Economics Commons^™

An Evaluation Of Structural Gaps And Systemic Barriers In The Entrepreneurship Ecosystem, Iryna V. Lendel, Chloe Wieber, Molly Schnoke

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

This comprehensive study of Dayton, Ohio’s minority entrepreneurial ecosystem was supported by the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation. Based on a multi-year research effort and in-depth interviews with business support organizations (BSOs) and ecosystem stakeholders, the study examines how Dayton’s extensive network of entrepreneurial services supports minority and underrepresented entrepreneurs, identifies persistent gaps, and documents how the ecosystem has evolved amid COVID-19 disruptions, declining federal funding, and shifting approaches to diversity, equity, and inclusion. The study highlights strengths such as well-built early-stage support and collaborative service networks, alongside challenges including limited later-stage business assistance, fragmented entry points, misaligned performance metrics, and …

The Advantages Of Saudi Arabia’S Fixed Exchange Rate Regime For Inflation Control: An Econometric And Empirical Analysis, Rodrigo Bochner

Arab Economic and Business Journal

Since 1986, Saudi, has maintained a fixed exchange rate, pegging the Saudi Riyal (SAR) to dollar at SAR 3.75/USD. This stabilizing domestic prices, and promoting macroeconomic stability in an oil-dependent and economy exposed to volatile global commodity prices and international shocks. This paper provides a assessment of the fixed exchange rate’s advantages for inflation control. Leveraging a dataset spanning 1980–2025 and econometric tools— Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) techniques, and GARCH models—this study identifies the causal channels and measures the peg’s impact on inflation dynamics, with a review of literature, confirming that …

Analysis Of Superior Economic Potential In South Tangerang City With Banten Province Comparator Using Location Quotient, Dynamic Location Quotient, And Shift Share Analysis Methods, Muhammad Qabus Abid Khairullah, Rastika Widiastuti, Cindy Adria Ananda Putri, Hayuning Anggrahita

Jurnal Geografi Lingkungan Tropik (Journal of Geography of Tropical Environments)

Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) is a key indicator for understanding regional economic structure and dynamics. Differences in sectoral contributions reflect levels of specialization, competitiveness, and growth potential, making comparative and dynamic sectoral analyses essential for regional development planning. This study aims to identify leading, supporting, potential, and lagging economic sectors using Location Quotient (LQ), Dynamic Location Quotient (DLQ), and Shift Share Analysis by comparing the economic performance of South Tangerang City with Banten Province. The analysis is based on GRDP at constant prices by industrial sector for the period 2019-2023. LQ is applied to identify sectoral comparative advantages, DLQ …

Sports Betting, Lotteries, And State Revenues In The Post-Paspa Era, Joseph Nedved, David Nason, Adam Hoffer, Amir B. Ferreira Neto, Brad Humphreys

Economics Faculty Working Papers Series

State lotteries are an important source of state revenue in the 45 states that operate them. Following the repeal of the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), 38 states and Washington, DC legalized sports betting. Prior evidence is mixed on whether sports betting and lotteries are substitutes, complements, or unrelated goods, raising concerns about potential fiscal impacts. Using monthly lottery sales data from 18 states and a difference-in-differences design exploiting staggered legalization, we find no economically or statistically significant effect of sports betting on state lottery revenues. These results are robust across specifications and sub-samples.

Pricing And Production Without The Invisible Hand, Joel P. Flynn, George Nikolakoudis, Karthik A. Sastry

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Modern theories of the business cycle do not allow for the simultaneous rational choice of both prices and quantities, instead assuming that an “invisible hand” determines one of these variables to clear markets. In this paper, we develop a macroeconomic framework in which both prices and quantities are chosen directly by firms, and exchange is both voluntary and efficient. Because of uncertainty about demand and productivity, individual product markets can be in excess supply or rationed. The absence of market-clearing changes pricing and production in qualitatively important ways: markups are no longer determined solely by the elasticity of demand, and …

Exploring Public Opinions On Mining Governance And Preferences For Interventions To Enhance Battery Mineral Access, Mahelet G. Fikru, Sreeja Koppera, Nhien Nguyen

