Econometrics Commons^™

Who Helps Tsimane Children And Adults?, Eric Schniter, Daniel K. Cummings, Paul L. Hooper, Jonathan Stieglitz, Benjamin C. Trumble, Hillard S. Kaplan, Michael D. Gurven

ESI Working Papers

We examine various forms of helping behavior among Tsimane Amerindians of Bolivia, focusing on the provision of shelter, childcare, food, sickcare, cultural influence, and traditional story knowledge. Kin selection theory traditionally explains nepotistic nurturing of youth by closely related kin. However, less attention has been given to understanding the help provided by individuals without close genetic relatedness. To explain who provides various forms of help, we evaluate support for several predictions derived from kin selection theory. Our results show that helpers who are most often closely related and from an older generation tend to provide more costly forms of help …

Refugees Insertion And Labor Market Outcomes And: An Analysis Of The Egyptian Context, Salma Ebrahim

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis examines the association between the inflow of refugees to Egypt and labor market outcomes during the period 2012-2018, using data from the Egyptian Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS). By applying Difference-in Differences and Probit models, the study compares labor market outcomes between Greater Cairo, characterized by high refugee inflow, and the Suez Canal region, which has a very low inflow. The labor force outcomes analyzed wages, formality and labor force participation. The results indicate that the refugee influx is associated with a decline in wages for both formal and informal workers in the treatment group compared to the …

Value Added Tax Rate Variation, Import Demand And Sectoral Output In Nigeria, Joshua K. Nomkuha, Aondoawase Asooso, Philip T. Abachi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study employs computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the effect of increase in value added tax (VAT), from 5 per cent to 7.5 per cent, on import demand and sectoral output in Nigeria. The study uses 2020 as the base year for the data analysis. The results show that increase in VAT affects import demand negatively, based on import penetration ratios, with mixed effect across six sectors. The implication of the result is that the VAT policy discourage consumption of foreign products, and constitute excess burden to consumers of such products in Nigeria. The results further reveal that …

Trade Liberalization, Non-Oil Export And Economic Growth In Nigeria, Jerome T. Andohol, Terhemen Tarzoor, Dennis T. Nomor

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The study examines the impact of trade liberalization and non-oil exports on economic growth in Nigeria from 1986 to 2021. The study utilizes an autoregressive distributed lag model and found the combined effect of trade liberalization and non-oil exports to be positive and statistical significant. While trade liberalization alone may have negative consequences, its synergy with a robust non-oil export can drive sustainable economic growth. The study recommends that strategies to enhance non-oil exports should be encouraged to support the effectiveness of trade liberalization in promoting growth.

The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy Transmission In Nigeria: Evidence From The Monetary Policy Rate And The Cash Reserve Ratio, Abdulrahman A. Nadani, Auwal Isah

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the effectiveness of the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) and Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) as policy instruments in Nigeria. A structural VAR model is employed to simulate two distinct models measuring shocks from the MPR and the CRR using monthly data from January 2006 to December 2023. Findings show that contractionary monetary policy impulses using MPR and the CRR contract output and credit to the private sector, inflation remains largely positive in the two models, known as the “price puzzle”, but the puzzle is more persistent in the MPR equation. Moreover, shock to MPR strongly influences short-term interest …

Stock Market Volatility In The United Kingdom: Simulating Post-Covid-19 Recovery, Bala A. Dahiru, Mohammed Shuaibu, Najibullah Hassanov

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the time it would take for the FTSE-100 index to reach its post-COVID-19 peak. The paper utilises an exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model that accounts for leverage effect and asymmetries. The preferred models amongst competing variants was the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)-EGARCH(2,1) specification and was used to predict daily FTSE-100 data from 5th January 2000 to 21st June 2024. The empirical exercise showed that the COVID-19-induced financial crisis negatively affected the United Kingdom’s stock market performance. The results show that the FTSE100 index could reach its post-pandemic peak around 27th August, 2024 (two months after …

