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Full-Text Articles in Econometrics

Trust And Trustworthiness After Negative Random Shocks, Hernán Bejarano, Joris Gillet, Ismael Rodriguez-Lara Jun 2020

Trust And Trustworthiness After Negative Random Shocks, Hernán Bejarano, Joris Gillet, Ismael Rodriguez-Lara

ESI Working Papers

We investigate experimentally the effect of a negative endowment shock in a trust game to assess whether different causes of inequality have different effects on trust and trustworthiness. In our trust game there may be inequality in favor of the second mover and this may (or may not) be the result of a negative random shock (i.e., the outcome of a die roll) that decreases the endowment of the first-mover. Our findings suggest that inequality leads to differences in behavior. First-movers send more of their endowment and second-movers return more when there is inequality. However, we do not find support …

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Shocks To Aggregate Demand And Aggregate Supply In The Midst Of Covid-19, Anna M. Gellerman May 2020

Shocks To Aggregate Demand And Aggregate Supply In The Midst Of Covid-19, Anna M. Gellerman

Publications and Research

COVID-19 sent shockwaves throughout the economy, changing the amounts of goods and services distributed and altering the demand. This article discusses the negative demand shock and adverse supply shock that the U.S. economy faced in 2020, and the policies that the government implemented to reverse these effects.

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The Effect Of Sex Of Firstborn Children On Attitudes Towards Intimate Partner Violence, Shuvam Rizal May 2020

The Effect Of Sex Of Firstborn Children On Attitudes Towards Intimate Partner Violence, Shuvam Rizal

Master's Theses

What are the different ways in which one’s life is influenced by the sex of their children? Is there an effect on how they view Intimate Partner Violence? If so, is there a difference in how the male parent is affected by the sex of his child than the female parent? Bodies of conflicting Social Sciences literature suggest having a daughter makes one both more and less likely to engage in Intimate Partner Violence. In this paper, I approach this question through the use of a Linear Probability Fixed-Effects model on Demographic Health Surveys (DHS) datasets, using data from the …

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Shutdown Policies And Worldwide Conflict, Nicolas Berman, Mathieu Couttenier, Nathalie Monnet, Rohit Ticku May 2020

Shutdown Policies And Worldwide Conflict, Nicolas Berman, Mathieu Couttenier, Nathalie Monnet, Rohit Ticku

ESI Working Papers

We provide real-time evidence on the impact of Covid-19 restrictions policies on conflicts globally. We use daily information on conflict events and government policy responses to limit the spread of coronavirus to study how conflict levels vary following shutdown and lockdown policies. We use the staggered implementation of restriction policies across countries to identify their effect on conflict incidence and intensity. Our results show that imposing a nation-wide shutdown reduces the likelihood of daily conflict by around 9 percentage points. The reduction is driven by a drop in the incidence of battles, protests and violence against civilians. Across actors the …

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Comovement And Instability In Cryptocurrency Markets, Pierangelo De Pace, Jayant Rao May 2020

Comovement And Instability In Cryptocurrency Markets, Pierangelo De Pace, Jayant Rao

Pomona Economics

We analyze the extent of comovement between daily price returns of nine major cryptocurrencies during the first three main phases of their development, from April 2013 to November 2018. We assess its evolution using bivariate and multivariate modelling approaches, and detect pronounced time variation. Generally, comovement is initially low and positive, but increases between early 2017 and late 2018. We then adopt a right-tail version of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test to identify periods of mildly explosive behavior (statistical instability) in the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio (a measure of the dollar value of cryptocurrency transaction activity relative …

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Institutions, Opportunism And Prosocial Behavior: Some Experimental Evidence, Antonio Cabrales, Irma Clots-Figueras, Roberto Hernán-González, Praveen Kujal May 2020

Institutions, Opportunism And Prosocial Behavior: Some Experimental Evidence, Antonio Cabrales, Irma Clots-Figueras, Roberto Hernán-González, Praveen Kujal

ESI Working Papers

Formal or informal institutions have long been adopted by societies to protect against opportunistic behavior. However, we know very little about how these institutions are chosen and their impact on behavior. We experimentally investigate the demand for different levels of institutions that provide low to high levels of insurance and its subsequent impact on prosocial behavior. We conduct a large-scale online experiment where we add the possibility of purchasing insurance to safeguard against low reciprocity to the standard trust game. We compare two different mechanisms, the private (purchase) and the social (voting) choice of institutions. Whether voted or purchased, we …

