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2022

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Articles 631 - 660 of 2026

Full-Text Articles in Economics

Inflation Expectations Can Be A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy, Aurobindo Ghosh, Khyati Chauhan, Muskan Bagrodia Aug 2022

Inflation Expectations Can Be A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy, Aurobindo Ghosh, Khyati Chauhan, Muskan Bagrodia

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In a commentary, SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh, SMU postgraduate student and Research Assistant for the SInDEx Project Muskan Bagrodia and International Monetary Fund Economic Research Assistant Khyati Chauhan weighed in on why inflation expectations matter as much as economic data. They discussed how inflation expectations can be a self-fulfilling prophecy, and shared the key takeaways of the quarterly DBS-Sim Kee Boon Institute’s Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (DBS-SKBI SInDEx) survey. They concluded that effective communication on inflation control measures, in addition to credible policy decisions, will help consumers feel assured and refrain from basing purchasing decisions …

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A Theory Of Crime And Vigilance, Jorge Vásquez Aug 2022

A Theory Of Crime And Vigilance, Jorge Vásquez

Economics: Faculty Publications

This paper develops a theory of crime in which potential victims elect their vigilance levels. When vigilance expenses are greater than expected property losses, an increase in penalties raises crime, namely, a criminal Laffer curve emerges. This curve is higher and peaks earlier when victims face higher costs. Thus, the government may wish to subsidize vigilance rather than increase penalties. Indeed, an increase in penalties may shift the vigilance levels further away from their socially optimal ones. Finally, the crime rate first rises and then falls in the property value at stake, which is consistent with the empirical evidence.

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Full Disclosure: Model Uncertainty In Adjusting For Confounders, Dieudonne Dusenge Aug 2022

Full Disclosure: Model Uncertainty In Adjusting For Confounders, Dieudonne Dusenge

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This study examines the role of knowledge about underlying causal relationships in classifying controls in order to mitigate omitted- and included-variable biases. Using simulations and accounting examples, the study shows that the researcher may not distinguish good and bad controls because the underlying causal relationships are unobservable, and remedying strategies (such as the relative timing of measurement) may not remove the uncertainty in the classification. Because of the uncertainty about which controls to use, two or more models will be credible as will the distinct estimates derived from them. Next, the study shows that the current standard practice of singling …

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The Imaginary And Epistemology Of Disaster Preparedness: The Case Of Japan's Nuclear Safety Failure, Hiro Saito Aug 2022

The Imaginary And Epistemology Of Disaster Preparedness: The Case Of Japan's Nuclear Safety Failure, Hiro Saito

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

The Fukushima nuclear disaster was profoundly a man-made one, resulting from the organizational failure of nuclear emergency preparedness. To fully understand the cause of this disaster, I propose to extend an organizational perspective on disasters into a macro-institutional perspective on disaster preparedness. To this end, I borrow from science and technology studies the concepts of "sociotechnical imaginary" and "civic epistemology" to probe the deepest layers of meaning-making constitutive of disaster preparedness. I then apply these concepts to the history of nuclear energy in postwar Japan that was centered on the developmental state pursuing industrial transformation. Specifically, I illustrate how the …

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The Cryptocurrency Participation Puzzle, Ran Duchin, David H. Solomon, Jun Tu, Xi Wang Aug 2022

The Cryptocurrency Participation Puzzle, Ran Duchin, David H. Solomon, Jun Tu, Xi Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We show that ongoing zero portfolio weights in cryptocurrency are surprisingly difficult to generate in a standard Bayesian portfolio theory framework. With ten years of prior data, equity market investors would need very pessimistic priors on mean returns to justify never having bought cryptocurrency: -10.6% per month for Bitcoin, and -19.6% per month for a diversified portfolio of cryptocurrencies. Moreover, most priors that involve never purchasing cryptocurrency imply that investors should short cryptocurrency. Optimal absolute weights are generally small but non-trivial (1-5%), frequently positive, and fairly smooth despite returns being volatile. Under a wide range of priors, the certainty equivalent …

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The Exchange Rate System Reform In China: Some Important Results, Paul S. L. Yip, Yiu Kuen Tse, Yingjie Dong Aug 2022

The Exchange Rate System Reform In China: Some Important Results, Paul S. L. Yip, Yiu Kuen Tse, Yingjie Dong

