Economics Commons^™

Northern Entrepreneur's Counterfeiting Of Confederate Currency And The Impact It Had On Inflation, Raymond Rector

Undergraduate Honors Thesis Collection

This thesis, "Northern Entrepreneur's Counterfeiting of Confederate Currency and The Impact It Had On Inflation" takes an in depth look at the history of counterfeiting the currency of the Confederate States of America during the Civil War by entrepreneurs who saw the introduction of a new currency as an opportunity to profit. The thesis begins by providing background information on several major counterfeiters and their actions before and during the Civil War, as well as other sources of counterfeit bills not normally considered by scholars. The thesis also looks at the effects that this illegitimate increase in the money supply …

Fiscal Forecasts At The Fomc: Evidence From The Greenbooks, Dean D. Croushore, Simon Van Norden

Economics Faculty Publications

This paper examines fiscal policy forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee and its influence on U.S. monetary policy. The forecasts contain useful information beyond that in the CBO’s forecasts. Fiscal forecast errors are only weakly correlated with forecast errors for inflation and output growth, but those for the budget surplus are highly correlated with those for the unemployment rate and the output gap. Some fiscal variables can also account for a significant fraction of the “exogenous” changes in the federal funds rate target that Romer and Romer (2004) studied, consistent with the board’s statements on the importance of …

Inflation And Public Debt Dynamics In Asean, Yuthana Sethapramote, Athakrit Thepmongkol

DLSU Business & Economics Review

This paper studies how inflation affects the debt dynamics focusing on six ASEAN countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Using projection data, we perform simulations of debt dynamics under various inflation policies. It results that Vietnam has the highest ability of inflating debt, while the Philippines is lastly ranked. Moreover, the optimal inflation rate for each member country and also the common policy rate for ASEAN integration are calculated under additional debt management motive. We found that if the ASEAN happened to use the common inflation policy rate, Malaysia and the Philippines would not be much affected …

Three Essays On The Effects Of Policies On Price Differentials, Eun Son Lim

Theses and Dissertations

Free Trade Agreements and Purchasing Power Parity: Evidence from South Korea

We explore whether a decline in tariffs after the passage of South Korea’s free trade agreements yields evidence more favorable to purchasing power parity between South Korea and its free trade partners. Our data include two aggregated measures of prices – the CPI and the PPI – as well as disaggregated CPI data for six selected, highly tradable items: food, alcoholic beverages, non-alcoholic beverages, clothing, footwear and tobacco products. We study nine free trade partners using data for the sample period January 1998-November 2017. Utilizing a battery of conventional …

Dynamic Poverty Decomposition Analysis: An Application To The Philippines, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we propose a new method of poverty decomposition. Our method remedies the shortcomings of existing methods and has some desirable properties such as time-revision consistency and subperiod additivity. It integrates the existing methods of growth-redistribution decomposition and sector based decomposition, because it allows us to decompose poverty change into growth and redistribution components for each group (e.g., regions or sectors) in the economy. We extend out method to have six components and provide empirical application to the Philippines for the period of 1985 to 2009.

The Price Revolution In The Ottoman Context: Economic Upheaval In The Sixteenth Century, Dylan Lawrence Russell

Middle Eastern Communities and Migrations Student Research Paper Series

The inflationary pressures of the Price Revolution had an impact on Ottoman agricultural organization, state finances, industry, and the growth of corruption. This analysis will examine the causes, effects, and scope of inflation in the sixteenth century. Inflation alone did not cause these drastic changes, as other very significant developments also contributed to the turbulent economic environment. However inflation did, in fact, influence many basic transformations, including shifts in wealth, power, and the enrichment of specific social classes at the expense of others.

Exchange Rate Management In Period Of Economic Uncertainty, Emmanuel U. Ukeje

Bullion

The paper examines current developments in the management of foreign exchange by the Central Bank of Nigeria in the period of economic uncertainty. It explains how the Bank has implemented different regimes of foreign exchange in order to maintain the external value of its currency as well as ensure them.

