Econometrics Commons^™

Ad Hoc Disaster And Crop Insurance Programs May Reduce The Use Of Risk-Reducing Conservation Tillage Practices, Karina Schoengold, Ya Ying, Russell Headlee

CAFIO: Policy Research Group Policy Pagers

There is growing concern that the risks facing agricultural producers are increasing due to several factors that include the predicted effects of climate change leading to more frequent floods, droughts, and higher temperatures as well greater use of agricultural outputs for nonfood energy products.

These risks are partially managed through federal agricultural programs. Ad hoc disaster payments have frequently been used to provide financial support.

Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Models For Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Sarah O. Alade

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Short-term inflation forecasting is an essential component of the monetary policy projections at the Central Bank of Nigeria. This paper proposes four short-term headline inflation forecasting models using the SARIMA and SARIMAX processes and compares their performance using the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2011 to September 2013. According to the results the best forecasting performance is demonstrated by the model based on the all items CPI estimated using the SARIMAX model. This model is, therefore, recommended for use in short-term forecasting of headline inflation in Nigeria. The forecasting performance up to eight months ahead, of the models based on …

An Efficient Two Sample Capture-Recapture Model With High Recaptures, Danjuma Jibasen, Yusuf J. Adams

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper proposed an efficient two sample capture-recapture model (Ma) with high recaptures and compared it with the existing models like the model of no factor effect (Mo), behavioral response model (Mb) and the Petersen model (Ms), using simulated data. We found that the Petersen model provides a better estimate of the population size when the observations follow a hypergeometric distribution and the population is overestimated when recapture is high. It was also found that the proposed model provides a better estimator of the population size than the existing ones when the recapture is high. This model is particularly useful …

Causal Relationship Between Stock Market Index And Exchange Rate: Evidence From Nigeria, Abdulrasheed Zubair

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper uses Johansen’s cointegration to test for the possibility of cointegration and Granger-causality to estimate the causal relationship between stock market index and monetary indicators (exchange rate and M2) before and during the global financial crisis for Nigeria, using monthly data for the period 2001–2011. Results suggest absence of long-run relationship before and during the crisis. The Granger-causality tests show a uni-directional causality running from M2 to ASI before the crisis while during the period of the crisis there is absence of causality between the variables. This suggests that ASI show responsiveness to M2. Thus, absence of the direct …

Investigating Chaos In The Nigerian Asset And Resource Management (Arm) Discovery Fund, Ibiyinka A. Fuwape, Samuel T. Ogunjo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates chaos in a Nigerian mutual fund, Asset and Resource Management Company Limited (ARM) for a period of eleven years. The existence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the reconstruction of the phase space of the daily closing price of the fund and the delay time was quantified using mutual information function and the embedding dimension by the false nearest neighbours, where the values were identified to be 15 and 20 respectively. The presence of chaotic signals in the ARM data was further confirmed by the correlation dimension method which yielded a dimension of 2.2 …

Modeling The Nigerian Inflation Rates Using Periodogram And Fourier Series Analysis, Chukwuemeka O. Omekara,, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Micheal P. Ekerete

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This work considers the application of Periodogram and Fourier Series Analysis to model all-items monthly inflation rates in Nigeria from 2003 to 2011. The main objectives are to identify inflation cycles, fit a suitable model to the data and make forecasts of future values. To achieve these objectives, monthly all-items inflation rates for the period were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website. Periodogram and Fourier series methods of analysis are used to analyze the data. Based on the analysis, it was found that inflation cycle within the period was fifty one (51) months, which coincides with the …

Nigerian Stock Index: A Search For Optimal Garch Model Using High Frequency Data, Olaoluwa Simon Yaya

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper attempts to fit the best Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model for All Share Index (ASI) of Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) returns. A search is made on various GARCH variants specified on the assumptions of stationarity and asymmetry. Fractionally integrated types are also considered to capture the possibility of return series having property of long range dependency. The parameter estimations are carried out on the assumptions of normality and non-normality of GARCH innovations, with models and forecasts evaluated using information criteria and loss functions respectively. Under normality assumption, Hyperbolic GARCH (HYGARCH(1,d,1)) model is selected and Integrated GARCH (IGARCH(1,1)) …

Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria External Reserves, Iheanyichukwu S. Iwueze, Eleazar C. Nwogu, Valentine U. Nlebedim