Research Collection School Of Economics

We provide a review and empirical study on the exchange rate system reform in China. In the initial stage of the reform the Chinese central bank PBoC's implicit promise of gradual appreciation helped to contain the appreciation rate and volatility of the renminbi. Subsequently, under US pressure for faster appreciation and hence the PBoC's moderate violation of the implicit promise, there was a significant rise in the appreciation rate and the volatility of the renminbi. The moderate violation deteriorated further, forming a vicious cycle of speculative flows and faster exchange rate changes. Upon the onset of the global financial crisis …

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International Asset Pricing With Strategic Business Groups, Massimo Massa, Hong Zhang, Hong Zhang Aug 2022

International Asset Pricing With Strategic Business Groups, Massimo Massa, Hong Zhang, Hong Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Firms in global markets often belong to business groups. We argue that this feature can have a profound influence on international asset pricing. In bad times, business groups may strategically reallocate risk across affiliated firms to protect core “central firms.” This strategic behavior induces co-movement among central firms, creating a new intertemporal risk factor. Based on a novel data set of worldwide ownership for 2002–2012, we find that central firms are better protected in bad times and that they earn relatively lower expected returns. Moreover, a centrality factor augments traditional models in explaining the cross section of international stock returns.

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Customer Concentration And Corporate Carbon Emissions, Saiying Deng, Tinghua Duan, Frank Weikai Li, Xiaoling Pu Aug 2022

Customer Concentration And Corporate Carbon Emissions, Saiying Deng, Tinghua Duan, Frank Weikai Li, Xiaoling Pu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper examines whether economic links with major corporate customers curb corporate carbon emissions. We show that supplier firms with a concentrated customer base have significantly lower carbon emissions. The baseline results are robust to alternative measures of carbon emissions and customer concentration, and various approaches that mitigate endogeneity concerns due to omitted variables and reverse causality. Moreover, the curbing effect of customer concentration on supplier carbon emissions is more pronounced in firms facing lower customer switching costs, with less (more) supplier (customer) bargaining power, fewer redeployable assets, operating in more carbon-intensive industries, and after the Paris Agreement of 2015. …

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The Embodiment Controversy: On The Policy Implications Of Vintage Capital Models, Roberto M. Samaniego, Juliana Yu Sun Aug 2022

The Embodiment Controversy: On The Policy Implications Of Vintage Capital Models, Roberto M. Samaniego, Juliana Yu Sun

Research Collection School Of Economics

We explore the long-run impact of policy on the level of economic activity through changes in the vintage distribution of capital, in a model where different vintages coexist in production. Because firms can choose the vintage of capital in which they invest, investment subsidies do not affect the vintage structure of capital. In contrast, vintage-specific taxes or subsidies that target the newest vintages of capital can significantly affect output and welfare in the long run, mainly downward. Transition dynamics are rapid, so that steady-state comparisons give an accurate picture of the welfare impact of vintage tax wedges.

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Intra-Firm Hierarchies And Gender Gaps, Nicolo Dalvit, Aseem Patel, Joanne Tan Aug 2022

Intra-Firm Hierarchies And Gender Gaps, Nicolo Dalvit, Aseem Patel, Joanne Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study how changes in female representation at the top of a firm’s organisation affect gender-specific outcomes across hierarchies within firms. We start by developing a theoretical model of a hierarchical firm, where gender representation in top organisational layers can affect gender-specific hiring and promotion probabilities at lower layers. We then exploit a recent French reform that imposed gender representation quotas in the boards of directors and test the model’s predictions in the data. Our empirical results show that the reform was successful in reducing gender wage and representation gaps at the upper layers of the firm, but not at …

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Strategic Parent Meets Detached Child? Parental Intended Bequest Division And Support From Children, Christine Ho Aug 2022

Strategic Parent Meets Detached Child? Parental Intended Bequest Division And Support From Children, Christine Ho

Research Collection School Of Economics

Whereas the literature has found that elderly parents may use bequests to reward children who provide them with time support, there is limited evidence on whether younger less needy parents may base their intended bequest division on alternative forms of support from children. Using a large-scale dataset of middle-aged and older Singaporeans, I find that parents intend to leave larger bequest shares to coresident children and to children who provide greater material support. Parents also intend to bequeath more to children in whom they confide frequently while they bequeath more to children in whom they rarely confide when the latter …

