetary Fund, it employs econometric modeling to analyze the long-term effects of renewable energy consumption on economic output and development, while also examining how returns differ based on a country's level of economic development. The results indicate that while renewable energy consumption initially incurs costs for all economies, emerging and developing economies generally experience more moderate returns compared to advanced economies, which ultimately realize greater economic benefits in the …

Electric Commuter Rail Access In Residential Communities: A Hedonic Analysis Case Study Of Nonmarket Value Creation, Catherine A. Sunding

Scripps Senior Theses

This study quantifies the price impact on houses of a new electric commuter rail line outside of Denver, Colorado. I find a negative price impact corresponding to increased accessibility and proximity of homes to the rail stations due to the negative externalities associated with the track. I also discover an even larger negative price impact of the rail stations in the years before the stations opened to the public, indicating possible endogeneity in the location of the rail line. I attempt to account for this endogeneity using instrumental variable analysis due to a limitation of house pricing data before 2016.

The International Transracial Adoption Effect: Measuring The Well-Being Of Korean Adoptees Vs. Non-Adopted Korean Americans, Grace H. Jones

Honors Theses

In this study, I examine the differences in well-being and long-term outcomes between adopted and non-adopted Korean Americans. The vast majority of adopted Korean Americans are placed with white, heterosexual couples, positioning them in a unique position in American society. While they are raised in white families and often disconnected from Korean culture, they are still perceived and treated as Asian by society. Scholars refer to this tension as the transracial adoptee paradox. This study explores how that paradox affects both economic and non-economic outcomes. The analysis finds that adopted Koreans tend to earn higher incomes than their non-adopted peers, …

Redefining The Relevant Market: Abandonment Or Return To Brown Shoe, Daniel A. Hanley

Dickinson Law Review (2017-Present)

Defining a relevant market is arguably the most important requirement in antitrust litigation. Between the 1890s and the 1940s, defining a relevant market was a simple and generalized process, typically undertaken by courts as a cursory matter. However, in the 1960s, defining relevant markets became a centerpiece of antitrust litigation. The modern method originates from the Supreme Court’s landmark 1962 decision in Brown Shoe v. United States. The method commonly known as the Brown Shoe test requires judges to construct relevant markets by carefully analyzing accessible and understandable qualitative data, such as internal corporate documents and consumer surveys. Since the …

Reporting And Underreporting Of Sex Harassment In United States Public Schools: A Mixed Methods Analysis, Erica S. Matthisen

Scripps Senior Theses

Using mixed methods, I assess the factors that contribute to the underreporting of sex harassment in elementary and secondary educational environments. I first use regional Title IX data to assess the impacts of Title IX resource access on several indicator variables, finding a positive impact on allegations and discipline cases when a harassment/bullying policy was made available online. Next, I seek to identify other factors that contribute to reporting or underreporting. To that end, I conduct organizational analysis and informational interviews. From the organizational analysis, I identify factors that contribute to the normalization and underreporting of sex harassment and strategies …

Do Public School Choice Policies Segregate Schools? Dynamic Effects In Michigan, Danielle Sanderson Edwards, Kaitlin P. Anderson

Educational Leadership & Workforce Development Faculty Publications

Interdistrict choice has the potential to exacerbate or alleviate between-district segregation-an increasingly pervasive form of U.S. school segregation-by allowing students to attend schools in districts where they do not reside. Prior research concentrates on the effects of charter schooling on segregation within districts and counties. We used longitudinal enrollment and demographic data from Michigan to examine the impacts of both interdistrict and charter school choice on racial and economic segregation within and between districts in a single setting. We estimated these effects by leveraging between-grade differences in choice use within school systems and years. We confirmed findings from previous research …

Analyzing Real-Time Behavioral Shifts In Response To Tourism Policy Using Google Trends Data And Advanced Difference-In-Differences (Did) Methods, Aaron Bradley Scott

Doctor of Business Administration Dissertations

Google Trends is a publicly available aggregate search data portal that allows researchers to capture and review search interests. This dissertation analyzes real-time behavioral shifts resulting from tourism policy changes in Venice, Italy using Google Trends data. This work contributes to the current literature in DiD modeling, by using information-seeking behavior that is ahead of observable, lagged, outcomes. Through the integration of recent DiD advancements, this work further extends DiD applications in tourism econometrics, and a case-example of real-world tourism policy assessment. This dissertation highlights changes in search behavior immediately following policy implementation. Additionally, this work highlights Google Trends as …

Three Essays On Sustainability Economics, Hélène Flore Nguemgaing

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

As global economies face increasing resource dependencies and supply chain challenges, it becomes essential to understand the vulnerabilities that threaten economic stability. This dissertation investigates three empirical issues in agribusiness and critical minerals using econometric models to estimate the following: 1) the impact of supply chain disruptions on stock market returns during COVID-19; 2) the extraction of rare earth elements from acid mine drainage treatment by investigating the impacts of ownership and legislation in West Virginia and Pennsylvania; 3) China-to�FOBb (Free-on-Board) price transmission in rare earth elements markets: a copula-based dynamic tail dependence analysis.

The first essay evaluates how events …

Assessing High-Speed Rail (Hsr) Policy And Politics In Washington State: Avoiding The Mistakes Of The Past, Landen K. Hashimura

All Master's Theses

While international standard high-speed rail (HSR) has yet to be successfully completed in the US, there is a national interest in the topic, as evidenced by recent federal initiatives to research HSR across various corridors. The Cascadia Corridor has been identified as a region with high potential for HSR, leading to an ongoing study in the State of Washington. Given the tumultuous history of American HSR development, the Cascadia HSR initiative needs to avoid the mistakes of the past. Two major contributing factors to this failure to build HSR are uneven political support for HSR and poor policy frameworks. Despite …

The Effect Of Regime Type On Development Outcomes In Bangladesh, Simar Malhotra

Scripps Senior Theses

Bangladesh has been characterized by a turbulent political state since gaining its independence in 1971, moving back and forth between a democracy and autocracy. With this, they have also experienced immense gains in development over the last thirty years, especially within health, education, and female empowerment. This thesis exploits Bangladesh’s unique regime-switching setting to measure the impact of a shift from autocracy to democracy on child health, maternal health, and women’s autonomy within a single-country context. Using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Program, the analysis finds that a shift from an autocracy to a democracy increases the …

Modeling Inflation Expectations In Forward-Looking Interest Rate And Money Growth Rules, Zhengyang Chen, Victor J. Valcarcel

Faculty Publications

We propose a novel approach that directly embeds rational expectations (RE) into a low-dimensional structural vector autoregression (SVAR) without the need for any mapping to a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Beginning from a fully specified “consensus” structural model, we establish an instrumental variable procedure internal to the SVAR to obtain RE-consistent structural responses to identified monetary policy shocks. Our RE-SVAR framework facilitates a comparison across two alternative monetary policy indicators that accommodate long horizons in the formation of inflation expectations in the policy rule. We construct clouds of responses of inflation and economic activity to monetary …