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper discusses the levels and trend of external reserves in Nigeria. The relevance of this lies in the fact that it could help to monitor the reserves and throw early warning signal about any economic crisis. Monthly data on Nigeria external reserves for the period January 1999 to December, 2008 derived from the 2008 CBN Statistical Bulletin was analyzed using ARIMA model. Results of the analyses show that (i) the data requires logarithmic transformation to stabilize the variance and make the distribution normal (ii) the appropriate model that best describes the pattern in the transformed data is the Autoregressive- …

A Markov Decision Process Approach To Optimal Control Of A Multi-Level Hierarchical Manpower System, Akaninyene U. Udom

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

A recurrent problem in manpower control is how to attain the desired structural configuration in an optimal way, since it is possible to reach a desired structural configuration using different control inputs. The major aim of this paper is to develop a Markov Decision Process for optimal control of a Multi-level Hierarchical Manpower System (MHMS) by promotion and interdepartmental transfers. This is examined under control by intervention and contraction cost Markov Decision Process.

Hierarchical Decomposition Of U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure: 1984-1991 And 2000-2006, Steven D. Silver

Faculty Publications

We conceptualize structure in personal consumption by explicitly defining categorizations of goods and services that consumers typically make in defining and organizing these objectives in their heuristics. Results from estimation of an Almost Ideal (AI) Demand System in each of two study periods generally support the structural differentiation of consumption goods.

Financial Literacy And Financial Planning In France, Luc Arrondel, Majdi Debbich, Frédérique Savignac

Numeracy

We study financial literacy in France using the PATER survey and following the Lusardi and Mitchell (2011c) approach. We find that some subpopulations are less financially literate than others: women, young and old people as well as less-educated people are more likely to face difficulties when dealing with fundamental financial concepts such as risk diversification and inflation and interest compounding. We also find some differences in financial knowledge depending on the political opinion of the respondents. Finally we show that these differences in financial knowledge are correlated with differences in the propensity to plan: people who score higher on the …

Financial Literacy And Financial Behavior Among Young Adults: Evidence And Implications, Carlo De Bassa Scheresberg

Numeracy

This paper uses data from the 2009 National Financial Capability Study to examine financial literacy and financial behavior in a sample of approximately 4,500 young adults age 25 to 34. The paper finds that most young adults lack basic financial knowledge. Financial literacy is especially low among certain demographic groups, such as women, minorities, and lower-income or less-educated people. A high level of education, however, is not a guarantee of financial literacy. Only 49% of young respondents with a college education and 60% of young respondents with postgraduate education could correctly answer three simple questions designed to assess financial literacy. …

The Fii Model As An Investment In Patience: Exploring Time Preferences In Medellin, Colombia, Jennifer Graham

Master's Theses

The motivation for this research is to explore the success behind the Oakland based Family Independence Initiative (FII) as a model for poverty alleviation. During the period of June-December 2012, nearly 200 small business owners in Medellin, Colombia participated in a field experiment intended to replicate the FII model by randomizing the treatments of setting goals, receiving conditional payments, and participating in self-help groups, as well as the combinations thereof. The data shows that the subjects in the full FII treatment group achieve more goals and have significantly higher monthly sales than those subjects in any other treatment or control …

Does Child Sponsorship Have A Positive Impact On The Quality Of Life And Social Behavior Of Sponsored Children? Evidence From Indonesia, Mario Carrillo

Master's Theses

Relaxing an internal constraint of an individual at early stages of life is an approach that complements traditional policy interventions aimed to alleviate poverty. The Compassion International child sponsorship program focuses their work on the emotional, social, and spiritual development of sponsored children. This study investigates the impacts of child sponsorship on the quality of life and social behavior of sponsored children using age-eligibility as an instrument for sponsorship, a time preference experiment and a trust game. The study looks specifically at self-esteem, optimism, social trust, educational outcomes, patience and reciprocity of 286 sponsored children and 234 non-sponsored children between …

Does Child Sponsorship Have A Positive Impact On The Quality Of Life And Social Behavior Of Sponsored Children? Evidence From Indonesia, Mario Carrillo

Creative Activity and Research Day - CARD

Relaxing internal constraints of individuals at early stages of life is an approach that complements traditional policy interventions aimed to alleviate poverty. The Compassion International child sponsorship program focuses their work on the emotional, social, and spiritual development of sponsored children. This study uses age-eligibility as an instrument for sponsorship to investigate the impacts of child sponsorship on self-esteem, aspirational reference points, aspirational capital, reciprocity and patience. It also implements an innovative way of constructing summary indices using a method proposed by Anderson, M (2008). Results reveal child sponsorship does not have an effect on the sponsored children. In fact, …

Cafio-Prg Develops Novel Approach To Policy Research, Konstantinos Giannakas

CAFIO: Policy Research Group Policy Pagers

The University of Nebraska-Lincoln has received a grant from the United States Department of Agriculture under the Policy Research Centers Program. This grant has supported the establishment of a Policy Research Group (PRG) as part of the Center for Agricultural and Food Industrial Organization (CAFIO) in the Department of Agricultural Economics. CAFIO-PRG is led by the Project Director, Professor Konstantinos Giannakas, and its main focus is on the development of a novel, empirically relevant, integrated, multi-market framework of policy analysis.

