Economics Commons^™

Estimating Auction Equilibria Using Individual Evolutionary Learning, Kevin James

Computational and Data Sciences (PhD) Dissertations

I develop the Generalized Evolutionary Nash Equilibrium Estimator (GENEE) library. The tool is designed to provide a generic computational library for running genetic algorithms and individual evolutionary learning in economic decision-making environments. Most importantly, I have adapted the library to estimate equilibria bidding functions in auctions. I show it produces highly accurate estimates across a large class of auction environments with known solutions. I then apply GENEE to estimate the equilibria of two additional auctions with no known solutions: first-price sealed-bid common value auctions with multiple signals, and simultaneous first-price auctions with subadditive values

Reinventing The Wheel: Comparing Family Friendly Vegas And Adult Friendly Vegas Revenue Growth, James Vaughn

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The one constant for Las Vegas is change, always looking for the Next Big Thing™. In the 1990s, Las Vegas engaged in a grand experiment: roller coasters, amusement parks, family pools and shows. In the 2000s, Las Vegas reinvented itself back to its roots: condo not amusement parks, sensual not swashbuckling shows, topless European ultra-pools not kiddie pools. While the house always wins, did the casinos of the 1990s or 2000s beat the ultimate house, going beyond nominal revenue growth into the jackpot of real revenue growth?

Commentary: Reflections On Decision Research And Its Empiricism: Four Comments Inspired By Harrison, Nathaniel T. Wilcox

ESI Publications

"Generally I find Harrison's chapter cogent, interesting, and well-informed in details and particulars, and so do not speak of them. Instead, I reflect on four larger matters Harrison brings to my mind. These four matters are presented below as four separate sections, to be read as four separate and short comments (though the four sections do share a few threads)."

Effects Of U.S. Financial Regulations On Labor Markets, Anindo U. Sarker

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

This thesis is based on a collection of three essays which study the effects of financial policy on labor markets. The first two essays investigate the effects of U.S. bank branching deregulation on labor markets. The first essay studies how these regulations impacted wages and working hours of traditional payroll workers. The second essay studies the impact of these policy reforms on the occupational choice to engage in self-employed work. The main finding of this set of studies is credit access has real effects on the workforce. Estimates from the econometric analysis used in this study suggest that credit access …

The Unpredictable Positive Effects Of Sports Gambling: Gamblers Think Losing Feels Worse Than It Actually Feels, Guy Voichek, Nathan Novemsky

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Implications statement

Gamblers underestimate how much fun small wagers add to enjoying sports events. They think losing will feel worse than it really does. Simple reminder can correct this misprediction.

Abstract

When considering whether to gamble on a sporting event, people may ask themselves how winning or losing will affect their experience. In a series of four experiments, we find that people under-appreciate the positive effect of gambling on watching sporting events, in a way that causes them to under-value the opportunity to place a small stakes gamble. While participants predict that a gamble will enhance or diminish an experience …

Does Near Win Affect People's Investment Behavior?, Jia Yuan

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Near win is a special kind of failure that comes closely to actual success. It shows up frequently in people’s investment behavior. Only a few studies have researched on the relation between near win and its impact on the future investment. And in the literature, there are conflicting results on this issue. In this paper, we examine the effect of near win on people’s investment amount by exploiting a unique panel individual level lottery purchase data with over 100,000 players which trace each of their purchases for several months. We find that people who have experienced a near win would …

Public Interests And Economic Regulation Of Gambling, Rein Halbersma, Joost Poort

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

In the Netherlands, the Betting and Gaming Act from 1964 largely determines the current structure of gambling markets. The policy was to channel consumers to a limited number of licensed operators. This led to state-owned monopolies for lotteries, sports betting and casinos, a private monopoly for horse race betting, a limited number of privately owned charity lotteries, and a large number of private slot machines operators.

Pending legislation proposes an online market without a limit on the number of operators. Furthermore, state ownership will be phased out, and introduced legislation to privatizing and expanding the number of casinos. The current …

Iq And Gambling Consumption: An Analysis Of Horse Race Betting Participation And Expenditure Using Individual-Level Data, Niko Suhonen, Tuomo Kainulainen, Jani Saastamoinen, David Forrest Prof.

