Econometrics Commons^™

The Economic Costs Of Tax Policy Uncertainty: Implications For Fundamental Tax Reform, Seth H. Giertz, Jacob Feldman

Department of Economics: Faculty Publications

The U.S. faces tremendous short-term policy uncertainty, including about $5.4 trillion in tax increases over the next decade. These changes are set to take effect on January 1, 2013. It is unlikely that these changes will fully materialize, but what will happen is anyone’s guess. Over the long term, uncertainty also looms large since the U.S. federal tax system is expected to bring in far less revenue than Congress is projected to spend. In this paper, we detail the tax policy uncertainty that the U.S. faces and the economic literature to assess how this uncertainty may be affecting the economy. …

Essays In Inflation And Monetary Dynamics In Developing Countries, Simon K. Harvey

College of Business: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

This dissertation is consists of three essays. In the first essay, I analyze how the information contained in the disaggregate components of aggregate inflation helps improve the forecasts of the aggregate series using inflation data from Ghana. Direct univariate forecasting of the aggregate inflation data by an autoregressive (AR) model is used as the benchmark with which all autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA) and vector autoregressive (VAR) models of the disaggregates are compared. The results show that directly forecasting the aggregate series from the benchmark model is generally superior to aggregating forecasts from the disaggregate components. Additionally, including information from …

International Knowledge Flows And Technological Advance: The Role Of International Migration, Kacey N. Douglas

College of Business: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Immigration is a major aspect of globalization. As the world becomes increasingly integrated, it becomes important to learn more about the effects of immigration on global economic growth. According to Robert Solow’s long run growth model, technological advance is the only form of economic growth sustainable in the long run. Those who contribute to technological advance – highly skilled labor – however, increasingly emigrate from lesser developed to more developed countries in a process known as brain drain. This process has been shown to lead to a permanent increase in income and growth in the host country relative to the …

Impact Of Work Values And Individual Attributes On Citizenship And Task Performance: A Test In A Developing Country Context, Anil Chadrakumara

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

This study examined the impact of work values and individual characteristics on organizational citizenship behavior (OCB) and task performance (TP). Based on the arguments of Social Capital Theory, a theoretical foundation was developed to use work values as antecedents of OCB. Analyzing 416 responses from Sri Lankan manufacturing sector employees, it was found that gender and employment category were related to citizenship performance, while level of education was related to task performance. More importantly, the impact of work values (work norms, work ethics, and intrinsic values) on OCB was found to be more significant than that of demographic factors. Overall, …

Technology And The Export Behavior Of Small, Locally- Owned Firms: New Insight, Densil A. Williams

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

This paper investigates the relationship between technology and the export performance of small, locally-owned firms in the Jamaican economy. The literature argues that technology is an important variable in influencing the export performance of small firms given its technological ability to generate competitive advantage for the firm. However, the results from empirical studies are not always consistent. To investigate this issue, the paper uses survey data collected through face-to-face interviews of 92 exporters and non-exporters to estimate a logistic regression model of the firm’s export behavior. The results revealed that firm size, is the most critical factor that determines export …

Measuring Water Poverty Index In Urban Areas Of Punjab, Kanwal Zahra, Syed Hussain Haider, Afzal Mahmood, Sami Ullah

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

The urban population of Punjab is growing rapidly. It is projected that there will be a 25 to 30 percent increase in urban population by 2020. This rapid population increase is causing major problems in the efficient provision of urban services in these cities. To evaluate the effect of this population increase, this paper tries to produce an integrated assessment of water stress and scarcity, linking physical estimates of water availability with socioeconomic variables that reflect poverty, i.e., a Water Poverty Index. It is understood that poor households face the problem of the accessibility of potable water, and this results …

Supply Response, Exchange Rate And Domestic Price In Nigeria, Emmanuel C. Ani, Samson Adeniyi Aladejare

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the impact of exchange rate and domestic price on export trade in Nigeria. Firstly, based on the literature review and findings of the study in the area, the paper aligned itself within the premise of the traditionalist view which concludes that non-oil export trade in Nigeria is predicated by currency depreciation via lower export prices. Secondly, the introduction of domestic prices, alongside naira rate of exchange as major determinants of non–oil exports in Nigeria, has the implication of showing that currency devaluation could be used to improve the balance of payment …

The Us Financial Crisis, Emerging Markets And The Effects Of Imf Loans, Bridgette Bain

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

The main hypothesis of this paper is that emerging markets with outstanding debt from the IMF and their economies are more severely affected by shocks to the world than countries that do not undertake IMF debt. The effect that shocks have on these economies is also dependent upon the size of the debt borrowed. This paper analyzes the effects that outstanding IMF debt has on emerging markets. Essentially, it observes the responses of emerging markets to shocks in their economy when they are indebted to the IMF. We observe 35 emerging markets as defined by Dow Jones in 2010 and …

Industrial Diversity And Economic Performance: A Spatial Analysis, Hoa Phu Duy Tran

College of Business: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

This study examines the linkage between industrial diversity and economic growth in the 48 contiguous states of the United States.  The period of analysis is 1992 through 2009.  Five diversity indices are considered and economic growth is measured as the growth rate of nonfarm earnings.  Other variables thought to influence economic growth are included in the analysis.  They are the growth rate of nonfarm employment, capital, and farm earnings.  Tests for the endogeneity of variables are conducted and the need for instrumental variable estimation methods is demonstrated.

First, I consider multivariate model that relates nonfarm earnings growth to the diversity …