Econometrics Commons^™

Factors Affecting Health Care Spending, Jennifer Resende

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

With an aging population and an increase in health care spending across many nations, there is a need to determine what is affecting this increase and whether this trend can be expected to continue into the future. This paper aims to investigate the possible differences in health care expenditures in different countries. The study incorporates the use and analysis of several independent variables that are believed to affect health care spending in an array of countries including life expectancies, the increase in aging populations, health care spending on private sectors, and the quality of health care as represented by the …

The Social And Behavioral Factors That Affect Obesity In Oecd Countries, Sanjana Desai

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the factors that affect obesity in the population of the member countries of the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). This study incorporates existing information of the most likely variables that would influence obesity in these member countries for a decade (1990-2000). The study looks at contributing factors that are both innate and acquired, such as Alcohol Consumption, Low-birth weight, sugar consumption, smoking (consumption of tobacco), and protein intake and public and private expenditure on education. Using macro-level data from various sources, the results generally suggest that factors like alcohol consumption, low-birth weight and sugar consumption …

U.S. Current Account: Why Is It Increasingly Negative?, Joshua Champagne

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the reasons for the increasingly negative United States current account. The study incorporates information into a multivariate linear regression model to examine the influence of various economic indicators on the U.S. current account. The paper focuses more so on which variables create an increase in the current account and which variables cause deterioration and why the overall value of the current account is continually becoming more negative. The results show that the U.S. Current Account is negative because there is not enough government investment, savings, and private savings, along with a negative fiscal policy, combined with an …

The Importance Of Governance To A Stable And Developed Economy, Peter Litvinenko

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the assumption that proficient governance is essential in securing a stable economy. It studies and analyzes many relevant variables that one would find controlled by the government in its economy. My results show that these established nations all have differences in terms of debt and balance of trades but all seem to agree on the importance of maintaining a morally stable and efficient government structure that allows them to compete in the world economy.

Economic And Social Factors That Influence Life Expectancy And Infant Mortality, Kenneth Smith

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates life expectancy and infant mortality rates in randomly selected countries from around the world. This study takes into consideration many economic and social factors that could potentially have an effect on life expectancy and infant mortality in different countries. Factors are modeled using a least-squared regression model and are determined as significant based on their probability factor. Results show both positive and negative effects depending on the economic and social factor.

The Interaction Between The Stock Market, Monetary Policy And Inflation In Singapore And Malaysia, Lindsey Kahler

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates and compares the interactions among the stock market, monetary policy, and inflation in both Singapore and Malaysia from 2005 through 2007 using bivariate and multivariate vector autoregressive cointegrating specifications. The Granger-causality test shows that for Malaysia there significant unidirectional relationships of inter-bank loan rates to inflation, and inflation to Kuala Lumpur stock returns. For Singapore there is only one significant marginal unidirectional Granger-causality relationship of inflation to Straits Times stock returns. There are no reciprocal relationships in either country. Based on changes in the stock market, the multivariate results show negative changes on the interbank interest rates …

The Impact Of Sectoral Performance On The Stock Market: Does Volatility Equal Explanatory Power?, Jeffrey Haydock

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the real impact of sector performance on the overall stock market and the possibility that the primary culprit of negative or positive performance isn’t necessarily the one that significantly drives overall market performance. The study compares average gain or loss by sector with regression analysis to determine if the largest gainer or loser is also reflected in regression analysis after beta calculation. The results show that there is very limited correlation between the two measures suggesting that major volatility in one sector doesn’t necessarily have the greatest impact on total market movement.

United States Homeownership Rates: The Effect Of Macroeconomic Factors On The Domestic Real Estate Market, Alexander Grande

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper examines the correlation between U.S. economic indicators and the domestic real estate market. The analysis of the study’s findings and results show that some indicators adversely affect homeownership rates in conjunction to the overall state of the market during the time frame depicted. The regression is from a model used on an international level and it is taken and applied here to the domestic market of one country; the United States. The results from the research and tests performed highlight the economic indicators that are closely correlated to the rate of homeownership.

Causality Relationship Between Foreign Exchange Rates And Stock Market Close: Evidence From Singapore, Jeffrey Shew, Jr.

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper attempts to examine whether or not a causal relationship exists between exchange rates and stock market returns. By using the Granger Causality model, causality relationships were determined for four data sets created through the use of significant structural breaks between 1990 and 2006 in Singapore. The results suggest that over the course of 16 years there exists no relationship between exchange rates and stock market returns. However, from 1990 up until the Asian Financial Crisis exchange rates led stock prices as suggested by Granger et al. (2000). The other two time series, between the Asian Financial Crisis and …

An Analysis Of The Female Labor Force Participation Rate In The U.S. 1980-2004, Larry Martins

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This research uses census data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to examine the female labor force participation from 1980 to 2004. These statistics are used to find the determinants of women’s decisions to enter the job market. The purpose of studying the female involvement in the labor force is to illustrate if females are still having trouble in the market. This article also reviews historical labor force statistics to determine how the labor force has changed and which factors have affected its changes between 1980 and 2004. The model, estimated with U.S. data, has provided empirical support for the …

