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Articles 61 - 90 of 111
Full-Text Articles in Econometrics
Analysis Of The Economic Impact Of Constructing A Nba Arena On The Host City, Grant Gilchrist
Analysis Of The Economic Impact Of Constructing A Nba Arena On The Host City, Grant Gilchrist
CMC Senior Theses
Using economic data collected from 24 different Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the US, this thesis investigates the impact of constructing a new National Basketball Association (NBA) arena on the host city’s economy. When a simplistic model is implemented, which does not control for other economic factors or individual subject heterogeneity, significantly positive economic impacts of arena construction are observed. However, when a more appropriate model specification is implemented that controls for economic activity and individual heterogeneity, these effects are no longer statistically significant. This comparative analysis ultimately highlights the importance of appropriate model specification and supports the conclusion that new …
Is Avocado Toast The Reason I'M Still Living With My Parents?, Brendan Macdonald
Is Avocado Toast The Reason I'M Still Living With My Parents?, Brendan Macdonald
CMC Senior Theses
Is avocado toast the reason that I am still living with my parents? In other words, does the consumption of avocado toast, or more specifically eating out in general, have any impact on one’s ability to be a homeowner. In May of 2017, an Australian real estate developer by the name of Tim Gurner was asked to provide advice to young people who could not afford to purchase a home. He responded by saying, “when I was trying to buy my first home, I wasn’t buying smashed avocado for $19 and four coffees at $4 each,” (Victor, 2017). While the …
Are Volatility Expectations In Different Countries Interdependent? A Data-Driven Solution To Structural Var Identification For Implied Equity Volatility Indices, Timothy H. De Silva
Are Volatility Expectations In Different Countries Interdependent? A Data-Driven Solution To Structural Var Identification For Implied Equity Volatility Indices, Timothy H. De Silva
CMC Senior Theses
Over the past couple of decades, the number of volatility indices has increased rapidly. These indices seek to represent the market’s expectation of realized volatility over the coming month, based on the prices of options traded on each underlying equity index. Although the dynamics of realized volatility spillover have been studied extensively, very few studies exists that examine the spillover between these volatility indices. By using DAG-based structural vector autoregression, this paper provides evidence that implied volatility spillover differs from realized volatility spillover. Through solving the well-known VAR identification problem for these indices, this paper finds that Asia, more specifically …
Are Donald Trump And Hillary Clinton Controlling The Stock Market? An Analysis Of The 2016 Presidential Election's Impact On Stock Market Volatility, Julia Tambone
Scripps Senior Theses
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump ran highly controversial campaigns in the 2016 Presidential Election, which then leaves us with the question of what impact is this having on the current economy? Prior analysis of political influence on the stock market tells us that isolating political impact on the stock market is nearly impossible. However, there are clearly defined 4-year cycles in stock prices that seem to correspond with election years. In this paper, I create my own index of stocks in the four major U.S. industries and measure both day-to-day and intraday volatility in stock prices across three comparable time …
The Real Estate And Stock Market During The Great Depression: Construction Permit Growth As A Leading Economic Indicator For Stock Returns, Will Cresap
CMC Senior Theses
The 1929 stock market crash on Black Thursday, followed by the subsequent four-year period of extreme economic downturn, signifies an extremely profound piece of U.S. history. During this time, global economic productivity – measured by GDP – decreased while the U.S. unemployment rate increased staggeringly. Leveraging construction permits as a forward-looking measure of economic activity, I empirically evaluate the effect of construction permits – specifically, the lagged growth rate of monthly construction permits – and lagged monthly stock returns on monthly Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock returns. Lagged construction permit returns and lagged stock returns provide early indications …
Quantifying The Trenches: Machine Learning Applied To Nfl Offensive Lineman Valuation, Sean Pyne
