Economics Commons^™

An Unobserved Components Model Of Total Factor Productivity And The Relative Price Of Investment, Joshua C.C. Chan, Edouard Wemy

Economics

This paper applies the common stochastic trends representation approach to the time series of total factor productivity (TFP) and the relative price of investment (RPI) to investigate the modeling of neutral technology (NT) and investment-specific technology (IST) and its econometric ramifications on the analysis of general equilibrium model. The permanent and transitory movements in both series are estimated efficiently via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods using band matrix algorithms. The results indicate that TFP and the RPI are, each, well represented by a differenced first-order autoregressive process. In addition, their time series share a common trend component that we interpret …

Assessing Visitor Preferences And Willingness To Pay For Marine National Park Hikkaduwa: Application Of Choice Experiment Method, Chamathi Jayaratne, U.A. D.P. Gunawardena, J. C. Edirisinghe, Sahan Dissanayake, D. Rajapaksa

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Eco-tourism all over the world is threatened by the fact that the coral reefs and associated ecosystems are in a process of disappearing at an accelerated rate due to several natural and anthropogenic causes. In this context, the Marine National Park Hikkaduwa (MNPH), one of the four marine national parks in Sri Lanka, that features a fringing coral reef with a high degree of biodiversity, reports a decreasing trend in visitation mainly due to a condition of coral bleaching caused by an El Nino effect. Unfortunately, the regeneration of the corals is found to be slowed by continuous anthropogenic activities. …

Reflections On Inflation: How Bad Has It Been?, Jesus Felipe

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

THE increase in prices that countries have experienced since March 2022 has brought old fears about the deleterious impact of inflation. It is true that prices increased after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and this affected a series of commodities that are imported. Yet, it is important to understand how much prices have increased, the nature of inflation we have experienced, and the reaction of central banks.

Kinerja Ekspor Indonesia: Dampak Pandemi Covid-19 Vs Perang Rusia, Samsul Arifin

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Is COVID an obstacle to Indonesia’s trade flows vs. war to boost Indonesia’s exports? Application of the Gravity model using the OLS panel data fixed effect method to address the endogeneity problem for the 2018q1–2022q3 period. The significant positive results of exporters’ and importers’ GDP and the significant negatif results of distance prove the validity of the gravity model. The significant negatif results of the COVID-19 dummy and the significant positive results of the dummy war show that Indonesia’s exports with trading partners during COVID-19 have decreased, while the impact of the war was able to encourage an increase in …

Pengaruh Pdb Per Kapita Dan Konsumsi Energi Terhadap Emisi Grk Di Indonesia, Sarwono Alfian H. Nadeak, Nasrudin Nasrudin

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

The purpose of this research is to analyze the effect of GDP per capita and energy consumption on greenhouse gas emissions and test the hypothesis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) in Indonesia. This study uses two methods, namely Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) with bound testing approach. The results showed that GDP per capita had a positive effect on greenhouse gas emissions. Renewable energy consumption negatively affects greenhouse gas emissions, while non-renewable energy consumption negatively affects total greenhouse gas emissions, but positively influences CO2 emissions. In the long run, the EKC hypothesis applies in Indonesia.

Apakah Modal Manusia Penting Untuk Mengangkat Jawa Timur Dari Jebakan Kelas Menengah?, Christiayu Natalia, Setyo Tri Wahyudi

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Optimizing demographic dividend requires human capital quality improvement. However, disparities in the quality of human capital between regions in East Java becoming challenge in increasing GRDP per capita growth before demographic bonus period ends. This research analyze the effect of human capital quality on GRDP per capita growth during 2011–2022 period generally in East Java Province and specifically in districts/cities with low human capital quality. Dynamic panel data regression analysis using the First-Difference Generalized Moment Method (FD-GMM) was used in this research. The research results show a significant influence of the quality of human capital on GDP per capita growth.

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 26, Number 3, Thomas M. Fullerton, Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Editor's Note, Marites Tiongco

DLSU Business & Economics Review

No abstract provided.

A Pedagogical Note On Linear Regressions, Andrew Adrian Yu Pua

DLSU Business & Economics Review

No abstract provided.