Impact Of Covid-19 Pandemic On Performance Of Nigerian Stock Market, Shafiu Ibrahim Abdullahi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study analyzes the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on the performance of Nigerian stock market. The study uses a number of models that include autoregressive distributed lag, vector auto regression, exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Findings show that reported cases of COVID-19 have causal effect on daily returns of the Nigerian stock market. The results also show that Nigerian stocks are good for portfolio diversification. The results of variance decomposition confirm the declining importance of COVID-19 cases and deaths as the pandemic slows down. Further results show that, for the duration of the …

Impact Of Fiscal Policy On Financial Inclusion And Development In Nigeria, Okwanya Innocent, Taiwo A. Olusegun, Aimua E. Peace

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the effect of fiscal policy on financial inclusion and development in Nigeria. The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and impulse response function (IRF) to determine the extent and response of financial inclusion and development to fiscal policy changes in Nigeria. The study derives a financial inclusion index from three core indicators: access, usage and quality of financial services, while financial development is measured as the ratio of money supply to GDP (M2/GDP). The results show that government expenditure has a significant positive effect on financial inclusion and development, while tax revenue exerts a negative …

Ideology And Economic Change, Jared Rubin, Debin Ma

ESI Working Papers

This paper revisits the old theses of the contrasting paths to modernization between Japan and China. It develops a new analytical framework regarding the role of ideology and ideological change—Meiji Japan’s decisive turn towards the West pitted against Qing China’s lethargic response to Western imperialism—as the key driver behind these contrasting paths. Our framework and historical narrative highlight the contrast between Tokugawa Japan’s feudal, decentralized political regime and Qing China’s centralized bureaucratic system as a key determinant driving the differential patterns of ideological realignment. We argue that the 1894-95 Japanese naval victory over China could not be justified under the …

Moral Content Diminishes Preference Falsification, Maxine Bonneau, Tanya O'Garra, Praveen Kujal

ESI Working Papers

We examine how the moral (or neutral) content of an issue influences the tendency to falsify attitudes, given varying social and monetary incentives to engage in such ‘preference falsification’. We conduct an incentivized two stage online experimental study where, in a prior first stage, attitude strength over moral and neutral issues is elicited. Then, in the second stage participants in groups of ten were asked to express their preferences regarding the moral or neutral issues for each possible combination of supporters and opposers in their group, each associated with varying monetary payoffs. More than half of the participants falsify their …

Cooperation In Temporary Partnerships, Gabriele Camera, Alessandro Gioffré

ESI Working Papers

The literature on cooperation in infinitely repeated Prisoner’s Dilemmas covers the extreme opposites of the matching spectrum: partners, a player’s opponent never changes, and strangers, a player’s opponent randomly changes in every period. Here, we extend the analysis to settings where the opponent changes, but not in every period. In these temporary partnerships, players can deter some deviations by directly sanctioning their partner. Hence, relaxing the extreme assumption of one-period matchings can support some cooperation also off equilibrium because a class of strategies emerges that are less extreme than the typical “grim” strategy. We establish conditions supporting full …

Truth By Consensus: A Theoretical And Empirical Investigation, Gabriele Camera, Rod Garratt, Cyril Monnet

ESI Working Papers

Truthful reporting about publicly observed events cannot be guaranteed by a consensus process. This fact, which we establish theoretically and verify empirically, holds true even if some individuals are compelled to tell the truth, regardless of economic incentives. In an experiment, subjects routinely misreported a commonly known event when they could monetarily gain from it. Relying on majority consensus did not help uncover the truth, especially if complying with the majority granted small personal monetary gains. This highlights the difficulties in relying on shared consensus protocols to agree on specific events, and the importance of institutions with trusted, impartial observers.

