Economics Commons^™

Economics Of Modern Plantation Forests In China - June 2019, Jintao Xu, Miaoying Shi

Forest Collaborative Research

Presentation focuses on eucalyptus forest development in Guangxi, China

How New York State Stole $20 Billion From School Children In New York City, John Yinger

Center for Policy Research

It’s Elementary is a series of essays on topics in education and education policy. The main focus is on education finance in New York State, but general research findings in education and education policy issues in several other states are also discussed. John Yinger, Professor of Economics and Public Administration at the Maxwell School, Syracuse University is the author of most of these essays, although a few are written by or co-authored with other scholars.

Exchange Rates, Oil Prices And World Stock Returns, Andre V. Mollick, Hamid Sakaki

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This paper examines responses of 14 major currency/USD pairs to two global factors (oil and world equity returns) from January 1999 to July 2017, a period comprising the global financial crisis and oil price boom and collapse. With global equity markets advancing, risk tolerance increases and oil and stock markets impact currencies under two methodologies: transmission of shocks and mean-variance approaches. Vector autoregressions (VARs) suggest large and statistically significant responses: commodity currencies strongly appreciate following positive oil price shocks and depreciate with positive global equity shocks. GARCH models provide similar qualitative results with coefficients typically larger for global equity returns …

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 3, Number 6, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton, Ana Gutierrez Zubiate

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Boolean Expected Utility, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yves Le Yaouanq

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We propose a multiple-prior model of preferences under ambiguity that provides a unified lens through which to understand different formalizations of ambiguity aversion, as well as context-dependent negative and positive ambiguity attitudes documented in experiments. This model, Boolean expected utility (BEU), represents the belief the decision-maker uses to evaluate any uncertain prospect as the outcome of a game between two conflicting forces, Pessimism and Optimism. We prove, first, that BEU provides a novel representation of the class of invariant biseparable preferences (Ghirardato, Maccheroni, and Marinacci, 2004). Second, BEU accommodates rich patterns of ambiguity attitudes, which we characterize in terms of …

Aggregation Of Diverse Information With Double Auction Trading Among Minimally-Intelligent Algorithmic Agents, Karim Jamal, Michael Maier, Shyam Sunder

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Information dissemination and aggregation are key economic functions of financial markets. How intelligent do traders have to be for the complex task of aggregating diverse information (i.e., approximate the predictions of the rational expectations equilibrium) in a competitive double auction market? An apparent ex-ante answer is: intelligent enough to perform the bootstrap operation necessary for the task—to somehow arrive at prices that are needed to generate those very prices. Constructing a path to such equilibrium through rational behavior has remained beyond what we know of human cognitive abilities. Yet, laboratory experiments report that profit motivated human traders are able to …

Greedy Or Grateful? Asking For More When Thanking Donors, K. Sudhir, Hortense Fong, Subroto Roy

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Charities often send annual “thank you letters” to express gratitude to donors, but seek to defray these costs by inviting additional donations or engagement. However, the additional asks may backfire if potential donors see the thank you message as “insincere” or “manipulative.” We test this trade-off by conducting a field experiment in cooperation with a leading charity in India. We find that an explicit ask for additional donations or even a request to follow the organization on Facebook reduces giving. However, these effects are not only heterogeneous, but asymmetric by past giving behavior. Recent, frequent, and higher monetary value donors …

Education Quality And Teaching Practices, Marina Bassi, Costas Meghir, Ana Reynoso

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Improving school quality with limited resources is a key issue of policy. It has been suggested that instructing teachers to follow specific practices together with tight monitoring of their activities may help improve outcomes in under-performing schools that usually serve poor populations. This paper uses an RCT to estimate the effectiveness of guided instruction methods as implemented in under-performing schools in Chile. The intervention improved performance substantially and by equal amounts for boys and girls. However, the effect is mainly accounted for by children from relatively higher income backgrounds and not for the most deprived. Based on the CLASS instrument …

Boolean Representations Of Preferences Under Ambiguity, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yves Le Yaouanq

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We propose a class of multiple-prior representations of preferences under ambiguity where the belief the decision-maker (DM) uses to evaluate an uncertain prospect is the outcome of a game played by two conflicting forces, Pessimism and Optimism. The model does not restrict the sign of the DM’s ambiguity attitude, and we show that it provides a unified framework through which to characterize different degrees of ambiguity aversion, as well as to represent context-dependent negative and positive ambiguity attitudes documented in experiments. We prove that our baseline representation, Boolean expected utility (BEU), yields a novel representation of the class of invariant …

