Econometrics Commons^™

Ad Hoc Disaster And Crop Insurance Programs May Reduce The Use Of Risk-Reducing Conservation Tillage Practices, Karina Schoengold, Ya Ying, Russell Headlee

CAFIO: Policy Research Group Policy Pagers

There is growing concern that the risks facing agricultural producers are increasing due to several factors that include the predicted effects of climate change leading to more frequent floods, droughts, and higher temperatures as well greater use of agricultural outputs for nonfood energy products.

These risks are partially managed through federal agricultural programs. Ad hoc disaster payments have frequently been used to provide financial support.

Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Models For Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Sarah O. Alade

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Short-term inflation forecasting is an essential component of the monetary policy projections at the Central Bank of Nigeria. This paper proposes four short-term headline inflation forecasting models using the SARIMA and SARIMAX processes and compares their performance using the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2011 to September 2013. According to the results the best forecasting performance is demonstrated by the model based on the all items CPI estimated using the SARIMAX model. This model is, therefore, recommended for use in short-term forecasting of headline inflation in Nigeria. The forecasting performance up to eight months ahead, of the models based on …

Influence Of Corruption, Foreign Direct Investment And Net Domestic Credit On Economic Growth, Meng Mi

Applied Economics Theses

In Asia, it is not clear whether governments can attract increased FDI by reducing corruption, or whether corruption is irrelevant to levels of GDP growth, especially if the mechanism of net domestic credit can be used to stimulate economic growth even in the absence of high levels of FDI. The purpose of this study is to examine the potentially distinct effects of both FDI and net domestic credit on economic growth, as well as the relationship between corruption and economic growth. This relationship is studied using ex post facto data from a sample of Asian countries from the years 1980-2012. …

An Efficient Two Sample Capture-Recapture Model With High Recaptures, Danjuma Jibasen, Yusuf J. Adams

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper proposed an efficient two sample capture-recapture model (Ma) with high recaptures and compared it with the existing models like the model of no factor effect (Mo), behavioral response model (Mb) and the Petersen model (Ms), using simulated data. We found that the Petersen model provides a better estimate of the population size when the observations follow a hypergeometric distribution and the population is overestimated when recapture is high. It was also found that the proposed model provides a better estimator of the population size than the existing ones when the recapture is high. This model is particularly useful …

Causal Relationship Between Stock Market Index And Exchange Rate: Evidence From Nigeria, Abdulrasheed Zubair

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper uses Johansen’s cointegration to test for the possibility of cointegration and Granger-causality to estimate the causal relationship between stock market index and monetary indicators (exchange rate and M2) before and during the global financial crisis for Nigeria, using monthly data for the period 2001–2011. Results suggest absence of long-run relationship before and during the crisis. The Granger-causality tests show a uni-directional causality running from M2 to ASI before the crisis while during the period of the crisis there is absence of causality between the variables. This suggests that ASI show responsiveness to M2. Thus, absence of the direct …

Investigating Chaos In The Nigerian Asset And Resource Management (Arm) Discovery Fund, Ibiyinka A. Fuwape, Samuel T. Ogunjo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates chaos in a Nigerian mutual fund, Asset and Resource Management Company Limited (ARM) for a period of eleven years. The existence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the reconstruction of the phase space of the daily closing price of the fund and the delay time was quantified using mutual information function and the embedding dimension by the false nearest neighbours, where the values were identified to be 15 and 20 respectively. The presence of chaotic signals in the ARM data was further confirmed by the correlation dimension method which yielded a dimension of 2.2 …

Modeling The Nigerian Inflation Rates Using Periodogram And Fourier Series Analysis, Chukwuemeka O. Omekara,, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Micheal P. Ekerete

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This work considers the application of Periodogram and Fourier Series Analysis to model all-items monthly inflation rates in Nigeria from 2003 to 2011. The main objectives are to identify inflation cycles, fit a suitable model to the data and make forecasts of future values. To achieve these objectives, monthly all-items inflation rates for the period were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website. Periodogram and Fourier series methods of analysis are used to analyze the data. Based on the analysis, it was found that inflation cycle within the period was fifty one (51) months, which coincides with the …

Nigerian Stock Index: A Search For Optimal Garch Model Using High Frequency Data, Olaoluwa Simon Yaya

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper attempts to fit the best Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model for All Share Index (ASI) of Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) returns. A search is made on various GARCH variants specified on the assumptions of stationarity and asymmetry. Fractionally integrated types are also considered to capture the possibility of return series having property of long range dependency. The parameter estimations are carried out on the assumptions of normality and non-normality of GARCH innovations, with models and forecasts evaluated using information criteria and loss functions respectively. Under normality assumption, Hyperbolic GARCH (HYGARCH(1,d,1)) model is selected and Integrated GARCH (IGARCH(1,1)) …

Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria External Reserves, Iheanyichukwu S. Iwueze, Eleazar C. Nwogu, Valentine U. Nlebedim

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper discusses the levels and trend of external reserves in Nigeria. The relevance of this lies in the fact that it could help to monitor the reserves and throw early warning signal about any economic crisis. Monthly data on Nigeria external reserves for the period January 1999 to December, 2008 derived from the 2008 CBN Statistical Bulletin was analyzed using ARIMA model. Results of the analyses show that (i) the data requires logarithmic transformation to stabilize the variance and make the distribution normal (ii) the appropriate model that best describes the pattern in the transformed data is the Autoregressive- …

A Markov Decision Process Approach To Optimal Control Of A Multi-Level Hierarchical Manpower System, Akaninyene U. Udom

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

A recurrent problem in manpower control is how to attain the desired structural configuration in an optimal way, since it is possible to reach a desired structural configuration using different control inputs. The major aim of this paper is to develop a Markov Decision Process for optimal control of a Multi-level Hierarchical Manpower System (MHMS) by promotion and interdepartmental transfers. This is examined under control by intervention and contraction cost Markov Decision Process.

Agricultural Biotechnology, International Trade, General Equilibrium And Efficiency, Comlanvi Martin Konou

College of Business: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Ongoing debates about the adoption of the agricultural biotechnology in the developing countries and EU have dominated the literature in development economics and biosciences. This dissertation considers some environmental, economic and social consequences of the technology from three perspectives: 1) the impact of the ongoing pest density on the performance of the agricultural biotechnology in India; 2) trade consequences of EU restrictive trade policies towards biotech products; and 3) the adoption decision of the technology in the EU and the developing economies.

Agricultural biotechnology appears to be successful in increasing yield and reducing the use of pesticides. However, most studies …

Economic Indices: Managing By The Numbers, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Understanding indices is not just about crunching numbers, but appreciating how it is constructed

Does Child Sponsorship Have A Positive Impact On The Quality Of Life And Social Behavior Of Sponsored Children? Evidence From Indonesia, Mario Carrillo

Master's Theses

Relaxing an internal constraint of an individual at early stages of life is an approach that complements traditional policy interventions aimed to alleviate poverty. The Compassion International child sponsorship program focuses their work on the emotional, social, and spiritual development of sponsored children. This study investigates the impacts of child sponsorship on the quality of life and social behavior of sponsored children using age-eligibility as an instrument for sponsorship, a time preference experiment and a trust game. The study looks specifically at self-esteem, optimism, social trust, educational outcomes, patience and reciprocity of 286 sponsored children and 234 non-sponsored children between …

The Relationship Between Inequality And Economic Growth: Evidence From Latin America, Amanda Gallagher

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the complex relationship between income inequality and economic growth in the Latin American region. This study conducts an empirical analysis using economic growth as the dependent variable, to determine the impact inequality has on economic growth. This study uses panel data from countries in Latin America over the time period of 1994-2009. The empirical results show a negative relationship between inequality and economic growth in the Latin American region. In addition, the level of government expenditure and taxation in the countries impact economic growth.

Carbon Emissions And Economic Growth: A Granger Causality Analysis Across 18 Countries, Rohan Vakil

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

In this paper, an analysis of the relationship between Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions will be done using data from 9 Developed Countries, and 9 Less Developed Countries, as determined by the World Bank and United Nations. The countries analyzed will be Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea (South), Spain, United Kingdom, United States of America (9 Developed Countries); and India, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Mexico, Brazil, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa (9 Less Developed Countries). This research expands on the research done by Barassi and Spagnolo (2012), and Coondoo and Dinda (2003).

