Econometrics Commons^™

Exploiting A Grading Policy Shift As An Instrument To Estimate Impact Of Grading On Teacher Evaluations, Gavin Johnson

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

Professors at a university plausibly have an incentive to give higher grades to students, and these higher grades will be reflected in student evaluations, which are used to assess teaching quality, which could have career impacts. This paper takes advantage of a policy shift at the business school at Utah State University that introduced suggested caps on the average course grades that teachers gave. This allowed instrumental variable analysis to correct for bias in OLS estimations of these impacts. The correlation between grades and students' evaluations of teachers was found to be positive suggesting that student evaluations of teachers are …

The Impact Of Graduate School Ranking On An Economics Professor’S Annual Earnings, Shailee Manandhar

Honors Theses

What are the economic returns to attending a more selective college? This thesis adds to the growing literature on college choices and economic returns by analyzing the effects of graduate school ranking on the annual earnings of economics professors in the United States. In order to answer this question, the author collected an original data set using publicly available salary information from a number of US-based institutions. The data in this paper uses McPherson’s ranking of US Economics Departments, h-index, and other factors collected from the individuals’ CVs to estimate the economic returns. The results from Ordinary Least Squares regression …

In-Fill Asymptotic Theory For Structural Break Point In Autoregression, Liang Jiang, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article obtains the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of structural break point in the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process when a continuous record is available. The exact distribution is asymmetric, trimodal, dependent on the initial condition. These three properties are also found in the finite sample distribution of the least squares (LS) estimator of structural break point in autoregressive (AR) models. Motivated by these observations, the article then develops an in-fill asymptotic theory for the LS estimator of structural break point in the AR(1) coefficient. The in-fill asymptotic distribution is also asymmetric, tri-modal, dependent on the initial condition, and delivers …

Environmental Policy And Employment: The Effect Of The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative On The Labor Market, Kelly-Anne Moffa

Honors Scholar Theses

This paper estimates the impacts that the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, implemented in 2009, has had on labor market outcomes within the policy region. The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative is a carbon cap-and-trade program that consists of ten states in the Northeast. Using a difference-in-difference framework, I found that, overall, there was no significant impact on the annual employment growth rate because of RGGI. When broken down into industry-specific effects, most industries still had no significant employment effects, although the mining industry did see a weakly significant 0.09 percentage point decrease in its annual employment growth rate. These estimates are …

Three Essays On Nonstationary Financial Econometrics, Yajie Zhang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation consists of three essays that contribute to the theory of nonstationary time-series analysis.

The first chapter explores the inference procedures for predictive regressions with time-varying characteristics. We extend the self-generated instrumentation, called IVX, to incorporate persistent regressors of functional local-to-unity, functional mildly explosive, and functional mildly stationary roots. The asymptotic distributions of IVX estimators under time-varying parameters are novel and nonpivotal but lead to pivotal distributions of the corresponding Wald statistics that are robust across various roots. The numerical experiments justify the robustness of IVX testing procedures in finite samples. We also verify the existence of time-varying coefficients …

On Factor Models With Random Missing: Em Estimation, Inference, And Cross Validation, Sainan Jin, Ke Miao, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider the estimation and inference in approximate factor models with random missing values. We show that with the low rank structure of the common component, we can estimate the factors and factor loadings consistently with the missing values replaced by zeros. We establish the asymptotic distributions of the resulting estimators and those based on the EM algorithm. We also propose a cross validation-based method to determine the number of factors in factor models with or without missing values and justify its consistency. Simulations demonstrate that our cross validation method is robust to fat tails in the error distribution and …

Boosting: Why You Can Use The Hp Filter, Peter C. B. Phillips, Zhentao Shi

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose a procedure of iterating the HP filter to produce a smarter smoothing device, called the boosted HP (bHP) filter, based on L2-boosting in machine learning. Limit theory shows that the bHP filter asymptotically recovers trend mechanisms that involve integrated processes, deterministic drifts, and structural breaks, covering the most common trends that appear in current modeling methodology. A stopping criterion automates the algorithm, giving a data-determined method for data-rich environments. The methodology is illustrated in simulations and with three real data examples that highlight the differences between simple HP filtering, the bHP filter, and an alternative autoregressive approach.

Business Cycles, Trend Elimination, And The Hp Filter, Peter C. B. Phillips, Sainan Jin

Research Collection School Of Economics

Trend elimination and business cycle estimation are analyzed by finite sample and asymptotic methods. An overview history is provided, operator theory is developed, limit theory as the sample size n → ∞ is derived, and filtered series properties are studied relative to smoothing parameter (λ) behavior. Simulations reveal that limit theory with λ =O(n4) delivers excellent approximations to the HP filter for common sample sizes but fails to remove stochastic trends, contrary to standard thinking in macroeconomics and thereby explaining ‘spurious cycle’ effects of the HP filter. The findings are related to the long run effects of the GFC.