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Abstract

Recent literature suggests that intelligence is positively associated with economic outcomes involving risky decisions such as investment portfolio returns (Grinblatt et al. 2012). Gambling is a form of entertainment in which consumers buy risky products with negative expected values. However, the relationship between intelligence and gambling consumption is not understood yet. We use a unique individual-level data set from Finland to investigate how intelligence predicts gambling participation and expenditure. Our data consists of betting data from a monopoly horse race betting operator (betting participation and expenditure on betting), background information on the Finnish adult population from Statistics Finland (e.g. …

In Search Of Equilibrium – How Regulatory Changes Impact The Gambling Industry In Poland, Sebastian Meitz, Stanisław Pogorzelski, Przemysław Bloch

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The so-called Polish “gambling affair” of 2009 resulted in the adoption of a new Act on Gambling. The regulation significantly changed the legal environment in Poland. It was also the starting point of what we identified as the search of equilibrium - a number of further legislative changes aimed at creating a sustainable environment for gambling. Some market segments became delegalized, some monopolized, and others liberalized. The Polish Ministry of Finance and the parliament tried to find the right balance between consumer protection, business growth, and government revenue. A goal that is still to be achieved.

This article examines the …

What Is A Game Of Chance? An Application To Loot Boxes, Wessel Oomens

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The traditional landscape of games of chance such as lotteries, betting, casinos and slots has become intertwined with complex financial products as well as digital games with elements of chance.

The Netherlands Gambling Authority has issued a guidance paper outlining a five-step decision process in order to determine whether a game classifies as gambling:

• Threshold: is the number of providers, players and the amount money involved considerable enough to warrant spending resources in assessing the game?
• Overlap: is there potential overlap with other rules and regulations, in particular those governing financial products?
• Prize: does the game award its winners with …

Environmental Degradation And Economics Growth: Testing The Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis (Ekc) In Six Asean Countries, Zhen Yang (Rex) Chng

Journal of Undergraduate Research at Minnesota State University, Mankato

Environmental issues have been widely reported in recent years. From climate change to plastic waste, environmental quality is deteriorating at an unprecedented speed in human history. Environmental degradation is believed to have tied to the different stages of a country’s economic growth, as the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis suggested. Despite the proliferation of research about the EKC hypothesis, no consensus has been reached in the field regarding the validation of the hypothesis. This paper employs time-series methods to empirically investigates the impacts of economic growth, trade openness, energy consumption, and foreign direct investment on environmental degradation in six selected …

Modeling The Economic Machine Using Bayesian Inference And Statistical Networks, And Optimal Portfolio Construction Using Operations Research, Richard Yang

ENGS 88 Honors Thesis (AB Students)

In this paper, we propose a network-based model to attempt to connect modern macroeconomic theory with real world economic observations and trends. We find that by extending macroeconomic theory with credit leveraging/deleveraging thresholds, we are able to explain economic cycles in addition to long-term growth. Furthermore, we specifically explore the growth-inflation view of the macro economy as a basis for optimal portfolio construction and efficient asset trading. Connecting our network-based macroeconomic model and our optimal portfolio construction algorithm, we create a novel macroeconomic asset-trading framework.

University Technology Transfer Efficiency In A Factor Driven Economy: The Need For A Coherent Policy In Egypt, Hala Elhadidi, David A. Kirby

Business Administration

The article examines the effectiveness of instruments to promote technology transfer and foster entrepreneurial innovation in Egypt where there are individual measures but no com- prehensive, unified policy or strategy to promote the transfer and commercialisation of the intellectual property stemming from university research. The study examines the extent of technology transfer in the country and the effectiveness of the various existing measures through a four-phase investigation involving in-depth interviews with experts, a question- naire survey of 400 Egyptian Science, Engineering and Technology academics, three case studies of Technology Transfer Offices and a 237 respondent industry survey. The results indicate …

Job-Interview Referrals Help Brazilians Find Formal-Sector Jobs, Christopher J. O'Leary, Túlio Cravo, Ana Cristina Sierra, Leandro Justino Veloso

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Point-Of-Decision Prompts And Cognitive Resources, Christopher R. Gustafson

