Economics Commons^™

Complex Global Value Chains And Economic Interdependence: A New Look At The Opportunity Costs Argument, Melle Scholten

Graduate Research Conference (GSIS)

The classical economic interdependence argument states that trade and investment between countries make conflict less likely, because they increase the opportunity costs of war. War means that trade and investment will dry up, to the detriment of society as a whole. The increased opportunity costs of war (vis-`a-vis peace) means war will be less likely to occur between interdependent states. Certain strands of realism have challenged this assertion. They argue that expectations that trade will decline in future can be a strong incentive for initiating conflict. Giving increasing political and economic tensions between the world’s superpowers – the USA and …

Household Food Security In The Mountain West, 2021, Zachary Walusek, Corryn Richardson, Issac Hernandez-Alcaraz, Annie Vong, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Health

This fact sheet examines data on household food security published by the United States Department of Agriculture. We examine the prevalence of household food insecurity and very low food security in Mountain West states (Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) and the United States national average for comparative analysis.

The Impact Of Social Network Friendship On Lending Behaviors: An Empirical Analysis Of Peer-To-Peer Lending In China, Xianyun Chen

Fordham Dissertations and Theses

This dissertation builds on the theoretical framework of information asymmetry, signaling theory, and social network, and empirically studies the impact of social network friendship on peer-to-peer lending (P2P). Using the P2P lending data from China, it studies how social network affects the lending willingness in China’s P2P lending. In particular, it examines the effect of social network on the adverse selection in P2P lending in China, and the effect of social network on interest and default rates. It also explores how P2P loans use the advantages in low-cost customer acquisition and fast …

Introducing New Forms Of Digital Money: Evidence From The Laboratory, Gabriele Camera

ESI Publications

Central banks may soon issue currencies that are entirely digital (CBDCs) and possibly interest bearing. A strategic analytical framework is used to investigate this innovation in the laboratory, contrasting a traditional “plain” tokens baseline to treatments with “sophisticated” interest-bearing tokens. In the experiment, this theoretically beneficial innovation precluded the emergence of a stable monetary system, reducing trade and welfare. Similar problems emerged when sophisticated tokens complemented or replaced plain tokens. This evidence underscores the advantages of combining theoretical with experimental investigation to provide insights for payments systems innovation and policy design.

Rising Interest Rates: What They Mean For You And The Economy, Timothy Meyer

Cornhusker Economics

Discusses rising interest rates what they mean for agricultural workers and the economy.

Session 7: Would Ai Stocks Estimate Be As Surprised To Usda Stock Reports As Private Market Analysts?, Asif Mahmud Chowdhury, Matthew Elliott

SDSU Data Science Symposium

Would AI Stocks Estimate Be as Surprised to USDA Stock Reports as Private Market Analysts?

Keywords: Machine Learning, Random Forest, Agricultural Commodities Market, Informational Impact, Efficient Market Hypothesis.

The USDA survey-based Quarterly Grain Stocks reports are the primary source of information regarding the relative supply of U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat for the last fifty years. Previous research has examined the accuracy of the USDA stock reports and their relevancy to the market, given alternative sources of estimates (e.g., Isengildina-Massa et al., 2021). For example, private industry analysts also estimate expected quarterly grain stock reports before USDA releases their reports. …

Kentucky Annual Economic Report 2023, Michael Childress, Michael W. Clark, James P. Ziliak, Simon Sheather

Kentucky Annual Economic Report

This report is one of the important ways that the Center for Business and Economic Research fulfills its mission to examine various aspects of Kentucky’s economy as directed by the Kentucky Revised Statutes (KRS 164.738). The analysis and data presented here cover a variety of topics that range from a discussion of Kentucky’s current economic climate to a broad presentation of factors affecting the economy.

