Econometrics Commons^™

Exploring The Budget Deficit-Economic Growth Nexus: New Evidence From Ghana, Kojo Oppong Nkrumah, Emmanuel Orkoh, Augustine Mensah Owusu

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

In this paper, we combine Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with trend analysis to assess the relationship between Ghana’s budget deficit and economic growth from 2000 to 2015 using quarterly data. The trend analysis reveals that since 2000, years of high budget deficit were usually followed by years of low economic growth and vice versa. This phenomenon was pronounced in 2009, when the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate fell from 7.3 percent in 2008 to 4 percent in 2009, following an increase in the budget deficit from 8 percent in 2007 to 11.5 percent in 2008. The same phenomenon …

An Assessment Of Federal Outlay On Pivotal Growth Induced Sectors In Nigeria, Samson Adeniyi Aladejare, Eche Emmanuel, Charles Edobor Umonda

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

This study analyses government capital and recurrent spending outlays on sectors (education, health, defense agriculture and transport and communication) believed to be critical to the growth of the economy, for the period 1980 to 2014. The Error Correction Method was adopted to analyze the short-run impact of each spending division on the prosperity of the economy. The disaggregation into capital and recurrent expenditure was done to gauge the impact each has economic growth. Empirical findings of the study reveal that though capital outlays on the sectors concerned have been more significant than recurrent spending towards achieving the goal of economic …

Motivations For Luxury Consumption: Insights From Tunisia’S Emerging Market, Pranjal Gupta,, Mouna Zaghdoudi

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

Luxury consumption and the desire for luxury are well-accepted phenomena. Myriad studies have documented the pervasiveness of the luxury market in the West and the high growth and strong potential of Asian luxury markets. It is also evident that as resources have grown in a region, luxury consumption and the desire for luxury products have followed. Nevertheless, the need for more far-reaching studies that explore emerging markets are important to understand the differences in how luxury may penetrate these markets, given variations in resources and culture. This paper investigates a number of factors that may contribute to the emergence of …

Challenges Of Respecting Riparian Rights Around Hydroelectric Dams In Cameroon Since 1949, Séverin Nwaha

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

The impact of electric energy on socio-economic development has attracted the attention of all categories of people in society. This is because of the role power plays in the economic and industrial sectors of any country. Public authorities seem to be more concerned with protecting capitalist interests at the detriment of the riparian population. Despite regulations and legal provisions, authorities are still not able to implement a rigorous policy in this sector in Cameroon due to administrative bottle necks, among other factors. Furthermore, the existence of multiple regulatory and management bodies creates confusion. Legislation related to this issue is usually …

Mobile Facial Recognition System For Patient Identification In Medical Emergencies For Developing Economies, Kingsley C. Nwosu

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

Medical emergencies are part of the common daily lives of people in developing and under-developed economies. Frequently, some of these medical emergencies end up tragically for many people in these countries due to many reasons, among which is the delivery of medical treatment when the patient is uncommunicative or unresponsive. The ability of the attending medical personnel to access a patient’s medical history is critical for the quality of the treatment rendered. Unfortunately, today many lives are lost in low income economies during medical emergencies due to lack or inaccessibility of a patient’s medical information. One of the major contributing …

Detecting Stock Market Bubbles: A Price-To-Earnings Approach, Austin F. Murphy

Honors Theses

To this day, economists argue about the existence of stock market bubbles. The literature review for this paper observes the analysis of four reputable bubble tests in an attempt to provide ample qualitative proof for the existence of bubbles. The first obstacle for creating an effective bubble detection test is the difficulty of estimating true fundamental values for equities. Without adequate estimations for the fundamental values of equities, the deviation between actual price and fundamental price is impossible to observe or estimate. Additionally, these tests are reliant on strong underlying assumptions, which tend to cloud results.

This thesis applies a …

Natural Disasters, Foreign Aid And Economic Development, Valeriu Tomescu

Honors Theses and Capstones

No abstract provided.