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The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff Of Covid-19 Lockdown Policies, Lin Ma, Gil Shapira, Damien De Walque, Quy-Toan Do, Jed Friedman, Andrei A. Levchenko Aug 2022

The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff Of Covid-19 Lockdown Policies, Lin Ma, Gil Shapira, Damien De Walque, Quy-Toan Do, Jed Friedman, Andrei A. Levchenko

Research Collection School Of Economics

In lower-income countries, the economic contractions that accompany lockdowns to contain COVID-19 transmission can increase child mortality, counteracting the mortality reductions achieved by the lockdown. To formalize and quantify this effect, we build a macro-susceptible-infected-recovered model that features heterogeneous agents and a country-group-specific relationship between economic downturns and child mortality and calibrate it to data for 85 countries across all income levels. We find that in some low-income countries, a lockdown can produce net increases in mortality. The optimal lockdown that maximizes the present value of aggregate social welfare is shorter and milder in poorer countries than in rich ones.

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Labor Market Implications Of Taiwan’S Accession To The Wto: A Dynamic Quantitative Analysis, Pao-Li Chang, Yi-Fan Chen, Wen-Tai Hsu, Xin Yi Aug 2022

Labor Market Implications Of Taiwan’S Accession To The Wto: A Dynamic Quantitative Analysis, Pao-Li Chang, Yi-Fan Chen, Wen-Tai Hsu, Xin Yi

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the effects of Taiwan’s accession to the WTO in 2002 on the labor market dynamics in Taiwan during 1995–2020. Based on the dynamic hat algebra of Caliendo, Dvorkin and Parro (2019), we modify the framework to allow for differently skilled labor inputs (low, middle, high) and sector-skill dynamic choice by workers. We map the model to the labor-market transition data in Taiwan (based on quasi-longitudinal household surveys), the country-sector-specific skill shares in production, and the bi-lateral trade flows and import tariffs, for 61 economies and 22 sectors for the period 1995–2007. We study the counterfactual dynamics if the …

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The Health And Socioeconomic Burdens Of Air Pollution And Public Preference For Air Quality Improvement, Niraj Khatiwada Jul 2022

The Health And Socioeconomic Burdens Of Air Pollution And Public Preference For Air Quality Improvement, Niraj Khatiwada

Economics ETDs

This dissertation consists of five chapters on air pollution. Chapter 1 discusses the issue of air pollution in two regions in South Asia: the Hindu-Kush Himalayan (HKH) Region and the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). Chapter 2 builds on the canonical health production function model to investigate the heterogeneity in air pollution exposure and health outcome using data from Siddharthanagar municipality of Nepal. I use a novel approach of directly measuring individual lung functions to assess respiratory health conditions. The findings reveal lower lung functions among outdoor workers and individuals from households residing near prominent local pollution sources. The use of exposure …

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The Trade War Of China And The Us In 2021, And It’S Impact On The Indonesian Economy, Marthen Napang, Syaiful Rohman Jul 2022

The Trade War Of China And The Us In 2021, And It’S Impact On The Indonesian Economy, Marthen Napang, Syaiful Rohman

Journal of Strategic and Global Studies

This study will explore the trade war between China and the United States (US). The US government initially paid close attention to the principle of free and open economics; this was because the US believed that free trade was not only to develop the US domestic economy but also as a tool to generate mutual benefits between cooperating countries. This is in contrast to the US in President Donald Trump 2017-2021, which implemented a policy of protectionism against Chinese trade. Trump did this as a strategy to overcome the negative impact of free trade, which in the end, the US …

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When Do Security Markets Aggregate Dispersed Information?, Brice Corgnet, Cary Deck, Mark Desantis, Kyle Hampton, Erik O. Kimbrough Jul 2022

When Do Security Markets Aggregate Dispersed Information?, Brice Corgnet, Cary Deck, Mark Desantis, Kyle Hampton, Erik O. Kimbrough