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Information Aggregation And The Cognitive Make-Up Of Traders, Brice Corgnet, Mark Desantis, David Porter May 2020

Information Aggregation And The Cognitive Make-Up Of Traders, Brice Corgnet, Mark Desantis, David Porter

ESI Working Papers

We assess the effect of the cognitive make-up of traders on the informational efficiency of markets. We put forth that cognitive skills, such as cognitive reflection, are crucial for ensuring the informational efficiency of markets because they endow traders with the ability to infer others’ information from prices. Using laboratory experiments, we show that information aggregation is significantly enhanced when (i) all traders possess high levels of cognitive sophistication and (ii) this high level of cognitive sophistication is common information for all traders. Our findings shed light on the cognitive and informational constraints underlying the efficient market hypothesis.

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Neoclassical Supply And Demand, Experiments, And The Classical Theory Of Price Formation, Sabiou M. Inoua, Vernon L. Smith May 2020

Neoclassical Supply And Demand, Experiments, And The Classical Theory Of Price Formation, Sabiou M. Inoua, Vernon L. Smith

ESI Working Papers

"The 1870s neoclassical marginal revolution in economics culminated a century later in a striking conclusion: The core utility maximization principle of neoclassical economics was shown to have no interesting implication for aggregate market behavior (Sonnenschein, 1972, 1973a, 1973b; Debreu, 1974; Mantel, 1974; Kirman, 1989; Shafer & Sonnenschein, 1993; Rizvi, 2006). We argue that neoclassical price theory was founded on two axioms—price-taking behavior and the law of one price in a market—that, if imposed on the theory, were logically inconsistent with a theory of market price formation. This logical gap in neoclassical theory was filled essentially with thought experiments: Jevons derives …

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Viral Social Media Videos Can Raise Pro-Social Behaviours When An Epidemic Arises, Youting Guo, Jason Shachat, Matthew J. Walker, Lijia Wei Apr 2020

Viral Social Media Videos Can Raise Pro-Social Behaviours When An Epidemic Arises, Youting Guo, Jason Shachat, Matthew J. Walker, Lijia Wei

ESI Working Papers

At the onset of an epidemic, can viral social media videos induce the high levels of trust and pro-sociality required for a successful community response? Shortly after the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus in Wuhan, China, we conducted an experiment assessing the impact of viral videos on individual preferences and pro-social behaviour. Prior to the experiment, participants viewed one of three videos culled from Chinese social media: a central government leader visiting a local hospital and supermarket, health care volunteers transiting to Wuhan, or an emotionally neutral video unrelated to the emergency. Viewing one of the first two videos leads …

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A Test Of The Modigliani-Miller Theorem, Dividend Policy And Algorithmic Arbitrage In Experimental Asset Markets, Tibor Neugebauer, Jason Shachat, Wiebke Szymczak Apr 2020

A Test Of The Modigliani-Miller Theorem, Dividend Policy And Algorithmic Arbitrage In Experimental Asset Markets, Tibor Neugebauer, Jason Shachat, Wiebke Szymczak

ESI Working Papers

Modigliani and Miller showed that the market value of the company is in dependent of its capital structure, and suggested that dividend policy makes no difference to this law of one price. We experimentally test the MM theorem in a complete market with two simultaneously traded assets, employing two experimental treatment variations. The first variation involves the dividend stream. According to this variation the dividend payout order is either identical or independent. The second variation involves the market participation, or not, of an algorithmic arbitrageur. We find that Modigliani-Miller's law of one price can be supported on average with or …

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The Classical Theory Of Supply And Demand, Sabiou M. Inoua, Vernon L. Smith Mar 2020

The Classical Theory Of Supply And Demand, Sabiou M. Inoua, Vernon L. Smith

ESI Working Papers

This paper introduces and formalizes the classical view on supply and demand, which, we argue, has an integrity independent and distinct from the neoclassical theory. Demand and supply, before the marginal rev-olution, are defined not by an unobservable criterion such as a utility func-tion, but by an observable monetary variable, the reservation price: the buyer’s (maximum) willingness to pay (WTP) value (a potential price) and the seller’s (minimum) willingness to accept (WTA) value (a potential price) at the marketplace. Market demand and supply are the cumulative distri-bution of the buyers’ and sellers’ reservation prices, respectively. This WTP-WTA classical view of …

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Let’S Chat... When Communication Promotes Efficiency In Experimental Asset Markets, Brice Corgnet, Mark Desantis, David Porter Mar 2020

Let’S Chat... When Communication Promotes Efficiency In Experimental Asset Markets, Brice Corgnet, Mark Desantis, David Porter

ESI Working Papers

The growing prevalence of stock market chat rooms and social media suggests communication between traders may affect market outcomes. Using data from a series of laboratory experiments, we study the causal effect of trader communication on the price efficiency of markets. We show that communication allows markets to convey private information more effectively. This effect is most pronounced when the communication platform publicizes a reputation score that might identify a person as not being truthful. This illustrates the need for market designers to consider social interactions when designing market institutions to leverage the social motives that foster information aggregation.