Economics Faculty Research & Creative Works

Based on an online survey of 1200 individuals, we examine support for new mining projects in the United States, opinions on mining governance, and preferences for various strategies to access battery minerals. We find support for domestic mining more so at the national (54 % support) than local level (32 % support), with a strong emphasis on environmental protection and multi-level governance. Respondents generally support government intervention to secure access to battery minerals, with over half agreeing with subsidizing electric vehicle (EV) producers and consumers to prioritize the use of domestic minerals in EV batteries. However, there is measurable opposition …

Typeface: Machine-Viewing Gentrification On Storefront Imagery In Bedford-Stuyvesant, Brooklyn, Alexander Mcquilkin

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Gentrification—broadly, the replacement of a less powerful group by a more powerful one in an urban context—is oft-discussed in the popular press, but its definition is much-debated in the urban planning literature. Furthermore, academic treatments of displacement understandably focus on measurable yet fairly abstract indicators like changes in rent or income, whereas neighborhood change is often registered by residents on the ground using visual, but difficult-to-quantify markers like retail turnover. This project uses image recognition technology on a set of storefront photos to index the visual streetscape of a neighborhood, as well as to track changes to that portrait over …

Global Shocks, Institutional Development, And Trade Restrictions: What Can We Learn From Crises And Recoveries Between 1990 And 2022?, Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito, Donghyun Park, Jamel Saadaoui, Gazi Salah Uddin

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

The Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic were two major shocks to the world economy in the 21st century. In this study, we analyze the patterns of recessions and recoveries of 101 advanced and developing economies. We identify the turning points of recessions and expansions between 1990 and 2022, and perform cross-country analysis of domestic and external drivers of economic recovery. In addition to the standard independent variables, we include institutional development, political stability, the extent of democracy, and trade restrictions indexes, and explore their roles in explaining recessions and recovery patterns. For the whole sample, we find that …

Digital Ecosystems And Data Regulation, Andrew Rhodes, Jidong Zhou, Junjie Zhou

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper develops a framework in which a multiproduct ecosystem competes with multiple single-product firms in both price and innovation. The ecosystem can use data from one product to improve the quality of its other products. We use the framework to study three regulatory policies aimed at leveling the playing field. Restricting the ecosystem’s cross-product data usage, or forcing it to share data with single-product firms, benefits those firms and induces them to innovate more. However, these policies also dampen the ecosystem’s incentive to collect data and innovate, potentially raising prices. Consumers are better off only when single-product firms are …

Initial-Condition-Robust Inference In Autoregressive Models, Donald W. K. Andrews, Ming Li, Yapeng Zheng

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper considers confidence intervals (CIs) for the autoregressive (AR) parameter in an AR model with an AR parameter that may be close or equal to one. Existing CIs rely on the assumption of a stationary or fixed initial condition to obtain correct asymptotic coverage and good finite sample coverage. When this assumption fails, their coverage can be quite poor. In this paper, we introduce a new CI for the AR parameter whose coverage probability is completely robust to the initial condition, both asymptotically and in finite samples. This CI pays only a small price in terms of its length …

Willingness To Travel With Endogenous Distance: Evidence From The Changing Retail Landscape, Yue Cao, Judith Chevalier, Jessie Handbury, Hayden Parsley, Kevin Williams

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Economists often use variation in consumers’ distance from services as a source of demand variation. This approach typically treats consumer-supplier distance as exogenous, despite suppliers strategically choosing locations. We develop a novel class of instruments to address this endogeneity. These instruments exploit the spatial distribution of consumer demographics and can be constructed from standard cross-sectional data, making them useful in a variety of spatial applications. Our preferred instruments use the income composition of concentric discs centered on the Central Business District. Applying these instruments to smartphone geolocation data for millions of devices across 18 metropolitan areas, we estimate consumer preferences …

Essays On Public Policy And Health Outcomes: Unintended Consequences And The Cost Of Influence, Wenhan Yan

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation investigates the complex behavioral responses to public policy shifts and institutional cues, quantifying their intended and unintended societal impacts. Across two distinct empirical contexts, this research examines how individuals adapt their risk profiles when signals from political or legal authorities change and how these adaptations generate measurable externalities.