Ambiguity, Cognitive Reflection, And Strategic Complexity Across Auctions, Cary Deck, Paan Jindapon, Tigran Melkonyan, Mark Schneider

ESI Working Papers

This paper bridges large but separate literatures on decision-making under ambiguity, the dual system framework of behavioral economics, and market design. We characterize behavior under ambiguity arising from dual system preferences. Rational System 2 satisfies the subjective expected utility axioms while behavioral System 1 satisfies the obvious dominance axiom from mechanism design. Our axioms provide a novel foundation for the popular NEO-EU ambiguity model and allow for source dependent ambiguity perceptions. Our approach also provides an explanation as to how behavioral differences arise between obviously strategy-proof mechanisms (e.g. English auctions) and other mechanisms. Empirically, we find ambiguity perceptions are lower …

Cognitive Abilities And Individual Earnings In Hybrid Continuous Double Auctions, Yan Peng, Jason Shachat, Lijia Wei, S. Sarah Zhang

ESI Working Papers

There is growing evidence that human cognitive abilities strongly influence individual trader financial performance. Much of this evidence has been established in experimental asset markets whose participants are exclusively human traders. However, algorithmic trading has reshaped financial markets, raising the issue of whether these assessments on the impact of cognititive abilities still hold in these settings, particularly in markets with low latency algorithmic traders. Extending previous findings in experimental asset markets, we examine how individual cognitive abilities—reaction time, trader intuition (Theory of Mind), and cognitive reflection—affect human earnings in induced demand and supply markets with and without algorithmic traders of …

Possible Role Of The One-Half Heuristic In Overconfidence Research, Vojtěch Zíka

ESI Working Papers

Overconfidence research often involves estimating performance within a fixed range. Recent studies suggest that overprecision is affected by central tendency bias, the tendency to estimate near the center of a perceived distribution. This paper examines whether a similar pattern influences the other two overconfidence types, overestimation and overplacement. In a laboratory experiment (N = 120), participants estimated their own and the average performance over five rounds of ten Rock–Paper–Scissors games. Each round earned for up to 40 points, but average performance varied across three treatments, with means of 16.6, 20, and 23.3 points. The main question was whether this manipulation …

How Does Passive Investing Effect The Informational Efficiency Of Prices?, Brice Corgnet, Mark Desantis, Yan Peng, David Porter, Jason Shachat

ESI Working Papers

We investigate the causal effects of passive investing on informational efficiency and market quality metrics by developing a novel laboratory experiment that introduces Index trackers with exogenous passive investment flows. We find that, while improving liquidity, Index tracking hurts informational efficiency, confirming our main hypothesis. Furthermore, we observe violations of the law of one price, leading to widespread and persistent arbitrage opportunities. Additionally, our research uncovers that Active traders, particularly those with private information about asset values and high cognitive ability, reap benefits from the introduction of Index tracking.

Representation And Bracketing In Repeated Games, Mouli Modak

ESI Working Papers

In this experimental paper, the author investigates the framing effect of different representations of multiple strategic settings or games on a player’s strategic behavior. Two representations of the same environment are employed, wherein a player engages in two infinitely repeated prisoner’s dilemma games. In the first representation (termed Split), the stage games are shown separately. In contrast, the second representation (termed Linked) displays a combined stage game. The choice bracketing, distinguishing between Narrow and Broad bracketing, is considered a potential cause behind any disparity in behavior between the two representations. The Split representation does not necessitate broad bracketing, whereas the …

How Personalized Networks Can Limit Free Riding: A Multi-Group Version Of The Public Goods Game, Aaron S. Berman, Laurence R. Iannaccone, Mouli Modak

ESI Working Papers

People belong to many different groups, and few belong to the same network of groups. Moreover, people routinely reduce their involvement in dysfunctional groups while increasing involvement in those they find more attractive. The net effect can be an increase in overall cooperation and the partial isolation of free-riders, even if free-riders are never punished, excluded, or recognized. We formalize and test this conjecture with an agent-based social simulation and a multi-good extension of the standard repeated public goods game. Our initial results from three treatments suggest that the multi-group setting indeed raises overall cooperation and dampens the impact of …

Personal Lies, Gary Charness, Ismael Rodriguez-Lara

ESI Working Papers

Using the mind game, we provide experimental evidence that people are more likely to lie when they disclose non-personal information (e.g., reporting a number they thought of) compared with personal information (e.g., reporting the last digit of their birth year). Our findings suggest that the type of information is an important factor for lying behavior.

