Economics Commons^™

Covariate Adjustment In Experiments With Matched Pairs, Yuehao Bai, Liang Jiang, Joseph P. Romano, Azeem M. Shaikh, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies inference on the average treatment effect in experiments in which treatment status is determined according to “matched pairs” and it is additionally desired to adjust for observed, baseline covariates to gain further precision. By a “matched pairs” design, we mean that units are sampled i.i.d. from the population of interest, paired according to observed, baseline covariates and finally, within each pair, one unit is selected at random for treatment. Importantly, we presume that not all observed, baseline covariates are used in determining treatment assignment. We study a broad class of estimators based on a “doubly robust” moment …

Fully Modified Least Squares Cointegrating Parameter Estimation In Multicointegrated Systems, Igor L. Kheifets, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Multicointegration is traditionally defined as a particular long run relationship among variables in a parametric vector autoregressive model that introduces additional cointegrating links between these variables and partial sums of the equilibrium errors. This paper departs from the parametric model, using a semiparametric formulation that reveals the explicit role that singularity of the long run conditional covariance matrix plays in determining multicointegration. The semiparametric framework has the advantage that short run dynamics do not need to be modeled and estimation by standard techniques such as fully modified least squares (FM-OLS) on the original system is straightforward. The paper derives FM-OLS …

Modeling And Forecasting Realized Volatility With The Fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process, Xiaohu Wang, Weilin Xiao, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes to model and forecast realized volatility (RV) using the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (fO-U) process with a general Hurst parameter, H. A two-stage method is introduced for estimating parameters in the fO-U process based on discrete-sampled observations. In the first stage, H is estimated based on the ratio of two second-order differences of observations from different frequencies. In the second stage, with the estimated , the other parameters of the model are estimated by the method of moments. All estimators have closed-form expressions and are easy to implement. A large sample theory of the proposed estimators is derived. Extensive …

Analysis Of Freight Movements In The San Joaquin Valley, Aly Tawfik, Utsav Shah

Mineta Transportation Institute

Freight transportation plays a primary role in supply chains, costs, and availability of goods and is a major part of the economy. This study identifies, assesses, and utilizes different data sources to uncover and understand the patterns and movements of different types of freight in the San Joaquin Valley’s (SJV's) different counties. The San Joaquin Valley region consists of eight counties: San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, Madera, Fresno, Kings, and Tulare. This research explored some major datasets with freight information, such as Global Trade Atlas (GTA), Port Imports and Exports Reporting Systems (PIERS), and Streetlight data insights for the year 2019 …

Smoking Behaviour And Its Impact On The Quality Of Life Of The Beneficiary Families Of Social Assistance Funds In East Java, Indonesia, Renny Nurhasana, Suci Puspita Ratih, Rara Warih Gayatri, Tika Dwi Tama, Ni Made Shellasih, Aryana Satrya, Fadhilah Rizky Ningtyas, Nurul Muhafilah

Journal of Strategic and Global Studies

The government implements social assistance programs for poor families and vulnerable groups. Therefore, the implementation is still facing various challenges. One of the toughest challenges is smoking behaviour. As the income has been increasing, the cigarette’s expense is also high. Cigarette’s expenditure substitutes other basic needs, such as nutritional foods, health, and education expenses. This study analyses smoking behaviour in social assistance recipients and its impact on quality of life. By using qualitative method, particularly the Rapid Assessment Procedure, data were obtained through in-depth interviews. The study uses purposive method to collect samples in East Java, both Malang City and …

Spanish Book, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection contains:

• A letter from Irene Castro Nava at Fondo de Cultura Económica in Mexico City, notifying Professor Shaikh that the Spanish edition of his book Capitalism: Competition, Conflict, Crises was set to be published on January 26, 2023, as Capitalismo. Competencia, crisis, y conflicto. (This appears to conflict with the actual publication title, which is Capitalismo. Competencia, conflicto y crisis.)

