Econometrics Commons^™

Can Parallel Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?, John F. Roberts

Honors Theses

Commodity price uncertainty imposes large costs on society. On the macro level, it results in sudden and unexpected shifts in current account imbalances and real GDP volatility, while on the micro level, it leads to allocation inefficiencies. Accurate price forecasts have the potential to remove some of this uncertainty and allow for a more efficient distribution of resources, and thus, an increase in social welfare. Despite the obvious gains to be had from accurate commodity price forecasts, few models have been able to deliver these results. Chen, Rogoff and Rossi (2008) were the first to find a promising link between …

Do Good Things Come Out After Recessions? The Productivity-Business Cycle Interaction, Michael M. Alba, Lawrence B. Dacuycuy

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

For the past two decades, the Philippines has endured a wave of recessions, events that technically represent fluctuations in economic activity. While some of these recessions have been shallow, resulting in minor deviations from where our economy should be, some have been deep and devastating like the ones that occurred during the last years of the Marcos regime.

Bonds, Stocks Or Dollars? Do Voters Care About Capital Markets In Brazil And Mexico, Tony Petros Spanakos, Lucio Remuzat Renno Jr.

Department of Political Science and Law Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

How does vote intention in presidential elections vary according to the economic conditions of a country, especially indicators of the financial market? Does the state of the economy, both its fundamentals as well as capital market, affect variation in candidates’ percentage of vote intention in national polls? This paper tests how economic indicators influence vote intention in presidential elections in two emerging markets: Brazil and Mexico. The presidential elections of 1994, 1998, 2002, and 2006 in Brazil and 2000 and 2006 in Mexico are analyzed using all poll returns for each electoral period and corresponding economic data. The paper finds …

Semiparametric Cointegrating Rank Selection, Xu Cheng, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Some convenient limit properties of usual information criteria are given for cointegrating rank selection. Allowing for a non-parametric short memory component and using a reduced rank regression with only a single lag, standard information criteria are shown to be weakly consistent in the choice of cointegrating rank provided the penalty coefficient C(n) -> infinity and C(n)/n -> 0 as n -> 8. The limit distribution of the AIC criterion, which is inconsistent, is also obtained. The analysis provides a general limit theory for semiparametric reduced rank regression under weakly dependent errors. The method does not require the specification of a …

Asymptotics And Bootstrap For Transformed Panel Data Regressions, Liangjun Su, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper investigates the asymptotic properties of quasi-maximum likelihood estimators for transformed random effects models where both the response and (some of) the covariates are subject to transformations for inducing normality, flexible functional form, homoscedasticity, and simple model structure. We develop a quasi maximum likelihood-type procedure for model estimation and inference. We prove the consistency and asymptotic normality of the parameter estimates, and propose a simple bootstrap procedure that leads to a robust estimate of the variance-covariance matrix. Monte Carlo results reveal that these estimates perform well in finite samples, and that the gains by using bootstrap procedure for inference …

Capital Stock Revisions Theory Data, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• No bias in current price stock due to quality adjustment, an unpublished set of handwritten research notes and mathematical tables prepared by Anwar Shaikh, PhD, on May 30, 2009.
• Measurement of capital, a manuscript file folder label inscribed with the identification code NA-23-64, prepared by Anwar Shaikh, PhD, on June 5, 2026.
• Mathematical formulation of capital stock chain indexes and valuation identities, an unpublished set of handwritten equations and index number derivations prepared by Anwar Shaikh, PhD.

