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Full-Text Articles in Econometrics

300 Anniversary Of Smith’ Birth, Vernon L. Smith Jun 2022

300 Anniversary Of Smith’ Birth, Vernon L. Smith

ESI Working Papers

Thousand-word brief on key quotes from Adam Smith’s two books (TMS, WN) modelling Society and Economy.


How Do Reward Versus Penalty Framed Incentives Affect Diagnostic Performance In Auditing?, Bright (Yue) Hong, Timothy W. Shields May 2022

How Do Reward Versus Penalty Framed Incentives Affect Diagnostic Performance In Auditing?, Bright (Yue) Hong, Timothy W. Shields

ESI Working Papers

Prior research examines how rewards versus economically equivalent penalties affect effort. However, accountants perform various diagnostic analyses that involve more than exerting effort. For example, auditors often need to identify whether a material misstatement is the underlying cause of a phenomenon among the possible causes. Testing helps identify the cause, but testing is costly. When participants are incentivized to test accurately (rather than test more) and objectively (unbiased between testing and not testing), we find that framing the incentives as rewards versus equivalent penalties increases testing by lowering the subjective testing criterion and by increasing the assessed risk of material …


Motives For Cooperation In The One-Shot Prisoner’S Dilemma, Mark Schneider, Timothy W. Shields May 2022

Motives For Cooperation In The One-Shot Prisoner’S Dilemma, Mark Schneider, Timothy W. Shields

ESI Working Papers

We investigate the motives for cooperation in the one-shot Prisoner’s Dilemma (PD). A prior study finds that cooperation rates in one-shot PD games can be ranked empirically by the social surplus from cooperation. That study employs symmetric payoffs from cooperation in simultaneous PD games. Hence, in that setting, it is not possible to discern the motives for cooperation since three prominent social welfare criteria, social surplus (efficiency) preferences, Rawlsian maximin preferences, and inequity aversion make the same predictions. In the present paper, we conduct an experiment to identify which of these social preferences best explains differences in cooperation rates and …


On The Generalizability Of Using Mobile Devices To Conduct Economic Experiments, Yiting Guo, Jason Shachat, Matthew J. Walker, Lijia Wei May 2022

On The Generalizability Of Using Mobile Devices To Conduct Economic Experiments, Yiting Guo, Jason Shachat, Matthew J. Walker, Lijia Wei

ESI Working Papers

Recent technological advances enable the implementation of online, field and hybrid experiments using mobile devices. Mobile devices enable sampling of incentivized decisions in more representative samples, consequently increasing the generalizability of results. Generalizability might be compromised, however, if the device is a relevant behavioural confound. This paper reports on a battery of common economic games and decision-making tasks in which we systematically randomize the decision-making device (computer versus mobile phone) and the laboratory setup (physical versus online). The results offer broad support for conducting decision experiments using mobile devices. For six out of eight tasks, we find robust null results …


Panel Data Analysis Of Import Tariff Policy On Economic Growth And Industrial Output In Developing Economies, Connor A. Palazzo May 2022

Panel Data Analysis Of Import Tariff Policy On Economic Growth And Industrial Output In Developing Economies, Connor A. Palazzo

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper is focused on interpreting the effects of import tariff policy on domestic economic growth in the small market economies of developing nations. There have been several previous studies that have investigated the effect of tariff policy on domestic consumers and producers of already established economies. In addition, there have also been many studies assessing the effects tariffs from developed countries have on developing countries. However, few reports have been done on how tariffs impact the domestic producers of a developing nation. It is widely accepted that open and free trade is the best method for facilitating growth and …


The Effect Of Minimum Wage Increases On Employment Of Teenagers In New England, Felicia O’Reilly Apr 2022

The Effect Of Minimum Wage Increases On Employment Of Teenagers In New England, Felicia O’Reilly

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper examines the relationship between increasing minimum wage and the number of hours that teenagers ages 15-19 work in New England states during the years 2002- 2019. In these years, all New England states have had various minimum wage rates, this paper will use feasible general least squares state-level panel data analysis to see if there is a positive or negative impact on teenage employment due to increases in minimum wage. Data was collected from the Current Population Survey, the American Community Survey, and state census data, and used with an equation derived by Zavodny (2000). State-level panel data …