Essays On Human Capital, Growth And Innovation: Political Economy Perspective, Di Sima

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

The dissertation explores the role of human capital, education, and political institutions in the process of economic and political development. The first chapter shows that economic development such as secondary school enrollment rates during the democratization period exerts long-lasting effects on growth, possibly by giving permanent birthmarks to newly minted democratic institutions. Specifically, democracies born in weak development tend to have weak institutions and slow growth, while in contrast, those with adequate development at the political transition time establish strong institutions and achieve faster growth. The second chapter explores the effect of curriculum control in schooling on national innovation and …

Institutional Management And Institutional Trading, Jingi Ha

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation consists of three papers in mutual fund governance or market microstructure that analyze the causal effect of board independence on mutual fund performance or the trading behavior of institutional trading and informed trading.

Chapter I studies how board independence affects fund performance, in relation to investment experience of independent directors. Using the SEC amendment in 2001 as an exogenous shock, I find that board independence does not improve or damage fund performance on average. When a fund board has independent directors with investment experience, however, it boosts fund performance. I also find that a fund manager is less …

Persuasion, Political Warfare, And Deterrence: Behavioral And Behaviorally Robust Models, William N. Caballero

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation examines game theory models in the context of persuasion and competition wherein decision-makers are not completely rational by considering two complementary threads of research. The first thread of research pertains to offensive and preemptively defensive behavioral models. Research in this thread makes three notable contributions. First, an offensive modeling framework is created to identify how an entity optimally influences a populace to take a desired course of action. Second, a defensive modeling framework is defined wherein a regulating entity takes action to bound the behavior of multiple adversaries simultaneously attempting to persuade a group of decision-makers. Third, an …

The Martingale Approach To Financial Mathematics, Jordan M. Rowley

Master's Theses

In this thesis, we will develop the fundamental properties of financial mathematics, with a focus on establishing meaningful connections between martingale theory, stochastic calculus, and measure-theoretic probability. We first consider a simple binomial model in discrete time, and assume the impossibility of earning a riskless profit, known as arbitrage. Under this no-arbitrage assumption alone, we stumble upon a strange new probability measure Q, according to which every risky asset is expected to grow as though it were a bond. As it turns out, this measure Q also gives the arbitrage-free pricing formula for every asset on our market. In …

Oil Price And Exchange Rate Nexus In Nigeria: Are There Asymmetries, Attahir B. Abubakar

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the dynamics in the relationship between oil price and exchange rate in Nigeria by utilizing monthly data spanning January 1986 to June 2018. It specifically determines asymmetries in the relationship between oil price and exchange rate and the effect of oil price shocks on exchange rate. Threshold Autoregressive (TAR), Momentum Threshold Autoregressive (MTAR) and Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) models were employed for the analysis. Findings of TAR and MTAR models confirm the absence of asymmetric cointegration, hence leading to the conclusion that in the case of Nigeria, there are no asymmetries in the relationship between oil price …

Testing For Single Bubble Episode In The Nigerian Stock Market: An Empirical Investigation, Jamilu Ilyasu, Ndayezhin D. Saba

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study evaluates a single bubble episode in the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) by utilizing monthly data on nominal and real all-share index (ASI) from January 2010 to December 2017. Analysis of data based on Sup Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) test for bubble detection suggests non-existence of a bubble in the NSE between 2010 and 2017. Though there is an indication of one explosive episode in September 2011 at which the DickeyFuller statistic lied above the critical values sequence line. However, it is not a bubble but a short deviation from trend. The study also estimates a time-varying long memory parameter, …

Imputation Of Missing Values In Economic And Financial Time Series Data Using Five Principal Component Analysis Approaches, Chisimkwuo John, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Charles C. Nworu

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study assesses five approaches for imputing missing values. The evaluated methods include Singular Value Decomposition Imputation (svdPCA), Bayesian imputation (bPCA), Probabilistic imputation (pPCA), Non-Linear Iterative Partial Least squares imputation (nipalsPCA) and Local Least Square imputation (llsPCA). A 5%, 10%, 15% and 20% missing data were created under a missing completely at random (MCAR) assumption using five (5) variables: Net Foreign Assets (NFA), Credit to Core Private Sector (CCP), Reserve Money (RM), Narrow Money (M1), Private Sector Demand Deposits (PSDD), from 1981 to 2019 using R-software. The five imputation methods were used to estimate the artificially generated missing values. The …

Impact Of Trade Openness On Economic Growth Among Ecowas Countries: 1975-2017, Victor U. Ijirshar