The Optimality Of Constant Mark-Up Pricing, Dirk Bergemann, Tibor Heumann, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We consider a nonlinear pricing environment with private information. We provide profit guarantees (and associated mechanisms) that the seller can achieve across all possible distributions of willingness to pay of the buyers. With a constant elasticity cost function, constant markup pricing provides the optimal revenue guarantee across all possible distributions of willingness to pay and the lower bound is attained under a Pareto distribution. We characterize how profits and consumer surplus vary with the distribution of values and show that Pareto distributions are extremal. We also provide a revenue guarantee for general cost functions.We establish equivalent results for optimal procurement …

Estimating The Effects Of The Ada Amendments Act On The Hiring And Termination Of Individuals With Disabilities, Using New Disability Categorizations, Patrick Button, Philip Armour, Simon Hollands

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Disability discrimination laws are often used to potentially increase employment for individuals with disabilities. However, legal theory and empirical economics research do not provide conclusive answers as to how expansions in disability discrimination laws affect economic outcomes, namely hiring rates, for individuals with disabilities. We estimate the effect of the ADA Amendments Act (ADAAA) on employment transitions: hirings and terminations for individuals with disabilities relative to those without disabilities. To calculate employment transitions, we use data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). We also use the SIPP to develop additional measures and categorizations of disability based on …

An Experimental Test Of Algorithmic Dismissals, Brice Corgnet

ESI Working Papers

We design a laboratory experiment in which a human or an algorithm decides which of two workers to dismiss. The algorithm automatically dismisses the least productive worker whereas human bosses have full discretion over their decisions. Using performance metrics and questionnaires, we find that fired workers react more negatively to human than to algorithmic decisions in a broad range of tasks. We show that spitefulness exacerbated this negative reaction. Our findings suggest algorithms could help tame negative reactions to dismissals.

The Impact Of Covid-19 And Associated Policy Responses On Global Food Security, Edward J. Balistreri, Felix Baquedano, John C. Beghin

Department of Economics: Faculty Publications

We analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated policy responses on the global economy and food security in 80 low- and middle-income countries. We use a global economy-wide model with detailed disaggregation of agricultural and food sectors and develop a business-as-usual baseline for 2020 and 2021 called “But-for-COVID” (BfC). We then shock the model with aggregate income shocks derived from the IMF World Economic Outlook for 2020 and 2021. We impose total-factor productivity losses in key sectors as well as consumption decreases induced by social distancing. The resulting shocks in prices and incomes from the CGE model simulations …

God Games: An Experimental Study Of Uncertainty, Superstition, And Cooperation, Aidin Hajikhameneh, Laurence R. Iannaccone

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

This paper uses a novel lab experiment to test claims about the origins and functions of religion. We modify the standard public goods game, adding a computer-based agent that adjusts earnings in ways that might depend on players' contributions. Our treatments employ three different descriptions of the adjustment process that loosely correspond to monotheistic, atheistic, and agnostic interpretations of the computer's role. The adjustments neither mask players' contributions nor magnify their impact. Yet players in all three adjustment treatments contribute much more than those who play the standard public goods game. Players' contributions and survey responses show that adjustments induce …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: January 27, 2023, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N fell by just 0.03% in December 2022. The leading indicator, which is designed to predict economic growth six months in the future, suggests that there will be little growth in the Nebraska economy during the first half of 2023. Three components of the leading indicator worsened in December. There was a decline in airline passenger counts on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Building permits for single-family homes also declined and there was another increase in initial claims for unemployment insurance in Nebraska. One positive component during December was the value of the U.S. dollar. The dollar declined in value which …

U.S. Energy Information Administration Information Resources, Bert Chapman

Libraries Faculty and Staff Presentations

Provides information about the resources produced by U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. These resources cover energy statistics for U.S., states, the United States, and foreign countries. They also cover energy products as varied as coal, natural gas, nuclear energy, petroleum, and renewable energy.

Landscape With Invisible Hand, John C. Lyden

Journal of Religion & Film

This is a film review of Landscape With Invisible Hand (2023), directed by Cory Finley.