A Panel Data Analysis Of The Effects Of Macroeconomic Variables On Income Inequality In Latin American Countries, Scott Poretsky Apr 2022

A Panel Data Analysis Of The Effects Of Macroeconomic Variables On Income Inequality In Latin American Countries, Scott Poretsky

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the relationship between inflation, trade, unemployment, education, and economic growth on income inequality in the South American OECD countries (Chile, Costa Rica, Colombia, Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, and Peru). While Argentina, Brazil, and Peru are not official OECD countries, they have a working relationship with OECD and have taken the first steps toward initiation in OECD. The variable that represents income inequality is the Gini Index World Bank estimator, and the variable that represents economic growth is GDP. This paper uses a panel data set from 2006 to 2020. The results of this study show that trade percentage, …


International Integration And Export-Led Growth In Latin America: A Panel Data Analysis, James Titus Apr 2022

International Integration And Export-Led Growth In Latin America: A Panel Data Analysis, James Titus

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the potential determinants for international integration and effects of export-led growth in Latin American countries to determine the most effective measure of growth in the countries. The study incorporates information asymmetry into a GDP per capita growth model to examine the influence of openness, human capital, export diversity, and more. While examining data from World Bank development indicators, it has been shown that there are at least nine different variables that provide relevant data to create a functional model. The results show that there are many applicable determinants that can be used in the model without over-correlation. …


Effectiveness Of Aid: Panel Data Analysis Of Foreign Aid In Africa, Will Bittrich Apr 2022

Effectiveness Of Aid: Panel Data Analysis Of Foreign Aid In Africa, Will Bittrich

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the effectiveness of international foreign aid flows into the continent of Africa. The study incorporates economic information into an econometric model to examine the influence of variables including natural resources, types of government, corruption, and education. The influence of gender equality and rule of law in relation to developed countries is factored in through a dependent variable. These findings provide an analysis on the efficiency of foreign aid and its effects on economic development in the region.


A Panel Data Analysis On Income Inequality On Life Expectancy In Asia, Julianna Flaccavento Apr 2022

A Panel Data Analysis On Income Inequality On Life Expectancy In Asia, Julianna Flaccavento

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper aims to investigate the possibility of interdependence between income and life expectancy in countries across Asia. The study looks at the difference of life expectancies for men, women, and the two genders combined. We also looked at how health could have an impact on the model. We ran a fixed and random effect model on our panel data. We then ran the fixed and random effect model on the countries separated by income levels which we separated into low, middle, and high. The results show that the fixed effect was significant in Asia on both males and females …


The School-To-Prison Pipeline: A Panel Data Analysis, Samuel Guider Apr 2022

The School-To-Prison Pipeline: A Panel Data Analysis, Samuel Guider

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

The objective of this paper is to analyze the potential affect public-school funding has on juvenile incarceration rates in the United States using a panel series data set from 2000 until 2020. The United States has the highest per capita incarceration rates among 114 other members of the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), with 639 individuals for every 100,000 are incarcerated in the United States. This papers aims to use explanatory variables like race (black and white), sex, age, arrests, educational attainment, and rates of school attendance to further help in answering if an increase in public spending …


The Empirical Analysis Of Motherhood Penalty: The Effect Of Having Children On Women’S Career, Madison Henry Apr 2022

The Empirical Analysis Of Motherhood Penalty: The Effect Of Having Children On Women’S Career, Madison Henry

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the motherhood penalty as well as the fatherhood bonus. The Motherhood penalty is a phenomenon by which women’s pay decreases once they become mothers. The fatherhood bonus refers to the advantages that working fathers get in terms of pay and perceived competence in comparison with working mothers and childless men. This study incorporates information on the effect a child has on a mother’s income verse that of a father’s, while also measuring how a woman’s income is affected after having a child comparatively to that of a childless woman’s. The results show that the income of Mother’s …


An Empirical Analysis On Disparities In Access To Healthcare In New York City, Olivia Lemire Apr 2022

An Empirical Analysis On Disparities In Access To Healthcare In New York City, Olivia Lemire

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

Healthcare access varies across demographics. Access to healthcare is a strong determinant of health of individuals in New York City. There are a wide range of disparities in health care access for People of Color. Determinants of insurance include race, sex, education status, marital status, whether an individual has children. White individuals, specifically White females have the highest rate of insurance, while Latinx males have the lowest rate of insurance.