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study assesses the impact of trade openness on economic growth among ECOWAS countries using secondary data from 1975 to 2017. The study uses non-stationary heterogeneous dynamic panel models through the application of Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and Mean Group (MG) estimators since time dimension was more than cross-sections. Using the Hausman test, PMG estimator was preferred. Results show that trade openness has positive effects on growth in ECOWAS countries in the long-run but mixed effects in the short-run. The study therefore recommends that ECOWAS member countries improve cooperation among economic actors by using export consortia so as to help …

Is The Cfa Franc Prone To Speculative Attacks Or A Contagion Effect: A Stochastic-Markov Transition Analysis For Cameroon, Louis Sevitenyi Nkwatoh Mr

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The study employs the Markovian processs on annual nominal effective exchange rate of CFA Franc spanning 1975 to 2017 to examine whether the CFA franc is prone to speculative attacks or a contagion effect. The findings reveal that the expected duration for the CFA Franc to be undervalued is twice higher than for it to be overvalued. This validates the contagion effect of a Euro crisis on the CFA Franc. Though the level of growth increased significantly during the undervaluation era, the level of uncertainty remains equally high. The findings confirm that exchange rate devaluation influences the expectations of private …

Assessing Contingent Convertible Bonds For Bank Recapitalization In Nigeria, Kabir Katata

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study estimates the parameters of credit derivatives, equity derivatives and structural models for bank recapitalisation in Nigeria by employing contingent convertibles (CoCos) and using the Nigeria Treasury Bill rate for 2009 as the risk-free rate, estimated recapitalisation requirements for the banks as at 2009 and relevant banks’ share prices for 2008 and 2009. The study finds the structural approach as the preferred model for CoCo pricing, as it reported the least pricing errors and also builds asset values of the banks from publicly-available quoted stock prices as well as deposit components of bank’s balance sheet information. The study also …

Income Inequality In Nevada And The Southwest Megapolitan Triangle, Yanneli Llamas, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown

Economic Development & Workforce

This Fact Sheet highlights income inequality in Nevada at both the county and metropolitan level. The Tables that follow report disparities in income across 16 Nevada counties, as well as 9 metropolitan areas in the state, as identified by the Economic Policy Institute. To offer a complete comparison, we also present income disparities between the components of the Southwest Megapolitan Triangle: Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV; Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA; and Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ.

Marginal Cost Of Risk-Based Capital And Risk-Taking, Tao Chen, Jing Rong Goh, Shinichi Kamiya, Pingyi Lou

Research Collection School Of Economics

We explore the impact of capital adequacy requirements on financial institutions' risk-taking behavior from a novel perspective. Specifically, we show that an important feature of the risk-based capital (RBC) system a built-in diversification benefit in aggregating risk categories induces moral hazard. We find that insurers that face lower marginal RBC costs of fixed-income (FI) investment tend to purchase riskier Fl securities. This relationship holds even when lower marginal RBC costs result from increased risk in other risk categories, which is an unintended consequence of the RBC's square root rule. Using Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy as exogenous shocks to the RBC …

Spending Where It Matters: Exploring The Relationship Between Institutional Expenditures And Student Retention Rates At The California State University, Matias Farre

Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations

It is anticipated that there will be a shortage of 1.1 million college-educated workers in California by 2030 (Johnson, Bohn, & Cuellar Mejia, 2016). Within this context, the California State University (CSU) is the principal source of skilled workers in the state, producing more career-ready candidates than any other single institution (“California State University 2018 Fact Book“, n.d.).

This study examined the relationship between student retention rates and institutional expenditures across the different functional categories of instruction, student services, academic support, and instructional support at the CSU. With the exception of student grants and scholarships, these selected expenditures represent the …

Us And The Cold War In Latin America, Thomas Field

Publications

The Cold War in Latin America had marked consequences for the region’s political and economic evolution. From the origins of US fears of Latin American Communism in the early 20th century to the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, regional actors played central roles in the drama. Seeking to maximize economic benefit while maintaining independence with regard to foreign policy, Latin Americans employed an eclectic combination of liberal and anti-imperialist discourses, balancing frequent calls for anti-Communist hemispheric unity with periodic diplomatic entreaties to the Soviet bloc and the nonaligned Third World. Meanwhile, US Cold War policies toward …