Trustors’ Disregard For Trustees Deciding Intuitively Or Reflectively: Three Experiments On Time Constraints, Antonio Cabrales, Antonio M. Espín, Praveen Kujal, Stephen Rassenti

ESI Working Papers

Human decisions in the social domain are modulated by the interaction between intuitive and reflective processes. Requiring individuals to decide quickly or slowly triggers these processes and is thus likely to elicit different social behaviors. Meanwhile, time pressure has been associated with inefficiency in market settings and market regulation often requires individuals to delay their decisions via cooling-off periods. Yet, recent research suggests that people who make reflective decisions are met with distrust. If this extends to external time constraints, then forcing individuals to delay their decisions may be counterproductive in scenarios where trust considerations are important. In three Trust …

Standard Vs Random Dictator Games: On The Effects Of Role Uncertainty And Framing On Generosity, Ernesto Mesa-Vázquez, Ismael Rodriguez-Lara, Amparo Urbano

ESI Working Papers

We show that generosity is affected when we vary the level of role uncertainty, i.e., the probability that the dictator’s decision will be implemented. We also show that framing matters for generosity in that subjects are less generous when they are told that their choices will be implemented with a certain probability, compared with a setting in which they are told that their choices will not be implemented with certain probability.

Covid-19: A Black Swan?, Ben M. Uehlinger

Senior Honors Projects, 2020-current

A Black Swan, as termed by Nassim Taleb, is an unexpected, high magnitude event that is often rationalized in hindsight. 9/11 and the Financial Crisis of 2008 are two examples of these tail probability events. Though COVID-19 has been regarded as momentous and unexpected, Taleb does not credit it as a true Black Swan. This paper aims to compare COVID-19 to these recent Black Swans in terms of predictability and significance. Cointegration was tested across 11 major sectors. Further economic indicators were explored with the goal of discussing the broader context of each event. It was concluded that COVID-19 was …

Modeling The Us Beef Industry’S Response To Covid-19, Owen Michael Fleming

Undergraduate Economic Review

To understand the beef industry’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, I proposed a three-sector model of the beef supply-chain and estimated it econometrically. Based on their definitions, it is found that panic, stay-at-home procedures, and expectations are not significant explanatory variables. However, there is strong evidence that COVID-19 spread in a set of counties with large meatpacking plants has the effect of increasing wholesale beef prices, while country-wide spread has the effect of reducing wholesale prices. The results further imply differences in competition across the market levels, with wholesalers responding as if they face less competition than retailers and farmers.

Sunk Or Dunk?: An Empirical Analysis Of The Effect Of Sunk Cost Fallacy In Professional Basketball, Hailey Dicicco

Business and Economics Presentations

This project is divided into two sections. The first section is a comparison between the NBA and WNBA, using performance metrics from game statistics. I researched the history of women in sports and specifically read about how women first became integrated into the game of soccer. In the regression for section one, we used a few selected performance metrics and minutes in order to observe any relationships between specific skills and minutes. We also focused on the difference between the leagues in terms of what game stats are more or less significant.

In the second section of this paper, we …

Legalized Same-Sex Marriage And Coming Out In America: Evidence From Catholic Seminaries, Avner Seror, Rohit Ticku

ESI Working Papers

We study the effect of legalization of same-sex marriage on coming out in the United States. We overcome data limitations by inferring coming out decisions through a revealed preference mechanism. We exploit data on enrollment in seminary studies for the Catholic priesthood, hypothesizing that Catholic priests' vow of celibacy may lead gay men to self-select as a way to avoid a heterosexual lifestyle. Using a differences-in-differences design that exploits variation in the timing of legalization across states, we find that city-level enrollment in priestly studies fell by about 15% exclusively in states adopting the reform. The celibacy norm appears to …

Case Study Of Property Value Transfer Attributed To Transit: Spatial And Temporal Hedonic Price Impact Of Light Rail In Minnesota’S Twin Cities, Kate Ko

Journal of Public Transportation

Does the proximity of transit increase property values, and can one example apply to another? Using a spatial and temporal hedonic price framework, a study of light rail transit’s impact on residential property values compares the station area property impacts of the Green and Blue lines in Saint Paul and Minneapolis. The study also points to when “value transfer” (used here to describe the comparison and application of property value impacts near transit) is appropriate, and what practitioners should keep in mind to maximize the effectiveness of the exercise. In the case of value transfer for transit, the study finds …