Panel Data Analysis: Gender Wage Gap And Macroeconomic Factors Impacts, Yuzhe Lin Apr 2022

Panel Data Analysis: Gender Wage Gap And Macroeconomic Factors Impacts, Yuzhe Lin

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper study the relationship between the gender wage gaps and macroeconomic factors that would impact them. The paper use panel data with data collected from OCED and World Bank WDI Indicator. The results show that the difference between female and male life expectancy, import, and female labor participation has a positive impact on the gender wage gap. FDI and Women business and law index score has a negative impact the gender wage gap.


Causal Relationship Between Defense Spending And Economic Growth In Countries With Different Income Levels, Kyle Sampson Apr 2022

Causal Relationship Between Defense Spending And Economic Growth In Countries With Different Income Levels, Kyle Sampson

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper addresses the relationship between defense spending and economic growth for various economies with different income levels. Using time series annual data, the Granger causality test was conducted. This study looks to determine whether the direction of causality in these economies is different in low−income, middle income, and high−income countries.


Granger Causality Of The Relationship Between Tourist Flows And Household Expenditure In Jamaica, Ben Williams Apr 2022

Granger Causality Of The Relationship Between Tourist Flows And Household Expenditure In Jamaica, Ben Williams

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

Keynesians propose that increases in tourist arrivals are associated with an expansion in private spending through the multiplier effect. To test this hypothesis, this study augments a simple consumption function with tourist arrivals and employs the dynamic OLS method to compute the short and long run relationships of the variables. Time series data from 1980-2019 is used to test if tourist arrivals Granger cause household expenditure. The results show that there is no relationship between tourist arrivals and household expenditure in Jamaica and tourist arrivals do not Granger cause household expenditure.


Impact Of Corruption On Economic Growth In Central America: A Panel Data Analysis, Ben Bresnee Apr 2022

Impact Of Corruption On Economic Growth In Central America: A Panel Data Analysis, Ben Bresnee

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the possible impact of corruption on economic growth in Central America. This study incorporates information into a model to examine the influence of different factors such as population growth, aid, human capital, gross domestic investment, Corruption, and consumption. This study finds that there is a negative effect of corruption on economic growth in Central America.


Determinants Of Real Median Household Income In The United States Using Time-Series And Panel Data Analysis, Evan Clark Apr 2022

Determinants Of Real Median Household Income In The United States Using Time-Series And Panel Data Analysis, Evan Clark

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper’s main objective was to explore the determinants of income inequality using real median household income in the United States. This paper utilizes time series analysis to examine the Gini coefficient, trends in the top 1%’s share of wealth, and the relationship between real median income and varying demographics. The Gini coefficient is a summary measure of income inequality in a country. Income inequality is how unevenly income is distributed throughout a population. The results show that there is a negative correlation between the top 1%’s share of total wealth and the United States Gini rating, and that inequality …


A Panel Data Analysis Of Institutional Quality, Fdi, And Public Debts’ Impact On Economic Growth For Asean, Joshua Kearney Apr 2022

A Panel Data Analysis Of Institutional Quality, Fdi, And Public Debts’ Impact On Economic Growth For Asean, Joshua Kearney

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the effects on economic growth driven by institutional quality, foreign direct investment, and public debt while doing a breakdown and comparison between the first and last five nations to join ASEAN as well as a collective analysis of the complete 10 ASEAN. The model used in this paper focuses primarily on the country’s gross domestic product and the domestic growth seen within ASEAN that utilized public debt to fund governmental agendas.