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An Empirical Study Of The Sentiment Capital Asset Pricing Model, Soroush Ghazi, Mark Schneider Feb 2020

An Empirical Study Of The Sentiment Capital Asset Pricing Model, Soroush Ghazi, Mark Schneider

ESI Working Papers

What is market sentiment? This paper takes a new approach to this question and de- rives a formula for market sentiment as a function of the risk-free rate, the price/dividend ratio, and the conditional stock market volatility. The formula is derived from a representative agent with a prospect theory probability weighting function. We estimate the model and find that our sentiment measure correlates positively with the leading sentiment indexes. The model matches the equity premium while generating a low and stable risk-free rate with low risk aversion. We also apply the model to explain other anomalies for the aggregate stock …

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Categorical Salience Theory, Mark Schneider, Cary Deck, Patrick Dejarnette Feb 2020

Categorical Salience Theory, Mark Schneider, Cary Deck, Patrick Dejarnette

ESI Working Papers

Monetary lotteries are the overwhelmingly predominant tool for understanding decisions under risk. However, many real-world decisions concern multidimensional out- comes involving different goods. Recent studies have tested whether people treat multidimensional risky choices in the same manner as unidimensional monetary lotteries and found that choices over consumer goods are less risk-averse and more consistent with expected utility theory than choices over monetary lotteries. While these puzzling results cannot be explained by any standard model of decision making, we demonstrate that these findings are predicted by a salience-based model of category-dependent preferences that also explains the classic anomalies for choices under …

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Working Too Much For Too Little: Stochastic Rewards Cause Work Addiction, Brice Corgnet, Simon Gaechter, Roberto Hernán González Feb 2020

Working Too Much For Too Little: Stochastic Rewards Cause Work Addiction, Brice Corgnet, Simon Gaechter, Roberto Hernán González

ESI Working Papers

People are generally assumed to shy away from activities generating stochastic rewards, thus re-quiring extra compensation for handling any additional risk. In contrast with this view, neurosci-ence research with animals has shown that stochastic rewards may act as a powerful motivator. Applying these ideas to the study of work addiction in humans, and using a new experimental paradigm, we demonstrate how stochastic rewards may lead people to continue working on a re-petitive and effortful task even after monetary compensation becomes saliently negligible. In line with our hypotheses, we show that persistence on the work task is especially pronounced when the …

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Harnessing The Power Of Social Incentives To Curb Shirking In Teams, Brice Corgnet, Brian C. Gunia, Roberto Hernán González Feb 2020

Harnessing The Power Of Social Incentives To Curb Shirking In Teams, Brice Corgnet, Brian C. Gunia, Roberto Hernán González

ESI Working Papers

We study several solutions to shirking in teams that trigger social incentives by reshaping the workplace social context. Using an experimental design, we manipulate social pressure at work by varying the type of workplace monitoring and the extent to which employees engage in social interaction. This design allows us to assess the effectiveness as well as the popularity of each solution. Despite similar effectiveness in boosting productivity across solutions, only organizational systems involving social interaction (via chat) were at least as popular as a baseline treatment. This suggests that any solution based on promoting social interaction is more likely to …

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Adam Smith’S Theory Of Value: A Reappraisal Of Classical Price Discovery, Sabiou M. Inoua, Vernon L. Smith Feb 2020

Adam Smith’S Theory Of Value: A Reappraisal Of Classical Price Discovery, Sabiou M. Inoua, Vernon L. Smith

ESI Working Papers

The relevance of Adam Smith for understanding human morality and sociality is recognized in the growing interest in his work on moral sentiments among scholars of various academic backgrounds. But, paradoxically, Adam Smith’s theory of economic value enjoys a less prominent stature today among economists, who, while they view him as the “father of modern economics”, considered him more as having had the right intuitions about a market economy than as having developed the right concepts and the technical tools for studying it. Yet the neoclassical tradition, which replaced the classical school around 1870, failed to provide a satisfactory theory …

