Econometrics Commons^™

Effects Of Exchange Rate Movements On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Eme O. Akpan, Johnson A. Atan

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the effect of exchange rate movements on real output growth in Nigeria. Based on quarterly series for the period 1986 to 2010, the paper examines the possible direct and indirect relationship between exchange rates and GDP growth. The relationship is derived in two ways using a simultaneous equations model within a fully specified (but small) macroeconomic model. A Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) technique was explored. The estimation results suggest that there is no evidence of a strong direct relationship between changes in exchange rate and output growth. Rather, Nigeria’s economic growth has been directly affected by …

Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: Consistency, Persistency & Severity Analyses, Babatunde Adeoye, Akinwande A. Atanda

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The adoption of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986 resulted in the transition from fixed exchange rate regime to floating exchange rate regime in Nigeria. Ever since, the exchange rate of naira vis-à-vis the U.S dollar has attained varying rates all through different time horizons. On this basis, this study examines the consistency, persistency, and severity (degree) of volatility in exchange rate of Nigerian currency (naira) vis-a-vis the United State dollar using monthly time series data from 1986 to 2008. The standard Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) model was used to analyze the long-run consistency of …

Foreign Private Investment And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegrated Var And Granger Causality Analysis, F. Z. Abdullahi, S. Ladan, Haruna R. Bakari

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This research uses a cointegration VAR model to study the contemporaneous long-run dynamics of the impact of Foreign Private Investment (FPI), Interest Rate (INR) and Inflation rate (IFR) on Growth Domestic Products (GDP) in Nigeria for the period January 1970 to December 2009. The Unit Root Test suggests that all the variables are integrated of order 1. The VAR model was appropriately identified using AIC information criteria and the VECM model has exactly one cointegration relation. The study further investigates the causal relationship using the Granger causality analysis of VECM which indicates a uni-directional causality relationship between GDP and FDI …

Banking Sector Credit And Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation, Aniekan O. Akpansung, Sikiru J. Babalola

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The paper examines the relationship between banking sector credit and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1970-2008. The causal links between the pairs of variables of interest were established using Granger causality test while a Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS) estimation technique was used for the regression models. The results of Granger causality test show evidence of unidirectional causal relationship from GDP to private sector credit (PSC) and from industrial production index (IND) to GDP. Estimated regression models indicate that private sector credit impacts positively on economic growth over the period of coverage in this study. However, lending (interest) rate …

Neither The Washington Nor Beijing Consensus: Developmental Models To Fit African Realities And Cultures, Sanusi L. Sanusi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

No abstract provided.

Industrial Diversity And Economic Performance: A Spatial Analysis, Hoa Phu Duy Tran

College of Business: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

This study examines the linkage between industrial diversity and economic growth in the 48 contiguous states of the United States.  The period of analysis is 1992 through 2009.  Five diversity indices are considered and economic growth is measured as the growth rate of nonfarm earnings.  Other variables thought to influence economic growth are included in the analysis.  They are the growth rate of nonfarm employment, capital, and farm earnings.  Tests for the endogeneity of variables are conducted and the need for instrumental variable estimation methods is demonstrated.

First, I consider multivariate model that relates nonfarm earnings growth to the diversity …

Economic Freedom And Fiscal Performance: A Regression Analysis Of Indices Of Economic Freedom On Per Capita Gdp, Jason R. Ockey

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper explores whether different forms of economic freedom drive fiscal performance. We also seek to determine which specific measurements of economic freedom have the most statistically significant impacts. Though the results of our analysis show that economic freedom does impact levels of per capita GDP, the interpretation of these results is more complicated. Because some indices of economic freedom have negative effects on per capita GDP or are statistically insignificant, it is important to note that simply generally increasing a country’s overall level of economic freedom will not necessarily spur economic growth or increase fiscal performance. This paper does …

Target Industry Study: An Empirical Analysis Of Intertemporal Trends In Regional Industrial Base Composition, David M. Smith

Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects

This paper follows existing literature on local industrial conditions and agglomeration economies in an adapted shift-share framework. The purpose of this study is to develop a cost-efficient empirical model that meets the needs of local government in analyzing changes in industrial composition. The data for this model is obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) with nondisclosed data provided by the Virginia Employment Commission which is sorted by North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) 2-digit industrial sectors. The model developed in this paper identifies certain industrial sectors which exert significant influence on the …

The Relationship Between Poverty And Crime: A Cross Section Analysis, Luke Fleming

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper compares the crime rates, poverty rates, and other economic statistics to determine if there is a relationship amongst the variables. The highest crime rates per capita in the world exist in developing countries; these countries also have very high rates of poverty. Is it a coincidence, or is there actually some substance to these facts? Crime is a complicated issue, and other variables like education, healthcare, and housing have to be taken into consideration. The results indicate that there is a relationship between certain types of crime and poverty, and that income inequality is significant to all types …

The Importance Of Good Governance In Achieving Economic Growth For Developing Nations: An Analysis Of Sub-Saharan Africa, Karl Turner

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper aims to expand on the idea that good governance is essential in sustaining growth in developing countries. I have chosen variables that are specific to determining the effect of good governance on sustained growth in several Sub-Saharan African nations. These variables will take into account the increased levels of corruption and manipulation that takes place in many of these regions. By analyzing different countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, I will be able to account for different economic and political conditions. My results show that although these countries differ in various aspects of macroeconomic policy, stable governance has been the …

A Comparative Analysis Of Development: Foreign Direct Investment And Remittances In Latin America, Jeffrey Denault

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

Economic growth in developing countries has long been thought to come from a variety of different economic factors. One of the most prevalent theories has been providing a country with high levels of foreign direct investment, encouraging the country to industrialize. Whilst there are obviously many other factors either inhibiting or encouraging a developing country’s growth, foreign direct investment has long been seen as the prime inflow of capital. However, in recent years, there has been a rapid increase in the transfer of funds to developing countries from migrant workers through remittances. This study explores the aggregate impact remittances have …

Foreign Aid And Growth In Select African Countries, Thomas Strong

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper analyzes the effects of foreign aid on economic growth in a set of African countries. This paper differs from previous literature in several ways; this paper analyzes a small sample set of aid-receiving African countries of varying distances from the equator. This paper also uses the most up-to-date data available, which will provide an insight into the 21st century conditions. Previewing the empirical results, this paper determines that aid, in the form of technical cooperation grants, has a significant, positive impact on growth.

Determinants Of A Country's Happiness, Timothy Caradonio

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper examines the relationship between several macroeconomic factors and the relative happiness of a country’s citizens. Inflation, GDP growth, real interest rate, and unemployment rate were selected as independent variables. Data on the dependent variable, the degree of happiness, was not available from other studies. Therefore, life satisfaction was used as the dependent variable which was obtained from the Happy Planet Index. This study was conducted using cross sectional data and the least squared method to determine if any of the independent variables are statistically significant to the happiness of a country.

Sexual Orientation Wage Differentials, Gian Spicuzza

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

Most early works find that homosexual and bisexual men suffer from a wage disadvantage and that lesbian and bisexual women earn a substantial wage premium compared to their heterosexual counterparts. Almost all earlier works use 1980-1990 General Social Survey data and Census 1990 data. This economic analysis uses more recent 2010 GSS data and finds statistically insignificant results that that both homosexual and bisexual men and women earn a wage differential. This is most likely attributed to the new terminology included in the 2010 GSS. For the first time, the GSS records the sexual orientation of the respondent whereas past …

Analysis Of Employer Of Last Resort In The United States: Implications Of Educational Attainments And Wage Rates, Benjamin Dionne

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper examines the feasibility and impact of an Employer of Last Resort (ELR) program in the United States. ELR could provide the US with a new policy direction in curbing poverty and creating growth. An ELR growth program would be run by the government to employ millions of unemployed and underemployed people in skilled and unskilled positions. This study aims to show that a well developed and administered ELR program could address the important issues facing the American economy and could lead to a significant economic impact. Using an ordinary least squared model the study establishes factors affecting the …