The Environmental Contingencies, Capital Structure And Firm Performance Of Listed Firms, Sunday Amos Adeusi Dr, Oluwabunmi Akindele Olawaye

International Review of Business and Economics

Going concerns of business empires is predicated on the externality effect of environmental contingencies that influence the decisions of capital users. And the capability of capital users to circumnavigate both macro and micro environmental contingencies which cumulate to shareholders’ wealth maximization is crucial. Hence, the study aims of dissecting effect of macro and micro environmental contingences on the capital structure and firm performance. Generalized Method Moment (GMM) statistical tool is used to dissect perceived association amidst endogenous and exogenous variables. The results show that micro contingences such debt to equity, debt to assets and short-term liability have negative and statistically …

The Remittance, Foreign Direct Investment, Export, And Economic Growth In Bangladesh: A Time Series Analysis, Al Mamun, M H M Imrul Kabir

Arab Economic and Business Journal

This research empirically examined the effect of internal and external factors on the economic growth of Bangladesh using the annual data from 1976 to 2019. ARDL bounds tests were used to detect cointegration and understand the dynamic effect. This study mainly identified the positive and negative casualties because remittance and export have a significant positive role, and FDI has an adverse role in the economic growth process. Furthermore, this study recommends that the government take appropriate steps to increase export, the inflow of remittance and FDI to achieve long-run economic growth, considering the impact of COVID-19 and present Russia- Ukraine …

Social And Financial Incentives For Overcoming A Collective Action Problem, M. Mehrab Bakhtiar, Raymond Guiteras, James Levinsohn, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak

Discussion Papers

Addressing public health externalities often requires community-level collective action. Each person’s sanitation behavior can affect the health of neighbors. We report on a cluster randomized controlled trial conducted with 19,000 households in rural Bangladesh where we randomized (1) either group financial incentives or a non-financial “social recognition” reward, and (2) asking each household to make either a private pledge or a public pledge to maintain hygienic latrines. The group financial reward has the strongest impact in the short term (3 months), inducing a 7.5-12.5 percentage point increase in hygienic latrine ownership. Getting people to publicly commit to maintaining and using …

Exploring Permanency Of Pandemic Influenced Changes In Habitual Consumption Behaviour, Ray Titus, Sejal Valera, Debashish Sengupta

Arab Economic and Business Journal

The pandemic has universally disrupted the way people live and socialise. People’s behavioural patterns have also been significantly influenced by the Covid-19 pandemic. A study conducted in Singapore found evidence of at least 17 behavioural changes triggered by Covid-19 pandemic. Another study done in Italy found that there was a high intention to adopt protective behaviours post the Covid-19 lockdown. Similarly, a study done in South Africa indicated enhanced behavioural responses to Covid-19 and consequently the evolution of preventive behaviours. The behavioural changes triggered by Covid-19 pandemic are likely to extend into consumption territory and impact consumer behaviour significantly. A …

From Case Studies To Experiential Learning. Is Simulation An Effective Tool For Student Assessment?, Bassem E Maamari, Darin El-Nakla,

Arab Economic and Business Journal

With the fast changes enforced by the COVID-19, many business schools found themselves streamed into using new technology and platforms to safeguard the academic year 2020-2021. The introduction of business simulation for student assessment before graduating from the undergraduate program has always presented a challenge in terms of approach to use. Today, business simulation is introduced, not only to enhance students’ learning experience but also to satisfy the assessment institutional requirement of closing the gap. This comparative quantitative study uses feedback from students of two cohorts assessed during the same academic year, one using the case method and the second …

Forecast Of China’S Economic Growth Rate In 2023 And Policy Suggestions, Xikang Chen, Cuihong Yang, Kunfu Zhu, Huijuan Wang, Xinru Li, Jie Yin

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

China's economic growth slowed down in 2022 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the corresponding measures. There are great uncertainties in China's economic development in 2023. It is expected that China's medium and long-term economic growth rate will show a wavy downward trend. Based on input-output technology, econometrics, prosperity analysis, expert analysis, and scenario analysis, this study proposes a systematic integrated factor prediction approach on annual GDP growth. Through analysis of China's economic growth in 2022 and the current situation worldwide, China's economic growth rate is predicted to be about 6.0% in 2023, reverting to the normal level. The policy …

Analysis Of The Emerging Pilot Workforce, James Birdsong, Kurt Reesman

National Training Aircraft Symposium (NTAS)

The pilot workforce grew by approximately 20,000 pilots between 2011 – 2019 before shedding almost 6,500 jobs in 2020 due to COVID-19. Long-term forecasts predict industry recovery and growth and the need for robust pilot hiring since approximately 50% of today’s pilot workforce will meet the mandatory retirement age within 15 years.