Quantifying The Trenches: Machine Learning Applied To Nfl Offensive Lineman Valuation, Sean Pyne
CMC Senior Theses
There are 32 teams in the National Football League all competing to be the best by creating the strongest roster possible. The problem of evaluating talent has created extreme competition between teams in the form of a rookie draft and a fiercely competitive veteran free agent market. The difficulty with player evaluation is due to the noise associated with measuring a particular player’s value. The intent of this paper is to create an algorithm for identifying the inefficiencies in pricing in these player markets. In particular, this paper focuses on the veteran free agent market for offensive linemen in the …
How Mobile Phones Can Spark An Entrepreneurial Revolution, Alison Choe
How Mobile Phones Can Spark An Entrepreneurial Revolution, Alison Choe
Scripps Senior Theses
In the last decade, there has been an exponential rise in mobile phones in both developed and developed countries. In light of that, this paper investigates whether the expansion of such mobile networks leads to increased entrepreneurial activity. By conducting panel regressions, I find the degree to which various stages of entrepreneurial activity is affected by increased mobile phone subscription rates. I use data from 80 countries from 2007 to 2015 and parse out the different effects between developing and developed countries, and between males and females. I find that larger mobile networks encourage entrepreneurship, particularly in the early stages, …
Robert Parker’S Wine Advocate And The Consequential Pricing Of Provençal Wines, Gweneth Marter
Robert Parker’S Wine Advocate And The Consequential Pricing Of Provençal Wines, Gweneth Marter
Scripps Senior Theses
Robert Parker is an esteemed, somewhat controversial wine-critic. Since 1978, Parker has assigned every wine he tastes a score between 50 and 100. He uses this method to communicate to both consumers and producers his opinion of the quality, taste, and aging potential of the wine. Between the years 2005 and 2015, Robert Parker graded 115 wines from the French region of Provence. The goal of this thesis is to determine whether and to what extent Robert Parker’s grades affect the price of wine. Through descriptive statistics and regression analysis of Robert Parker’s grade and year of production on the …
Compensating Against Turnover: Managers' Talent Retention Decisions In Major League Baseball Under A Budget Constraint, Emma Knoesen
Compensating Against Turnover: Managers' Talent Retention Decisions In Major League Baseball Under A Budget Constraint, Emma Knoesen
Scripps Senior Theses
From 1997 to 1999 and 2003 to the present, Major League Baseball has had a luxury tax on high payroll teams. This paper analyzes the impact of the tax as a budget constraint on teams’ ability to reward and retain high performing players. In contrast to other papers, we use wins above replacement (WAR), a popular sabermetrics statistic, to measure performance. Using this metric, we quantify the number of top performers, how this performance is rewarded with salary, and how salary impacts players’ mobility decisions. We conclude that when using WAR, the distribution of performance is not heavy tailed and …
Are Oil Prices Important To U.S. Manufacturers?, Austin Perez Schoff
Are Oil Prices Important To U.S. Manufacturers?, Austin Perez Schoff
CMC Senior Theses
Very little has been written about the effect that oil prices have on manufacturing output in the United States. This paper aims to shed light about the effect of oil prices, oil imports, and GDP on U.S. manufacturing output through a four-variable vector autoregression and explain the timing of these shocks through impulse response functions. Empirical results find that oil prices are significant in determining manufacturing output, but manufacturing output is also significant in determining oil prices.
Is Silence The Answer?, Gator Adams
Is Silence The Answer?, Gator Adams
CMC Senior Theses
This study examines the relationship between company management guidance, and ex-ante crash risk over the duration of 2008(Jan 2006-Dec 2009) financial crisis using the implied volatility skew, which is based upon ex-ante volatility implied by the pricing model developed by Black-Scholes (1973). The study finds that over the duration of this crisis period, management guidance decreases with a rise in ex-ante crash risk. Further, the study provides evidence on the relationship of management guidance and earnings volatility, and how that is affected by a firm's industry product concentration based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) score.