Determinants Of Fdi Inflows Into South America, Dario Castro

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This study provides a panel data analysis of the key determinants of FDI as determined by the market such as market size, economic stability, trade liberalization, population, growth prospects, and exchange rates. Additionally, other variables such as physical infrastructure, quality of institutions and central bank exchange rate regimes. This paper seeks to show the major policy implications of variables that can be influenced through government intervention. The empirical research is conducted with focus on South American FDI inflows over the last three decades, due to the great presence of natural resources and cheap labor in the region which have contributed …

State Government Revenue: The Effects Of Legalized Gambling, Nicholas S. Malz

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

When facing financial constrictions, legalized gambling is an attractive alternative for state governments. Most empirical evidence on this topic only examines a single industry in a particular state. This study involves a general analysis of three different forms of gambling across all 50 states. The data is comprised of the gambling volume and state government revenues for all 50 states from 2000 to 2010. From the research, lotteries and horse racing typically increase state revenues, while casinos tend to decrease state revenues.

The Causality Between Budget Deficits And Interest Rates In Asean Countries, Janhavi Nerurkar

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the correlation between budget deficits and interest rates across countries of varying income levels across Southeast Asia using the Granger-causality econometric model. It consists of a time series analysis of budget deficits (local currency unit) and real interest rates in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Singapore from 1990 to 2011.This analysis concludes that budget deficits and interest rates do not cause one another in the countries under consideration.

The Effect Of Macroeconomic Variables On Domestic Homeownership Rates, Patrick Graydon

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates how various macroeconomic variables affect homeownership rates in the United States. Some of the variables explored in this study include interest rates, unemployment rate, average household income, inflation rate, GDP, population, and residential construction. The paper uses quarterly data from quarter one of 2000 to quarter three of 2012. The results show the economic indicators that are closely correlated with the rate of homeownership.

An Empirical Study Of Salary Discrimination In Professional Basketball, Joshua Reynolds

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the racial differences in salaries amongst professional basketball players during the 2011-2012 season. Prior studies from the 1980s and 1990s show that white and black players have earned a comparable mean salary, based on performance variables and other player characteristics. However these studies have shown, that taking race in as a factor when running regressions of the data, preference exists towards white player salaries. This paper looks to see if the recent shift in demographic makeup of the NBA prevalent during the late 1990s and 2000s has led to a more equitable distribution of salaries based on …

Education And Wellbeing Of A Country, Michael Arons

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper examines education, employment sectors and GDP per capita. The study examines which aspects of education math, reading, or science is more important to an economy, and how they affect different employment sectors. The model will attempt to show if educational subject scores have an impact in different sectors of the economy. The main function of this model is to decipher how education affects the wellbeing of a country. The results will attempt to discern whether education impacts employment in various sectors, and conversely GDP per capita.

The Relationship Between The Stock Market And Economic Indicators: Evidence From Singapore And Hong Kong, Kahini Dalal

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper examines the relationship between the stock markets and economic variables of the selected countries: Singapore and Hong Kong. The quarterly data collected for Gross Domestic Product, Foreign Exchange Rates, Inflation and Current Account Balance, as well as Stock Prices ranges from January 2002 to December 2012. The analysis is focused on the results of the Cointegration and Granger Causality tests to estimate the relationship of the various economic indicators and the stock market indices. This estimation enables to assess whether the stock market index of the respective country is a good representation of the economic health of the …

Institutional Quality, Income Inequality, And Economic Growth In Latin American Countries, Courtney Pomer

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the possibility of the institutional quality of a country having an effect on income inequality and economic growth in Latin American Countries. The study incorporates the gini variable and growth rates of GDP in each country to examine the influence of corruption on the various countries throughout Latin America. Looking at previous research it has been found that corruption is positively correlated with income inequality and negatively correlated with economic growth. The variable for corruption in this study however measures the control of corruption in each country, so we will be looking at the institutional quality and …

A Book Review Of Capitalist Manifesto: Understanding The Market Economy And Defending Liberty, Brad Ward