Who Withdraws First? Line Formation During Bank Runs, Hubert János Kiss, Ismael Rodriguez-Lara, Alfonso Rosa-Garcia Apr 2022

Who Withdraws First? Line Formation During Bank Runs, Hubert János Kiss, Ismael Rodriguez-Lara, Alfonso Rosa-Garcia

ESI Working Papers

We study how lines form in front of banks. In our model, depositors choose first the level of effort to arrive early at the bank and then whether or not to withdraw their deposit. We argue that the informational environment (i.e., the possibility of observing the action of others) affects the emergence of bank runs and should, therefore, influence the line formation. We test this prediction experimentally. While the informational environment has no effect on the line formation when we look at the average level of effort, our findings suggest that the reasons to arrive early at the bank varies …


Agency, Benevolence And Justice, Prithvijit Mukherjee, J. Dustin Tracy Mar 2022

Agency, Benevolence And Justice, Prithvijit Mukherjee, J. Dustin Tracy

ESI Working Papers

We test for social norms regarding how Agents should select between risky prospects for Principals, including norms consistent with observations by Adam Smith. We elicit norms from subjects serving as ``impartial spectator[s]" about the choice of risky prospects selected by the Agents. We find strong evidence for the existence of norms, consistent with Smith's observations. Furthermore, we find that Agents are more likely to select more normative options. In contrast, we find that Principals' allocation for bonuses depends on the realization of the risky prospect rather than whether the Agents' choice was consistent with the norm.


Data For "Agency, Benevolence And Justice", Prithvijit Mukherjee, J. Dustin Tracy Feb 2022

Data For "Agency, Benevolence And Justice", Prithvijit Mukherjee, J. Dustin Tracy

ESI Data Sets

We test for social norms regarding how agents should select between risky prospects for principals, including norms consistent with beneficence and justice propositions from Adam Smith. We elicit norms from subjects serving as "impartial spectator[s]" about choice of risky prospect selected by the agents. We find strong evidence for the existence of norms, consistent with the Smith propositions. Furthermore we find that agents are more likely to select more normative options. In contrast, we find that principals' allocation for bonuses depends on the realization of the risky prospect rather than whether the agents choice was consistent with the norm.


The No-Arbitrage Hypothesis And Inertia In Forward Markets, José Luis Ferreira, Praveen Kujal, Stephen Rassenti Feb 2022

The No-Arbitrage Hypothesis And Inertia In Forward Markets, José Luis Ferreira, Praveen Kujal, Stephen Rassenti

ESI Working Papers

Allaz (1992) showed that the no-arbitrage condition in forward markets is obtained as a feature of the equilibrium if the model allows for strategic behavior on the part of the buyers. He showed that having active buyers is equivalent to passive buyers plus the no-arbitrage hypothesis. We test this experimentally in a forward market by allowing for active buyer’s under exogenously or endogenously determined market closure. We further test an inertia hypothesis that looks at whether past participation in a spot-market results in quantities being limited in the forward market stage. Importantly, the no-arbitrage condition can only be tested with …


The Effects Of Environmental Corporate Social Responsibility On Financial Returns, Kevin Acevedo Jan 2022

The Effects Of Environmental Corporate Social Responsibility On Financial Returns, Kevin Acevedo

Theses and Dissertations

A major issue concerning companies is global warming and the impact that firms have on the environment. Companies are taking steps towards sustainability, but it is unclear if sustainable business practices are beneficial to companies’ financial performance. This paper examines the effect of environmental corporate social responsibility (CSR) of Fortune 250 companies on financial performance. The analysis reveals significant effects on financial performance, but they are inconsistent and hard to interpret.


Bean To Buck: Examining The Effects Of The Global Coffee Commodity Market On Smallholders In Colombia, Alexander Ozols Jan 2022

Bean To Buck: Examining The Effects Of The Global Coffee Commodity Market On Smallholders In Colombia, Alexander Ozols

Honors Theses

Utilizing global coffee commodity prices as an exogenous variable on households' consumption, I examine how global coffee commodity price fluctuations affect the well-being of households in the third-largest coffee-producing nation, Colombia. The results show that rural regions and regions designated as part of the "Coffee Axis" are most affected by fluctuations in prices. While results on other regional distinctions are not significant, the size of a household's farming operation dictates how increases in consumption are affected. Lastly, I show that changes in coffee prices, do not have any effect on whether a small or large farm will switch to growing …


Perishable Goods Versus Re-Tradable Assets: A Theoretical Reappraisal Of A Fundamental Dichotomy, Sabiou M. Inoua, Vernon L. Smith Jan 2022