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An Empirical Analysis Of The Nba Draft From 2006- 2014, Lloyd Ellison Jan 2020

An Empirical Analysis Of The Nba Draft From 2006- 2014, Lloyd Ellison

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates how well the NBA (National Basketball Association) does at drafting talent that succeeds. There has always been a question of if NBA prospects can have their NBA talent forecasted. The study seeks to compare different draft years and compare if the model can determine which athletes will become successful. The study seeks to use college statistics as well as the NBA draft combine data (which includes height, weight, wingspan, etc.) The study will be cross-sectional to get the best view of a bunch of players and because depth of talent can vary year to year

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Impacts Of Wealth On Hiv Testing In Malawi: Empirical Analysis, Anthony Murray Jan 2020

Impacts Of Wealth On Hiv Testing In Malawi: Empirical Analysis, Anthony Murray

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper explores the relationship between wealth and HIV testing in the nation of Malawi, building off of previous work that tried to isolate the relationship between income and a given health outcome. Due to a variety of issues such as inaccurate self-reporting and difficulty in combining various sources of income accurately, this paper replaces income in an existing Malawi health-income model with wealth, measured by the number and kinds of possessions they owned and then scored using principal component analysis. The model used is a logit model with HIV testing as the dependent variable and wealth as the independent …

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An Empirical Analysis Of The Leading Determinants Behind The Opioid Epidemic The 50 States, Sydney Levine Jan 2020

An Empirical Analysis Of The Leading Determinants Behind The Opioid Epidemic The 50 States, Sydney Levine

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the determining factors influencing the opioid epidemic in each of the 50 states of the United States of America. The opioid epidemic is a rising concern throughout the nation and has been associated with economic conditions. The health crisis poses additional threats to the labor market and the overall economy. This study looks at the age adjusted opioid death rate per 100,000 people as the dependent variable and how unemployment rate, the labor force participation rate, ESOOS funding, the number of hospitals, Median household income, the GINI index, adults reporting poor mental health status, individuals reporting past …

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An Empirical Analysis Of Short-Term Rentals On Newly Built Homes In The United States, Matthew Garrison Jan 2020

An Empirical Analysis Of Short-Term Rentals On Newly Built Homes In The United States, Matthew Garrison

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the effects short-term rentals have on the price of newly built homes. The study uses data from the Manufactured Housing Survey Public File to perform an empirical analysis of whether the Rental Vacancy Rate effects the price of newly built homes. We find that the Rental Vacancy Rate does have a significant effect (p < .01), which parallels some past research. This may have implications for regulation of short-term rentals.

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Infant Mortality Rate And Life Expectancy Across High Income Nations: A Panel Data Analysis, Matthew Antonino Jan 2020

Infant Mortality Rate And Life Expectancy Across High Income Nations: A Panel Data Analysis, Matthew Antonino

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper will investigate the connection of infant mortality rate and life expectancy across the world. Particularly in those countries that are considered to be High Income. It will investigate multiple different variables using an econometric approach to find whether there is a correlation. The data will be collected using WDI and will be using multiple high income countries from each region of the world. By spreading the data collection across multiple continents, it will allow for multiple variables to account for differences in lifestyle.

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Inequality And Economic Growth In Latin America, Benjamin Steen Jan 2020

Inequality And Economic Growth In Latin America, Benjamin Steen

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the possibility of a relationship between the level of inequality and the GDP per capita in the countries in Latin America. Using a panel data model with fixed countries effects. we expect to examine the influences of GDP per capita and the variables that affect it in the countries of the region. The expected results of this paper are to find that the relationship between the income inequality and GDP per capita is negative.

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Effect Of Consumption Of Non-Durable Goods On Greenhouse Gas Emissions In The U.S. And Brazil: An Empirical Analysis, Nathaniel Taylor Jan 2020

Effect Of Consumption Of Non-Durable Goods On Greenhouse Gas Emissions In The U.S. And Brazil: An Empirical Analysis, Nathaniel Taylor

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper explores how consumption of nondurable goods in the United States and Brazil is linked to greenhouse gas emissions, specifically carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous dioxide (N2O), and methane (CH4). Non-durable goods pollute the environment through production, transportation, consumption, and decomposition. The overconsumption of non-durable goods such as food, fuel, cosmetics, tobacco, and clothing are causing deforestation, loss of soil, soil pollution, and many more. After measuring the levels of pollutants from 2003-2017, they are compared to non-durable good consumption rates. This paper uses a collection of data from St. Louis Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) regarding consumption indicators, the …