Language And Economic Behavior Among Filipino Bilinguals: Two Studies In Honor Of Tereso S. Tullao, Jr., Gerardo L. Largoza, Emmanuel M. Garcia

DLSU Business & Economics Review

We report the results of two studies motivated by Tereso S. Tullao, Jr.’s conviction, first articulated nearly four

decades ago, that language matters in economic decision-making. In Study 1, following Chen (2013), we estimate a fixed- effects logit model on Wave 6 of the World Values Survey, and find that speakers of Cebuano (a “tenseless” language that only weakly distinguishes between present and future), are more likely to save than speakers of Tagalog (whose grammar clearly distinguishes between present and future). In Study 2, we conduct a large-scale dictator game experiment among 480 low- income students and find an unusual …

Examining The Inclusiveness Of Philippine Growth From 1991 To 2015: The Role Of Household Human Capital Inequality And Source Of Growth, Geoffrey M. Ducanes

DLSU Business & Economics Review

Defining inclusive growth as growth that has benefited the households who have the lowest human capital levels, this study examines the inclusiveness of economic growth in the Philippines in the past two decades. Combining information from the Labor Force Survey and Family Income and Expenditures Survey for various years, including a panel of 6,500 households from 2003 to 2009, this study classifies households into ordered groups based on human capital level, then compares the performance of the various groups in terms of various employment, income, and expenditure outcomes over time. It finds the evidence to be mixed, although the weight …

The Effects Of Economic Fluctuations On Health Care Expenditures Of Iranian Households Using The Dsge Model, Hamid Reza Izadi

DLSU Business & Economics Review

The health sector is a very important field that has attracted policymakers’ attention due to its high importance. Such importance is more understandable when we know that health improvement results in human capital enhancement through the accumulation of health capital. Given existing economic shocks, the effectiveness of the health and Care services sector has led to changes in household expenditures and consumption patterns, especially those on health and care; and this can cause long-term damage to the household, and the economy in general. Considering that health is both a consumer and an investment commodity, any negative economic shock that leads …

Risk For Thai Children From The Covid-19 Pandemic: Quantitative Analysis, Amornrat Apinunmahakul, Sasatra Sudsawasd, Prasopchoke Mongsawad

DLSU Business & Economics Review

The impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on Thai children’s educational outcomes are examined based on a two- step analysis. First, the economic impact of the pandemic on household income is quantified by incorporating simulated

macroeconomic variables from the CGE model into a household-level data set. Next, these microsimulation results, along with the Thailand Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey data, are examined to identify the negative impact on children’s educational outcomes, using a binary logistic model. The result confirms the negative impact of Covid-19 on household incomes in all income classes. Unfortunately, households with children are hit harder than others in the …

Quality Of Growth And Poverty In Low Income Countries: The Role Of Manufacturing, Raul V. Fabella, Sarah Lynne S. Daway-Ducanes, Geoffrey M. Ducanes

DLSU Business & Economics Review

Both the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) which ended in 2015, and its replacement the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations which will end in 2030, target the eradication of poverty. The 2020 Covid pandemic has seriously worsened poverty incidence in many low income countries, and recovering lost ground is paramount. As low income economies try to establish a new normal, they need to aim not only for higher overall economic growth but also for a higher quality of economic growth for improved inclusion outcome. Higher quality means more inclusion per unit growth. We discuss how for the same …

Women’S Empowerment And Gender Equality In Philippine Agriculture: The Role Of Education And Public Policy, Agnes R. Quisumbing, Hazel J. Malapit

DLSU Business & Economics Review

This paper draws on previous work undertaken as part of the Gender, Agriculture, and Assets Project Phase Two (GAAP2), the CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH), and the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM). Funding support for this study was provided by the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) [Grant number: MCC-16-GRA-0007], Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) [Grant number: INY-008977], and A4NH. This work would not be possible without the collaboration of the Philippines Compact Development Team (CDT), led by Josef Yap, who provided helpful comments at various stages of this research project. Celia …

Volatility Puzzle: Long Memory Or Anti-Persistency, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The log realized volatility (RV) is often modeled as an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average model ARFIMA(1,d,01,d,0). Two conflicting empirical results have been found in the literature. One stream shows that log RV has a long memory (i.e., the fractional parameter d > 0). The other stream suggests that the autoregressive coefficient α is near unity with antipersistent errors (i.e., d α close to 0 and d close to 0.5) from Model 2Model 2 (ARFIMA(1,d,01,d,0) with α close to unity and d close to –0.5). An intuitive explanation is given. For the 10 financial assets considered, despite that no definitive conclusions …