The Impact Of State-Provided Paid Family Leave On Wages: Examining The Role Of Gender, Aimee Samantha Abrams Widdicombe

Scripps Senior Theses

The U.S. is the only OECD country that does not offer any form of federal paid parental leave. Only three states—California, New Jersey and Rhode Island—have state-provided paid leave policies; implemented in 2004, 2009 and 2014, respectively. Through descriptive statistics and difference-in-difference-in-difference regression analyses of the wages of women and men of childbearing age (19-45 years) in those three states, we assess whether the paid leave programs have effected wages, and whether these effects vary depending on gender. Our results show that wages of women of childbearing age saw negligible net effects post-policy in policy states, although statistically insignificant. On …

Adventures At The Zero Lower Bound: A Bayesian Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Analysis Of Monetary Policy Uncertainty Shocks, Rachel M. Doehr

CMC Senior Theses

Using survey-based measures of future interest rate expectations from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we examine the relationship between monetary policy uncertainty, captured as the dispersion of interest rate forecasts, and fluctuations in real economic activity and core inflation. We use a flexible time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model to clearly isolate the dynamic effects of shocks to monetary policy uncertainty. To further study possible a possible nonlinear relationship between monetary policy uncertainty and the macroeconomic aggregates, we extract the impulse-response functions (IRF’s) estimated at each quarter in the time series, and use a …

A Sustainability-Based Project Selection Algorithm: Socio-Technical-Economic Project Selection (Steps) Algorithm, Bharathi Bhattu

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

Multi-dimensional aspects play a vital role in the task of project-decision making. Environmental effects are to be considered in addition to other technical and non-technical aspects in order to avoid undue environmental damage. This current work introduces a new decision-making algorithm (Socio-Technical-Economic Project Selection or STEPS) that is demonstrated with the use of RCA (recycled concrete aggregate) as riprap for slope stabilization and erosion control which leaches chemical arsenic when in contact with water. Arsenic has long been recognized for its lethal properties. The main intention of introducing this new algorithm is to use sustainability concepts of social, technical, and …

Economic Assimilation For Immigrants In Chile: An Employment Convergence Analysis, Emily C. Long

Scripps Senior Theses

Blending migration studies and labor economics, this thesis explores the economic implications of immigrant assimilation in Chile by using probit models to test for employment convergence and labor market convergence between immigrant groups and native Chileans. Using census data from 1992 and 2002, we find significant differences in the employment and labor force participation rates for these demographic groups, affected by the immigrants’ gender, decade of arrival, and country of origin. We see evidence of the nascent care industry in Chile, as well as the implications of the Chilean visa system and employment contracts. Additionally, we see employment probabilities fall …

New Distribution Theory For The Estimation Of Structural Break Point In Mean, Liang Jiang, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Based on the Girsanov theorem, this paper first obtains the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of structural break point in a continuous time model. The exact distribution is asymmetric and tri-modal, indicating that the estimator is seriously biased. These two properties are also found in the finite sample distribution of the least squares estimator of structural break point in the discrete time model. The paper then builds a continuous time approximation to the discrete time model and develops an in-fill asymptotic theory for the least squares estimator. The obtained in-fill asymptotic distribution is asymmetric and tri-modal and delivers …

Citizen Wellbeing And Gdp: Towards More Appropriate Measures Of Namibia's Success And Progress, Justine Braby Dr, Jessica-Jane Lavelle, Johannes Mulunga, Newman Nekwaya, Fikameni Mathias, Angula Angula

Journal of Sustainable Social Impact

Developing nations like Namibia are aiming to industrialize much like developed nations and use the gross domestic product to measure their progress. However, this development path has been largely unsustainable. For Namibia to develop into a sustainable society, a different approach is needed. This study aimed to find entry points toward such an approach. Surveys were conducted in Windhoek, Namibia's capital, to measure human well-being. Generally, as is expected in a developing country, well-being correlated positively along the income line. However, the indicators did illustrate that a more holistic measure would go a long way toward more effective development planning …

Ballot-Box Environmentalism Across The Golden State: How Geography Influences California Voters’ Demand For Environmental Public Goods, William Skyler Lewis

Pomona Senior Theses

In California, voters frequently face ballot propositions dealing directly or indirectly with environmental protection. Records of these votes provide powerful evidence of the character of voters’ demand and willingness-to-pay for environmental public goods (e.g., air quality, watershed ecosystem services, parks and recreation), and have been used in past environmental econometrics research to produce aggregated income and price effect estimates. Using neighborhood-level voting records on seven environmental-related ballot propositions in California between 2002 and 2010, this econometric study investigates the nature of voters’ demand for environmental public goods, focusing on the effect of household income on pro-environment voting. Unlike previous studies, …

How Cutting The Cost Of Using A Bank Affects Household’S Behavior Of Remittance Transfers: Evidence From A Field Experiment In Rural Malawi, Chuyuan Lu

CMC Senior Theses

Using a randomized experiment in rural Malawi, this paper finds that providing information on mobile bank buses’ services leads to a higher probability of adopting savings accounts in the treatment group. Households in the treated villages are 3.06 percentage points more likely to adopt savings accounts than households in the control group. Second, the information treatment leads to an increase of in the probability of households receiving remittances in the treated villages, as well as an increase in the amount of remittances received. In particular, the effect is strongest for households that lived at least three kilometers away from the …