Sfa Application On Islamic Economics And Finance Research, Aam Slamet Rusydiana, Lina Nugraha Rani, Rosadiro Cahyono

Library Philosophy and Practice (e-journal)

This study aims to determine the map of SFA research on Islamic economics and finance (IEF). SFA or Stochastic Frontier Approach is one method for parametric efficiency measurement. The data analyzed were in the form of publication of the SFA application research on IEF, totaling 109 articles. Map of the development of SFA field research is obtained through the export process into the .txt file format. The export data is then processed and analyzed using the VOSviewer application program to determine the SFA development’s bibliometric map in Islamic finance application research. The results showed that the number of publications on …

New York Camp Econometrics Xv Program, Center For Policy Research

Camp Econometrics-Programs

No abstract provided.

A Hybrid Equity Release Plan For Retirement Financing, Koon Shing Kwong, Yiu Kuen Tse, Junxing Chay

Research Collection School Of Economics

There are two main equity release plans for retirement financing: reverse mortgage plan and home reversion plan. Both plans entitle the homeowners not only to release cash from their properties but also to allow them living there for life. In the lease buyback scheme (LBS) recently introduced in Singapore, the home owner sells the tail-end of the property lease to the government in exchange for a cash payment upfront. Unlike the two main equity release plans, the LBS only allows the owner to stay in the property for the front part of the lease but not for life.

In this …

Trade Clusters And Usa Southern Border Transportation Costs: 1995-2015, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Ernesto Duarte Ronquillo

Border Region Modeling Project

Fixed effects panel regression analysis is used to examine the impact of trade clusters on transportation costs along the southern border of the United States. CIF/ FOB ratios are utilized as the transportation cost measures. Grubel-Lloyd and Herfindahl- Hirschman indexes are utilized to identify trade clusters in the sample. Data are assembled for four custom districts (El Paso, Laredo, Nogales, and San Diego) during a 20-year period between 1995 and 2015. Because cross-sectional residual dependence is present, parameter estimation is carried out using Driscoll-Kraay robust standard errors. 9/11 terrorist attack effects are taken into account in the fixed effects model. …

Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Models With Correlated Random Effects, Liyao Li, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, M-estimation and inference methods are developed for spatial dynamic panel data models with correlated random effects, based on short panels. The unobserved individual-specific effects are assumed to be correlated with the observed time-varying regressors linearly or in a linearizable way, giving the so-called correlated random effects model, which allows the estimation of effects of time-invariant regressors. The unbiased estimating functions are obtained by adjusting the conditional quasi-scores given the initial observations, leading to M-estimators that are consistent, asymptotically normal, and free from the initial conditions except the process starting time. By decomposing the estimating functions …

Mildly Explosive Autoregression With Anti-Persistent Errors, Yiu Lim Lui, Weilin Xiao, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

An asymptotic distribution is derived for the least squares (LS) estimate of a first‐order autoregression with a mildly explosive root and anti‐persistent errors. While the sample moments depend on the Hurst parameter asymptotically, the Cauchy limiting distribution theory remains valid for the LS estimates in the model without intercept and a model with an asymptotically negligible intercept. Monte Carlo studies are designed to check the precision of the Cauchy distribution in finite samples. An empirical study based on the monthly NASDAQ index highlights the usefulness of the model and the new limiting distribution.

Determining The Number Of Communities In Degree-Corrected Stochastic Block Models, Shujie Ma, Liangjun Su, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose to estimate the number of communities in degree-corrected stochastic block models based on a pseudo likelihood ratio. For estimation, we consider a spectral clustering together with binary segmentation method. This approach guarantees an upper bound for the pseudo likelihood ratio statistic when the model is over-fitted. We also derive its limiting distribution when the model is under-fitted. Based on these properties, we establish the consistency of our estimator for the true number of communities. Developing these theoretical properties require a mild condition on the average degree: growing at a rate faster than log(n), where n is the number …

Mildly Explosive Autoregression With Anti-Persistent Errors, Yui Lim Lui, Jun Yu, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

An asymptotic distribution is derived for the least squares (LS) estimate of a first-order autoregression with a mildly explosive root and anti-persistent errors. While the sample moments depend on the Hurst parameter asymptotically, the Cauchy limiting distribution theory remains valid for the LS estimates in the model without intercept and a model with an asymptotically negligible intercept. Monte Carlo studies are designed to check the precision of the Cauchy distribution in finite samples. An empirical study based on the monthly NASDAQ index highlights the usefulness of the model and the new limiting distribution.