Interest Rate Dynamics And Real Output Behaviour In Nigeria: A Simulation Analysis, S. Rapu, G. Sanni, D. Penzin, N. Nkang, P. Golit, H. Okafor, E. Ibi

Economic and Financial Review

The declining output growth observed from the second quarter of 2014, which led to calls for a more expansionary monetary policy despite rising inflationary pressure, necessitated a reassessment of the impact of interest rate on real output growth in Nigeria. Using a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model and quarterly data from 2000:Q4 to 2015:Q3, the effect of monetary policy transmission (interest rate dynamics) on real output performance was estimated. Although results of the simulation analysis were somewhat mixed, those of the impulse response functions indicated that positive shocks to monetary policy rate (MPR) produced a negative and small impact on …

Evaluation Of Monetary, Fiscal And External Inflationary Sources In Nigeria, Samson A. Aladejare

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

This study focuses on evaluating the monetary, fiscal and external inflationary sources in Nigeria. The Auto-Regressive Distributive Lag estimation technique was adapted to capture these effects. Empirical findings of the study showed that overall, the main determining cause of inflation in both short run and long run periods in Nigeria, are more of monetary and external factors and less of fiscal sources. Specifically, the problem of inflation in Nigeria appears to be more of structural phenomenon than monetary in the short run. However, in the long run, combinations of monetary and external factors tend to be the major cause of …

The Hall Memorial Lectures, Lewis Karstensson

Molasky Family Department of Economics and Real Estate Faculty Research

This publication is a record of the Hall Memorial Lectures in Economics delivered at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, in the 1980s.

Contents include:

Wallace C. Peterson, "Contemporary Macroeconomics: A House Divided" (Dec. 1, 1983)

Wallace C. Peterson, "Economic Stabilization and Inflation" (May 8, 1984)

Murray N. Rothbard, "The Five Faces of Reaganomics" (Nov. 27, 1984)

Murray N. Rothbard, "The Terrible Simplifiers: The Case Against the Flat Tax" (May 7, 1985)

Larry D. Singell, "Youth Unemployment: An American Crisis" (May 14, 1986)

Murray N. Rothbard, "Is There Life After Reaganomics?" (Oct. 22, 1987)

Murray N. Rothbard, "Deficits and Taxes: …

A Retrospective Insight Into Pakistan's Exchange Rate Regimes And Their Impact On The Economy, Lalarukh Ejaz, Madeeha Akhtar

Business Review

Nuclear tests carried out by Pakistan in May 1998 had a distinctive impact on the evolution of the exchange rate. This case describes what happened to the exchange rate before and after the nuclear tests and focuses on the overall impact of Pakistan’s transition from a hostile relationship with the US in the post-Cold War era to becoming an ally of the US in the war on terror. This case can be used to study the concepts of real and nominal exchange rates, the linkage between exchange rate policy and external balance, how exchange rate can be used as a …

The Causes Of Persistent Inflation In Nigeria, Victor O. Asekunowo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study sought to identify the traditional and institutional inflation variables responsible for inflation phenomenon and the magnitude of the contribution of the identified variables to the rise in general price level. Secondary data on key macroeconomic variables in the economy from 1974 to 2013 were used. The data collected were analysed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test. The results showed that there existed a longrun co-movement among the variables. Also, the ordinary least squares estimate showed that Real Effective Exchange Rate, Lagged Consumer Price Index, Real Broad Money and Real Profits were statistically significant in influencing Consumer …

The Nominalistic Principle: A Legal Approach To Inflation, Deflation, Devaluation And Revaluation, Alain H. Sheer

Georgia Journal of International & Comparative Law

No abstract provided.

The Impact Of Oil Price On Ghana's Inflation, Albert Mcbell Ninepence

Young African Leaders Journal of Development

World oil price is a momentous determinant of global economic performance. In most cases, when oil prices skyrockets, it leads to a transfer of income from importing countries to exporting countries through trade shifts. The link between oil and inflation is mostly seen as being correlational. The direct relationship between oil and inflation was evident in the 1970’s nevertheless this relationship started to deteriorate after the 1980’s. Quite a cornucopia of researchers have made relentless inquiry on the macroeconomics impact of world oil price shocks and hikes on economic growth and consumer price inflation on importing countries. Also, an infinitesimal …

Essays On Monetary Policy Rules And Inflation Dynamics, Saad Ahmad

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

There has been a growing trend to utilize nonlinear models to analyze key issues in monetary policy and international macroeconomics. Using traditional linear models to understand nonlinear relationships can often lead to inaccurate inference and erroneous policy recommendations. The three essays in this dissertation explore nonlinearity in the Federal Reserve’s policy response as well as between a country’s inflation dynamics and integration in the global economy. My aim in accounting for potential nonlinearity is to get a better understanding of the policy makers’ opportunistic approach to monetary policy and evaluate the inflation globalization hypothesis, which basically predicts that global factors …