Causality Between Defense Spending Gdp And Economic Growth, Ryan P. Daley

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper addresses whether or not the government members of the “Coalition of the Willing” military expenditure as a participant in the war in Iraq will help to generate domestic economic growth on the eve of an impending recession. This paper analyzes the findings during the time period 1989-2006 regarding military expenditure as a percentage of GDP, and its effect on GDP growth, through comparing that relationship between studies and in different political, socioeconomic circumstances. It also performs the same tests on the most recent and complete set of data available for the 31 member nations of the Coalition, to …

Un-Balanced Economic Growth, Hing-Man Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

Since the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is not always one, and since technical progress is not always Harrod-neutral, it is desirable to have an endogenous growth model that admits all sizes of the elasticity and all known technology modes. We derive an equation to do just that, fully describing the per capita income growth rate at all times. It shows a typical economy needing hundreds if not thousands of years to reach its long term growth rate, leading to the conclusion that even the short run may be very long indeed.

Reform In Lieu Of Change: Tastes Great, Less Filling, Jonathan G.S. Koppell

Publications from President Jonathan G.S. Koppell

In this response to Light, Koppell argues that the increasing frequency of reform may reflect Congress's inability to make significant changes to the substance of entrenched government programs. Moreover, he observes that the more profound evolution in government has been the movement toward the market-based provision of services, which has created a demand for new competencies in the public sector.

Efficiency Of The Mutual Fund Industry: An Examination Of U.S. Domestic Equity Funds: 1995-2004, Chase J. Stewart

Gettysburg Economic Review

Investors have the ability to choose between two different management styles in the mutual fund industry. These two management styles differ in both the investment strategy type the fund executes and management costs, which are charged to the funds’ investors. First, investors may invest their funds in index funds, which employ a passive investment strategy. Here, investors expect to earn a rate of return equivalent to the market index—minus a small management fee—which the fund seeks to track. Alternatively, investors may choose active fund management. The returns of these mutual funds rely on stock selection ability of portfolio managers. Active …

Technical Change, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (1989, July). Two basic comments on Duménil’s evaluation of the new technique and the profit rate [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (1982, November 2). Duménil paper on TROP [Handwritten notes discussing balanced growth, technical change, competition, and business cycles]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Two states A & B [Handwritten notes discussing capital-output ratio and real wage]. Unpublished manuscript.

• (2005, September 20). Classical biased technical change approach and its relevance to reality [Referee’s report for International Review of Applied Economics on Hiroaki Sasaki’s paper]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Sawyer, M. (2005, June 8). Letter to Anwar …

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Empirical Investment Functions, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (1990, August). Empirical investment functions [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2005, June 12). ECM regression output for LNYJPN, 1969–2000 [Regression output]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2005, June 12). ADL regression output for LNYJPN, 1969–2000 [Regression output]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (1990, August 15). Empirical fixed investment functions [Handwritten notes discussing expectation models and empirical results for U.S. manufacturing]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (1990, August 10). gk vs. u for manufacturing, 1926–1985 [Graph]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (1990, August 11). gk (scaled) vs. Ut for manufacturing [Graph]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (1990, August 7). Empirical …

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Labor And Globalization Conference, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes.

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (n.d.). Import share and terms of trade in OECD countries [Graphs].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (2000, November 22). Estimating import equations [Document].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (2001, October 12). Thirwall project [Document].

• Conti, A. (2001, October 12). Log of import share and log of relative prices (Pm/Py) [Graphs and handwritten notes].

• Conti, A. (2001, October 12). Testing for structural break via dummies [Graphs and handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (2001, August). Regression outputs for import functions with dummies for Austria, France, and Japan [Regression outputs].

• Conti, A. (2001, March …

Does The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Hold For Malaysia?, Beebee Rosida Nohur

Student Works (2000-2009)

This paper examines the export-led growth hypothesis in Malaysia over the last 30 years using current techniques in econometric analysis of non-stationary time series. In order to avoid model misspecification, this study employs a multivariate framework. The basic objective of this study is to provide further empirical evidence on the merits of export-oriented strategies. The principal results emerging from our research are: Firstly, all the data series exhibit an autoregressive scheme of order one, that is they are I( 1) series and that exports, investment to output ratio, terms of trade and GDP in real terms are cointegrated. This implies …

How Do Forecasts Respond To Changes In Monetary Policy?, Laurence Ball, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

Just as changes in atmospheric conditions affect weather forecasts, changes in monetary policy affect economic forecasts. When monetary policy shifts, forecasters change their predictions about growth and inflation. But does the economy change to the same extent that forecasts do? In this article, Laurence Ball and Dean Croushore examine forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to determine if forecasts and the economy respond in tandem or if there are significant differences.

The Challenge Of Administration By Regulation: Preliminary Findings Regarding The U.S. Government's Venture Capital Funds, Jonathan G.S. Koppell

Publications from President Jonathan G.S. Koppell

This article assesses the ability of elected officials to control public policy as implemented by public/private hybrid organizations, specifically, government venture capital funds. The study reveals greater control over OPIC investment funds than Enterprise Funds despite the existence of more traditional administrative tools of control for Enterprise Funds. This finding suggests that the regulatory infrastructure for hybrid organizations is more determinative of control than the existence (or lack) of traditional administrative control tools. Thus the challenge of hybrid government centers on the development of regulation as a substitute for administration.

