Econometrics Commons^™

The Effects Of Tax Rates, Technology, And Quality Of Life On Standard Of Living In Developed Countries, Benjamin Jackson

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the relationship between tax rates, technology, and the quality of life on the standard of living in developed countries over time. The study uses an econometric model to understand and quantify these relationships. Standard of living will be measured by PPP GDP in this study. The results show the most significant variables that impact the standard of living are life expectancy at birth, openness to trade, the domestic savings rate, and corruption.

Education Spending And The Lottery In The Western United States: A Panel Data Analysis, Erica Vendituoli

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the relationship between the existence of a state lottery and state education spending. When consumers participate in the lottery, it is often with the assumption that even if they lose, their money will be contributed to state funded programs like education. This study looks at ten states in the west that have a variety of lottery circumstances. Both education expenditure as a percent of total state expenditure and per pupil aid are used to measure education funding. This research also incorporates multiple independent variables to fully capture the determinants of education spending. The results of this study …

The Effects Of The Affordable Care Act’S Individual Mandate On Ethnic And Racial Minorities, Zack Cyr

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper examines the quantitative impact of the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) individual mandate on health insurance coverage rates. This study will include race, ethnicity, and immigration status into a conventional model for predicting insurance coverage rates. This will illustrate the groups in the US population that may have been most influenced by the individual mandate, and potentially experienced the largest changes in coverage rates under the ACA. The data utilized in this research is in two pools, 2010-2011 and 2013-2014, as these are the years preceding the ACA’s implementation and directly after. The results reveal that while there was …

Effects Of Globalization On Inequality In Latin America, Andrew T. Kebalka

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper explores the relationship between globalization and inequality in Latin American countries. The study uses a number of different globalization indicators in conjunction with the globalization index developed by Dreher (2006). The study works to identify whether globalization has effect income equality and whether specific components of globalization have a greater magnitude of impact on inequality over others within the region. The conclusion of the study is that GDP per capita, foreign direct investment, and trade intensity have the greatest effects on income inequality.

Banking Subsector Output And Real Gdp Growth In The United States: A Time Series Analysis, Alexander Ellwanger

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This study investigates which variables in the banking subsector in the United States may have a statistically significant relationship with Real GDP. Taking into consideration the Bureau of Economic Analysis method of calculating banking output from 2004, this study carefully evaluates key variables that contribute to the banking sector and whether these key variables are statistically significant in any way that can help guide investors, policymakers, and the government in the growing challenge to maintain economic stability in the United States. This study found that there was a statistically significant relationship between Tier 1 Risk Based Capital and Real GDP …

Corruption’S Impact On Government Health And Education Expenditures, Shaun Rolph

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

The purpose of this paper it to identify how corruption can impact government expenditures, specifically education as a percentage of GDP, educational as a percentage of total government expenditures, health as a percentage of GDP, and health as a percentage of total government expenditures. The independent variables in which will be used for this model are: Corruption Perception Index, Worldwide Governance Indicators, and Polity IV. Through the time period of 2005 to 2014, this research is a global panel study that looks at income group and regional analysis. Comparisons will be made from the correlation of the variables between country …

Evaluation Of Monetary, Fiscal And External Inflationary Sources In Nigeria, Samson A. Aladejare

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

This study focuses on evaluating the monetary, fiscal and external inflationary sources in Nigeria. The Auto-Regressive Distributive Lag estimation technique was adapted to capture these effects. Empirical findings of the study showed that overall, the main determining cause of inflation in both short run and long run periods in Nigeria, are more of monetary and external factors and less of fiscal sources. Specifically, the problem of inflation in Nigeria appears to be more of structural phenomenon than monetary in the short run. However, in the long run, combinations of monetary and external factors tend to be the major cause of …

Land Tenure, Governance And Accountability In Nigeria: The Implications On Food Production To Feed The Present And The Future, Abiodun E. Obayelu, Aisha O. Arowolo, Olatokunbo H. Osinowo

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

Land is very vital for agricultural production, and for any nation that wants to be self-food sufficient. Different land reforms have taken place in Nigeria since 1960 with the aim of facilitating access to agricultural land, and make the nation self-sufficient in food production, but little changes have only been recorded. Bureaucracy by approving authorities in practice in communities where land is situated still hinders land acquisition for agricultural investment. This study therefore analyzes land policy, governance and accountability and draw out some implications on food production in Nigeria. The percentage of arable land to the total land area was …

Internal Control Activities As A Tool For Financial Management In The Public Sector: A Case Study Of Ghana Post Company Limited, Kwakye E. Agyapong