Climate & Conflict: View Into A Warming World, Faelynn Carroll

Master's Theses

Unlike weather patterns, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a large-scale, cyclical climate system that is now predictable for up to a year and a half in advance. ENSO cycles occur every two to seven years for approximately two years at a time, affecting large swaths of the globe with plausibly random variation in the exact location and strength of local effects. However, its systemic nature allows for aggregate effects to be accounted for by its outcomes. This research uses novel 0.5 x 0.5 degree ENSO teleconnection analysis for precipitation and temperature to uncover environmental mechanisms that underly the …

Recent Impacts Of Penny And Fixed Odds Wagering: What Does The Future Hold?, Thomas E. Lambert

Faculty and Staff Scholarship

In order hopefully to revive attendance at the tracks and/or fuel a resurgence in gambling (either in person or virtually), the last year has seen some recent wagering developments and changes at different horseracing tracks in the United States. At Ellis Park Racing and Gaming (Henderson, Kentucky) in the Evansville, Indiana metro area, penny wagering has been tried since the 2022 season to influence gambling revenues. Meanwhile, starting in 2022 Monmouth Park in New Jersey now offers “fixed odds” wagering as an alternative to parimutuel wagering for patrons who do not like the possible fluctuations in odds before a race …

Pengaruh Pendanaan Iklim Terhadap Penurunan Emisi Karbon Melalui Energi Terbarukan Di Indonesia, Noviani Evitasari, Ahmad Komarulzaman

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Climate change causes various negative impacts on life, thus requiring mitigation and adaptation actions. Climate finance could support the transition to a low-carbon economy globally, including in Indonesia. However, empirical research on climate finance in Indonesia is still limited. This study uses path analysis to examine the relationship between climate finance, renewable energy mix, and carbon emissions in Indonesia from 1973 to 2020. The results show that climate finance could not directly reduce carbon emissions or promote renewable energy indirectly. These findings indicate the need to reallocate climate finance to sectors that have the potential to reduce carbon in Indonesia.

Mapping Ecotourism Potential In Bangladesh: The Integration Of An Analytical Hierarchy Algorithm And Geospatial Data, Muhallil Abtahee, Afra Anika Islam, Md. Nazmul Haque, Hasan Zonaed, Samiha Mahzabin Ritu, S. M. Imdadul Islam, Atiq Zaman

Civil Engineering Faculty Publications

The significance of ecotourism has been increasing due to its potential for biodiversity preservation, economic advancement, and the promotion of sustainability awareness. In this research, geospatial analysis and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed to identify feasible ecotourism sites in Bangladesh. The study applied Geographical Information System–Remote Sensing (GIS-RS) parameters and weighted overlay techniques for selected ecotourism characteristics, such as natural attractiveness, topographic features, accessibility, proximity to facilities, and community characteristics. The study found that a significant proportion (around 44%) of Bangladesh’s land exhibits high potential for ecotourism. Cox’s Bazar, Chittagong, and Rangamati are particularly favorable ecotourism locations. However, …

Black And Battered: The Impact Of The Violence Against Women Act On Women Of Color, Antonia D. Adams

Senior Theses

Domestic violence is the intentional act of someone exerting control to harm another person. Domestic violence can impact individuals of all genders, ethnicities, and backgrounds. However, domestic violence has a disproportionate impact on Black women over their white counterparts. By analyzing raw SLED data, as well as peer-reviewed articles and personal interviews, this paper will explore whether the Violence Against Women Act (VAWA) helped Black women, or if it failed to protect them. The hypothesis is that VAWA did not address the unique needs that Black women faced in domestic violence. Due to the myriad of circumstances that Black women …

Investment And The Long Swings Of Unemployment, Hian Teck Hoon, Margarita Katsimi, Gylfi Zoega

Research Collection School Of Economics

We estimate the medium-term relationship between investment and unemployment over the period 1960–2017 in 20 OECD countries, a period that includes the years of the Great Recession. While neoclassical growth theory typically assumes full employment—with no effect of investment on unemployment—and New-Keynesian models assume that such a relationship only exists in the short term at business cycle frequencies, we find that over our sample period covering more than 5 decades, a statistically significant negative relationship does exist: in decades when investment fell, unemployment increased. Panel estimation, using a measure of stock market volatility as an instrument for investment, confirms the …

Bootstrapping Two-Stage Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimators Of Time Series Models, Sílvia Gonçalves, Ulrich Hounyo, Andrew John Patton, Kevin Sheppard