Perishable Goods Versus Re-Tradable Assets: A Theoretical Reappraisal Of A Fundamental Dichotomy, Sabiou M. Inoua, Vernon L. Smith

ESI Working Papers

Although various typologies of goods are commonly adopted in economics, one stood out in market experiment results contrasting market stability and efficiency with market instability: non-durable, or perishable, goods (Smith, 1962) versus durable re-tradable assets (Smith et al., 1988; Dickhaut et al., 2012; S. D. Gjerstad et al., 2015). This dichotomy of goods also proved central for understanding macroeconomic instability more broadly: about 75% of consumer spending is bought for final consumption, and is a rock of stability; instability arises from the other 25% re-tradable goods, most prominently, houses (S. D. Gjerstad & Smith, 2014). In this chapter, we revisit …


A Reassessment Of The Potential For Loss-Framed Incentive Contracts To Increase Productivity: A Meta-Analysis And A Real-Effort Experiment, Paul J. Ferraro, J. Dustin Tracy Oct 2021

A Reassessment Of The Potential For Loss-Framed Incentive Contracts To Increase Productivity: A Meta-Analysis And A Real-Effort Experiment, Paul J. Ferraro, J. Dustin Tracy

ESI Working Papers

Substantial productivity increases have been reported when incentives are framed as losses rather than gains. Loss-framed contracts have also been reported to be preferred by workers. The results from our meta-analysis and real-effort experiment challenge these claims. The meta-analysis' summary effect size of loss framing is a 0.16 SD increase in productivity. Whereas the summary effect size in laboratory experiments is a 0.33 SD, the summary effect size from field experiments is 0.02 SD. We detect evidence of publication biases among laboratory experiments. In a new laboratory experiment that addresses prior design weaknesses, we estimate an effect size of 0.12 …


Beware The Gini Index! A New Inequality Measure, Sabiou M. Inoua Oct 2021

Beware The Gini Index! A New Inequality Measure, Sabiou M. Inoua

ESI Working Papers

The Gini index underestimates inequality for heavy-tailed distributions: for example, a Pareto distribution with exponent 1.5 (which has infinite variance) has the same Gini index as any exponential distribution (a mere 0.5). This is because the Gini index is relatively robust to extreme observations; while a statistic’s robustness to extremes is desirable for data potentially distorted by outliers, it is misleading for heavy-tailed distributions, which inherently exhibit extremes. We propose an alternative inequality index: the variance normalized by the second moment. This ratio is more stable (hence more reliable) for large samples from an infinite-variance distribution than the Gini index …


Conflict In The Pool: A Field Experiment, Loukas Balafoutas, Marco Faravelli, Roman Sheremeta Sep 2021

Conflict In The Pool: A Field Experiment, Loukas Balafoutas, Marco Faravelli, Roman Sheremeta

ESI Working Papers

We conduct a field experiment on conflict in swimming pools. When all lanes are occupied, an actor joins the least crowded lane and asks one of the swimmers to move to another lane. The lane represents a contested scarce resource. We vary the actor’s valuation (high and low) for the good through the message they deliver. Also, we take advantage of the natural variation in the number of swimmers to proxy for their valuation. Consistent with theoretical predictions, a swimmer’s propensity to engage in conflict increases in scarcity (incentive effect) and decreases in the actor’s valuation (discouragement effect). We complement …


Dynamic Resource Allocation With Cost Externality, Hao Zhao, David Porter Sep 2021

Dynamic Resource Allocation With Cost Externality, Hao Zhao, David Porter

ESI Working Papers

The inter-temporal resource allocation efficiency of a property rights-based common-pool resource system is challenged by a cost externality when one user’s extraction raises the extraction cost for others. This paper builds a dynamic resource allocation model to illustrate the efficiency loss from a standard property rights market. We then create a novel inter-temporal allocation mechanism that preserves dynamic efficiency. Our dynamic resource allocation mechanism includes an optimal planning stage where the agents collectively determine a binding extraction target for each period and a market stage where agents can exchange their extraction rights assigned within each period. The theoretical model demonstrates …