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

The case, Ghana Post Company Limited, allows for the observation of internal control activities as a tool for financial management in the public sector. The objective of the research is to examine the control environment of the Ghana Post Company to ensure there is segregation of duties, proper information and communication between employees and management; and monitoring of the policies implemented by management. The sample size of 36 included individuals from all of the departments within the company. The departments are Auditing and Finance, Human Resource, Mail and Parcels, and Financial Services. The work established had continued lapses in the …

Examining Renewable Energy And Economic Growth: Evidence From 22 Oecd Countries, David Neitzel

Honors Program Theses

A growing amount of electricity is produced from renewable sources. For this reason, it is important to understand the effect that this developing industry has on economic growth. This paper examines this relationship between economic growth and renewable energy consumption within a multivariate framework using a panel of 22 OECD countries over the period 1995-2012. The results of the Fully-Modified Least Squares regression indicate a statistically significant, albeit small, negative relationship between real GDP and renewable energy. Granger Causality tests indicate bidirectional causality running between GDP and renewable energy. The small effect of renewable energy on growth implies that policies …

An Outlay Equivalence Analysis Of South African Households, Samuel Peevey

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

A significant amount of evidence suggests that gender inequality in the developing world negatively impacts women and girls’ health, education and future wage potential. This thesis investigates whether households in South Africa discriminated against their girl children, in favor of their boy children. Additionally, I will investigate whether household heads favored children matching their own sex. Using the 1^st wave of the National Income Dynamics Study and Angus Deaton’s outlay-equivalence ratio method, I will estimate the impact, 8 age and sex categories have on their household’s adult goods expenditure. I found statistically significant but practically insignificant evidence, from a …

Growth Performance Of Transition Countries After 25 Years, Alena Kalodzitsa

Masters Theses

The present study provides with the most recent summary of growth performance in transition countries after 25 years since the change of the regime. The empirical analysis estimates growth, applying Generalized Least Squares (GLS) estimation technique using a panel of 26 transition countries for the period of 25 transition years (1990-2014). Empirical findings of this study confirm that growth performance can be explained by the degree of structural reforms, stabilization, and initial conditions along with other factors (external growth, regional tensions, government expenditure, and oil balance). Even if initial conditions are important for growth, its influence consistently declines.

The transition …

Accounting For Locational, Temporal, And Physical Similarity Of Residential Sales In Mass Appraisal Modeling: The Development And Application Of Geographically, Temporally, And Characteristically Weighted Regression, Paul E. Bidanset, Michael Mccord, John R. Lombard, Peadar Davis, William J. Mccluskey

School of Public Service Faculty Publications

Geographically weighted regression (GWR) has been recognized in the assessment community as a viable automated valuation model (AVM) to help overcome, at least in part, modeling hurdles associated with location, such as spatial heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation of error terms. Although previous researchers have adjusted the GWR weights matrix to also weight by time of sale or by structural similarity of properties in AVMs, the research described in this paper is the first that has done so by all three dimensions (i.e., location, structural similarity, and time of sale) simultaneously. Using 24 years of single-family residential sales in Fairfax, Virginia, …

Teaching Size And Power Properties Of Hypothesis Tests Through Simulations, Suleyman Taspinar, Osman Dogan

Publications and Research

In this study, we review the graphical methods suggested in Davidson and MacKinnon (Davidson, Russell, and James G. MacKinnon. 1998. “Graphical Methods for Investigating the Size and Power of Hypothesis Tests.” The Manchester School 66 (1): 1–26.) that can be used to investigate size and power properties of hypothesis tests for undergraduate and graduate econometrics courses. These methods can be used to assess finite sample properties of various hypothesis tests through simulation studies. In addition, these methods can be effectively used in classrooms to reinforce students’ understanding of basic hypothesis testing concepts such as Type I error, Type II error, …

Are Donald Trump And Hillary Clinton Controlling The Stock Market? An Analysis Of The 2016 Presidential Election's Impact On Stock Market Volatility, Julia Tambone

Scripps Senior Theses

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump ran highly controversial campaigns in the 2016 Presidential Election, which then leaves us with the question of what impact is this having on the current economy? Prior analysis of political influence on the stock market tells us that isolating political impact on the stock market is nearly impossible. However, there are clearly defined 4-year cycles in stock prices that seem to correspond with election years. In this paper, I create my own index of stocks in the four major U.S. industries and measure both day-to-day and intraday volatility in stock prices across three comparable time …

The Real Estate And Stock Market During The Great Depression: Construction Permit Growth As A Leading Economic Indicator For Stock Returns, Will Cresap