Cornhusker Economics

Many of us have long-term goals to maintain or achieve a healthy body weight. However, most of us have a hard time following through on these plans. Maintaining a healthy body weight requires constant consideration of the future consequences of our current actions, which are shaped by our immediate desires, such as eating the tasty-looking brownie at the coffee shop or relaxing after a long day of work instead of forcing ourselves to go to the gym. The difficulty in balancing short-term and long-term goals is reflected in the change in the average American body type over the past five …

The Effect Of Job Referrals On Labor Market Outcomes In Brazil, Christopher J. O'Leary, Túlio Cravo, Ana Cristina Sierra, Leandro Justino Veloso

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper is the first to use program administrative data from Brazil’s National Employment System (SINE) to assess the impact of SINE job interview referrals on labor market outcomes. Data for a five-year period (2012–2016) are used to evaluate the impact of SINE on employment probability, wage rates, time until reemployment, and job tenure. Difference-in-differences estimates suggest that a SINE job interview referral increases the probability of finding a job within three months of the referral and reduces the number of months to find reemployment, the average job tenure of the next job, and the reemployment wage. Subgroup analysis suggests …

Gambling Behavior In Controlled Laboratory Experiments, Don Ross, J. Todd Swarthout

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

We designed a slot machine interface to study gambling behavior over real monetary amounts in a controlled laboratory environment. The interface allowed us to study the effect of multiple playlines compared to single playlines, the use of abstract tokens instead of allowing the gambler to see expenditures and payoffs in a natural currency, the effect of “near miss” displays on subjective beliefs about the chances of winning, and the effect of “wins disguised as losses” on gambling behavior. We measured the risk preferences of each subject, allowing for probability weighting and loss aversion, as well as the evolution of subjective …

A Schumpeterian Approach To Examine The Development Boundary Of Casino Tourism, Ricado C. S. Siu, Joey P. U. Sou

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

In The Theory of Economic Development, Joseph Schumpeter ([1934] 1983, Chapter II) explicates how the dynamic role of innovative mindset and ability of entrepreneurs, through introducing new methods of production and new economic commodities, leads up to the expansion of the boundary for economic/industrial development.

By following Schumpeter’s approach, we explore the development boundary of casino tourism. Through a post facto analysis of the hard evidences derived across the world (e.g., Las Vegas, Macao and Singapore) since the 1980s, the dimensions of innovation to the development boundary of casino tourism are scrutinized and explicated. Besides, we uncovered that the …

An Agi With Time-Inconsistent Preferences, James D. Miller, Roman V. Yampolskiy

Economics: Faculty Publications

This paper reveals a trap for artificial general intelligence (AGI) theorists who use economists’ standard method of discounting. This trap is implicitly and falsely assuming that a rational AGI would have time consistent preferences. An agent with time-inconsistent preferences knows that its future self will disagree with its current self concerning intertemporal decision making. Such an agent cannot automatically trust its future self to carry out plans that its current self considers optimal.

Competition And Cooperation In Polygynous & Monogamous Households: Experimental Evidence From Sierra Leone, Bethany Gerdemann

Master's Theses

Competition and cooperation in polygynous households have both been widely documented across various disciplines. There is contradictory evidence as to whether these interpersonal dynamics produce better or worse outcomes for the household. This study uses a competitiveness game and a series of dictator games to measure competition and cooperation within households and between marriage types. Results show that there are key differences between monogamy and polygyny. Monogamous women compete less with their husbands than stranger and less in comparison to polygynous women. Monogamous spouses are more likely to forgo economic opportunities than polygynous spouses and have a greater preference for …

Working Paper No. 12, Technological Convergence And Institutional Evolution In The Energy Sector, James Bennett

Working Papers in Economics

Over a span of more than a hundred years, fossil fuel production could be considered as a long-standing ceremonial technology in the Veblenian sense. However in recent times, due to rapid innovation through technological convergence, renewable energy is becoming just as cost effective and threatens to replace fossil fuels. Robert McCullough observes this change in renewable energy costs, in his report “The End of Big Iron”. Thorsten Veblen’s dichotomy between ceremonial and instrumental technologies, and his thoughts on institutional change can also aide in explaining this recent struggle between “ceremonial” fossil fuels and “instrumental” renewable energy technologies. Nathan Rosenberg should …