Experimental Research On Contests, Subhashish M. Chowdhury, Dan Kovenock, Anwesha Mukherjee

ESI Working Papers

Contests are situations in which agents compete by irreversibly expending costly resources in an attempt to win a prize. Due to their applications in conflict, rent-seeking, organizational incentives, sports, litigation, and political campaigns, contests are widely applied in the social sciences. In this survey we summarize some main results and recent developments of experimental studies in contest theory. We also point out their broader applications in the social sciences.

Effects Of The Homegrown Player Rule In The English Premier League: A Comprehensive Analysis Of Squad Composition, Market Values, And Wages, Jiho "Brian" Jun

Pitzer Senior Theses

This paper uses theoretical frameworks from economics and sports management to investigate the transformative effects of the Homegrown Player Rule on English Premier League squad dynamics, market valuations, and wage structures. The study examines the evolution of homegrown player distribution across clubs from the rule’s implementation in 2010 to the most recent season in 2023. My analysis of market values and wages finds no evidence that the rule leads to possible market value and wage rate disparities between homegrown and non-homegrown players. Subsequent research shows evidence of a decrease in the real wage rate of homegrown players over time, contrasting …

Three Essays On Energy Related To State Policies And Low Carbon Transitions, Pinky Thomas

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

This dissertation consists of three essays on energy-related state policies and energy transition. Each paragraph below refers to the three abstracts for the three chapters in this dissertation, respectively.

The first essay is entitled: “Impacts of State Tax and Resource Ownership Policies on Extraction: Evidence from U.S. Natural Gas Production”. The innovation of combined use of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies during the 2000s has allowed natural gas producers in the United States to extract natural gas and liquids from deep shale formations in a cost-efficient manner. This essay evaluates whether unconventional gas production responds to tax changes, and …

High-Dimensional Iv Cointegration Estimation And Inference, Peter C. B. Phillips, Igor L. Kheifets

Research Collection School Of Economics

A semiparametric triangular systems approach shows how multicointegrating linkages occur naturally in an I(1) cointegrated regression model when the long run error variance matrix in the system is singular. Under such singularity, cointegrated I(1) systems embody a multicointegrated structure that makes them useful in many empirical settings. Earlier work shows that such systems may be analyzed and estimated without appealing to the associated I(2) system but with suboptimal convergence rates and potential asymptotic bias. The present paper develops a robust approach to estimation and inference of such systems using high dimensional IV methods that have appealing asymptotic properties like those …

Equal Predictive Ability Tests Based On Panel Data With Applications To Oecd And Imf Forecasts, Oguzhan Akgun, Alain Pirotte, Giovanni Urga, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose two types of equal predictive ability (EPA) tests with panels to compare the predictions made by two forecasters. The first type, S-statistics, focuses on the overall EPA hypothesis, which states that the EPA holds, on average, over all panel units and over time. The second type, C-statistics, focuses on the clustered EPA hypothesis where the EPA holds jointly for a fixed number of clusters of panel units. The asymptotic properties of the proposed tests are evaluated under weak and strong cross-sectional dependence. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation shows that the proposed tests have very good finite sample properties, …

Impact Of Forest Plantations On Energy Poverty: An Assessment Of Reforestation Efforts In Uganda, Matilda Kabutey-Ongor