Are Income Tax Breaks For Seniors Good For State Economic Growth?, Ben Brewer, Karen S. Conway, Jon Rork

Carsey Publications

In this brief, authors Ben Brewer, Karen Conway, and Jon Rork discuss the findings of their recently published study that investigates, directly, the impact on state economic growth of expanding income tax breaks for seniors. All state income tax systems contain provisions that reduce the state income tax burden for elderly households, and most modest-income elderly households owe little in state income taxes. Each year state legislatures consider expansions to these tax provisions, which tend to benefit primarily upper-income elderly households, with advocates suggesting such changes will be “good” for the state, in part by retaining and attracting elderly residents. …

The 2015 Migrant Crisis: An Impact To Germany?, Irish Nicole Solinsky

Doctoral Dissertations and Projects

The 2015 European Migrant Crisis emerged when an influx of refugees settled in Europe from 2015-2019. The asylum seekers fled their homelands to evade a myriad of crises such as violence and war, corruption and abuse, and poor socioeconomic conditions. Of the European states, Germany welcomed the largest number of migrants. This was in part due to Germany’s existing immigration policies in a post-Second World War environment, but also due to Germany’s resounding economic strength. Germany has significantly low unemployment rates and the highest gross domestic product (GDP) in Europe. As such, Germany’s position is one of uncontested significance within …

How Do Broad Non-Disclosure Agreements Affect Labor Markets?, Jason Sockin, Aaron Sojourner, Evan Starr

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

State Tax Strategies To Reduce Care Costs, Gabrielle Pepin

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

The Shrinking Geography Of Housing Opportunity In Mountain West Metros, 2022, Hira Ahmed, Joshua Padilla, Saha Salahi, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Housing & Real Estate

This fact sheet examines data from the National Equity Atlas on the changing geography of opportunity across Mountain West metros. The original report includes data on the largest 100 metros in the United States. This fact sheet reports on the overall percentages of affordable zip codes in nine major metropolitan areas in the Mountain West and changes in affordable zip codes for Black, Latinx, and white households in Mountain West metros from 2013 to 2019. Data for nine Mountain West metros are included: Tucson, AZ; Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ; Colorado Springs, CO; Denver-Aurora, CO; Albuquerque, NM; Las Vegas-Paradise, NV; Ogden-Clearfield, UT; Provo-Orem, …

Are Markets Interested In Adapting To Climate? Insights From Singapore, Stella Whittaker, Tran Bao Phuong Nguyen

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

We have collected the views of leading practitioners and academics in Singapore involved in funding and financing urban climate change adaptation1 (thereon referred to as urban adaptation). Throughout this paper we discuss several vital perspectives on adaptation financing, namely responsibility for adaptation investment, the extent of government adaptation investment, private sector adaptation investment appetite and prospects for experimentation in adaptation financing. We also attempt to shed light on the existence or not of an adaptation financing gap2 in Singapore.

The Misguided Journey To Queflation, Jannie Rossouw, Darrol J. Stanley

Graziadio Working Paper Series

No abstract provided.

Assessing The Odds Of A Us Recession, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

In this commentary, SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) Principal Researcher Thomas Lam and SKBI Director SMU Professor of Finance (Practice) Dave Fernandez offer their perspectives on the current multifaceted and highly charged US recession debate. While America is currently not in a downturn, the near-term odds of one have edged up, according to models based on key monthly and weekly indicators.

Research On The Influence Of Management Practices On Hospital Performance: An Empirical Study Based On Hospitals In Eastern China, Zhihua Zhang

Fordham Dissertations and Theses

Since the beginning of the 21st century, a series of challenges have been confronting global health development, including significant factors affecting human health such as population aging, severe infectious diseases, and climate change. In particular, the COVID-19 that swept the globe in the past three years has posed a major comprehensive test to the global health governance system. As both the last line of defense for human health and the largest consumer of health resources, how the hospital can "improve quality and promote efficiency" based on limited resources is the core of the first priority. Previous studies have proven that …