The Fear Factor: Determinants Of Entrepreneurial Fear Of Failure, Pema Donyo
The Fear Factor: Determinants Of Entrepreneurial Fear Of Failure, Pema Donyo
CMC Senior Theses
This thesis aims to investigate determinants of fear of failure in entrepreneurial activity that could inhibit starting a business. The study uses cross-sectional, pooled OLS, and panel regressions. The dependent variable is fear of failure regarding entrepreneurship, measured with the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) survey question of whether fear of failure would prevent the responder from starting a firm. The unit of analysis is at country level. I categorize determinants into demographic, property rights, and procedural variables. A population of higher working age ratio (measured as the population aged 15-64 divided by the population aged 65 and over) correlates with …
Deconstructing “Deviance” And “Disorder” As Systems Of Domination: Chicago Public Schools As A Case Study Of The Effects Of Zero Tolerance Discipline Policies On Educational Outcomes In Us Schools, Maya Kaul
Pomona Senior Theses
The rise of “zero tolerance” discipline practices in US primary and secondary schools has become increasingly well documented by the media and empirical studies. Despite the extensive scholarship that has emerged from these conversations, many of these analyses are limited in their scope and do not connect the phenomena of zero tolerance in schools to the diverse, shifting forces at play within American politics and policy today. As such, the goal of this work is to synthesize ideas about zero tolerance across disciplines by integrating historical thought, philosophical frameworks of punishment, shifting policy goals within the US education system, the …
The Impact Of State-Provided Paid Family Leave On Wages: Examining The Role Of Gender, Aimee Samantha Abrams Widdicombe
The Impact Of State-Provided Paid Family Leave On Wages: Examining The Role Of Gender, Aimee Samantha Abrams Widdicombe
Scripps Senior Theses
The U.S. is the only OECD country that does not offer any form of federal paid parental leave. Only three states—California, New Jersey and Rhode Island—have state-provided paid leave policies; implemented in 2004, 2009 and 2014, respectively. Through descriptive statistics and difference-in-difference-in-difference regression analyses of the wages of women and men of childbearing age (19-45 years) in those three states, we assess whether the paid leave programs have effected wages, and whether these effects vary depending on gender. Our results show that wages of women of childbearing age saw negligible net effects post-policy in policy states, although statistically insignificant. On …
Adventures At The Zero Lower Bound: A Bayesian Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Analysis Of Monetary Policy Uncertainty Shocks, Rachel M. Doehr
Adventures At The Zero Lower Bound: A Bayesian Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Analysis Of Monetary Policy Uncertainty Shocks, Rachel M. Doehr
CMC Senior Theses
Using survey-based measures of future interest rate expectations from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we examine the relationship between monetary policy uncertainty, captured as the dispersion of interest rate forecasts, and fluctuations in real economic activity and core inflation. We use a flexible time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model to clearly isolate the dynamic effects of shocks to monetary policy uncertainty. To further study possible a possible nonlinear relationship between monetary policy uncertainty and the macroeconomic aggregates, we extract the impulse-response functions (IRF’s) estimated at each quarter in the time series, and use a …
Economic Assimilation For Immigrants In Chile: An Employment Convergence Analysis, Emily C. Long
Economic Assimilation For Immigrants In Chile: An Employment Convergence Analysis, Emily C. Long
Scripps Senior Theses
Blending migration studies and labor economics, this thesis explores the economic implications of immigrant assimilation in Chile by using probit models to test for employment convergence and labor market convergence between immigrant groups and native Chileans. Using census data from 1992 and 2002, we find significant differences in the employment and labor force participation rates for these demographic groups, affected by the immigrants’ gender, decade of arrival, and country of origin. We see evidence of the nascent care industry in Chile, as well as the implications of the Chilean visa system and employment contracts. Additionally, we see employment probabilities fall …
Ballot-Box Environmentalism Across The Golden State: How Geography Influences California Voters’ Demand For Environmental Public Goods, William Skyler Lewis
Ballot-Box Environmentalism Across The Golden State: How Geography Influences California Voters’ Demand For Environmental Public Goods, William Skyler Lewis
Pomona Senior Theses
In California, voters frequently face ballot propositions dealing directly or indirectly with environmental protection. Records of these votes provide powerful evidence of the character of voters’ demand and willingness-to-pay for environmental public goods (e.g., air quality, watershed ecosystem services, parks and recreation), and have been used in past environmental econometrics research to produce aggregated income and price effect estimates. Using neighborhood-level voting records on seven environmental-related ballot propositions in California between 2002 and 2010, this econometric study investigates the nature of voters’ demand for environmental public goods, focusing on the effect of household income on pro-environment voting. Unlike previous studies, …