ESI Publications

We attempt to replicate a seminal paper that offered support for the rational expectations hypothesis and reported evidence that markets with certain features aggregate dispersed information. The original results are based on only a few observations, and our attempt to replicate the key findings with an appropriately powered experiment largely fails. The resulting poststudy probability that market performance is better described by rational expectations than the prior information (Walrasian) model under the conditions specified in the original paper is very low. As a result of our failure to replicate, we investigate an alternate set of market features that combines aspects …

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The Sri Lanka Paradox : Part – Ii, Ishrat Husain Dr. Jul 2022

The Sri Lanka Paradox : Part – Ii, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

Sri Lanka recorded a rapid increase in public debt-to-GDP ratio to 119 per cent from 42 per cent over a few years. Access to the international capital market was lost, export earnings plummeted, and import payments swelled up due to global price increases, prompting depletion of foreign exchange reserves to critically dangerous levels. Export earnings from tourism – which were $4.4 billion in 2018 or 5.6 per cent of GDP – dipped to 0.8 per cent of GDP. Remittances started drying up too, shrinking from $612 million in April 2021 to $205 million by February 2022. Petroleum prices tripled from …

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Social Norms And Dishonesty Across Societies, Diego Aycinena, Lucas Rentschler, Benjamin Beranek, Jonathan F. Schulz Jul 2022

Social Norms And Dishonesty Across Societies, Diego Aycinena, Lucas Rentschler, Benjamin Beranek, Jonathan F. Schulz

ESI Publications

Social norms have long been recognized as an important factor in curtailing antisocial behavior, and stricter prosocial norms are commonly associated with increased prosocial behavior. In this study, we provide evidence that very strict prosocial norms can have a perverse negative relationship with prosocial behavior. In laboratory experiments conducted in 10 countries across 5 continents, we measured the level of honest behavior and elicited injunctive norms of honesty. We find that individuals who hold very strict norms (i.e., those who perceive a small lie to be as socially unacceptable as a large lie) are more likely to lie to the …

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The True Cost Of Auto Insurance In The Mountain West, 2022, Annie Vong, Saha Salahi, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr. Jul 2022

The True Cost Of Auto Insurance In The Mountain West, 2022, Annie Vong, Saha Salahi, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Transportation & Infrastructure

This fact sheet examines data on average annual premiums, percent of income spent on auto insurance, and life events associated with the rising cost of auto insurance in the Mountain West (Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah). The original report includes data on national averages for auto insurance premiums for all fifty states.

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Why Has The Median Real Income Of Lawyers Been Declining?, James V. Koch, Barbara Blake-Gonzalez Jul 2022

Why Has The Median Real Income Of Lawyers Been Declining?, James V. Koch, Barbara Blake-Gonzalez

Economics Faculty Publications

The median real incomes of lawyers have been declining. In 2001, the median real income of lawyers in the 50 states plus the District of Columbia was $129,389 (July 2020 prices). Almost two decades later, in 2020, this number had fallen to $126,930, 1.90% less than in 2001. By contrast, the median real income of workers in all occupations together rose 3.93% between 2001 and 2020, while the median real income of the average family practice physician rose 20.15% and the median real income of a typical economist rose 10.9%. We examine both supply and demand influences to explain the …

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Shortage Of Affordable Rental Homes In The Mountain West, Joshua Padilla, Kelliann Beavers, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr. Jul 2022

Shortage Of Affordable Rental Homes In The Mountain West, Joshua Padilla, Kelliann Beavers, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Housing & Real Estate

This fact sheet examines data from the 2022 report by the National Low Income Housing Coalition (NLIHC), “The Gap: A Shortage of Affordable Homes” for the Mountain West region. The original report includes data from 2016- 2020 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) to help “determine the availability of rental homes affordable to extremely low-income households.”

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Student Loan Debt In Mountain West States, Zachary Walusek, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr. Jul 2022

Student Loan Debt In Mountain West States, Zachary Walusek, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Higher Education

This fact sheet summarizes findings on student loan debt across Mountain West states from “Student Loan Debt by State,” a report by the Education Data Initiative.