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

The purpose of this paper is to review the book A Capitalist Manifesto: Understanding the Market Economy and Defending Liberty by Gary Wolfram. In a time of political unrest throughout the industrialized and developing world, Wolfram defends the free market economic system and educates the reader as to the various benefits of capitalism. According to the author, governments should create concise laws and regulations that allow individuals to pursue their ambitions without unnecessary interference. Wealth redistribution, a trait associated with socialism, leads to stagnant economies and minimal innovations. The roles that banks and the government play in the economy are …

Multinational Enterprise Entry Modes In Sub-Saharan Africa: An Eclectic Paradigm Perspective, Isaac Yao Addae, Martinez Vencia Addae

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

The use of entry modes by multinational firms has received increased attention from international business scholars. Based on the context of sub-Saharan Africa, this research reviews the locational benefits offered to MNEs by in this region. Borrowing from the eclectic paradigm of international production, the research also examines the effects of each type of entry on the locational advantages offered to MNEs. Propositions are presented to suggest which mode of entry MNEs should pursue in African markets, based on the existence of locational advantages that complement existing firm-specific advantages. Practical and research implications are discussed, in addition to considerations for …

Exchange Rate Volatility And Foreign Direct Investment In Sub-Saharan Africa, Emmanuel Ekow Asmah, Francis Kwaw Andoh

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is an important source of financing development. It enhances efficiency and raises skills of local manpower, facilitates transfer of technology, generates employment and promotes productivity resulting in broad welfare improvements. Although FDI could have a substantial impact on the growth of African economies, poverty reduction and the achievement of various dimensions of human development as articulated in the Millennium Development Goals, its flows to Africa, though growing steadily have been relatively low, volatile, and highly concentrated in a few countries. One of the factors that have been identified in the literature as key drivers of FDI …

Determinants Of Savings Rate In Rural Nigeria: A Micro Study Of Kwara State, Oluwakemi Adeola Obayelu

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

The inability of households to save over time has significant influence on the rate of capital accumulation and economic growth in developing countries. In order to understand this trend, this research assesses savings rates and its correlates in rural Kwara state, Nigeria. A multistage sampling procedure was used to obtain data from 120 households. This was then analyzed using two descriptive statistics: the generalized linear model and the Tobit regression model. Results show that majority of the rural households were male-headed (81.0 percent) and combined farming with other non-farming activities (73.5 percent). The Tobit regression model reveals that age squared …

Cafio-Prg Develops Novel Approach To Policy Research, Konstantinos Giannakas

CAFIO: Policy Research Group Policy Pagers

The University of Nebraska-Lincoln has received a grant from the United States Department of Agriculture under the Policy Research Centers Program. This grant has supported the establishment of a Policy Research Group (PRG) as part of the Center for Agricultural and Food Industrial Organization (CAFIO) in the Department of Agricultural Economics. CAFIO-PRG is led by the Project Director, Professor Konstantinos Giannakas, and its main focus is on the development of a novel, empirically relevant, integrated, multi-market framework of policy analysis.

Consumer Attitudes And Labeling Regime Key To The Market Potential Of Food Nanotechnology, Miah Tran, Amalia Yiannaka, Konstantinos Giannakas

CAFIO: Policy Research Group Policy Pagers

Research shows that, even though most consumers lack knowledge and understanding of the technology, they nevertheless have strong opinions as to its potential risks and benefits. Advocates are determined to not repeat the mistakes of biotechnology. Understanding the factors determining the market acceptance of food nanotechnology and its potential impact on the different interest groups involved can inform the design of effective policies and strategies governing food nanotechnology innovations.

Country-Of-Origin-Labeling Creates Winners And Losers Among Consumers, Producers, And Retailers, Konstantinos Giannakas, Alejandro Plastina, Daniel Pick

CAFIO: Policy Research Group Policy Pagers

Public Law 107-171, the United States Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002, required country-of-origin labeling (COOL) for beef, lamb, pork, fish, perishable agricultural commodities, and peanuts. While the aim is to benefit domestic consumers by allowing them to make informed decisions, the effects of COOL have been the subject of a heated on-going debate. Advocates of COOL argue the existence of an “overwhelming” consumer support for country of origin information and benefits that substantially outweigh the costs of this labeling regime. Opposing groups have expressed concerns about the potential competitive disadvantage that non-integrated producers might face due to …