The Great Indian Growth Puzzle: What Caused A Spike In 2003?, Aditya Bindal

CMC Senior Theses

This paper will employ unit root tests for finding structural breaks endogenously among India’s key macroeconomic aggregate series, as well as their components and subcomponents. The same analysis will be repeated, wherever data are available, for states. The results from these unit root tests will then be used in regression models for national and state level data to understand the causes behind structural breaks. We find that breakpoints cluster around 1982 and 2003 for most series at the national and state level. The services component appears to be a promising candidate for explaining the 2003 structural break in some of …

The Economic Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On Emerging Markets, Aanchal Kapoor

CMC Senior Theses

Recent spikes in oil prices have thrown light on how economic activity in emerging markets may be impacted by oil price shocks. This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on emerging markets. It tests for the existence of an asymmetrical relationship between oil prices and economic activity using a model developed by James Hamilton. It also assesses the impact of structural shocks to the real price of oil on output as proposed by Lutz Kilian. While our models find no consistent pattern within emerging markets, they do suggest that oil price shocks have a …

Energy And Economic Growth: A State-Level Analysis, Nathanael D. Peach

Faculty Publications - College of Business

No abstract provided.

How Does Income Inequality Affect The Growth Of U.S. Counties?, Jeremy Roth

Economics Honors Projects

This paper aims to conduct a precise test of the political economy hypothesis linking income inequality and economic growth. By choosing covariates from a detailed county-level dataset and assuming that U.S. counties experience perfect capital mobility, I shut off the four possible channels linking inequality and growth other than political economy. This is a first in an empirical literature that has reported conflicting findings with observations of states and countries. I also present thematic maps to illustrate the cross-county variation in key growth determinants that is masked by state-level studies. My econometric tests find a negative association between the initial …

Determinants Of Rental Rates In Major Cities In The United States, Roy Ruivo

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

The focus of this paper is to determine variables that contribute to rental rate pricing. Using U.S. Census data pertaining to all cities in the United States with populations over 100,000 in 2005, this paper furthers a study of inter-city rent determinants within New York City provided by Marco (2008) using additional variables provided by Gilderbloom and Pan (2002) in their inter-city study. This report studies the impact of variables, including vacancy rates, median family income, population growth rate, and average housing costs. The population variable will be manipulated so that it represents density, which provides an accurate representation of …

Determinants Of Hyperinflation: An Analysis Of Argentina, Eric Fudge

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper examines the history of inflation rates in Argentina compared to other economic factors, including: GDP, national budget, money supply, exchange rate, and unemployment levels. Using data from the World Bank and Centre of International Economics this paper will give insight into some of the causes of high inflation levels that were evident in Argentina throughout the 1980s, peaking with hyperinflation in 1989 and 1990. Results from analyzing statistics pertaining to Argentina’s economy from 1980 to present suggest that perpetual budget deficits led the government to print money more rapidly, causing a significant decrease in currency valuation and thus …

Economic Growth And Emissions In China And India: A Comparison With The Other G5 Emerging Nations, David Niles

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the possibility of different modes of production affecting the emission levels of developing nations. China and India have experienced substantial economic growth of the past few decades. Past economists have found emission levels positively correlated with GDP growth. Nonetheless, China has significantly higher emission levels than India, given their respective growth in GDP. Whether a country bases their growth on agriculture, industry, manufacturing or services has an effect on their subsequent emission levels. Comparing these results with the other G5 nations indicate the relative importance of GDP level in comparison with economic structure. This paper finds that …

The Crime Rate In America: How Influential Is The Economy In Affecting The Level Of Crime?, Joseph Kuhar