CMC Senior Theses

The 1929 stock market crash on Black Thursday, followed by the subsequent four-year period of extreme economic downturn, signifies an extremely profound piece of U.S. history. During this time, global economic productivity – measured by GDP – decreased while the U.S. unemployment rate increased staggeringly. Leveraging construction permits as a forward-looking measure of economic activity, I empirically evaluate the effect of construction permits – specifically, the lagged growth rate of monthly construction permits – and lagged monthly stock returns on monthly Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock returns. Lagged construction permit returns and lagged stock returns provide early indications …

Quantifying The Trenches: Machine Learning Applied To Nfl Offensive Lineman Valuation, Sean Pyne

CMC Senior Theses

There are 32 teams in the National Football League all competing to be the best by creating the strongest roster possible. The problem of evaluating talent has created extreme competition between teams in the form of a rookie draft and a fiercely competitive veteran free agent market. The difficulty with player evaluation is due to the noise associated with measuring a particular player’s value. The intent of this paper is to create an algorithm for identifying the inefficiencies in pricing in these player markets. In particular, this paper focuses on the veteran free agent market for offensive linemen in the …

How Mobile Phones Can Spark An Entrepreneurial Revolution, Alison Choe

Scripps Senior Theses

In the last decade, there has been an exponential rise in mobile phones in both developed and developed countries. In light of that, this paper investigates whether the expansion of such mobile networks leads to increased entrepreneurial activity. By conducting panel regressions, I find the degree to which various stages of entrepreneurial activity is affected by increased mobile phone subscription rates. I use data from 80 countries from 2007 to 2015 and parse out the different effects between developing and developed countries, and between males and females. I find that larger mobile networks encourage entrepreneurship, particularly in the early stages, …

How Does The Million Baht Village Fund Impact Fertility In Thailand?, Kaci Felstet

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

This study evaluates the impact of Thailand’s Million Baht Village Fund program on household fertility decisions. Thailand’s fertility rates are alarmingly low and it is imperative to recognize the unintended consequences a microfinance program may have on fertility choices within Thailand. Using panel data from pre- and post-program years, this research identifies the change in number of babies in a household associated with getting a microloan from the Village Fund program. The quasi-experimental nature of the program and an instrumental variable model with fixed effects identifies a negative relationship between the number of babies within families and participation in the …

Robert Parker’S Wine Advocate And The Consequential Pricing Of Provençal Wines, Gweneth Marter

Scripps Senior Theses

Robert Parker is an esteemed, somewhat controversial wine-critic. Since 1978, Parker has assigned every wine he tastes a score between 50 and 100. He uses this method to communicate to both consumers and producers his opinion of the quality, taste, and aging potential of the wine. Between the years 2005 and 2015, Robert Parker graded 115 wines from the French region of Provence. The goal of this thesis is to determine whether and to what extent Robert Parker’s grades affect the price of wine. Through descriptive statistics and regression analysis of Robert Parker’s grade and year of production on the …

Compensating Against Turnover: Managers' Talent Retention Decisions In Major League Baseball Under A Budget Constraint, Emma Knoesen

Scripps Senior Theses

From 1997 to 1999 and 2003 to the present, Major League Baseball has had a luxury tax on high payroll teams. This paper analyzes the impact of the tax as a budget constraint on teams’ ability to reward and retain high performing players. In contrast to other papers, we use wins above replacement (WAR), a popular sabermetrics statistic, to measure performance. Using this metric, we quantify the number of top performers, how this performance is rewarded with salary, and how salary impacts players’ mobility decisions. We conclude that when using WAR, the distribution of performance is not heavy tailed and …

On Estimating Market Microstructure Noise Variance, Yingjie Dong, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the market microstructure noise-variance estimation of high-frequency stock prices. Based on the Hansen and Lunde (2006) approach, we propose estimates using subsampling method at different time scales. We conduct a Monte Carlo study to compare our method against others in the literature. Our results show that our proposed estimates have lower (absolute) mean error and root mean-squared error, and their performance is quite stable at different time scales.