The first chapter, "From Punishment to Treatment: Unintended Social Impacts of Changing Drug Policies," shifts the focus to the intersection of health policy and criminal justice. This chapter evaluates the sudden transition from punitive drug enforcement to health-oriented decriminalization, utilizing the 2021 State v. Blake decision in Washington as a …

Are Cities Losing Innovation Advantages? Online Versus Face-To-Face Interactions, Ruben Gaetani, Naqun Huang, Jing Li, Yanmin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

How did COVID-19 affect the innovation advantages of dense locations? Using data on the universe of U.S. patent applications, we find that the density premium in the production of novel inventions declined by 18.5%-22.9% in 2020-2021 relative to its pre-pandemic level. Smartphone data on local mobility suggest that the drop in the frequency of local interactions can explain a significant portion of this effect. While COVID-19 resulted in a temporary setback in the innovation advantages of dense locations, the role of urban density in facilitating the exchange and recombination of ideas is unlikely to be persistently replaced by online communication.

Removed: When Taxi Drivers Meet Dynamic Pricing: A Lesson From Singapore's Justgrab Program, Shih-Fen Cheng, Wen-Tai Hsu, Jing Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies how dynamic pricing influences taxi drivers’ behaviors using a unique event, the inception of the JustGrab program in Singapore in 2017, which introduces dynamic pricing to some, but not all, taxi drivers. This is the first time in history that traditional taxi drivers have access to dynamic pricing. Using data covering the universe of taxi trips before and after the inception of JustGrab, we find that there is spatial reallocation that directs more taxi drivers to the previously less-served areas, that there is also a temporal reallocation that directs more taxi drivers to rush hours, as well …

Projecting Inflation Tail Risks In A Small Open Economy: Some Evidence From Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan, Jordan Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study empirically assesses the drivers of risks to the inflation outlook for a small open economy like Singapore. We apply the inflation-at-risk framework of López-Salido and Loria (2020) and incorporate projections from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) as point forecasts of inflation. Our findings show that macro-financial risk factors—shaped by Singapore’s openness, role as a financial hub, and exchange rate–centered monetary policy framework—enter nonlinearly into inflation risk models and exert differentiated effects. Foreign price pressures heighten upside risks, and exchange rate policy has proven effective at mitigating them. Tighter global financial conditions amplify inflation risks through cost-push channels, …

New Asymptotics Applied To Functional Coefficient Regression And Climate Sensitivity Analysis, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Ying Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

A general asymptotic theory is established for sample cross moments of nonstationary time series, allowing for long-range dependence and local unit roots. The theory provides a substantial extension of earlier results on nonparametric regression that include near-cointegrated nonparametric regression as well as spurious nonparametric regression. Many new models are covered by the limit theory, among which are functional coefficient regressions in which both regressors and the functional covariate are nonstationary. Simulations show finite sample performance matching well with the asymptotic theory and having broad relevance to applications, while revealing how dual nonstationarity in regressors and covariates raises sensitivity to bandwidth …

The Role Of Global Inflation In Estimation Of Us Output Components In The Post Bretton Woods Era: Evidence From Multivariate Unobserved Components Models, Arabinda Basistha

Economics Faculty Working Papers Series

We study the role of global inflation in estimation of US output components using multivariate unobserved components models. We augment the US inflation equations with global inflation based on strong empirical evidence in past studies. We further allow past global and domestic inflation to influence the output dynamics as a separate output component, beyond the output trend and output gap. The estimation results from the state-space model show a negative association of past inflation with this output component. The role of global inflation is informative in the negative association with the inflation based output component. The long-term fall in inflation …

Montana On Screen: Exploring Film Tourism In Montana, Kika Bradford, Elena Bigart, Melissa Weddell

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

This report presents a study exploring how film and TV show exposure influences tourism to Montana, a state long celebrated for its cinematic landscapes and Western heritage. Using data from an online survey of 311 visitors who had both watched a Montana-related production and visited a filming location in the past five years, the research examines visitor profiles, motivations, travel behaviors, spending, and perceptions.