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Minimum Wage As A Tool For Combatting Renter Burdens, Jack Hanson Jul 2022

Minimum Wage As A Tool For Combatting Renter Burdens, Jack Hanson

Student Research – Stevenson Center

There is a severe shortage of affordable housing in the United States. In 2011, the number of low-cost rental units (units renting for $800 or less per month) stood around 23.5 million, but by 2017, this number dropped to 19.5 million, roughly a 17% decrease (Joint Center for Housing Studies, 2020). The result is that in 2020, only 37 affordable units exist for every 100 of the nation’s 10.8 million extremely low-income renters (those earning 30% or less of the area median income) (National Low Income Housing Coalition, 2021). One contributing factor is that higher-income households are beginning to rent …

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Firms And Unemployment Insurance Take-Up, Marta Lachowska, Isaac Sorkin, Stephen A. Woodbury Jul 2022

Firms And Unemployment Insurance Take-Up, Marta Lachowska, Isaac Sorkin, Stephen A. Woodbury

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We use administrative data to quantify the firm role in unemployment insurance (UI) take-up. First, there are firm effects in both claiming and appeals, and, consistent with deterrence effects, these are negatively correlated. Second, low-wage workers are less likely to claim and more likely to have their claims appealed than median-wage workers, and firm effects explain a large share of these income gradients. Third, high-claiming and low-appealing firms are desirable firms: they are higher-paying and have lower separation rates. Finally, the dominant source of targeting error in the UI system is that eligible workers do not apply. Our findings emphasize …

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Masthead 2022, Dujpew Editorial Board Jul 2022

Masthead 2022, Dujpew Editorial Board

Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Politics, Economics and World Affairs

No abstract provided.

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Letter From The Editor 2022, Dujpew Editorial Board Jul 2022

Letter From The Editor 2022, Dujpew Editorial Board

Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Politics, Economics and World Affairs

No abstract provided.

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Volume I | Issue Iv | 2022, Dujpew Editorial Board Jul 2022

Volume I | Issue Iv | 2022, Dujpew Editorial Board

Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Politics, Economics and World Affairs

No abstract provided.

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Triple (Identity) Threat: Multi-Layered National Identity Appeals In Republican Political Narratives During The 2016 And 2020 Presidential Elections, Brita Mackey Jul 2022

Triple (Identity) Threat: Multi-Layered National Identity Appeals In Republican Political Narratives During The 2016 And 2020 Presidential Elections, Brita Mackey

Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Politics, Economics and World Affairs

National identity, as a broadly constituted social identity category, has been shown to hold power both as a source of political mobilization and as an enforcer of democratic stability. In recent years, Republican voters have reported stronger national attachments than Democrats, perhaps due to national identity’s longstanding implicit associations with white racial identity – and the rising prominence of multiculturalist and globalist ideologies in recent decades. In light of such findings, I propose that the rhetoric of Republican political elites may function to further exacerbate a stronger sense of national identity among their base by appealing to conjoined national and …

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Econometric Analysis Of The Relationship Between Domestic Economic Growth And Levels Of Inflow Of Remittances In Developing Countries, Mihail Naskovski Jul 2022

Econometric Analysis Of The Relationship Between Domestic Economic Growth And Levels Of Inflow Of Remittances In Developing Countries, Mihail Naskovski

Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Politics, Economics and World Affairs

The international global migration has produced an exponential growth of remittances, which can be defined as the transfer of funds from one country to another. This study will inspect the macroeconomic impact of remittance inflow on economic growth using panel regression, covering the period from 1981 to 2020 and focusing on a sample of 152 countries, then filtered by 4 geographical regions for additional analysis. Like many studies before, a consensus about an overall effect of the flows on global level could not be reached from his study following the analysis of the general sample. However, on a more specific …

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Identifying Potential Pork-Barrel Legislation Using Machine Learning: A Preliminary Analysis, Sunil Green Jul 2022

Identifying Potential Pork-Barrel Legislation Using Machine Learning: A Preliminary Analysis, Sunil Green

Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Politics, Economics and World Affairs

Pork-barrel legislation has been criticized by some as an excessive and potentially corrupt use of Congressional appropriations. The task of finding the specific parts of legislation that have been “pork-barreled”, however, requires many hours of labor by policy researchers. Using data from government watchdogs and machine learning algorithms, the research explores the idea of creating a model to flag specific line items of appropriations bills for policy researchers to further explore as potential pork-barrel legislation. The model constructed uses data from the Earmark Database by Taxpayers for Common Sense, and the Congressional Pig Book by Citizens Against Government Waste to …

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