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Articles 151 - 153 of 153
Full-Text Articles in Econometrics
The Kpss Test With Seasonal Dummies, Sainan Jin, Sainan Jin
The Kpss Test With Seasonal Dummies, Sainan Jin, Sainan Jin
Research Collection School Of Economics
It is shown that the KPSS test for stationarity may be applied without change to regressions with seasonal dummies. In particular, the limit distribution of the KPSS statistic is the same under both the null and alternative hypotheses whether or not seasonal dummies are used.
The Relationship Between Selected Economic Indicators And The Malaysian Stock Index Futures, Irwaan Iskandar Abrahim
The Relationship Between Selected Economic Indicators And The Malaysian Stock Index Futures, Irwaan Iskandar Abrahim
Student Works (2000-2009)
This research examines the relationship between selected economics indicators and Malaysian Stock Index Futures. It also focusses on the relevancy of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) in a developing derivatives market in South East Asia, namely the Malaysian Stock Index Futures market. The relationship analysis between selected economic indicators and Malaysian Stock Index Futures may give better understanding the degree our derivatives market grasp economics factors in determining market change and movements. In an efficient market, the relevant signal to be used in trading is the futures price. The relative forecasting power of futures price is applied with the various …
Level Adjusted Exponential Smoothing: A Method For Judgmentally Adjusting Exponential Smoothing Models For Planned Discontinuities, Dan Williams, Don Miller
Level Adjusted Exponential Smoothing: A Method For Judgmentally Adjusting Exponential Smoothing Models For Planned Discontinuities, Dan Williams, Don Miller
Publications and Research
Forecasters often make judgmental adjustments to exponential smoothing forecasts to account for the effects of a future planned change. While this approach may produce sound initial forecasts, it can result in diminished accuracy for forecast updates. A proposed technique lets the forecaster include policy change adjustments within an exponential smoothing model. For 20 real data series representing Virginia Medicaid expenses, initial forecasts and forecast updates are developed using the proposed technique and several alternatives, and they are updated through various simulated level shifts. The proposed technique was more accurate than the alternatives in updating forecasts when a shift in level …