The current workforce consists of four generations, with the youngest (Generation Z) just beginning to join the airline ranks. The oldest generation (Baby Boomers) will be exiting the workforce within ten years, leaving three generations (Generations X, Y, and Z), two of which have spent their entire lives …

The Perceived Image Of Nudity In Digital Advertisements, Lindos Daou, Lea Maksoud

Arab Economic and Business Journal

The perception of nudity in ads is a very wide and critical topic and it has been commonly used in advertising campaigns in different countries. Many factors influence the perception of customers in advertisements such as gender, education level, culture and race. The purpose of this study is to determine how taboo related to sex and nudity is perceived in ads and how it effects the brand itself. Data was collected via an online questionnaire and was distributed to Lebanese women of different age groups, educational levels, religions, affiliations and occupations. The results showed that nudity level affects consumers’ attention …

Prescription Drug Retail Sales In The Mountain West, Caren Royce Yap, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Health

This fact sheet synthesizes data on prescription drug retail sales in the Mountain West (Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah). "Retail Sales for Prescription Drugs Filled at Pharmacies by Payer," a 2019 report by the Kaiser Family Foundation, includes data on the amount of retail sales for prescription drugs made in each state by dollar amount, along with the method of coverage, including commercial, Medicare, Medicaid and cash payment.

Extreme Points Of First-Order Stochastic Dominance Intervals: Theory And Applications, Kai Hao Yang, Alexander K. Zentefis

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We characterize the extreme points of first-order stochastic dominance (FOSD) intervals and show how these intervals are at the heart of many topics in economics. Using knowledge of these extreme points, we characterize the distributions of posterior quantiles under a given prior, leading to an analogue of a classical result regarding the distribution of posterior means. We apply this analogue to various economic subjects, including the psychology of judgement, political economy, and Bayesian persuasion. In addition, FOSD intervals provide a common structure to security design. We use the extreme points to unify and generalize seminal results in that literature when …

Journal Of Economics And Politics: Examining The Transition To An Online Publication, David Mcclough

The Journal of Economics and Politics

No abstract provided.

Unfinished Business, David Mcclough

The Journal of Economics and Politics

No abstract provided.

The Methodology Of Multiple Regressions For Gdp Per Capita For Nations In The World Between 0 Ce And 1940, Robert Rogers

The Journal of Economics and Politics

A reduced-form model of GDP per capita is estimated using the classical econometric method and two Bayesian techniques, Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA) and Bayesian Analysis of Classical Estimation (BACE) for the two millenniums. For several variables, such as the impact of colonialism, the Goldstone hypothesis of efflorescence increasing economic growth, and the impact of technology, this paper lends support, especially when the Bayesian methods are applied. Other results are mixed. Generally, the results support use of Bayesian methods by eliminating hypotheses that are not consistently supported over all models.

The Role And Relevance Of Discourse And Discursive Perspectives In Organizational Change And Development, Cliff Oswick, Yuan Li

School of Economics and Business Administration Faculty Works

No abstract provided.

Association Between Low Health Literacy And Adverse Health Behaviors In North Carolina, 2016, Manan Roy, Adam Hege, Erin D. Bouldin

Journal of Appalachian Health

Introduction: Health literacy (HL) is an urgent public health challenge facing the U.S. HL is a critical factor in health inequities and exacerbates underlying social determinants of health.

Purpose: This study assesses the association between low HL (LHL) and adverse health behaviors, which contribute to poor health.

Methods: Researchers used North Carolina’s 2016 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data, namely, the Health Literacy optional module which asks respondents to rate how difficult it is for them to get health-related advice or to understand medical information (verbal or written). Health behaviors analyzed were excessive alcohol consumption, lack of adequate exercise and …

Influence Or Advertise: The Role Of Social Learning In Influencer Marketing, Ron Berman, Aniko Öry (Oery), Xudong Zheng

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We compare influencer marketing to targeted advertising from information aggregation and product awareness perspectives. Influencer marketing leverages network effects by allowing consumers to socially learn from each other about their experienced content utility, but consumers may not know whether to attribute promotional post popularity to high content or high product quality. If the quality of a product is uncertain (e.g., it belongs to an unknown brand), then a mega influencer with consistent content quality fosters more information aggregation than a targeted ad and thereby yields higher profits. When we compare influencer marketing to untargeted ad campaigns or if the product …