A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (Dsge) Model Of Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Domestic Prices In Nigeria, M. A. Adebiyi Dr, C. N. Mordi Dr

CBN Occasional Papers

This paper employed a Bayesian framework of DSGE model to estimate the pass-through effect of exchange rate to domestic inflation in Nigeria, using quarterly data for the period 1990 to 2011. The response of inflation rate to exchange rate shocks was found to be positive and statistically significant in the short-run. The pass-through was small and incomplete with almost zero in quarter 1 (0.09), rose to 0.18 in quarter 2 and declined to 0.07 and 0.01 in quarters 3 and 4, respectively. These findings were lower than those obtained elsewhere by other authors. The low pass-through reported in this study …

Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty In Nigeria: A Test Of The Friedman’S Hypothesis, Muhammad A. Abamanga, Umar Musa, Audu Salihu, Ubong S. Udoette, Valli T. Adejo, Offiong N. Edem, Hyariju Bukar, Chidinma T. Udechukwu-Peterclaver

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Nigeria. It attempts to test whether the Friedman’s hypothesis – that a rise in the average rate of inflation leads to more uncertainty about future rate of inflation - holds for the country. The monthly inflation data spanning the period 1960:1 to 2014:07 was used. Inflation uncertainty was modeled as a time varying process using a GARCH framework. Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) complemented by seasonal ARIMA (2, 0, 2) (0, 0, 1) was employed to model the inflation uncertainty. Given that inflation series display structural breaks, this was …

Analysis Of Inflation Dynamics In Nigeria (1981 – 2015), Sani Bawa, Ismaila S. Abdullahi, Adamu Ibrahim

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examined the dynamics of inflationary process in Nigeria over the period 1981 – 2015, using the bounds testing approach to cointegration. Empirical results indicated that inflation in Nigeria proxied by CPI exhibited a strong degree of inertia. The econometric results showed that past inflation and average rainfall appeared to have been the main determinants of inflationary process in Nigeria over the study period. We also found strong evidence of the importance of money supply in the inflation process, lending credence to the dominance of the monetarist proposition on inflation dynamics in Nigeria. Thus, the paper recommended among others, …

Hyperbolic Memory Discounting And The Political Business Cycle, T. Scott Findley

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

The vintage political business cycle framework of Nordhaus (1975) represents the idea that the macroeconomic business cycle is manipulated opportunistically by an incumbent government to achieve re-election. A key assumption in this prototypical framework is that voters discount their memories about unemployment and inflation at a constant rate. Yet starting with Ebbinghaus (1885) and Jost (1897), a large body of research in psychology documents an empirical regularity that has come to be known as Jost's Second Law of Forgetting-individuals discount recent memories at a higher rate compared to the rate at which they discount older memories. I find that incorporating …

Inflationary Dynamics In Guatemala, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Miguel Martinez, Wm. Doyle Smith, Adam G. Walke

Departmental Papers (E & F)

Short-run price dynamics for Guatemala are analyzed using a linear transfer function methodology. This approach has previously been employed for other national economies such as the United States, Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador, and Nigeria. The data for this study range from 1960 to 2010. Inflation is measured using the consumer price index. Explanatory variables include the monetary base, real output, interest rates, and the exchange rate. All of the estimated coefficients exhibit the arithmetic signs hypothesized by the theoretical model. Almost all of the parameter estimates satisfy the 5-percent significance criterion and all exhibit economically plausible magnitudes. Estimation results indicate that …

Dollarization, Inflation And Interest Rate In Nigeria, David O. Olayungbo, Kehinde T. Ajuwon

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the relationship among dollarization, inflation and interest rate in Nigeria for the period 1986-2015Q1. It adopts inter-temporal model of money-in-utility (MIU) with an estimation technique of structural vector autoregression (SVAR). Empirical evidence shows that dollarization index has been on the increase in Nigeria since 1994, despite stable and low inflation and interest rate. Results of the cointegration show long run equilibrium among dollarization, inflation and interest rate. The Granger causality test reveals that there is a unidirectional relationship from dollarization to inflation in Nigeria. This suggests that policies that aim to reduce inflation in Nigeria must include …