A State-Of-The-Art Review Of The Sharing Economy: Scientometric Mapping Of The Scholarship, Anton Klarin, Yuliani Suseno

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

© 2020 Elsevier Inc. Using a dataset of 2,229 scholarly outputs from the Web of Science on the sharing economy (SE), our scientometric review provides a taxonomy of the current research on the SE in terms of their contributions, theories, and methods utilized in existing studies. The review also highlights a typology of the inter-related concepts of the SE. We demonstrate four clusters of existing research: freelance work and its implications, transportation and solutions for the sustainable development of the SE, user experience and collaborative consumption, and the SE in the context of hospitality and tourism. We suggest future research …

Commodity Futures Returns And Policy Uncertainty, Deepa Bannigidadmath, Paresh Kumar Narayan

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

© 2020 Elsevier Inc. This paper investigates whether economic policy uncertainty is predictable using three sets of commodity futures market variables, namely the equal-weighted average of futures excess returns, the excess returns on a portfolio of going long in backwardated commodities, and the excess returns on a portfolio of going short in contango commodities as predictors. We find significant evidence of both in-sample and out-of-sample predictability. Combination forecasts also reveal strong evidence of predictability. Our findings remain unchanged following several robustness tests.

Change In Outbreak Epicentre And Its Impact On The Importation Risks Of Covid-19 Progression: A Modelling Study, Oyelola A. Adegboye, Adeshina I. Adekunle, Anton Pak, Ezra Gayawan, Denis H. Y. Leung, Diana P. Rojas, Emma S. Mcbryde, Damon P. Eisen

Research Collection School Of Economics

Background: The outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) that was first detected in the city of Wuhan, China has now spread to every inhabitable continent, but now the attention has shifted from China to other epicentres. This study explored early assessment of the influence of spatial proximities and travel patterns from Italy on the further spread of SARS-CoV-2 worldwide. Methods: Using data on the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 and air travel data between countries, we applied a stochastic meta-population model to estimate the global spread of COVID-19. Pearson's correlation, semi-variogram, and Moran's Index were used to …

The Influence Of Food Recommendations: Evidence From A Randomized Field Experiment, Kamal Bookwala, Caleb Gallemore, Joaquín Gómez-Miñambres

ESI Working Papers

We report results from a randomized field experiment conducted at two food festivals. Our primary aim is to assess the impact of two types of recommendations commonly observed in food settings: most popular and chef’s choice. Subjects select a cupcake from a binary menu. The two options, offered by the same bakery, are the best seller in the bakery and the baker’s recommended cupcake. Our treatments manipulate whether the recommendation is disclosed in tandem with the cupcakes in the menu. We find that the most popular is the only recommendation that statistically significantly increased consumers’ demand relative to …

Essays On Random Social Choice Theory, Soumyarup Sadhukhan Dr.

Doctoral Theses

The thesis covers an extreme point characterization of strategy-proof and unanimous probabilistic rules over binary restricted domains. It shows that every strategy-proof and unanimous probabilistic rule on a binary restricted domain has binary support, and is a probabilistic mixture of strategy-proof and unanimous deterministic rules. Examples of binary restricted domains are single-dipped domains, which are of interest when considering the location of public bads. We also provide an extension to infinitely many alternatives. It also discusses that a random rule on a top-connected single-peaked domain is unanimous and strategy-proof if and only if it is a random min-max rule. As …

Cost Countries Pay For High Homicide Rates, Brittany Lowe

Grawemeyer Colloquium Papers

This research finds the economic cost, in terms of GDP per capita, to countries for increased violence using typical econometric models, and then makes recommendations to decision makers about funding allocation of violence prevention programs based off its findings.

The Feasibility Of Renewable Natural Gas In New Jersey, Anneliese Dyer, Amelia Christine Miller, Brianna Chandra, Juan Galindo Maza, Carley Tran, Justin Bates, Vicky Olivier, Amy Tuininga

PSEG Institute for Sustainability Studies Publications

With traditional natural gas being one of the top options for heating in the United States and the present threat of climate change, there is a demand for an alternative clean fuel source. A Renewable Natural Gas Implementation Decision-Making Conceptual Model was created to provide a framework for considering the feasibility of renewable natural gas (RNG) projects and applied to New Jersey, specifically investigating landfills and wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Data from the US EPA’s Landfill Methane Outreach Program and New Jersey’s Department of Environmental Protection Sewage Sludge databases were used to identify seven landfills and 22 WWTPs as possible …