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper explores the determinants of the crime rate, and whether or not the economy and its many indicators play a substantial role in affecting this rate. Many factors affect the crime rate in a given country/state/area including the number of police, the rate at which crime is reported, as well as the population. This paper will explore the following variables: the crime rate (dependent), number of police, conditions that affect the crime rate, the reported crime rate, and the reporting rate. It will also analyze the following economic conditions and whether or not they have a substantial effect on …

The Effect Of Education On Property Crime Across State, Wes Andrews

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the effects/importance of these independent variables (High School Graduation Rate, GDP growth Rate, GDP per capita, expenditures per capita in terms of police force, expenditures per capita in terms of the court system, employment rate, percentage of people with college degrees, and the average wage rate) on property crimes across the 50 states. The study will use OLS in order to examine the influence of these variables. Based on reviews of other similar studies it is expected that there is a negative correlation between the amount of schooling and property crime.

The Long-Run Relationship Between Inflation And Unemployment In Malaysia, Matthew Tremblay

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the long-run relationship between inflation and unemployment in the economy of Malaysia between 1972 and 2004. Basing my model off of an investigation by Fair (1997), this study will attempt to quantify the relationship between inflation rates, unemployment, wage rates, changes in production, and a measure of demand pressure. Using macro-level data from various sources, it is expected that the results will suggest periods of high inflation are directly related to high unemployment, decreased wage rates, lower production levels, and substantially weak demand pressures.

The Impact Of Socioeconomic And Environmental Factors On Infant Mortality In The U.S., Tai Abukasis

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper examines socioeconomic and environmental agents that may affect infant mortality rates among Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics in the United States. Data was collected at the state level from both federal and private databases. Three separate ordinary least squares regressions were taken for each of the aforementioned demographics. The correlations between the independent variables and infant mortality were examined from a racially-based perspective to further evaluate potential underlying causes regarding geographic, financial, and environmental constituents. Analysis of the regressions revealed that particular variables affect the rate of infant deaths among races differently and that racial disparity continues to exist …

The Impact Of An Economic Recession On Etf Sectors: Which Etf Sectors Are Most Recession-Proof?, Salvatore Galbo

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates which ETF sectors are most recession-proof by focusing on sector performance and finding the possibility of a positive or negative correlation between specific sectors and the overall market performance during such recessionary times. The study compares the percentage gain or loss by each ETF sector with regression analysis to determine which sectors perform better than the overall market performance during an economic downturn. The study incorporates the most recent recession and the recession during 2001, when the technology bubble burst occurred, to find any relevance and/or consistency in my study. The results show that out of all …

Labor Productivity, Inflation, And Unemployment's Relationship With Wage Formation In The United States, Peter Longhi

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper discusses unemployment, labor productivity and inflation’s effect on wage formation in the United States. This paper looks at a very well researched topic of wage formations relation to unemployment and labor productivity to see if there is a long term homogenous relationship between the wage levels and the dependent variables. By using quarterly data from 1996 to 2009, I will attempt to observe if wages are following the classical theoretical relationship in the United States. The specified time period will allow us to observe a distinct boom and bust in the economy. I expect to find a long …

What Drives The United States Housing Starts, Myles Ojala

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper examines the determinants of new housing starts within the United States. Using recent monthly data, this study will consider factors such as residential building permits, long and short-term mortgage rates, savings rates, and mortgage availability, to show how each of these variables influence the U.S housing market in the form of residential housing starts. Using a VAR model, this paper will show the impact that the vector variables have on each other, and especially, housing starts. By using a split set of data, this paper will also show the impact of the vector variables on housing starts during …

Factors Effecting Gdp Growth In Member States Of The European Union, Kris Mortimer

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the GDP growth in member states of the European Union from 1978 until 2007. As most people are well aware of, GDP is calculated by the sum of consumption, government expenditure, investment, and net exports. The research conducted for this paper intends to discover what other variables have affected GDP growth in the past 30 years. The variables used in this paper include the public expenditure on education, total population, inflation, percentage of population who are adolescents (0-14), adults (15-64), or elderly (65+). Today there are twenty-seven member states in the Union from which I have compiled …