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article provides results on the validity of bootstrap inference methods for two-stage quasi-maximum likelihood estimation involving time series data, such as those used for multivariate volatility models or copula-based models. Existing approaches require the researcher to compute and combine many first- and second-order derivatives, which can be difficult to do and is susceptible to error. Bootstrap methods are simpler to apply, allowing the substitution of capital (CPU cycles) for labor (keeping track of derivatives). We show the consistency of the bootstrap distribution and consistency of bootstrap variance estimators, thereby justifying the use of bootstrap percentile intervals and bootstrap standard …

Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models Based On Generalized Fisher Transformation, Han Chen, Yijie Fei, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Modeling multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) can be challenging, particularly when both variances and covariances are time-varying. In this paper, we address these challenges by introducing a new MSV model based on the generalized Fisher transformation of Archakov and Hansen (2021). Our model is highly exible and ensures that the variance-covariance matrix is always positive-definite. Moreover, our approach separates the driving factors of volatilities and correlations. To conduct Bayesian analysis of the model, we use a Particle Gibbs Ancestor Sampling (PGAS) method, which facilitates Bayesian model comparison. We also extend our MSV model to cover the leverage effect in volatilities and …

Young Women In Cities, Yumi Koh, Jing Li, Yifan Wu, Junjian Yi, Hanzhe Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Young women outnumber young men in cities in many countries during periods of economic growth and urbanization. This gender imbalance among young urbanites is more pronounced in larger cities. We use the gradual rollout of special economic zones across China as a quasi-experiment to establish the causes of this gender imbalance. Our analysis suggests that a key contributor is gender-differential incentives to migrate due to rural women’s higher likelihood of marrying and marrying up in cities when urbanization creates more economic opportunities and an abundance of high-income marriage-age men.

The Importance Of The First Generic Substitution: Evidence From Sweden, Aljoscha Janssen, David Granlund

Research Collection School Of Economics

We analyze changes in the willingness to substitute from prescribed pharmaceuticals to more affordable generic equivalents in response to the first experience with a substitution. Using Swedish individual-level data of prescribed and dispensed pharmaceuticals, we em-ploy a dynamic event study and an instrumental variable approach to show that an initial substitution reduces the probability of opposing subsequent substitutions by 39 percent-age points. We recommend that policy-makers target patients with a history of opposed substitution and offer additional discounts to promote substitution as long-term savings outweigh one-time costs.

The Impact Of Upzoning On Housing Construction In Auckland*, Ryan Greenaway-Mcgrevy, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

There is a growing debate about whether upzoning is an effective policy response to housing shortages and unaffordable housing. This paper provides empirical evidence to further inform debate by examining the various impacts of recently implemented zoning reforms on housing construction in Auckland, the largest metropolitan area in New Zealand. In 2016, the city upzoned approximately three quarters of its residential land to facilitate construction of more intensive housing. We use a quasi-experimental approach to analyze the short-run impacts of the reform on construction, allowing for potential shifts in construction from non-upzoned to upzoned areas (displacement effects) that would, if …

Seeking Better Sharpe Ratio Via Bayesian Optimization, Peng Liu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Developing an excellent quantitative trading strategy to obtain a high Sharpe ratio requires optimizing several parameters at the same time. Example parameters include the window length of a moving average sequence, the choice of trading instruments, and the thresholds used to generate trading signals. Simultaneously optimizing all these parameters to seek a high Sharpe ratio is a daunting and time-consuming task, partly because of the unknown mechanism determining the Sharpe ratio. This article proposes using Bayesian optimization to systematically search for the optimal parameter configuration that leads to a high Sharpe ratio. The author shows that the proposed intelligent search …

Rainy Day Funds In The Mountain West, Fy22, Issac Hernandez-Alcaraz, Maryam Raja, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Elections & Governance

This fact sheet examines data from “Record State Budget Reserves Buffer Against Mounting Fiscal Threats,” a 2023 Pew Charitable Trusts report on rainy day fund balances of U.S. states. Data includes information on the strength of rainy day funds and total balances for each Mountain West state: Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah.

Urban And Community Tree Cover In The Mountain West, Zachary Billot, Zachary Walusek, Annie Vong, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Environment

This fact sheet examines data on tree cover and impervious cover in urban land for the United States and for the five states in the Mountain West: Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. The original report includes data for each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia