Economics Commons^™

Essays On The Short-Term Impact Of Minimum Unit Pricing Policy In Scotland, Irena P. Xhurxhi

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of two chapters, and it evaluates the short-term impact of Scotland’s Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) policy on a variety of outcome measures. Excessive alcohol consumption has long been considered one of Scotland’s greatest public health challenges, and in an attempt to change this harmful relationship with alcohol, the Scottish Government proposed an alcohol strategy comprising of over 40 measures, a central part of which was the introduction of a statutory minimum price of 50 pence per unit (10ml/8gr) of alcohol known as Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP). This policy aims to reduce alcohol consumption, and in turn, alcohol …

Essays On Paid Sick Leave In The United States, Shaoying Ma

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of two chapters.

Chapter 1 This study estimates the causal effect of access to paid sick leave on worker mobility, by exploiting variation in the implementation of local paid sick leave mandates over time in the U.S. I use May 2004 - June 2019 Current Population Survey (CPS) basic monthly data, and by taking a Difference-in-Differences approach, I find that the local mandates significantly reduce private sector employees' monthly job turnover. This study is, to the best of my knowledge, the first to present the effect of local paid sick leave mandates in the U.S. on worker …

Multiplex Network Ties And The Spatial Diffusion Of Radical Innovations: Martin Luther’S Leadership In The Early Reformation, Sascha O. Becker, Yuan Hsiao, Steven Pfaff, Jared Rubin

ESI Publications

This article analyzes Martin Luther’s role in spreading the early Reformation, one of the most important episodes of radical institutional change in the last millennium. We argue that social relations played a key role in its diffusion because the spread of heterodox ideologies and their eventual institutionalization relied not only on private “infection” through exposure to innovation but also on active conversion and promotion of that new faith through personal ties. We conceive of that process as leader-to-follower directional influence originating with Luther and flowing to local elites through personal ties. Based on novel data on Luther’s correspondence, Luther’s visits, …

The Influence Of Learning And Price-Level Targeting On Central Bank Forward Guidance, Stephen J. Cole

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

This paper examines how the effectiveness of central bank forward guidance depends on two key channels: the expectations formation process and the monetary policy regime. The results show that rational expectations relative to an adaptive learning rule amplifies the positive benefits a price-level targeting central bank creates for forward guidance. Specifically, forward guidance generates greater amounts of output and inflation under a price-level than inflation targeting monetary policy regime, but rational expectations overstates these positive benefits compared to adaptive learning. The different responses of expectations between rational expectations and adaptive learning to forward guidance are driving this performance gap. Thus, …

Essays On Trade Liberalization, Structural Change, And Technical Efficiency, Li Zhao

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

A recent and growing literature analyzes differential growth across regions of Asia, Latin America, and Sub Saharan Africa. The structural change of labor reallocation is an important determinant of growth in developing countries having large productivity gaps across sectors within the border. Therefore, sectoral characteristics are still an important determinant of cross-region studies. In addition, it is well-known that labor reallocation across economic sectors does not automatically occur without external shocks, especially from international trade.

However, recent studies debate the importance of trade policy as more research focuses on the cost of transportation and communication in international trade and economic …

A Defense And Expansion Of The Theory Of Capitalist Ground Rent: Speculation, Securitization, And Struggles Over Land And Housing, Francesca Manning

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Why are the rents so high? Who is responsible for homelessness, for urban and rural displacement? How can these problems be combatted?

Recent literature addressing these questions has pointed to gentrification and the financialization of land and housing, faulted financialized landlords, hedge funds, and the irredeemable logic of finance, and pointed to the importance of land and housing regulation to prevent displacement.

However, theories of displacement—in both land and housing, on both urban and rural terrain—suffer from a lack of an underlying theory of the logic, tendencies, and limits of ground rent extraction in capitalism.

This dissertation develops a theory …

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 4, Number 9, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton, Ana Gutierrez Zubiate, Ignacio Santana

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Tahap Kemiskinan Masyarakat Orang Asli Melalui Pendekatan Model Kemiskinan Multidimensi Di Malaysia: Kajian Kes Di Terengganu, Abdullah Muhammad Fuad

Student Works (2020-2029)

Kemiskinan dan ketidakseimbangan sosioekonomi merupakan suatu fenomena global yang perlu ditangani dalam menjadikan Malaysia sebagai sebuah negara maju. Namun begitu, pengukuran kemiskinan unidimensi (pendapatan atau perbelanjaan) melalui purata pendapatan garis kemiskinan (PGK) digunakan di Malaysia tidak menggambarkan kekurangan dan taraf hidup sebenar masyarakat. Pendekatan pengukuran kemiskinan multidimensi yang diperkenalkan oleh United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) merupakan metode yang lebih sesuai digunakan dalam mengukur kemiskinan sebenar masyarakat kerana ia melibatkan pelbagai dimensi dan indikator. Oleh yang demikian, kajian ini telah mengaplikasikan kaedah pengukuran kemiskinan multidimensi menggunakan empat dimensi dengan 17 indikator terhadap masyarakat Orang Asli di Terengganu, Malaysia. Objektif kajian ini …

Income Inequality And Crime: Consumption Channel, Ishak Nur Annizah

Student Works (2020-2029)

The general objective of this study is to examine the relationship between income inequality and crime. Many studies have discussed the relationship between inequality and crime. However, all the literature focused on ‘absolute’ measurements, such as income, poverty, Gini index, education, and employment. They neglected the importance of ‘relative concept’ - a missing element of the way economists analyze inequality. This study argues income inequality is visible through conspicuous consumption. Hence this study proposes conspicuous consumption as another possible channel that could explain the relationship between inequality and crime. Specifically, this study comprises of four specific research objectives. The first …

Trade And Health Linkages: A Global Panel Data Analysis Using The Gravity Model, Pallavi Panda

School of Business

This paper provides empirical evidence on the effect of trade openness on child health using the data from 171 countries between the mid-1990s to mid-2000s. Using an instrumental variable approach with a geographic gravity model framework, this study finds that a 1% increase in openness leads to a 0.2% decrease in infant mortality rates across countries, which at the sample mean is about 8 infant deaths per 1000 live births. The result is robust to country-specific time-invariant heterogeneity as well as outliers. The main channels of operation seem to be through increasing incomes, increasing health expenditures, and decreasing inequality.

The Economic Impact Of Covid-19: Rebuilding The Las Vegas Economy, Jaewon Lim

Policy Briefs and Reports

This study analyzes the recent trends of monthly visitors to the Las Vegas-ParadiseHenderson, NV metropolitan statistical area (MSA) for the first five months of 2020. In addition, six scenarios for the seven-month period of June through December 2020 estimate the net loss of visitors to Southern Nevada and the impact for the state economy in terms of employment, income, the total value added (contribution to Gross State Product), output sales, and state and local tax revenues. The counter-factual scenario – projecting the regional economy if no COVID-19 outbreak occurred – serves as a baseline scenario that allows measurement of the …

The Limits Of Central Bank Forward Guidance Under Learning, Stephen J. Cole

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

This paper investigates the effectiveness of central bank forward guidance while relaxing two standard macroeconomic assumptions: rational expectations and frictionless financial markets. The results show that the addition of financial frictions amplifies the differences between rational expectations and adaptive learning to forward guidance. During a period of economic crisis, output under rational expectations displays more favorable responses to forward guidance than under adaptive learning. These differences are exacerbated when compared with a similar analysis without financial frictions. Thus, monetary policymakers should consider the way in which expectations and credit frictions are modeled when examining the effects of forward guidance.

Three Essays On Natural Rates, Huseyin U. Demir

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1. Non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment and Non-accelerating inflation rate of output We followed Ball and Mankiw (2002) to estimate the natural rates of output and unemployment. The primary purposes of this paper are to provide more accurate estimates of a varying non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) than currently exist and to nd a new measure for the nonaccelerating inflation rate of output so we can estimate the output gap more accurately. Our contributions are adding time-varying coefficients estimated with a break test and finding more accurate measurements for the natural rate of unemployment. We also estimated the …

Fiscal And Monetary Policies And Stock Market, Ilhami Gunduz

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters.

The first chapter analyzes the stock market transmission channel of the monetary policy of the Turkish economy not only at the aggregate but also at the sectoral level in a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework. I adopt alternative variables as a policy instrument. When the spread is used as a policy instrument, I find that contractionary monetary policy has a significant negative effect on both output and the price level and it appreciates the Turkish Lira. In addition, tight monetary policy reduces both aggregate and sectoral market returns. Hence, the results suggest that policymakers …

Menu-Dependent Food Choices And Food Waste, Hongxing Liu, Joaquín Gómez-Miñambres, Danyi Qi

ESI Working Papers

We use a combination of randomized field experiments and online surveys to test how the menu design affects food choices and food waste. In our field experiment, participants face one of two menus: a narrow menu that only displays a small portion of food, or a broad menu that also contains bigger portions. While all options are equally available in both menus, they differ in how easy and fast the different choices can be made. Our results show that, compared to the broad menu, participants in the narrow menu ordered smaller portions of food. Importantly, food intake was similar across …

Selective Reshaping: China's Paradigm Shift In International Economic Governance, Heng Wang

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

In contrast with the selective adaptation approach toward external norms seen in its accession to the World Trade Organization, China increasingly plays a proactive role on the international stage, with the Belt and Road Initiative at the center of these activities. How can we understand this new approach by China toward international economic governance? What is responsible for China's shifting approach, and what are the implications of this shift? The paper presents selective reshaping as a new theoretical framework, and argues that China is shifting toward the selective reshaping of institutions and rules within the global economic order. Within this …

Swinging Shale: Shale Oil, Global Oil Market, And The Geopolitics Of Oil, Inwook Kim

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Is shale oil “revolutionizing” the global oil market and the geopolitics of oil? If so, how? While two aspects of the shale boom—a new source of supply and a cause for the price collapse in 2014–2015—dominate the conventional wisdom, I argue that the most revolutionary change is the least understood aspect of shale oil—shale oil producers’ rise as new swing suppliers due to its unique extraction technique and cost structure. Shale oil producers also differ from traditional swing producers in motives, contexts, and an amount of accessible excess capacity such that while shale oil lowers the medium-term price ceiling, it …

The Optimal Degree Of Reciprocity In Tariff Reduction, Pao-Li Chang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper characterizes the optimal reciprocal trade policy in the environment of Melitz (2003) with firm productivity heterogeneity. With all the conflicting effects of import tariffs on welfare considered, the optimal degree of reciprocity in multilateral tariff reduction is shown to be free trade.

Universal Minimum Wage Is Not Suitable For Singapore, Zhengxiao Wu

Research Collection School Of Economics

In a commentary, SMU Senior Lecturer of Statistics Wu Zhengxiao examined the concept of a universal minimum wage, and discussed how it is not suitable for Singapore.

Spending Impact Of Covid-19 Stimulus Payments: Evidence From Card Transaction Data In South Korea, Kim, Kanghyock Koh, Wonjun Lyou

Research Collection School Of Economics

Various countries have implemented transfer programs to individuals since the Covid-19 outbreaks. However, the extent to which such transfers alleviate economic recessions is unclear. This paper analyzes a South Korean program, which provided vouchers redeemable only at small local businesses. We find that, due to the program, over 30% of households across all income groups increased their food and overall household spending, but the usage restriction may have affected consumer choice, distorting business competition. While the employment and sales of small businesses improved, the program’s fiscal sustainability is in question because of the large tax exemption.

The Optimal Degree Of Reciprocity In Tariff Reduction, Pao-Li Chang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper characterizes the optimal reciprocal trade policy in the environment of Melitz (2003) with firm productivity heterogeneity. In particular, without making parametric assumptions on firm productivity distribution, this paper derives the optimal degree of reciprocal tariff reductions that maximize the world welfare. A reciprocal import subsidy raises the industry productivity, lowering aggregate price; a reciprocal import tariff helps correct the markup distortion, increasing nominal income. With all the conflicting effects of import tariffs on welfare considered, the optimal degree of reciprocity in multilateral tariff reduction is shown to be free trade.

Order On Types Based On Monotone Comparative Statics, Takashi Kunimoto, Takuro Yamashita

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper introduces a novel concept of orders on types by which the so-called monotone comparative statics is valid in all supermodular games with incomplete information. We fully characterize this order in terms of what we call common optimism, providing a sense in which our order has a sharp epistemic interpretation. We say that type ti′ is higher than type ti in the order of the common optimism if ti′ is more optimistic about state than ti; ti′ is more optimistic that all players are more optimistic about state than ti; and so on, ad infinitum. First, we show that …

Maximum Likelihood Estimation For The Fractional Vasicek Model, Katsuto Tanaka, Weilin Xiao, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper estimates the drift parameters in the fractional Vasicek model from a continuous record of observations via maximum likelihood (ML). The asymptotic theory for the ML estimates (MLE) is established in the stationary case, the explosive case, and the boundary case for the entire range of the Hurst parameter, providing a complete treatment of asymptotic analysis. It is shown that changing the sign of the persistence parameter changes the asymptotic theory for the MLE, including the rate of convergence and the limiting distribution. It is also found that the asymptotic theory depends on the value of the Hurst parameter.