Decrypting Bitcoin Prices And Adoption Rates Using Google Search, Varun Puri

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper, I analyze Bitcoin price formation and adoption rates at a global and national level. In determining Bitcoin prices, I consider contemporaneous and lagged values of traditional determinants of currencies, such as inflation and industrial production, and digital currency specific factors, primarily public interest. Using monthly time-series data across five years (2011 – 2016), I find that global public interest in Bitcoin, measured by Google searches for the keyword ‘Bitcoin,’ has a positive and significant impact on Bitcoin prices. I extend the analysis to a country level by employing a proxy for adoption rates, represented by the number …

Escaping The Poverty Trap: Formal Savings And Asset Accumulation In Rural Malawi, Audrey Breitwieser

CMC Senior Theses

Formal savings accounts can be an effective device for households to accumulate assets over time and thus have more funds available to better afford an expensive one-time payment, in the form of either addressing an economic shock or paying for an important life event. I explore this relationship using a field experiment in rural Malawi conducted from 2008-2010, and find that adoption of a formal savings account has no effect on the frequency of economic shocks that a household experiences, nor does it affect how households respond to shocks. However, I find that account adoption does significantly increase the frequency …

"And The Winner Is..." Predicting Presidential Elections, Amanda Lin

CMC Senior Theses

This paper establishes a model to forecast the Presidential election outcomes, particularly the 2016 United States Presidential Election by analyzing two distinctive approaches: predicting election wins through voting function, and using approval ratings as proxy for votes. I examine and replicate previous models for vote share of the Democratic Party and of the government for elections from 1948 to 2012. Then, I construct a model for approval ratings based on economic and non-economic variables. My findings have direct implications for forecasting elections and the political business cycle.

"I Voted": Examining The Impact Of Compulsory Voting On Voter Turnout, Nina A. Kamath

CMC Senior Theses

Over the past few decades, falling voter turnout rates have induced governments to adopt compulsory voting laws, in order to mitigate issues such as the socioeconomic voter gap and to bring a broader spectrum of voters into the fold. This paper presents evidence that the introduction of mandatory voting laws increases voter turnout rates by 13 points within a particular country through an entity- and time-fixed effect panel model. Moreover, it includes a discussion of the implications of adopting mandatory voting policies within the United States, finding that compelling citizens to vote would have increased participation rates to over 90 …

Bayesian Spatial Bivariate Panel Probit Estimation, Badi Baltagi, Peter H. Egger, Michaela Kesina

Center for Policy Research

This paper formulates and analyzes Bayesian model variants for the analysis of systems of spatial panel data with binary dependent variables. The paper focuses on cases where latent variables of cross-sectional units in an equation of the system contemporaneously depend on the values of the same and, eventually, other latent variables of other cross-sectional units. Moreover, the paper discusses cases where time-invariant effects are exogenous versus endogenous. Such models may have numerous applications in industrial economics, public economics, or international economics. The paper illustrates that the performance of Bayesian estimation methods for such models is supportive of their use with …

Semiparametric Estimation Of Partially Linear Dynamic Panel Data Models With Fixed Effects, Liangjun Su, Yonghui Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we study a partially linear dynamic panel data model with fixed effects, where either exogenous or endogenous variables or both enter the linear part, and the lagged-dependent variable together with some other exogenous variables enter the nonparametric part. Two types of estimation methods are proposed for the first-differenced model. One is composed of a semiparametric GMM estimator for the finite-dimensional parameter θ and a local polynomial estimator for the infinite-dimensional parameter m based on the empirical solutions to Fredholm integral equations of the second kind, and the other is a sieve IV estimate of the parametric and …

Meritocracy Voting: Measuring The Unmeasurable, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Learned societies commonly carry out selection processes to add new fellows to an existing fellowship. Criteria vary across societies but are typically based on subjective judgments concerning the merit of individuals who are nominated for fellowships. These subjective assessments may be made by existing fellows as they vote in elections to determine the new fellows or they may be decided by a selection committee of fellows and officers of the society who determine merit after reviewing nominations and written assessments. Human judgment inevitably plays a central role in these determinations and, notwithstanding its limitations, is usually regarded as being a …

A Tale Of Two Option Markets: Pricing Kernels And Volatility Risk, Zhaogang Song, Dacheng Xiu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using both S&P 500 option and recently introduced VIX option prices, we study pricing kernels and their dependence on multiple volatility factors. We first propose nonparametric estimates of marginal pricing kernels, conditional on the VIX and the slope of the variance swap term structure. Our estimates highlight the state-dependence nature of the pricing kernels. In particular, conditioning on volatility factors, the pricing kernel of market returns exhibit a downward sloping shape up to the extreme end of the right tail. Moreover, the volatility pricing kernel features a striking U-shape, implying that investors have high marginal utility in both high and …