Chinese Yuan Interest Rate Swap Yields, Tanweer Akram, Khawaja Mamun

WCBT Working Papers

This paper models the dynamics of Chinese yuan (CNY)–denominated long-term interest rate swap yields. The financial sector plays a vital role in the Chinese economy, which has grown rapidly in the past several decades. Going forward, interest rate swaps are likely to have an important role in the Chinese financial system. This paper shows that the short-term interest rate exerts a decisive influence on the long-term swap yield after controlling for various macrofinancial variables, such as inflation or core inflation, the growth of industrial production, percent change in the equity price index, and the percentage change in the CNY exchange …

Bearer Negotiable Instruments: Addressing A Financial Intelligence Gap And Identifying Criminogenic Weaknesses, Hollis B. Kegg

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Bearer Negotiable Instruments (BNI) are a long-standing category of financial instruments used to transfer large amounts of money in ways that may not be subject to regulation, reporting, tracking, review, or oversight. There is limited information available on BNIs, and no evidence that any studies have been undertaken on BNIs alone, much less reported. Increasingly, BNIs are being used for illegal purposes including money laundering. This study gathers information about their characteristics, nature, purpose, legal status, and numbers. It also focuses on the crime risks associated with BNIs, the crime opportunities they facilitate, and the criminal weaknesses in the financial …

Essays On Entrepreneurship, Yoshiko Oka

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation explores the determinants of successful entrepreneurship and entrepreneurial entry. It consists of three chapters.

Chapter 1 estimates the effect of regional concentrations of related industrial firms and business owners' cognitive and non-cognitive traits on their business survival. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 and the County Business Patterns, I find that incorporated businesses that operate in a location where similar businesses are clustered together have a significantly higher chance of survival. However, the effect of location appears to be insignificant for unincorporated businesses. On the other hand, the results show that businesses that are …

When Do Consumers Talk?, Ishita Chakraborty, Joyee Deb, Aniko Öry (Oery)

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The propensity of consumers to talk after a good versus bad experience with a product can differ based on information available from other marketing channels, for example the brand image or advertising. This can result in selection of positive/negative word-of-mouth for reasons outside of product quality. We develop a unifying framework of WOM, brand image, product advertising, and pricing with a focus on the instrumentality motive of word-of-mouth: early adopters talk to inform new buyers’ purchasing decisions. The different marketing channels shape the information sharing behavior of the early adopter as well as the target consumer’s purchase decision. We show …

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 7, Number 2, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Getting Dynamic Implementation To Work, Yi-Chun Chen, Richard Holden, Takashi Kunimoto, Yifei Sun, Tom Wilkening

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop a new class of two-stage mechanisms, which fully implement any social choice function under initial rationalizability in complete information environments. We show theoretically that our Simultaneous Report (SR) mechanisms are robust to small amounts of incomplete information about the state of nature. We also highlight the robustness of the mechanisms to a wide variety of reasoning processes and behavioral assumptions. We show experimentally that a SR mechanism performs well in inducing truth-telling in both complete and incomplete information environments and that it can induce efficient investment in a two-sided hold-up problem with ex-ante investment. The SR mechanism also …

Asymmetric Effects In Geopolitical Risk And Foreign Reserves Accumulation Among Brics Countries, Kwame O. Asomaning

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

Over the past decade, the rise of Geopolitical Risk (GPR) has had a significant effect on macro financial variables, prompting central banks to accumulate reserves as a "war chest" to protect their economies from the detrimental effects of such shocks. This study examines the asymmetries in the long run, short run, and locational asymmetric effects on foreign reserves in the BRICS countries, using both the Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) and Quantile ARDL (QARDL) models over the period 2000Q1–2021Q4. The results of the NARDL model suggest that GPR has long-run asymmetric effects for BRICS, while in the short run, all countries display …

Montana Residents: Attitudes Towards Tourism 2022 & Resident Perceptions Of Community Disaster Preparedness, Carter Bermingham, Megan Schultz, Matthew Pettigrew, Glenna Brown

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

This report is a summary of Montana residents' attitudes towards tourism within the state. Since 1992, ITRR has asked residents questions specific to their attitudes towards tourism. This study was conducted to continue tracking the perception of the tourism industry in Montana, as well as expanding the original survey to include topics such as the perceived economic benefit tourism provides to local communities, crowding at the local community level, as well as questions focused on amenities to support tourism, and disaster preparedness.