Three Essays On Food Insecurity In Nigeria, Pimam Manzi Pidalatan

Dissertations

Households experience multiple shocks, among which health-related and agricultural-related shocks are the most frequent shocks in developing economies. Households’ exposure to shocks contributes more to the risk of being food insecure than a poor resource endowment (Azeem et al., 2016). Moreover, in low-income countries about 3.5 million mothers and children under the age of five die every year because they are undernourished FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP AND WHO 2017). Sub-Sahara Africa is the region with the highest prevalence of undernourished people (22 percent) and stunted children (30 percent) (FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP AND WHO 2017). Three of the seventeen Sustainable …

Three Essays On Liquidity Shocks And Their Implication For Asset Pricing And Valuation Models, Nardos M. Beyene

Dissertations

The main objective of my three essays is to incorporate liquidity shocks and the linkages between the liquidity condition of financial markets into asset pricing and valuation models. The first essay focuses on the liquidity adjusted capital asset pricing model, while the second and the third essays examine the popular asset valuation model called the Fed model.

The first essay investigates the pricing of the commonality risk in the U.S. stock market by using a more comprehensive market illiquidity measure that can reflect the liquidity condition of different asset markets. This measure is given by the yield difference between commercial …

Essays In The Application Of Machine Learning In Development Economics, Dweepobotee Brahma

Dissertations

This dissertation comprises four essays which apply Machine Learning (ML) techniques to examine India’s progress towards meeting several child-health targets under United Nation’s “Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 2030”. The application of novel ML techniques unmasks certain detailed empirical aspects of the road to meeting specific indicators of SDG - child mortality, malnutrition, immunization coverage and health-expenses.

The first essay employs multiple parametric and non-parametric Machine Learning (ML) techniques (LASSO, Classification Random Forest, Boosted Logistic Regression, Boosted Classification Trees) to build predictive models for the incidences of neonatal and infant mortality. A large national level household survey dataset is used. All …

Tax Uncertainty And Business Activity, Jungho Lee, Jianhuan Xu

Research Collection School Of Economics

We investigate the extent to which uncertainties about tax policies affect business activities. We develop a statewide tax-uncertainty measure (TU measure) and show that it captures state corporate tax uncertainty. By comparing adjacent counties across state borders, we show that increasing tax uncertainty by one standard deviation (a 30% increase in the TU measure) leads to a 0.17% point per-year decrease in the growth rate of establishments over two years. The result holds after conducting a variety of robustness checks and is not likely to be driven by general state-policy uncertainties.

The Aging Of A Young Nation: Population Aging In Singapore, Rahul Malhotra, Andre M. Muller, Su Aw, Gerald Choon Huat Koh, Yin-Leng Theng, Stephen James Hoskins, Chek Hooi Wong, Chunyan Miao, Wee-Shiong Lim, Chetna Malhotra, Angelique Chan

Research Collection School Of Economics

The juxtaposition of a young city-state showing relative maturity as a rapidly aging society suffuses the population aging narrative in Singapore and places the “little red dot” on the spotlight of international aging. We first describe population aging in Singapore, including the characteristic events that shaped this demographic transition. We then detail the health care and socioeconomic ramifications of the rapid and significant shift to an aging society, followed by an overview of the main aging research areas in Singapore, including selected population-based data sets and the main thrust of leading aging research centers/institutes. After presenting established aging policies and …

Global Value Chains And The Cptpp, Pao-Li Chang, Tran Bao Phuong Nguyen

Research Collection School Of Economics

The CPTPP, or the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, is an example of a “mega-regional” free trade agreement, whose provisions on the rules of origin and trade facilitation can have potentially large impacts on the CPTPP-wide supply chains. In this paper, we investigate whether the CPTPP members are key upstream and downstream trade partners to each other in the global value chains. We develop formulas of bilateral upstreamness and downstreamness, based on the gross-export decomposition framework of Koopman, Wang and Wei (2014) and Borin and Mancini (2017). We demonstrate how the decomposition of gross exports can be used …

A Smoothed Q-Learning Algorithm For Estimating Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regime, Yanqin Fan, Ming He, Liangjun Su, Xiao-Hua Zhou

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we propose a smoothed Q-learning algorithm for estimating optimal dynamic treatment regimes. In contrast to the Q-learning algorithm in which non-regular inference is involved, we show that under assumptions adopted in this paper, the proposed smoothed Q-learning estimator is asymptotically normally distributed even when the Q-learning estimator is not and its asymptotic variance can be consistently estimated. As a result, inference based on the smoothed Q-learning estimator is standard. We derive the optimal smoothing parameter and propose a data-driven method for estimating it. The finite sample properties of the smoothed Q-learning estimator are studied and compared with …