Economics Commons^™

Reinventing Opportunities For Argentina: Vista Oil And Gas, Emiliano Cabrera

Dartmouth College Master’s Theses

In the last century, Argentina faced an astonishing economic downturn that remains until today, frustrating all who learn its economic history, explore the country's potential, and stay in tune with its political-economic present. This research examines Argentina's economic history, revises the main drivers that signed its economic drama, and proposes guidelines to address new opportunities by encouraging its private sector. By using Vista Oil and Gas as an exemplary case, this work proposes Vista's business model as an initiative perfectly compatible with the primary macroeconomic needs that Argentina currently has that should be highly considered for developing its private sector. …

The Impact Of Immigration On Unemployment And Wages In The United States: Evidence From Seven States, Carol Ohenewa Bruce-Tagoe

Masters Theses

Immigration and Immigration policies have been a source of debate for political parties in the United States, especially its impact on the labor market. This research investigates how immigration affects unemployment and wages in the U.S. by using a balanced panel dataset of seven states from 2007 to 2019. The states (California, New York, Florida, Texas, New Jersey, Illinois, and Massachusetts) sampled recorded the highest immigrant population and contain key gateway cities. I estimate two models: unemployment growth rate, and wages growth rate. The results of the pooled OLS estimation confirm that immigration has a trivial impact on the U.S. …

College Street Journal (October 2021), College Of The Holy Cross

College Street Journal

College Street Journal serves as a student platform for business-related news, opportunities and resources at Holy Cross. Readers will discover a broad range of topics including relevant news and economic issues, career development opportunities and advice, as well as Ciocca center and campus-wide opportunities to grow outside of the classroom.

This edition includes student and professor articles on macroeconomic topics, market-moving issues, inflation, semiconductor shortage, ESG investing and government regulation as they relate to the environment and crypto, and research surrounding capital flows, U.S. foreign debt, and pension reforms around the globe.

An Empirical Examination Of The Impact Of Economic Structural Change On Income Inequality: Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Approach, Maha Elhini, Rasha Hammam

Economics

This paper employs structural growth perspective to the analysis of income inequality in 43 countries over the period 2003-2017.The study utilizes two different panel estimation techniques. First, the panel least squares regression examines the relevance of Kuznets effect of the different economic sectors; agriculture, manufacturing and services on income inequality. Second, the pooled mean group (PMG) estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels gauges the long run impact of the change in sectoral value added as a proxy for structural change on inequality. PMG presents short run adjustments to be country-specific due to the widely different impacts of macroeconomic conditions and vulnerability …

Skbi Big 5 Survey 2021 August, Singapore Management University

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

The latest survey results convey an upshift in growth projections of the five largest economies in aggregate accompanied by higher inflation, especially this year and to a lesser extent next year. The aggregate “Big5” median real GDP growth projections for 2021 and 2022 were raised to 6.7% (up in US, CN and EA but down in IN and JP) and 4.9% (all except US), respectively. The overall “Big5” median CPI inflation forecasts were nudged up to 2.6% (higher in US, IN and EA but lower in CN) and 2.4% (in US, IN and EA some), respectively, for this year and …

Squawking About Persistently Higher Inflation?, Thomas Lam

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

All signs point to an uncertain path for inflation in the future. While inflation is set to stay prospectively higher in the US in the near-term, it's unlikely to remain so.

Trade And Structural Change: Focusing On The Specifics, Andrew Greenland, John W. Lopresti

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Using a newly digitized database encompassing the universe of tariff lines across five US trade policy regimes between 1900 and 1940, we show that price dynamics combine with industry reliance on specific tariffs to generate large swings in average tariff levels. Intra-policy variation in tariffs is strongly predictive of import growth throughout our sample. Using linked Census data, we quantify the effects of imports on structural change in this era. We find that import growth decreases labor force participation and inhibits the transition into the expanding manufacturing and service sectors, especially among the young.