2026 Montana Tourism Outlook – Sales Tax: Is It Time? Montana Economic Seminar Presentation, Melissa Weddell

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

No abstract provided.

Agency Mbs As Safe Assets, Zhiguo He, Zhaogang Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Measured as yield spreads against Treasury securities and AAA corporate bonds, the convenience premium of newly issued agency MBS averages more than half of the long-term Treasury convenience premium. The agency MBS convenience premium and issuance amount vary negatively with mortgage rate, consistent with a prepayment-driven channel. Placing agencies into conservatorship in 2008 and introducing liquidity regulations in 2013 significantly affected MBS convenience premium, consistent with government guarantee and regulatory treatment channels. Analyses of dispersion of dealers’ prepayment forecasts, seasoned MBS, and investors’ MBS holdings deliver further economic implications for agency MBS as safe assets.

Existence Of Equilibrium Mechanisms In Generalized Principal-Agent Problems With Interacting Teams, Brian Roberson

ESI Working Papers

We study incentive design when multiple principals simultaneously design mechanisms for their respective teams in environments with strategic spillovers. In this environment, each principal’s set of incentive-compatible mechanisms—those that satisfy their own agents’ incentive compatibility constraints— depends on the mechanisms offered by the other teams. Following a classic example by Myerson (1982), such games may lack equilibrium due to discontinuities in the correspondence of incentive-compatible mechanisms. We establish general conditions for equilibrium existence by introducing a novel approach that involves tracking both the outcome distributions along the truthful-obedient path and the sets of outcome distributions achievable through unilateral deviations, thereby …

Authoritarianism And Conspiracism Around The World, Valerie Capraro, Folca Panizza, Joseph A. Vitriol, Mikey Biddlestone, Andrè Krouwel, Yordan Kutiyski, Alberto López Ortega, Ana Ebert, Max Wan, Praveen Kujal, Karen M. Douglas, Christopher M. Federico, Jolanda Jetten, Sander Van Der Linden, Flávio Azevedo

ESI Working Papers

Authoritarian leaders frequently deploy conspiracy narratives to justify power concentration and delegitimize opponents, yet the link between authoritarianism and conspiracism remains underresearched. Integrating data across six studies from multiple international surveys (N=63,403; 20 countries), expert-coded party systems (71 countries; 14 datasets), and longitudinal panel studies, we demonstrate that individuals with stronger authoritarian orientations are consistently more prone to conspiracism across diverse cultures, political contexts, and time. These results remain robust when controlling for populist attitudes and multiple political, psychological, and demographic variables. The link between authoritarianism and conspiracism appears to constitute a durable and generalizable psychological relationship. This may help …

Interest Rate And Inflation Control In Egypt: Evaluating Policy Efficiency (1976-2023), Fatma Abouzeid

Theses and Dissertations

Inflation has been a persistent problem in Egypt peaking with unprecedented levels throughout the past decades affecting economic stability and living standards in the country. Controlling inflation through interest rate has been a major tool adopted by the monetary authorities in Egypt with no real satisfactory outcome with respect to inflation levels. This links to a theoretical debate in economic literate on the relationship between interest rate and inflation which represents a major controversy in the field. The study examines this controversy in the case of Egypt to reach a conclusion on the actual relationship between these two central economic …

A General Limit Theory For Nonlinear Functionals Of Nonstationary Time Series, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

New limit theory is provided for a wide class of sample variance and covariance functionals involving both nonstationary and stationary time series. Sample functionals of this type commonly appear in regression applications and the asymptotics are particularly relevant to estimation and inference in nonlinear nonstationary regressions that involve unit root, local unit root, or fractional processes. The limit theory is unusually general in that it covers both parametric and nonparametric regressions. Self-normalized versions of these statistics are considered that are useful in inference. Numerical evidence reveals interesting strong bimodality in the finite sample distributions of conventional self-normalized statistics similar to …