Montana Travel Experience Survey - Final Summary Report, Glenna Brown, Kara Grau, Megan Schultz

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

This summary report highlights select findings from the nonresident 2021-2022 Montana Travel Experience Survey. Nonresident travelers who were interviewed by a surveyor in the state were given this survey along with the Nonresident Travel Survey after completing an in-person “Front End” survey at a gas station, rest area, or airport. Through June, 2022, 1,327 surveys were collected. Questions included topics related to visitors’ use of public lands, trip planning, and questions for first time and repeat visitors.

The Financialization Of Cryptocurrencies, Lei Huang, Tse-Chun Lin, Fangzhou Lu, Jian Sun

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We show that change in Grayscale Bitcoin Trust premium is the single most significant predictor of Bitcoin daily return. This sentiment measure is similar to the closed-end fund discount measure as in Baker and Wurgler (2006), but more likely to reflect the excess demand from traditional investors than from blockchain specialists. Although there is a substantial variation in Bitcoin price quotes worldwide, this Grayscale premium and discount predict Bitcoin daily return for the most liquid Bitcoin exchanges. Using K-means clustering and LDA analysis, we find that this predictability is especially significant when there is a large variation in bullish and …

Impact Of Geographical Diversification And Limited Attention On Private Equity Fund Returns, Victor Ong

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This article analyzes the effect of geographical diversification on global private equity (PE) fund returns. We find that there is a negative correlation between geographical diversification and PE fund returns. To establish the causality between geographical diversification and PE fund returns, we employ an instrumental variable analysis where the instrument used is the stock market capitalization of the host country where the PE fund is based. Our results apply to Net IRR, TVPI and DPI as dependent variables used to proxy for PE fund returns in the main regression model. A one standard deviation increase in geographical diversification results in …

Competing Social Influence In Contested Diffusion: Luther, Erasmus And The Spread Of The Protestant Reformation, Sascha O. Becker, Steven Pfaff, Yuan Hsiao, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

The spread of radical institutional change does not often result from one-sided pro-innovation influence; countervailing influence networks in support of the status quo can suppress adoption. We develop a model of multiple and competing network diffusion. To apply the contested-diffusion model to real data, we look at the contest between Martin Luther and Desiderius Erasmus, the two most influential intellectuals of early 16th-century Central Europe. Whereas Luther championed a radical reform of the Western Church that broke with Rome, Erasmus opposed him, stressing the unity of the Church. In the early phase of the Reformation, these two figures utilized influence …

When Bias Contributes To Variance: True Limit Theory In Functional Coefficient Cointegrating Regression, Peter C. B. Phillips, Ying Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Limit distribution theory in the econometric literature for functional coefficient cointegrating regression is incorrect in important ways, influencing rates of convergence, distributional properties, and practical work. The correct limit theory reveals that components from both bias and variance terms contribute to variability in the asymptotics. The errors in the literature arise because random variability in the bias term has been neglected in earlier research. In stationary regression this random variability is of smaller order and can be ignored in asymptotic analysis but not without consequences for finite sample performance. Implications of the findings for rate efficient estimation are discussed. Simulations …

Diagnosing Housing Fever With An Econometric Thermometer, Shuping Shi, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Housing fever is a popular term to describe an overheated housing market or housing price bubble. Like other financial asset bubbles, housing fever can inflict harm on the real economy, as indeed the U.S. housing bubble did in the period following 2006 leading up to the general financial crisis and great recession. One contribution that econometricians can make to minimize the harm created by a housing bubble is to provide a quantitative “thermometer” for diagnosing ongoing housing fever. Early diagnosis can enable prompt and effective policy action that reduces long-term damage to the real economy. This paper provides a selective …