Measuring The Impact Of Loan-To-Deposit Ratio (Ldr) On Banks' Liquidity In Nigeria, A. O. Adenuga, J. A. Mohammed, C. V. Laniyan, A. A. Akintola, O. C Asuzu

Economic and Financial Review

The study measures the impact of loan to deposit ratio (LDR) on Banks' liquidity in Nigeria between 2000Q1 and 2019Q3. The paper applied the Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR-X) methodology for estimation and forecasting. The result suggests that an LDR of 70.0 per cent, which reduces Banks' liquidity from N187.95 billion in 2019Q4, through N153.09 billion in 2020Q2 to close at N135.15 billion in 2020Q4, may require cautious acceptance. Thus, increasing LDR beyond 70.0 per cent may impact Banks' liquidity negatively. Furthermore, a direct relationship is established between LDR and inflation. The findings conform to a priori expectations as higher LDRs …

What Do Price Equations Say About Future Inflation?, Ray C. Fair

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper uses an econometric approach to examine the inflation consequences of the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021. Price equations are estimated and used to forecast future inflation. The main results are: 1) The data suggest that price equations should be specified in level form rather than in first or second difference form. 2) There is some slight evidence of nonlinear demand effects on prices. 3) There is no evidence that demand effects have gotten smaller over time. 4) The stimulus from the act combined with large wealth effects from past household savings, rising stock prices, and rising housing …

Are Small Businesses The Framework For A Successful U.S. Economy?, Carson Clevenger

Accounting Undergraduate Honors Theses

This thesis will investigate the impact of small businesses on the United States’ economy. I will be assessing several impact areas including gross domestic product, employment, and local economy contribution. This thesis will cover a study from the time periods of 1998-2014 of the gross domestic product and employment levels and will use numbers from the years of 2018- present for other impact areas. Furthermore, I will be analyzing certain sectors of the economy, comparing small businesses contribution to corporate contribution, in order to discuss if small businesses are necessary for our country’s successful economy.

Skbi Big 5 Survey 2021 February, Singapore Management University

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

The latest survey results suggest that the five largest economies collectively is projected to snapback to almost 6% in 2021, a modest upgrade from the August median, following an unprecedented preliminary contraction of roughly 4% last year (in real GDP terms). The 2022 median growth forecast of slightly above 4.5%, while slower, is still respectable, outstripping its pre-COVID 10-year average pace by more than half a percentage point. The aggregate upgrade in 2021, however, obscures the lopsided nature and highly uneven contour of the ongoing recovery. The bulk of the upward revision to growth was mainly due to IN (to …

2021-5 Lucas (1972), A Personal View From The Wrong Side Of The Subsequent Fifty Years, David Laidler

Department of Economics Research Reports

Lucas (1972) was a paper that permanently changed the course of macroeconomics, even though its “money supply surprise” model lost its central place in the area within a decade because of empirical difficulties. However, Lucas’s novel methodology, based on clearing markets and rational expectations, still dominates orthodox macroeconomic theorising. An unfortunate side effect of this has been that, because mainstream models have no analytic room for money to play a key role in economic activity, the theoretical case for taking that role seriously was undermined just at the time when traditional monetarist macro-models were facing empirical problems. The consequences of …

Gambling Autonomy: The Impact Of Latin American Central Bank Independence On Risk Aversion Within Monetary Policy Implementation, Julia Duarte Schulman

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the effect of Latin American central bank independence (CBI) on risk-averse behaviors in monetary policy. Using a fixed effects panel regression, I document how multiple forms of monetary policy are influenced by different macroeconomic variables, conflicting policy targets and central bank independence benchmarks. The results show that increasing CBI has a positive impact on risk aversion, especially in policies targeting inflation and money supply. Additionally, the results show that interest rates and reserve requirements were especially susceptible to changes in independence, while the monetary base and volume of domestic credit were less influenced. Finally, as time and …

Stock Market Correlations To Economic Indicators, Anthony K. Quandt

Honors Program: Senior Projects (Public)

For this project, I researched how representative the S&P 500 (a common index of choice to represent the market) is of the economic well-being of the US. I found that stock market data can be used an as indicator of the economic well-being of the U.S.. The results do not indicate that the stock market leads to recovery, but it does suggest that it is correlated with recovery. In my analysis, I compared the S&P 500 performance to four different economic indicators: Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), The Consumer Price Index (CPI), Average Weekly Private Wages, and Unemployment Rate. A …

Skbi Big 5 Survey 2020 August, Singapore Management University

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

The COVID-19 pandemic led to whopping downward revisions to 2020 real GDP growth among the Big5 economies, on average greater than 7%-points (ranging from roughly 3.5%-points for China to more than 10%-points for India). The forecast revisions to headline inflation were less sizable and more uneven, perhaps because of the confluence of supply and demand influences. The 2021 median GDP forecast is expected to turn positive overall, with a balanced risk assessment for most of the Big5 (but a coin toss in IN and US), but the growth reversal is likely to be highly uneven. While China regains its prior …