Efficient Bilateral Trade With Interdependent Values: The Use Of Two-Stage Mechanisms, Takashi Kunimoto, Cuiling Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Efficient, voluntary bilateral trades are generally not implementable in an interdependent values environment with two-sided asymmetric information. To obtain more positive results, we consider two-stage mechanisms in which (i) the outcome (e.g., allocation of the goods) is determined first; (ii) the agents partially learn the state via their own outcome-decision payoffs; and (iii) transfers are finally made. We propose the approximate shoot-the-liar (AS) mechanism and identify Assumption 1, under which “approximately” efficient, voluntary trades are implementable. We further illustrate the permissiveness of the assumption, and characterize it in terms of the nature of interdependence in valuation functions – delineating the …

Dynamic Spatial Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects: M-Estimation And Inference Under Fixed Or Relatively Small T, Liyao Li, Ke Miao, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose an M-estimation method for dynamic spatial panel data models with interactive fixed effects based on (relatively) short panels. Unbiased estimating functions are constructed by adjusting the concentrated conditional quasi scores, given the initial values and with the factor loadings being concentrated out, to account for the effects of conditioning and concentration. Solving the estimating equations gives the M-estimators of the common parameters and common factors. Under fixed T, n-consistency and joint asymptotic normality of the M-estimators are established. Under T = o(n), the M-estimators of the common parameters are shown to be nT-consistent and asymptotically normal. For inference, …

Corrigendum To “Interim Rationalizable Implementation Of Functions” (Kunimoto T, Saran R, Serrano R (2024) Mathematics Of Operations Research 49(3):1791–1824), Takashi Kunimoto, Rene Saran, Roberto Serrano

Research Collection School Of Economics

This is the brief corrigendum to “Interim rationalizable implementation of functions” [Kunimoto T, Saran R, Serrano R (2024) Interim rationalizable implementation of functions. Math. Oper Res. 49(3):1791–1824].

The Uncomfortable Truths About Inclusive Growth In Singapore, Kong Weng Ho

Research Collection School Of Economics

In a commentary, SMU Associate Professor of Economics (Education) Ho Kong Weng said that the Ministry of Finance’s Occasional Paper provides food for thought on the way forward on social mobility, growth and redistribution. Assoc Prof Ho stated that these macro statistics suggest Singapore’s socioeconomic compact has performed well, and suggests that sustaining inclusive growth is a multifaceted effort that cannot be boiled down to one single metric, whether income, wealth, inequality or mobility. He noted that pursuing ever-lower Gini coefficients through heavy regulation risks deadweight losses without guaranteeing better mobility outcomes. He added that Singapore’s approach of tempering market-driven …

Brand Switching Or Behavior Change: The 2023 Bud Light Boycott's Impact On Alcohol Purchases, Aljoscha Janssen

Research Collection School Of Economics

I study how the 2023 Bud Light boycott affected overall alcohol demand using household-level panel data and a set of difference-in-differences designs. Focusing on households that, before April 2023, regularly purchased Bud Light, I find a large drop in Bud Light volume (34%–37%), partial switching into other beer (＋70 to ＋90 ounces per month), and a net decline in total ethanol purchases of about 3–4 fl-oz per month, or roughly 5.5%–7.5% of pre-boycott intake. I detect no compensatory increase in wine or spirits. Scaled nationally, the quantity response is equivalent to roughly 150 million standard drinks per year; using CDC …

Teaching Principles Of Macroeconomics In One Equation

Journal of Economics and Finance Education

We leverage the quantity theory of money in teaching because it represents well the big picture of macroeconomics and the relationships between key macroeconomic variables, providing a simple intuition and unified framework. To spark interest, we design authentic learning activities that begin with the opening minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference. Then, we illustrate in a simple classroom experiment how quantity theory works and why it relates to the FOMC decisions. To further equip students with macro data interpretation skills, we assign group presentations on economic outlook for non-US countries.