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Airline Fare Competition In The Post-Merger Era, Parker Michael Armstrong Jan 2020

Airline Fare Competition In The Post-Merger Era, Parker Michael Armstrong

Honors Theses and Capstones

This paper expands on the research of competition within the airline industry. This analysis estimates the fare-impact of new full-service or low-cost competition in city-pair markets in the domestic United States. Given the comprehensive restructuring of the airline industry as a result of the Delta-Northwest, United-Continental, and American-US Airways mergers, this analysis examines how the fare-impact of competition may have changed since the pre-merger era. This paper suggests evidence of a weaker effect regarding the entry of a low-cost carrier and a stronger effect regarding the entry of a legacy carrier in the post-merger era relative to the pre-merger period. …

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The Economic Impact Of Forest Harvest Practices On Washington State Park Visitation, Tyler Humphries Jan 2020

The Economic Impact Of Forest Harvest Practices On Washington State Park Visitation, Tyler Humphries

All Master's Theses

Washington State receives timber contributions from 34 out of its 39 counties, making it a top producer of timber in the United States. Because of the widespread and abundant number of harvests, many forests that society values are affected via diminished aesthetic appeal. Of these affected areas are Washington State Parks and the areas around them. This study seeks to estimate the economic impact that forest harvest practices have on the visitation of Washington State Parks. Through the use of GIS and fixed effect regression analysis, I estimate the impact that over 100,000 permitted forest cuts have on the visitation …

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Does Racial Discrimination Exist In The Nba?, Logan Kendall Jan 2020

Does Racial Discrimination Exist In The Nba?, Logan Kendall

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

This paper aims to examines the affect of race on compensation for NBA players. Based on prior research, I pose the hypothesis that racial discrimination does exist in the NBA with there being a premium for white players. A second hypothesis I present based on the previous research is that the premium for white players exist for only some groups of players and for other groups there with not exist discrimination based on player race. By using career data from every player who played in the 2019-2020 NBA season and their 2019-2020 salaries, a few different models where ran. The …

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Financial Development And Economic Growth, Chiau-Jiun Jiang Jan 2020

Financial Development And Economic Growth, Chiau-Jiun Jiang

Dissertations and Theses

This paper purposes to discuss the relationship between the financial development and economic growth. In the past, most studies related to the influence of financial development on economic growth used cross-sectional analysis or time series analysis. However, the cross-sectional analysis cannot explain the long-term trend of the time series, and the time series is unable to explain the multiple samples of the cross-section. Based on Arellano and Bond (1991), and Arellano and Bover (1995), this paper utilizes the panel data model to discuss financial development and economic growth. The results point out that bank credit in total GDP and capitalization …

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All Pay Quality-Bids In Score Procurement Auctions, Dan Kovenock, Jingfeng Lu Jan 2020

All Pay Quality-Bids In Score Procurement Auctions, Dan Kovenock, Jingfeng Lu

ESI Working Papers

In this paper, we study score procurement auctions with all-pay quality bids. A supplier’s score is the difference between his quality and price bids. The supplier with the highest score wins and gets paid his own price bid. The procurer’s payoff is the difference between the winner’s quality and the procurer’s payments to the suppliers. Equilibrium quality and price bids are solved without first obtaining the corresponding equilibrium scores. We find that quality bids, the suppliers’ payoffs and the procurer’s payoff do not depend on whether price bids are made contingent on quality bids. Compared to a benchmark of winner-pay …

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Rationally Inattentive Savers And Monetary Policy Changes: A Laboratory Experiment, Andrea Civelli, Cary Deck, Antonella Tutino Jan 2020

Rationally Inattentive Savers And Monetary Policy Changes: A Laboratory Experiment, Andrea Civelli, Cary Deck, Antonella Tutino

ESI Working Papers

We study the response of consumption and saving decisions of rationally inattentive individuals to changes in monetary policy in the laboratory. First, we theoretically characterize the choices of a rationally inattentive agent processing information about the interest rate. Then, we design an experiment with induced inattention to test for the predictions of the model, contrasting them to the full information case. Consistent with the predictions, experimental subjects (a) increase attention when utility gains exceed cognitive costs of tracking the policy rate and decrease savings when their perceived economic outlook deteriorates; (b) respond to Delphic, but not Odyssean, forms of forward …

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