How Cutting The Cost Of Using A Bank Affects Household’S Behavior Of Remittance Transfers: Evidence From A Field Experiment In Rural Malawi, Chuyuan Lu
CMC Senior Theses
Using a randomized experiment in rural Malawi, this paper finds that providing information on mobile bank buses’ services leads to a higher probability of adopting savings accounts in the treatment group. Households in the treated villages are 3.06 percentage points more likely to adopt savings accounts than households in the control group. Second, the information treatment leads to an increase of in the probability of households receiving remittances in the treated villages, as well as an increase in the amount of remittances received. In particular, the effect is strongest for households that lived at least three kilometers away from the …
Decrypting Bitcoin Prices And Adoption Rates Using Google Search, Varun Puri
Decrypting Bitcoin Prices And Adoption Rates Using Google Search, Varun Puri
CMC Senior Theses
In this paper, I analyze Bitcoin price formation and adoption rates at a global and national level. In determining Bitcoin prices, I consider contemporaneous and lagged values of traditional determinants of currencies, such as inflation and industrial production, and digital currency specific factors, primarily public interest. Using monthly time-series data across five years (2011 – 2016), I find that global public interest in Bitcoin, measured by Google searches for the keyword ‘Bitcoin,’ has a positive and significant impact on Bitcoin prices. I extend the analysis to a country level by employing a proxy for adoption rates, represented by the number …
Escaping The Poverty Trap: Formal Savings And Asset Accumulation In Rural Malawi, Audrey Breitwieser
Escaping The Poverty Trap: Formal Savings And Asset Accumulation In Rural Malawi, Audrey Breitwieser
CMC Senior Theses
Formal savings accounts can be an effective device for households to accumulate assets over time and thus have more funds available to better afford an expensive one-time payment, in the form of either addressing an economic shock or paying for an important life event. I explore this relationship using a field experiment in rural Malawi conducted from 2008-2010, and find that adoption of a formal savings account has no effect on the frequency of economic shocks that a household experiences, nor does it affect how households respond to shocks. However, I find that account adoption does significantly increase the frequency …
"And The Winner Is..." Predicting Presidential Elections, Amanda Lin
"And The Winner Is..." Predicting Presidential Elections, Amanda Lin
CMC Senior Theses
This paper establishes a model to forecast the Presidential election outcomes, particularly the 2016 United States Presidential Election by analyzing two distinctive approaches: predicting election wins through voting function, and using approval ratings as proxy for votes. I examine and replicate previous models for vote share of the Democratic Party and of the government for elections from 1948 to 2012. Then, I construct a model for approval ratings based on economic and non-economic variables. My findings have direct implications for forecasting elections and the political business cycle.
"I Voted": Examining The Impact Of Compulsory Voting On Voter Turnout, Nina A. Kamath
"I Voted": Examining The Impact Of Compulsory Voting On Voter Turnout, Nina A. Kamath
CMC Senior Theses
Over the past few decades, falling voter turnout rates have induced governments to adopt compulsory voting laws, in order to mitigate issues such as the socioeconomic voter gap and to bring a broader spectrum of voters into the fold. This paper presents evidence that the introduction of mandatory voting laws increases voter turnout rates by 13 points within a particular country through an entity- and time-fixed effect panel model. Moreover, it includes a discussion of the implications of adopting mandatory voting policies within the United States, finding that compelling citizens to vote would have increased participation rates to over 90 …
Implementing (Environmental) Justice: Equity And Performance In California's S.B. 535, Meagan Tokunaga
Implementing (Environmental) Justice: Equity And Performance In California's S.B. 535, Meagan Tokunaga
Pomona Senior Theses
This thesis evaluates the equity performance of a recent state environmental justice policy, California’s Senate Bill 535 (S.B. 535). “Environmental justice” refers to the disproportionate environmental harm imposed on low-income and minority communities. S.B. 535 uses competitive grants to provide funding to these communities. The research is centered around two questions: (1) to what extent has S.B. 535 experienced successful implementation in its first year of operation, and (2) how can policy actors improve implementation while balancing performance and equity goals? In regards to the first question, I utilize a case study of the policy’s implementation within 17 local governments …
Price, Perceived Value And Customer Satisfaction: A Text-Based Econometric Analysis Of Yelp! Reviews, Eleanor A. Dwyer
Price, Perceived Value And Customer Satisfaction: A Text-Based Econometric Analysis Of Yelp! Reviews, Eleanor A. Dwyer
Scripps Senior Theses
We examine the antecedents of customer satisfaction in the restaurant sector, paying particular attention to perceived value and price level. Using Latent Dirichlet Allocation, we extract latent topics from the text of Yelp! reviews, then analyze the relationship between these topics and satisfaction, measured as the difference between review rating and user average review rating.