Estimation Of Conditional Average Treatment Effects With High-Dimensional Data, Qingliang Fan, Yu-Chin Hsu, Robert P. Lieli, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Given the unconfoundedness assumption, we propose new nonparametric estimators for the reduced dimensional conditional average treatment effect (CATE) function. In the first stage, the nuisance functions necessary for identifying CATE are estimated by machine learning methods, allowing the number of covariates to be comparable to or larger than the sample size. This is a key feature since identification is generally more credible if the full vector of conditioning variables, including possible transformations, is high-dimensional. The second stage consists of a low-dimensional kernel regression, reducing CATE to a function of the covariate(s) of interest. We consider two variants of the estimator …

Capital Controls And Macro-Prudential Housing Policies In Small Open Economies, Taojun Xie, Guay C. Lim, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

We evaluate the effects of capital controls and macro-prudential policies in small open economies with a housing sector that is open to foreign ownership. The work is motivated by concerns that foreign investments also respond to housing investment opportunities resulting in potential house price inflation and issues about housing affordability. Our dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model features housing as an internationally traded investment. We also consider macro-prudential policies that are combinations of monetary and fiscal instruments. We investigate whether foreign investments in the housing markets are de-stabilising and whether there are appropriate policy responses to mitigate the negative effects of …

Do Short Sellers Use Textual Information? Evidence From Annual Reports, Hung Wan Kot, Frank Weikai Li, Ming Liu, K.C. John Wei

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine short-sellers’ use of textual information in annual reports for shorting activities. We find that more uncertainty and negative words in annual reports are associated with greater abnormal shorting volume. Short selling motivated by textual information negatively predicts stock price reaction around the filing date of 10-K reports. We further provide some evidence that textual information used by short-sellers are related to revisions of analysts’ earnings forecasts, changes in firm fundamentals, and increasing crash risk subsequently. Our results suggest that textual information in annual reports forms an important part of short-sellers’ information advantage.

Role Of The Botoh As Political Brokers And Gamblers During The Tulungagung Local Election Of 2018, Mohammad Darry Abiyyu

Jurnal Politik

Current studies on the botoh generally focus on gambling in village-head elections (pilkades) and how its role transforms from pilkades to local elections (pilkada). However, this article defines the botoh as a political broker and gambler during the 2018 local election of Tulungagung Regency. This research found that the botoh’s way of persuading voters had a positive effect on an unfavorable candidate and helped him win. This study conducted in-depth interviews of “big” botoh, observed field operation patterns, and collected documents from related parties. The practice of gambling during pilkada is categorized into three types: ngapit, leg-leg’an, and biting. This …

Providing Child Care, Christine Ho, Sunha Myong

Research Collection School Of Economics

Women’s economic empowerment has been hailed as one of the most remarkable revolutions in the past 50 years (Dunlop, 2010). Access to affordable childcare is one of the key determinants of fertility and maternal employment, with grandparents and governments often stepping up to provide much needed support to families. This chapter proposes a synthesis of the state of knowledge on child care and discusses policy relevant issues applicable to the Singapore context. Selected policies are documented and lessons from the international landscape are discussed. The chapter discusses how child care costs may affect fertility and maternal labour supply in Section …

Covid-19, Lockdown, And The Dynamics Of Subjective Well-Being, Terence C. Cheng, Kim, Kanghyock Koh

Research Collection School Of Economics

We provide novel evidence on how the COVID-19 global health and economic crisis is affecting overall life satisfaction and domain-specific satisfaction using data from a monthly longitudinal survey of middle-aged and older Singaporeans. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we document large declines in overall life satisfaction and domain-specific satisfaction during the COVID-19 outbreak, except satisfaction with health. These declines coincide with the introduction of a nationwide lockdown, with life satisfaction remaining below its pre-pandemic levels even after the lockdown is lifted. We also find that individuals who report a drop in household income during the COVID-19 outbreak experience a decline in …

What Are Total Export Commitments Telling Us About Beef’S Potential In 2020: Positive Signs?, Elliott James Dennis

Extension Farm and Ranch Management News

Overarching Market Conditions

The recent cattle on feed report suggests that cattle feedlots are coming closer to sorting through much of the backlog associated with plant closures and shutdowns as a result of plant workers testing positive for COVID-19 and plants implementing CDC and OSHA worker health recommendations. For example, the number of cattle on feed over 90 days has dipped below 2019 levels for the first time since April. However, cattle on feed over 120 days is still about 10% higher than 2019. The result of cattle being on feed longer is sustained record level dressed weights for both …