Consumer Attitudes And Labeling Regime Key To The Market Potential Of Food Nanotechnology, Miah Tran, Amalia Yiannaka, Konstantinos Giannakas

CAFIO: Policy Research Group Policy Pagers

Research shows that, even though most consumers lack knowledge and understanding of the technology, they nevertheless have strong opinions as to its potential risks and benefits. Advocates are determined to not repeat the mistakes of biotechnology. Understanding the factors determining the market acceptance of food nanotechnology and its potential impact on the different interest groups involved can inform the design of effective policies and strategies governing food nanotechnology innovations.

Country-Of-Origin-Labeling Creates Winners And Losers Among Consumers, Producers, And Retailers, Konstantinos Giannakas, Alejandro Plastina, Daniel Pick

CAFIO: Policy Research Group Policy Pagers

Public Law 107-171, the United States Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002, required country-of-origin labeling (COOL) for beef, lamb, pork, fish, perishable agricultural commodities, and peanuts. While the aim is to benefit domestic consumers by allowing them to make informed decisions, the effects of COOL have been the subject of a heated on-going debate. Advocates of COOL argue the existence of an “overwhelming” consumer support for country of origin information and benefits that substantially outweigh the costs of this labeling regime. Opposing groups have expressed concerns about the potential competitive disadvantage that non-integrated producers might face due to …

Consumer-Oriented Gm Products Can Hurt Producers, Konstantinos Giannakas, Rim Lassoued

CAFIO: Policy Research Group Policy Pagers

Despite their important agronomic benefits to agricultural producers, GM products (GMPs) have been facing a, rather strong, consumer opposition. This opposition varies significantly between countries and so does the countries’ regulatory response to products of biotechnology. While the US treats biotech products as substantially equivalent to their conventional counterparts and does not require their segregation and labeling, the European Union (EU), based on its “precautionary principle” and consumers’ “right to know,” has instituted a mandatory labeling regime that is regarded as the strictest in the world.

Food Labeling Standards Have Significant Welfare And Distributional Impacts, Konstantinos Giannakas, Nicholas Kalaitzandonakes, Alexandre Magnier

CAFIO: Policy Research Group Policy Pagers

Discussions on the appropriate regulatory norms for genetically modified (GM) foods date back to the early 1980s. Thirty years later, a consensus on what such norms should be remains elusive. Some countries, including the United States and Canada, consider GM foods substantially equivalent to their conventional counterparts and do not require segregation and labeling of these products. Others, including the European Union, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, Australia, and China have introduced mandatory labeling regimes.

Empathy Nudging Increases Conservation Of Farming Land, Natalia V. Czap, Hans J. Czap, Gary D. Lynne, Mark E. Burbach

CAFIO: Policy Research Group Policy Pagers

One of the major challenges of environmental policy with regard to conservation is that it must often rely on voluntary and non-selfish actions of individuals. Traditionally policy makers rely on direct regulation and financial incentives, but both approaches face problems. Regulations may lead to resentment and the costs of perfect enforcement are prohibitively high. Financial incentives can be perverse and may lead to unintended consequences, including crowding out of intrinsic motivation. In addition, behavioral economics and economic psychology studies demonstrate that the assumptions of the neoclassical economic models (such as self-interest only, rationality, and willpower) on which the policy design …

2013 Farm Bill: An Experimental Test Of The Senate And House Proposals, Natalia V. Czap, Hans J. Czap, Gary Lynne, Mark E. Burbach

CAFIO: Policy Research Group Policy Pagers

The 2008 Farm Bill currently guides agricultural and related environmental/conservation policy. Versions proposed by the United States Senate and the House of Representatives, to be implemented in the 2013 Farm Bill after differences are resolved, aim to achieve environmental (and other food related) goals, while also seeking significant spending cuts. While both versions propose to eliminate the Direct Payments program, they differ with respect to how other crop supports should work and whether crop insurance subsidies should be linked to conservation practices. The Senate Bill supports a policy design based on cross‐compliance, that is, crop insurance subsidies are conditional on …

Does Information Lead To Household Electricity Conservation?, Devon M. Kristiansen

Economics Honors Projects

This paper estimates the effect of information on residential electricity consumption. Household reading expenditure, education level of the household head, and state “green” electricity pricing program participation rate represent the probability that a household has encountered information relating the carbon emission externalities of energy consumption and human-driven climate change. Reading expenditure has a significant negative effect on household electricity consumption. Initial increases in educational attainment increase electricity consumption, but education beyond high school reduces it. The predicted social norm effect of green pricing participation is insignificant.