Successfully Financing Classical Music Kickstarter Projects, Sarah Chung
Successfully Financing Classical Music Kickstarter Projects, Sarah Chung
Scripps Senior Theses
With the rise of technology and finance, crowdfunding has been uprising as a popular method of financing projects. Kickstarter provides an online platform in which anyone with Internet access can upload their own project “pitch” to gain funding for their idea on an all-or-nothing model. My thesis explores financial trends and factors that potentially contribute to a successful Kickstarter campaign within the classical music projects subcategory. I use a logistic regression and the Ordinary Least Squares model to examine a dataset of already successfully funded projects and a second dataset that contains both successfully and unsuccessfully funded projects that were …
The Resource Curse And Economic Freedom: A Bayesian Perspective, Danielle M. Roberts
The Resource Curse And Economic Freedom: A Bayesian Perspective, Danielle M. Roberts
CMC Senior Theses
The literature addressing the resource curse has been extensive. Many studies have put forth theories to explain the curse, but these theories are often refuted by new studies. Recently, there has been a theory that natural resource abundance leads to decreased economic freedom, which causes slower economic growth. Many of these studies have using frequentist testing to arrive at their conclusions. Although frequentist testing is widely used, there are several drawbacks. In particular, there is no way of addressing model uncertainty. Unless a study is able to incorporate every significant explanatory variable, the results will suffer from omitted variable bias. …
Applications Of Monte Carlo Methods In Statistical Inference Using Regression Analysis, Ji Young Huh
Applications Of Monte Carlo Methods In Statistical Inference Using Regression Analysis, Ji Young Huh
CMC Senior Theses
This paper studies the use of Monte Carlo simulation techniques in the field of econometrics, specifically statistical inference. First, I examine several estimators by deriving properties explicitly and generate their distributions through simulations. Here, simulations are used to illustrate and support the analytical results. Then, I look at test statistics where derivations are costly because of the sensitivity of their critical values to the data generating processes. Simulations here establish significance and necessity for drawing statistical inference. Overall, the paper examines when and how simulations are needed in studying econometric theories.
County Level Economic Voting In U.S. Presidential Elections, Martin R. Sartorius
County Level Economic Voting In U.S. Presidential Elections, Martin R. Sartorius
CMC Senior Theses
This thesis seeks to understand the relationship between county level economic voting and county level economic voting by demographic group on county level vote shares for U.S. presidential elections. Using an entity and time fixed effects regression model, I study the effects that county level growth in real per capita personal income and unemployment rate change have on county level two-party vote share for the Democratic Party. Additionally, I observe the responsiveness of a county’s voting behavior due to the demographic makeup of that specific county. I then compare my initial results to those of Eisenberg and Ketcham (2004) for …
The Liberalization Of Shibor And The Economic Fundamentals Of House Price Growth In China, Michael J. Mavredakis
The Liberalization Of Shibor And The Economic Fundamentals Of House Price Growth In China, Michael J. Mavredakis
CMC Senior Theses
This paper uses data collected from the National Interbank Funding Center of China, the People’s Bank of China, the National Bureau of Statistics, and Bloomberg starting in October 2006 through 2013 to test the economic fundamental’s affecting the housing market in Shanghai, particularly interest rates. This study finds that the 6- month duration Shibor has a negative and significant correlation with house price growth in Shanghai when lagged 4 months. The analysis continues by examining other economic fundamentals affecting house price growth, finding growth in inflation, the money supply and Shanghai real estate investment to have significant, positive relationships with …
Quantifying The Impact Of Temperature And Wind On Nfl Passing And Rushing Performance, Max A. Zipperman
Quantifying The Impact Of Temperature And Wind On Nfl Passing And Rushing Performance, Max A. Zipperman
CMC Senior Theses
This paper utilizes NFL game data from the 2002-2013 seasons in an investigation into the effects of temperature and wind on NFL passing and rushing performance. There are three separate analyses: (1) the general effects of weather on performance and the advantages/ disadvantages of playing at home with respect to weather, (2) a comparison of how teams respond to weather when at home vs. on the road, and (3) an examination of the effect of transitioning weather conditions on visitor performance. Teams tended to have inferior passing success in low temperatures and consequently supplant passing attempts with rushing attempts in …