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

This study investigates the socio-economic impacts of reforestation initiatives on energy poverty in three Ugandan districts—Hoima, Dokolo, and Nakasongola. Implemented by the Ugandan National Forest Authority, these efforts aim to mitigate the adverse effects of deforestation, exacerbated by a growing population and increased demand for forest products. We hypothesize that through sustainable afforestation, access to biomass and other renewable energy sources can be improved, thereby alleviating energy poverty. The study establishes a causal relationship between reforestation and reductions in energy poverty and general poverty using advanced econometric methods, such as Ordinary Least Squares regression, Weighting, and matching techniques including Propensity …

Financial Contagion And Financial Lockdowns, Gabriele Camera, Alessandro Gioffré

ESI Working Papers

Extreme financial shocks often elicit extraordinary policy interventions that preclude financial activity on a large scale, for example as the 1933 U.S. “bank holiday.” We study these interventions using a random matching framework where the financial contagion process is explicit and the diffusion of the initial shock can be analytically characterized. The study suggests that there is scope for forced closures of individual firms or even economy-wide financial lockdowns only when firms are financially vulnerable and policy institutions are not well-functioning. Here, ordinary policy alone cannot prevent or sufficiently mitigate contagion, while complementing it with a lockdown or individual closures …

Evolution Of Primate Vocal Repertoires: Vocal Systems As Embodied Capital For Mediating Within-Group Conflict, Eric Schniter, Mateo Peñaherrera-Aguirre

ESI Working Papers

Life history traits constrain investments in costly neural and somatic embodied capital, potentially shaping the evolution of primate vocal communication systems. This study integrates life history theory with the social complexity hypothesis to test a sequential pathway from longevity to social dynamics to vocal repertoire size, using updated vocal repertoire data for McComb & Semple’s (2005) set of 42 non-human primate species, alongside measures of group size and within-group conflict. We compiled data on vocal repertoire size, within-group conflict, group size, endocranial volume, and maximum longevity, analysing these via Phylogenetic Sequential Canonical Cascade Model and ancestral character reconstructions. …

Human-Robot Interactions: Insights From Experimental And Evolutionary Social Sciences, Eric Schniter

ESI Working Papers

"Experimental research in the realm of human-robot interactions has focused on the behavioral and psychological influences affecting human interaction and cooperation with robots. A robot is loosely defined as a device designed to perform agentic tasks autonomously or under remote control, often replicating or assisting human actions. Robots can vary widely in form, ranging from simple assembly line machines performing repetitive actions to advanced systems with no moving parts but with artificial intelligence (AI) capable of learning, problem-solving, communicating, and adapting to diverse environments and human interactions. Applications of experimental human-robot interaction research include the design, development, and implementation of …

Enlightenment Ideals And Belief In Progress In The Run-Up To The Industrial Revolution: A Textual Analysis, Ali Almelhem, Murat Iyigun, Austin Kennedy, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

We trace the evolution of the language of science, religion, and political economy in the centuries leading to the British Industrial Revolution. Using textual analysis of 264,443 works printed in England between 1500 and 1900, we test whether British culture manifested a belief in progress associated with science and industry. Our analysis yields three main findings. First, there was a separation in the languages of science and religion beginning in the mid-18th century. Second, volumes using language at the nexus of science and political economy became more progress-oriented during the Enlightenment. Third, volumes using industrial language—especially those at the science-political …

Bitcoin And South African Stock Market Returns During Covid-19 Pandemic: A Test Of The Safe-Haven Hypothesis, Akaninyene U. Udom, Sopuru W. Nnamani

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper tests the safe-haven property of Bitcoin for South African stocks using Full and Diagonal BEKK-GARCH models. The study uses the Johannesburg stock exchange Top40 index, and bitcoin returns data before COVID-19 (August 2018 to December 2019) and during COVID-19 (January 2020 to June 2021). The results show that bitcoin cannot be considered as safe-haven for stocks in South Africa since it is weakly correlated with stock and had a high volatility during the Pandemic. Therefore, the safe-haven hypothesis of bitcoin on South African stocks is not true for the period under study. The policy implication is that bitcoin …