Do Survey-Based Expectations Mimic Inflation In Nigeria?, Ibrahim Adamu

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Survey-based expectations are mostly used by monetary authorities for inflation forecasts and evaluation of the credibility of their inflation fighting policies. It is also an important link in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. This study examined the predictive ability of business expectations survey (BES) inflation index on movements of inflation as well as the relationship between BES indicators and selected macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria. The study employed the modified Kaminsky-Reinhart (KLR) Signal Approach, correlation and trend analyses. The results of the modified KLR approach showed that BES inflation index predicts inflation rate only between 5 to 20 per cent threshold, …

The Effects Of Quantitative Easing In The United States: Implications For Future Central Bank Policy Makers, Matthew Q. Rubino

Senior Honors Projects, 2010-2019

The purpose of this thesis is to examine the effects of the Federal Reserve’s recent bond buying programs, specifically Quantitative Easing 1, Quantitative Easing 2, Operation Twist (or the Fed’s Maturity Extension Program), and Quantitative Easing 3. In this study, I provide a picture of the economic landscape leading up to the deployment of the programs, an overview of quantitative easing including each program’s respective objectives, and how and why the Fed decided to implement the programs. Using empirical analysis, I measure each program’s effectiveness by applying four models including a yield curve model, an inflation model, a money supply …

Openness And Inflation In The Long Run, David Beheshti, Richarch Evans

Journal of Undergraduate Research

Since the collapse of the Bretton-Woods Agreement in 1973, inflation rates have been steadily decreasing in most of the developed world. At the same time, countries have become increasingly open to international trade (see Figure 1). A possible explanation is that openness to trade and inflation are negatively correlated. This relationship is predicted in a highly-cited theoretical model by economist Kenneth Rogoff (1985) and in most of the previous literature on the subject. However, a more recent theoretical paper (Evans 2012) predicts that countries may engage in inflationary policy in order to tax foreign holders of domestic currency. As countries …

2015-1 The Interactive Evolution Of Economic Ideas And Experience - The Case Of Canadian Inflation Targeting, David Laidler

Economic Policy Research Institute. EPRI Working Papers

No abstract provided.

An Evaluation Of The Proposal To Implement A Chained Weighted Cpi, David Lock

Applied Economics Theses

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently developed a way to view price changes in the economy called the chained consumer price index (C-CPI-U). There is much debate over this calculation because, if implemented, it would greatly affect government spending on programs such as Social Security and Veteran benefits. A quick overview of how the C-CPI-U is calculated does not appear to be anything to disagree with. A conclusion which can be drawn, and will be discussed in this thesis, is that the major controversy lies in what will happen to those who benefit from possible reduction of benefits in …

What Lies At The Core Of Core Inflation? An Empirical Analysis To Identify The Determinants Of Core Inflation In Pakistan, Mehwish Ghulam Ali, Muhammad Ather Elahi, Qazi Masood Ahmed

Business Review

Core inflation leads to erosion of purchasing power and distorts income distribution in favor of the rich and the creditors. Further, it aggravates poverty due to its regressive effect. By targeting core inflation, the Central Bank attempts to reduce poverty and improve income distribution. The Central Bank does and should target core inflation for the aforementioned objectives, hence it becomes necessary to identify if factors apart from monetary policy affect core inflation. This paper aims to identify the determinants of core inflation in Pakistan. This study is motivated by the lack of work done in identifying the determinants of core …

An Overview And Dynamics Of Financial Market Development In Nigeria And Imperatives For Exchange Rate Stability, E.U. Ukeje

Economic and Financial Review

The article discusses the important role money market plays in the economic development of any country which provides the platform for central banks to influence short-term interest rates,

Exchange Rate And Inflation: Is There A Relationship In Nigeria, C.N.O. Mordi

Economic and Financial Review

This paper attempts to examine the link between exchange rate and domestic price level in Nigeria. Employing the VAR technique, the study used monthly series of inter-bank rate, world export prices, real gross domestic product, oil prices and consumer price index from 2000MI to 2015MI. The results from the study show that exchange rate pass-through to price level is high. a shock to exchange rate (depreciation) would increase domestic price by 0.72 per cent in the first month. The effect rose to 0.82, 0.85 and 0.86 per cent in month 2,4 and 6, respectively, before it began to fall. By …

Dollarisation: Any Possibility In Nigeria And Its Effects On Economic Management And Exchange Rate Stability, E.A. Abolo

Economic and Financial Review

This paper examined various type and definitions of dollarization, the possibility of dollarization in Nigeria and its effect on economic management. The author emphasized on unofficial dollarization and its benefits and costs.