Is Inflation Always And Everywhere A Monetary Phenomenon? Evidence From Nigeria, J. K. Achua, H. Nagado, I. I. Okafor

Economic and Financial Review

Is inflation always a monetary phenomenon in Nigeria? Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) results of Nigerian data, spanning 2005q1-2017q4, indicate that changes in money supply have no long-run significant impact on domestic price level behaviour. The results, however, reveal that non-monetary factors: import, global oil price, exchange rate, inflation expectation, fuel pump price and monetary policy rate significantly upsurge inflationary pressure. Conversely, household income (the shadow of unemployment) significantly dampens inflationary pressure while fiscal deficits moderate the pressure. The findings establish the dominance of structural and fiscal dynamics in the inflation equation of the economy.

Skbi Big 5 Survey 2020 February, Singapore Management University

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

On balance, our overall read of the latest multiyear Big5 survey results implies the following economy-at-risk scale (least to most): India, US, Euro Area, Japan and China (i.e., India’s economy might be least at-risk, while China is deemed to be most at-risk). Broadly, survey participants expect the risk assessment to GDP growth to be skewed to the downside in 2020 followed by a more balanced backdrop in 2021. But participants seem to be more divided, with most responses favoring “downside” or/and “balanced” risks, on the 2022 growth environment. The risks to headline inflation in 2020, however, appear to be more …

Asymmetric Impact Of Oil Price On Inflation In Nigeria, Sani Bawa, Ismaila S. Abdullahi, Danladi S. Tukur, Sani I. Barda, Yusuf J. Adams

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation in Nigeria. A Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach was applied on quarterly data spanning 1999Q1 to 2018Q4. Results showed that oil price increases led to increase in headline, core and food measures of inflation in Nigeria. However, a decline in oil price resulted in a decline in the marginal cost of production and culminated in moderation of domestic inflation. Furthermore, negative oil price shocks led to higher inflation in Nigeria when exchange rate is dropped from the models, indicating that exchange rate absorbed the impact of oil price …

Inflation Dynamics And Exchange Rate Pass-Through In Nigeria: Evidence From Augmented Nonlinear New Keynesian Philips Curve, Usman A. Bello, Aliyu R. Sanusi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper estimates a nonlinear augmented New Keynesian Philips Curve for Nigeria using the Smooth Transition Regression model for the period 1995Q1 to 2018Q2. The empirical evidence reveals the existence of two inflation regimes during the period under review. Food inflation, energy inflation, firms’ marginal cost, and imported inflation account for most of the changes in the prices of composite consumers’ basket in low exchange rate depreciation regime. However, the exchange rate solely explains price changes in the composite consumers’ basket when inflation switches to high regime. Similarly, the results show that regime change in inflation is largely caused by …

Revisions To Pce Inflation Measures: Implications For Monetary Policy, Dean Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

This paper examines the characteristics of the revisions to the inflation rate as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index both including and excluding food and energy prices. These data series play a major role in the Federal Reserve's analysis of inflation. We examine the magnitude and patterns of revisions to both PCE inflation rates. We can forecast data revisions in real time from the initial release to the annual revision released in the following year. Policymakers should account for this predictability in setting monetary policy.

Estimation Of Sacrifice Ratio For The Nigerian Economy Using A Time Varying Adrl Approach, E. T. Adamgbe, M. O. Abeng, A. A. Omosola

Economic and Financial Review

Monetary policy in the last few decades had focused on creating the enabling conditions for sustainable economic growth, using the level of inflation as the pivotal tool, complemented with central banks’ independence and monetary policy transparency. However, attaining the delicate balance of achieving low inflation and optimal output, with minimal tradeoffs has been a cause for concern for policy makers. Thus, the measurement of the output loss, arising from the inflation-output tradeoff, forms the fulcrum of this study. This study estimates the sacrifice ratio using a state space methodology in an aggregate supply framework to adjust for real business cycle …

Skbi Big 5 Survey 2019 August, Singapore Management University

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

On balance, our overall interpretation of the multiyear Big5 survey results implies the following economy-at-risk scale (least to most): India, China, US, Japan and Euro Area (i.e., India’s economy appears to be the least at-risk, while the Euro Area might be the most at-risk). Broadly, survey participants expect the risks to GDP growth to be tilted to the downside in 2019 and 2020 followed by a more balanced growth environment in 2021. But participants seem to lean toward a more balanced risk assessment on headline inflation from 2019 through 2021, with the exception of the Euro Area, where a modest …

Public Debt, High Inflation And Economic Depression: A Survival Analysis Approach, Minjie Guo

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation investigates the association between public debt, high inflation and economics depression by using the survival analysis approach.