Shrinkage Estimation Of Dynamic Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects, Xun Lu, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider the problem of determining the number of factors and selecting the proper regressors in linear dynamic panel data models with interactive fixed effects. Based on the preliminary estimates of the slope parameters and factors a la Bai (2009) and Moon and Weidner (2015), we propose a method for simultaneous selection of regressors and factors and estimation through the method of adaptive group Lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator). We show that with probability approaching one, our method can correctly select all relevant regressors and factors and shrink the coefficients of irrelevant regressors and redundant factors to zero. …

Causes And Consequences Of The Protestant Reformation, Sascha O. Becker, Steven Pfaff, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

The Protestant Reformation is one of the defining events of the last millennium. Nearly 500 years after the Reformation, its causes and consequences have seen a renewed interest in the social sciences. Research in economics, sociology, and political science increasingly uses detailed individual-level, city-level, and regional-level data to identify drivers of the adoption of the Reformation, its diffusion pattern, and its socioeconomic consequences. This survey takes stock of the research so far, tries to point out what we know and what we do not know, and which are the most promising areas for future research.

Payment Scheme Self-Selection In The Credence Goods Market: An Experimental Study, Hernan Bejarano, Ellen P. Green, Stephen Rassenti

ESI Working Papers

Given heterogeneity in expert behavior across payment schemes in credence goods markets, it becomes important to understand the consequences of payment scheme selection. To study the effect on customer well being of expert self-selection, we recruited subjects to participate in a real-effort credence good laboratory market. Experts were either randomly assigned or faced with the choice of three payment schemes: fee-for-service, salary, and capitation. We found that experts who selected fee-for-service payment resulted in customers with significantly worse outcomes in comparison with experts who had been randomly assigned to fee-for-service. In contrast, experts who selected salary payment did not change …

Bringing A Natural Experiment Into The Laboratory: The Measurement Of Individual Risk Attitudes, Zuzana Brokesova, Cary Deck, Jana Peliova

ESI Working Papers

Controlled laboratory experiments have become a generally accepted method for studying economic behavior, but there are two issues that regularly arise with such work. The first pertains to the ability to generalize experimental results outside the laboratory. While laboratory experiments are typically designed to mimic naturally occurring situations, ceteris paribus comparisons are rare. Using data from a promotional campaign by a bank and a matching laboratory experiment, we find similar patterns of risk taking behavior controlling for gender and age. The second issue pertains to the impact that the payment procedure in an experiment has on observed risk taking behavior. …

The Impact Of Taxes And Wasteful Government Spending On Giving, Roman M. Sheremeta, Neslihan Uler

ESI Working Papers

We examine the impact of taxes and wasteful government spending on charitable giving. In our model, the government collects a flat-rate tax on income net of donations and wastes part of the tax revenue before redistribution. The model provides theoretical predictions which we test in a framed field experiment. The results of the experiment show that the tax rate has a weak and insignificant effect on giving. The degree of waste, however, has a large, negative and significant effect on giving, with the relationship moderated by the curvature in the utility function.

Ambiguity Framed, Mark Schneider, Jonathan W. Leland, Nathaniel Wilcox

ESI Working Papers

In his exposition of subjective expected utility theory, Savage (1954) proposed that the Allais paradox could be reduced if it were recast into a format which made the appeal of the independence axiom of expected utility theory more transparent. Recent studies consistently find support for this prediction. We consider a salience-based choice model which explains this frame-dependence of the Allais paradox and derive the novel prediction that the same type of presentation format which was found to reduce Allais-style violations of expected utility theory will also reduce Ellsberg-style violations of subjective expected utility theory since that format makes the appeal …

Random Expected Utility And Certainty Equivalents: Mimicry Of Probability Weighting Functions, Nathaniel Wilcox

ESI Working Papers

For simple prospects of the kind routinely used for certainty equivalent elicitation, random expected utility preferences imply a conditional expectation function that can mimic deterministic rank dependent preferences. That is, an agent with random expected utility preferences can have mean certainty equivalents that look exactly like rank dependent probability weighting functions of the inverse-s shape discussed by Quiggin (1982) and later advocated by Tversky and Kahneman (1992) and other scholars. It seems that certainty equivalents cannot nonparametrically identify preferences, at least not in every relevant sense, since their conditional expectation depends on assumptions concerning the source and nature of their …