The Staffing Of Presidential Assistants: Their Effect On Presidential Success In The House Of Representatives, Nicholas R. Jesteadt

Gettysburg Economic Review

This paper examines the Congressional success of United States Presidents based on the reported Congressional Quarterly Presidential Box Scores. Their individual success is examined as an effect of the senior staff member a President chooses and whether they are chosen from the campaign, personal experience, or previous administrations. It is important for a President to consider the origins of these staffers as these Assistants to the President act as the body of the President’s administration. The econometric analysis presented reveals several interesting results. First, the predominance of a President to choose staff members from his campaign shows no significant impact …

The Gettysburg Economic Review, Volume 6, Spring 2012

Gettysburg Economic Review

No abstract provided.

Willingness To Pay For Country-Of-Origin Labeled, Traceable, And Bse-Tested Beef, Kar Ho Lim

Theses and Dissertations--Agricultural Economics

While previous studies have investigated country-of-origin effect from various angles, it remained unexplored the extent to which Country of Origin Labeling (COOL) affects U.S. beef imports from specific countries. Using choice-experiment data, willingness to pay (WTP) for Australian, Canadian beef in addition to other enhancement attributes were estimated with a Mixed Logit Model and a Latent Class Model. The results revealed unobserved taste heterogeneity and important differences in the WTP between the imported and domestic steak. The Latent Class Model estimated the range of discount needed for consumers to switch from U.S. to Canadian steak was a range from $1.09 …

Contributions Of Financial Sector Reforms And Credit Supply To Nigerian Agricultural Sector (1978-2009), Anthony O. Onoja, M. E. Onu, S. Ajodo-Ohiemi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study analyzed the trends and pattern of institutional credit supply to agriculture during pre- and post-financial reforms along with their determinants. It then compared the effects of reform policies on access to institutional credits in Nigerian agricultural sector before and after the reforms (1978 - 1985; and 1986 -2009). Relying mainly on time series data from CBN and NBS, it used ordinary least squares method (linear, semi-log and double log) to model the determinants of banking sector lending to the agricultural sector during the review period. The models were subjected to several econometric tests before accepting one. Chow test …

Determinants Of Foreign Reserves In Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach, David Irefin, Baba N. Yaaba

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

On global scale, central banks’ holdings of foreign reserves have escalated sharply in recent years. World international reserves holdings have risen significantly from US$1.2 trillion in 1995 to nearly US$10.0 trillion in June 2011. Dominant among these reserves are concentrated in the hands of few countries. Ten major holders of foreign reserves are mostly from Asia. Oil exporting countries in Africa and the Middle East are not left out in this trend. Nigeria’s foreign reserves rose from US$5.5 billion in 1999 to US$62.40 billion in July 2008, making Nigeria the twenty-fourth largest reserves holder in the world. This pace of …

Effects Of Exchange Rate Movements On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Eme O. Akpan, Johnson A. Atan

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the effect of exchange rate movements on real output growth in Nigeria. Based on quarterly series for the period 1986 to 2010, the paper examines the possible direct and indirect relationship between exchange rates and GDP growth. The relationship is derived in two ways using a simultaneous equations model within a fully specified (but small) macroeconomic model. A Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) technique was explored. The estimation results suggest that there is no evidence of a strong direct relationship between changes in exchange rate and output growth. Rather, Nigeria’s economic growth has been directly affected by …

Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: Consistency, Persistency & Severity Analyses, Babatunde Adeoye, Akinwande A. Atanda

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The adoption of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986 resulted in the transition from fixed exchange rate regime to floating exchange rate regime in Nigeria. Ever since, the exchange rate of naira vis-à-vis the U.S dollar has attained varying rates all through different time horizons. On this basis, this study examines the consistency, persistency, and severity (degree) of volatility in exchange rate of Nigerian currency (naira) vis-a-vis the United State dollar using monthly time series data from 1986 to 2008. The standard Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) model was used to analyze the long-run consistency of …