In the first chapter, I use non-parametric survival analysis to check the association between high debt episodes and high inflation episodes. Both the Kaplan-Meier estimate and the Nelson-Aelon analysis indicate that the existence of an overlapping high inflation episode is correlated with longer duration of high debt episodes. The reverse is also true: the existence of a high debt episode overlap is associated with longer duration of high inflation episodes. Whether or not the country is a member of the OECD …

Is Authoritarianism Bad For The Economy? Ask Venezuela – Or Hungary Or Turkey, Nisha Bellinger, Byunghwan Son

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Democracy is at risk worldwide. And the economy may be, too.

Seventy-one out of the world’s 195 countries saw their democratic institutions erode in recent years, according to the 2018 year-end report by democracy watchdog Freedom House, a phenomenon known as “democratic backsliding.” Signs of backsliding include elected leaders who expand their executive powers while weakening the legislature and judiciary, elections that have become less competitive and shrinking press freedom.

The Effect Of Fiscal Transparency On Output, Inflation, And Government Debt, Luce Menicali

Gettysburg Economic Review

This theoretical paper studies the issue of fiscal transparency, which we define as asymmetry of information between the households’ perception of fiscal policy and the actual government balance sheet, in the context of a 24-hour news cycle. We model the economy using the New Keynesian three-equation model to study the effect of fiscal transparency on output, inflation, and especially government debt in order to draw conclusions that are relevant in the realm of policy-making in a sovereign debt crisis scenario. We find that a higher degree of fiscal transparency leads to greater levels of output and inflation as well as …

A Comparative Analysis On Output Gap - Inflation Relation: The New Keynesian Approach, Oladimeji Tomiwa Shodipe

Masters Theses

The thrust of this research paper is to examine the inflation information that is contained in the output gap using the New Keynesian Phillips Curve framework. As informed by the model, the study also sets to investigate inflation persistence and the influence of forward inertia on the current inflation. This paper follows the Gali and Monacelli (2005) of the small open-economy type of model. However, the current study differs by introducing external factors (trade and real exchange rate) not only on the hybrid model, also on the backward, forward and the hybrid restricted models for time-series data (1971-2017) of all …

The Impact Of Macroeconomic Factors On The Price Of Gold, Yunhao Sun

Applied Economics Theses

My thesis is that macro factors have been important to the change of the gold price, but have had a differential impact in three factors: Gross Global Product (GGP), real interest rate, and U.S. dollar index (USDI). I estimated the 1^st difference of the gold model to determine the impact of macro factors on the price of gold per quarter. The model was estimated using the OLS approach the sample size was 148. I make use of data from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis economic data. The result was that 1^st difference model had statistically insignificant coefficients. …

Inflation Expectations In Singapore: A Behavioural Approach, Alexander Clark, Aurobindo Ghosh, Samuel Hanes

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The expectations of economic agents have significant impact on their decisions and are key determinants of macroeconomic outcomes such as inflation, economic growth and unemployment. For example, if a worker believes that consumer prices will rise sharply next year, she would demand a wage increase. Similarly, a homeowner with a fixed interest mortgage might make an early repayment if she expects price levels to fall, knowing that the real value of her mortgage debt will increase. In these cases, expectations about inflation could lead to changes in behaviour and in the aggregate, influence prices and become self-fulfilling.

Monetary Policy Management In Nigeria Today: Issues In Stagflation And Recession, Moses K. Tule

Bullion

This article explore the rare and challenging economic problem faced by Nigeria refers to as stagflation. i.e. a condition characterized by the co-existence of declining growth rates along with high unemployment and inflation rates. These negative economic development have raised major concern for policy makers and other economic agents because of the adverse effects on investment, financial stability and livelihood.

Avoiding The Crisis, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

Economists are notorious for invariably making wrong or inaccurate forecasts. I would, therefore, not indulge in predicting what is to happen in 2018. Rather, I would look at the past trends, present situation, global economic environment and the likely domestic political and economic developments in the coming year and make some conditional informed guesses.