Semiparametric Prevalence Estimation From A Two-Phase Survey, Denis H. Y. Leung, J Qin

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies a semi-parametric method for estimating the prevalence of a binary outcome using a two-phase survey. The motivation for a two-phase survey is, due to time, money and ethical considerations, it is impossible to carry out comprehensive evaluation on all subjects in a large random sample of the population. Rather, a relatively inexpensive "screening test" is given to all subjects in the random sample and only individuals more likely to have a positive outcome (cases) will be selected for a further "gold standard" test to verify the outcome. Therefore, individuals with verified outcome form a non-random sample from …

Markov Switching Var Model Of Speculative Pressure: An Application To The Asian Financial Crisis, Gregorio Iii Alfredo Vargas

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Markov switching models with time-varying transition probabilities address the limitations of the earlier methods in the early warning system literature on currency crises. Most of the Markov switching models in the literature are largely based on univariate models of exchange rate fluctuations. In this thesis, the components of the index of speculative pressure are modeled using the Markov Switching VAR with time-varying transition probabilities of Martinez Peria (2002). Two approaches, both of which are derived from this model, are taken to determine the probability of a currency crisis: the probability of a turbulent regime and the expected value of the …

Multivariate Garch Models For The Greater China Stock Markets, Xiaojun Song

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This paper reviews the commonly used multivariate GARCH models and uses the daily data of the four Greater China region stock markets, namely Hongkong, Shanghai,Shenzhen, and Singapore, and data of Japan as one ex-ogenous variable to investigate the volatility and shocks spillover behavior and to establish the market linkage among the four markets. We find that the volatility spillover between Shanghai and Shenzhen is obvious and correlation contagion is detected. Conditional variance and conditional correlations are time varying and dynamic which conforms to the arguments in most of the literature. Shanghai and Shenzhen present a very high correlation level during …

A Robust Lm Test For Spatial Error Components, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper presents a modified LM test of spatial error components, which is shown to be robust against distributional misspecifications and spatial layouts. The proposed test differs from the LM test of Anselin (2001) by a term in the denominators of the test statistics. This term disappears when either the errors are normal, or the variance of the diagonal elements of the product of spatial weights matrix and its transpose is zero or approaches to zero as sample size goes large. When neither is true, as is often the case in practice, the effect of this term can be significant …

Radio Spectrum And The Disruptive Clarity Of Ronald Coase, Thomas W. Hazlett, David Porter, Vernon Smith

ESI Working Papers

In the Federal Communications Commission, Ronald Coase exposed deep foundations via normative argument buttressed by astute historical observation. The government controlled scarce frequencies, issuing sharply limited use rights. Spillovers were said to be otherwise endemic. Coase saw that Government limited conflicts by restricting uses; property owners perform an analogous function via the “price system.” The government solution was inefficient unless the net benefits of the alternative property regime were lower. Coase augured that the price system would outperform. His spectrum auction proposal was mocked by communications policy experts, opposed by industry interests, and ridiculed by policy makers. Hence, it took …

Go West Young Man: Self-Selection And Endogenous Property Rights, Taylor Jaworski, Bart J. Wilson

ESI Working Papers

If, as Hume argues, property is a self-referring custom of a group of people, then property rights depend on how that group forms and orders itself. In this paper we investigate how people construct a convention for property in an experiment in which groups of self-selected individuals can migrate between three geographically separate regions. We find that the absence of property rights clearly decreases wealth in our environment and that interest in establishing property rights is a key determinant of the decision to migrate to a new region. Theft is nearly eliminated among migrants, resulting in strong growth, and non-migrants …

A Centered Index Of Spatial Concentration: Axiomatic Approach With An Application To Population And Capital Cities, Filipe R. Campante, Quoc-Anh Do

Research Collection School Of Economics

We construct an axiomatic index of spatial concentration around a center or capital point of interest, a concept with wide applicability from urban economics, economic geography and trade, to political economy and industrial organization. We propose basic axioms (decomposability and monotonicity) and refinement axioms (order preservation, convexity, and local monotonicity) for how the index should respond to changes in the underlying distribution. We obtain a unique class of functions satisfying all these properties, defined over any n-dimensional Euclidian space: the sum of a decreasing, isoelastic function of individual distances to the capital point of interest, with specific boundaries for the …