Essays On Interplay Between Economics And Culture, Ishita Tripathi

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation constitutes of two distinct essays on the influence of terrorism on individual perception and belief formation. In the first study, using micro-level data from 32 European countries, we find that an increase in terrorist activities by foreign perpetrators instigates negative sentiments towards immigrants. But the intensity of this adverse impact of terrorism decreases with time. Additionally, our analysis reveals that the effect of terrorism varies across individuals depending on various socio-economic attributes. Terrorism has a stronger negative influence on the residents, if their own country hosts relatively larger number of migrants. Individuals are not affected by terrorist attacks …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: May 22, 2019, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) rose by 0.79% during April of 2019. The increase in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, implies moderate economic growth in Nebraska through the end of 2019. Strong business expectations were again the primary reason for the increase in the leading indicator. Respondents to the April Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase both sales and employment at their businesses over the next six months. There also was growth in manufacturing hours-worked during the month.

Four Steps To Improved Group Productivity, Cheryl A. Burkhart-Kriesel

Cornhusker Economics

Just ask anyone - people waste a lot of time in meetings – all kinds of meetings. The meetings could be work related, within community organizations or even within a family. They can be anywhere people get together and want to go beyond a discussion and move toward action. Groups, both large and small, often discuss important issues but many times the conversations are all over the place or they are so short that decisions are often hard to make due to the lack of clarity and focus in the discussion.

Want to change that situation? If so, here is …

Charleston And The Emergence Of Middle-Class Culture In The Revolutionary Era. By Jennifer L. Goloboy, Elizabeth White Nelson

History Faculty Research

No abstract provided.

Longer-Run Effects Of Antipoverty Policies On Disadvantaged Neighborhoods, David Neumark, Brian J. Asquith, Brittany Bass

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We estimate the longer-run effects of minimum wages, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and welfare on key economic indicators of economic self-sufficiency in disadvantaged neighborhoods. We find that the longer-run effects of the EITC are to increase employment and to reduce poverty and public assistance. We also find some evidence that higher welfare benefits had longer-run adverse effects, and quite robust evidence that tighter welfare time limits reduce poverty and public assistance in the longer run. The evidence on the long-run effects of the minimum wage on poverty and public assistance is not robust, with some evidence pointing to reductions …

Can Antipoverty Policies Change Neighborhood Outcomes In The Long Run?, Brian J. Asquith

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Attribute Sentiment Scoring With Online Text Reviews: Accounting For Language Structure And Missing Attributes, Ishita Chakraborty, Minkyung Kim, K. Sudhir

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The authors address two significant challenges in using online text reviews to obtain fine-grained attribute level sentiment ratings. First, they develop a deep learning convolutional-LSTM hybrid model to account for language structure, in contrast to methods that rely on word frequency. The convolutional layer accounts for the spatial structure (adjacent word groups or phrases) and LSTM accounts for the sequential structure of language (sentiment distributed and modified across non-adjacent phrases). Second, they address the problem of missing attributes in text in construct-ing attribute sentiment scores—as reviewers write only about a subset of attributes and remain silent on others. They develop …

Enabling Electric Storage Participation In Wholesale Markets: An Analysis Of Ferc Order No. 841, Glenn A. Smith

Master of Science in Energy Systems Management

This study has been performed to understand the potential impact that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) Order No. 841 will have on the adoption of energy storage resources (ESR). This analysis looked at: (1) the Order’s requirements, (2) FERC’s exercise of its authorized jurisdiction within the Order, and (3) actions taken by the Regional Transmission Organizations (RTO), Independent System Operators (ISO) and FERC to demonstrate compliance with the Order’s requirements:

Order No. 841 utilizes a participation model to ensure ESR’s are able to participate in wholesale electricity markets to an extent that is reflective of a resource’s physical and …

Can Conditional Cash Transfer Programs Reduce Intergenerational Poverty? A Comparative Analysis On Brazil's Bolsa Familia And Malawi's Zomba Cash Transfer Program, Lala Kumakura

Senior Theses

Conditional cash transfer programs have emerged all across Latin America, Africa, and Asia as an innovative approach to conventional forms of social assistance programs. This thesis explores the effectiveness of the program through case studies on Brazil’s Bolsa Família and Malawi’s Zomba Cash Transfer Program to examine whether the two programs have long-term impacts to reduce intergenerational poverty. I conclude that, while CCT programs are effective in meeting short-term objectives, further study must be conducted to determine whether they affect the cycle of intergenerational poverty in the long run.