The Determinants Of Agriculture Growth In China, 1978-89, Jiefei Qiu

Masters Theses

Agriculture growth in China during the first dozen years of the economic reform could be attributed to an increase in inputs, technological progress, and institutional innovation. This paper introduces a couple of measurements for technological change and institutional reform, which include the imported capital for advanced technology, the number of high school graduates for improved human capital and the size of the free market for price reform. The study examines the effects of education, foreign capital, and price reform in rural China using data for both agriculture and farming over the period of 1978-89. Descriptions are made regarding the changes …

Introducing: The Survey Of Professional Forecasters, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

Forecasts play a crucial role in the economy. Businesses won't hire workers as readily if they think the economy may go into a recession soon. Long-term interest rates will rise if people in the financial markets expect inflation to increase. And firms are less likely to borrow money for new investment spending today if they think interest rates will soon decline.

Forecasts are important for many decisions, but not many people have the knowledge and experience to forecast economic variables well. It makes sense, therefore, for people to rely on the forecasts of experts. One easy way to get these …

Crisis Data Updates, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1987, April 2). CAP2STAR: Optimizing CAP2 and new capacity utiliz. index (UMH) + optimizing technique [Handwritten and typed notes discussing McGraw-Hill data, capacity indices, and Federal Reserve measures]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1986). CAP2STAR table [Computer printouts showing capacity indices and industrial production data from 1925 to 1985]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1987, March 26). Optimizing CAP2 [Handwritten notes including equations for ΔCAP2 and UIMH]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1987, April 2). CAP2 nonlinear L.S. estimator (Gauss) [Handwritten notes showing regression results]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1987, March 28). Model …

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Exchange Rate And Income Effects On South Korean Exports: The Us Case, Heather M. O'Neill, William Ross

Business and Economics Faculty Publications

This paper analyzes econometrically the effects of direct and cross exchange rates as well as US income and Korean supply developments on the volume of Korean exports to the US. The results suggest that US demand has been the most important factor in the growth of Korean exports to the US in recent years. However, direct exchange rate effects are also important; the estimates suggest that for 1989-90, a yearly 10% real appreciation of the won against the dollar would have lowered export volume by about 10% per year relative to a baseline case. Cross exchange rate effects run counter …

How Big Is Your Share Of Government Debt?, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

In evaluating the government's financial position, taxpayers need to account not only for its debt, but also for its ownership of tangible assets. Each taxpayer has a share of the government's net worth that is positive; however, the share was larger 10 years ago. While the real net debt tripled, this huge rise in government indebtedness generated no similar gain in government assets. Taxpayers will be paying interest on this debt with little hope of higher future returns from government assets to help pay it off. It is recommended that the government adopt a capital-budgeting system. This system would change …

Long Run Growth Patterns, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (1990, March). Long run growth patterns [Handwritten notes discussing linear splines, segmented trends, and piecewise regression]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (1990, March 11). Forms of Marxian technical change [Handwritten notes discussing basic models of technical change]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (1990, March 11). Marxian technical change [Handwritten notes discussing disembodied and embodied forms]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (1990, March 11). Nonlinear forms for Marxian technical change [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (1990, March 10). Marxian technical change and potential output: 1899–1984 [Handwritten notes discussing the problem of estimating capital-output ratios]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. …

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Es-202 Report For First Quarter_1964.Pdf, Employment Security Commission Of New Mexico

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

The New Mexico ES-202 reports, formally titled Covered Employment and Wages, present comprehensive quarterly data on employment, wages, and establishment counts of workers covered by state unemployment insurance laws. Derived from employer-submitted Unemployment Insurance tax records, the reports offer detailed industry and geographic breakdowns, supporting economic analysis, labor market research, and policy planning. The ES-202 series is part of the national Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, jointly administered by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and state workforce agencies.

Esc 202 1st Quarter County_1964.Pdf, Employment Security Commission Of New Mexico

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

The New Mexico ES-202 reports, formally titled Covered Employment and Wages, present comprehensive quarterly data on employment, wages, and establishment counts of workers covered by state unemployment insurance laws. Derived from employer-submitted Unemployment Insurance tax records, the reports offer detailed industry and geographic breakdowns, supporting economic analysis, labor market research, and policy planning. The ES-202 series is part of the national Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, jointly administered by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and state workforce agencies.

Hillsborough County: Framework Of The Plan Report, Hillsborough County Planning Commission

City and Regional Planning -- Florida

Hillsborough County's future physical growth will be built upon the base comprised of the existing development pattern : (a) Although the geographic location of Hillsborough is unalterable, man-made improvements to the natural setting are required to adapt the land form to present and future functions. Large scale drainage and hurricane protection improvements are essential to adequately adapt low- lying coastal sections to the expanding pattern of community development. (b) Protection and proper utilization of prime agricultural, phosphate mining, and waterfront areas is also essential to the maintenance of a balanced development pattern. (c) Community development occupies a relatively small proportion …