A Multivariate Stochastic Unit Root Model With An Application To Derivative Pricing, Offer Lieberman, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper extends recent findings of Lieberman and Phillips (2014) on stochastic unit root (STUR) models to a multivariate case including asymptotic theory for estimation of the model's parameters. The extensions are useful for applications of STUR modeling and because they lead to a generalization of the Black-Scholes formula for derivative pricing. In place of the standard assumption that the price process follows a geometric Brownian motion, we derive a new form of the Black-Scholes equation that allows for a multivariate time varying coefficient element in the price equation. The corresponding formula for the value of a European-type call option …

Changes In Depressive Symptoms Among Older Adults With Multiple Chronic Conditions: Role Of Positive And Negative Social Supports, Sangnam Ahn, Seonghoon Kim, Hongmei Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Depression severely affects older adults in the United States. As part of the social environment, significant social support was suggested to ameliorate depression among older adults. We investigate how varying forms of social support moderate depressive symptomatology among older adults with multiple chronic conditions (MCC). Data were analyzed using a sample of 11,400 adults, aged 65 years or older, from the 2006–2012 Health and Retirement Study. The current study investigated the moderating effects of positive or negative social support from spouse, children, other family, and friends on the association between MCC and depression. A linear mixed model with repeated measures …

Reducing Extreme Poverty Through Skill Training For Industry Job Placement, Abu S. Shonchoy, Selim Raihan, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

Vocational training programs aimed at rapidly growing sectors have the potential to reduce skills gaps, improve income and employment potentials. Such programs often been unsuccessful, because they are not driven by industry-demand and market-linkages, and they are not well targeted. Our rigorous RCT-based impact study shows that a targeted training-program offered to poor rural households in northwest Bangladesh has significant effects on employment in garment factories. Data from a follow-up — six and twelve months’ after the intervention — shows a statistically significant and large employment effect of the training program when it is combined with the stipend or internship.This …

Racial And Ethnic Differences In Receipt Of Immediate Breast Reconstruction Surgery: Do Hospital Characteristics Matter?, Jaya Shankar Khushalani

Theses and Dissertations

Immediate Breast Reconstruction Surgery (IBRS) is associated with better quality of life among women who undergo a mastectomy. Despite insurance coverage for IBRS, utilization of IBRS remains low. Data from publicly available sources for 2010-2012 are used to examine the association between hospital characteristics receipt of IBRS by patients. Minority-serving status, low bed size, for-profit ownership, non-teaching status, high competition, low density of plastic surgeons in the market and non-metropolitan location are associated with lower likelihood of receipt of IBRS.

Racial and ethnic minorities are less likely to receive IBRS. A mixed effects logistic regression model with interactions between Black/Hispanic …

Empathy Conservation: Experiments Suggest A Need For More Attention In Policymaking, Natalia V. Czap, Hans J. Czap, Gary Lynne, Mark E. Burbach

CAFIO: Policy Research Group Policy Pagers

One of the major challenges of environmental policy with regard to conservation is that it must often rely on voluntary and non-selfish actions of individuals. Traditionally policy makers rely on direct regulation and financial incentives, but both approaches face problems. Regulations may lead to resentment and the costs of perfect enforcement are prohibitively high. Financial incentives can be perverse and may lead to unintended consequences, including crowding out of intrinsic motivation. In addition, behavioral economics and economic psychology studies demonstrate that the assumptions of the neoclassical economic models (such as self-interest only, rationality, and willpower) on which the policy design …

Renewable Portfolio Standards May Reduce Green Energy Used In Electricity Production, Karina Schoengold, Suparna Bhattacharya, Konstantinos Giannakas

CAFIO: Policy Research Group Policy Pagers

Rising energy prices, dependence on foreign oil supplies, and consequences of climate change have prompted governments worldwide to initiate policies to shift from fossil fuels to renewables for electricity generation. One of the most commonly used policy instruments is the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), which requires electricity providers to procure green energy (e.g., wind, solar, biomass) for a portion of their electricity supplies. To date, RPS has been a state-mandated program in the United States. As of February 2017, 29 states, Washington DC, and 3 territories have adopted RPS policies.

The Economic Impacts Of Forest Timber Methods In Washington State: A Hedonic Approach, Kaleb Javier

All Master's Theses

Washington State is one of the nation’s leaders in timber production. This paper establishes literature gap regarding the economic impacts of forest timber management methods. In this research, I employ a data set of 170,141 home sales across eleven counties of western Washington to estimate the impact that even-age and uneven-age forest cutting methods have on the local real-estate market. I estimate two sets of hedonic fixed effect regression models to control for omitted variable bias and spatial autocorrelation. The results show statistically significant impacts on property values for both cutting methods, adding important information for forest managers.

Are Oil Prices Important To U.S. Manufacturers?, Austin Perez Schoff

CMC Senior Theses

Very little has been written about the effect that oil prices have on manufacturing output in the United States. This paper aims to shed light about the effect of oil prices, oil imports, and GDP on U.S. manufacturing output through a four-variable vector autoregression and explain the timing of these shocks through impulse response functions. Empirical results find that oil prices are significant in determining manufacturing output, but manufacturing output is also significant in determining oil prices.